Group 1 - The international gold price experienced a slight decline due to investors remaining cautious ahead of the U.S. employment data release, with daily fluctuations under $20 [1] - The U.S. dollar regained buying interest, reversing its previous decline caused by concerns over U.S. tariffs and Trump's "big and beautiful plan," which limited the upward potential for gold prices [1] - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming U.S. ADP private sector employment data and the June non-farm payroll data, which will provide more insights into labor market conditions [3] Group 2 - The current trend for gold remains stable, with limited downside movement, and the market is still leaning towards a bullish outlook despite smaller fluctuations compared to the previous day [5] - A support level is identified around 3325, with a target range set between 3350-3355 for potential upward movement [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD exchange rate has shown significant movement, with the Euro reaching a new high of 1.1830 before a slight decline, influenced by various economic and geopolitical factors [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde emphasized the need for vigilance regarding inflation, as the Euro ended an eight-day rally [3]. - The U.S. dollar rebounded from previous lows following the Senate's approval of President Trump's comprehensive tax reform, which affected the Euro's upward momentum [3]. Geopolitical Factors - Recent geopolitical tensions have eased, contributing to a stronger interest in risk assets, thereby supporting the Euro and other risk-related currencies [5]. - Investors remain cautious about potential changes in Washington's trade stance, especially with the U.S. tariff suspension deadline approaching on July 9 [6]. Central Bank Policies - The divergence in policies between the ECB and the Federal Reserve continues, with the Fed maintaining interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% while adjusting inflation and unemployment forecasts due to tariff-related cost pressures [7][8]. - The ECB recently lowered its deposit rate to 2.00%, with Lagarde indicating that further easing would depend on a significant deterioration in external demand [8]. Market Sentiment - Speculators have increased their net long positions in the Euro, reaching the highest level since January 2024, while commercial participants have raised their net short positions [9]. - The total open interest in Euro contracts has also risen to approximately 762.6K, marking a two-week high [9]. Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels are identified at the 2025 high of 1.1829, with potential targets at the September 2018 high of 1.1815 and the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [10]. - Initial support is noted at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1403, followed by lower support levels [10]. Outlook - The Euro's upward trend is expected to continue unless geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks occur, driven by reduced risk aversion and growing confidence in potential Fed policy easing [12].

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Switzerland's economic growth rate to be 1.2% in 2026, highlighting significant risks, particularly external ones [1] Economic Outlook - Switzerland's economy is facing major risks, especially from external factors such as geopolitical tensions, fluctuations in energy prices, trade uncertainties, and tariffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, coupled with U.S. involvement, has led to increased tensions, particularly regarding the potential closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which could have significant implications for global energy markets. Group 1: Oil Supply Impact - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil transport route, with approximately 20 million barrels of oil passing through daily, accounting for 30% of global seaborne oil trade and about 20% of global oil liquid consumption. A closure could result in a supply reduction of over 18 million barrels per day, nearly a 20% drop in global supply, potentially driving oil prices to $100 per barrel [3][4][6]. Group 2: LNG Trade Disruption - The Strait is also vital for liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, with around 95% of LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE relying on this route. A closure could lead to a 20% decrease in global LNG supply, significantly impacting energy markets in Europe and Asia, particularly raising prices in these regions [3][4]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Risks - Closing the Strait would likely trigger a global energy crisis, exacerbating geopolitical tensions. The economies of the U.S. and Europe heavily depend on Middle Eastern oil imports, and a blockage could lead to soaring energy prices and inflation, threatening economic stability, especially in Europe, which is already facing energy supply challenges due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4][6]. Group 4: Limitations of Alternative Routes - While Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some pipelines that bypass the Strait, their combined nominal capacity is only 6.7 million barrels per day, with 4.3 million barrels per day currently idle. This is insufficient to meet the daily demand of 17 million barrels, indicating that alternative routes cannot adequately mitigate the impact of a closure [6][7]. Group 5: Military and Energy Security Risks - Iran's threat to close the Strait could provoke military conflict with the U.S., which has deployed significant military resources in the region to ensure the passage remains open. Iran's growing military capabilities pose a risk of interference in the Strait, potentially escalating international tensions and complicating regional security [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian government ordered Hikvision Canada to cease operations citing "national security" concerns, which the company strongly opposes, claiming the decision lacks factual basis and transparency [2][3] Group 1: Company Response - Hikvision Canada expressed strong opposition to the Canadian government's decision, stating that the accusations regarding "national security" are unfounded [2] - The company believes the decision is influenced by geopolitical tensions and biases against Chinese enterprises rather than genuine cybersecurity assessments [2] - Since its establishment in 2014, Hikvision Canada has contributed to the Canadian economy by creating thousands of jobs and complying with strict safety standards and applicable laws [2] Group 2: Government Interaction - Hikvision Canada claims it cooperated fully with government departments during the review process, providing timely and comprehensive responses along with detailed documentation [2] - Despite this cooperation, the Canadian government made its decision without providing evidence or responding to the facts presented by the company [2] Group 3: Diplomatic Response - The Chinese Embassy in Canada criticized the Canadian government's actions, stating they severely harm the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises and disrupt normal economic cooperation between China and Canada [3] - China urged Canada to stop politicizing economic issues and to provide a fair and non-discriminatory environment for Chinese companies [3] - The Chinese government indicated it would take necessary measures to protect the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian government has ordered Hikvision Canada Ltd. to cease operations in Canada, citing national security concerns, which has drawn strong opposition from China [1][3][5]. Group 1: Government Actions - Canadian Minister of Industry, Mélanie Joly, announced that the government determined Hikvision's continued operations would harm national security after a multi-step review of information from security and intelligence agencies [3]. - The Canadian government will prohibit its agencies from procuring Hikvision products and will review existing assets to ensure no legacy products are used in the future [3]. - The order does not apply to Hikvision's operations outside Canada, but Canadians are encouraged to make their own judgments regarding the decision [3]. Group 2: Company Background - Hikvision, founded in 2001 and listed in 2010, is recognized as the world's largest video surveillance equipment manufacturer, focusing on technological innovation [3]. - The company aims to integrate IoT, artificial intelligence, and big data technologies across various industries, with operations in over 180 countries and regions [3]. Group 3: Company Response - Hikvision Canada Ltd. expressed strong opposition to the Canadian government's decision, stating it lacks factual basis, procedural fairness, and transparency [4]. - The company criticized the Canadian government for not evaluating its technology based on cybersecurity standards, suggesting that the decision reflects broader geopolitical tensions and biases against Chinese firms [5]. - Hikvision urged the Canadian government to act based on facts rather than prejudice, advocating for a fair and transparent environment for all businesses and investors [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in 2025 are more likely to be driven by inflation rather than unemployment rates, as the labor market may not directly lead to rising unemployment due to immigration policies affecting labor growth [2][3] - The U.S. economy is expected to enter the second half of 2025 on an unstable foundation, with the first quarter's GDP contraction exceeding initial estimates and a low-quality rebound in the second quarter influenced by reduced trade deficits and cautious consumer and business spending [2][3] - The upcoming U.S. core PCE price index is viewed as a critical reference for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with weak performance potentially reinforcing a dovish stance and increasing downward pressure on the dollar [1][2] Group 2 - If the U.S. adopts more closed trade policies, the Eurozone could become the largest economy outside the U.S., attracting more investment interest towards the Euro [2] - Geopolitical tensions easing have nearly completely offset the temporary support the dollar received as a safe-haven asset, while the Euro is expected to benefit from ongoing pessimism surrounding the dollar [2] - Despite $250 billion to $300 billion in tariff revenues, the rising debt levels in the U.S. are unlikely to be alleviated in the short term, as the government is not expected to implement significant tax increases or spending cuts [3]

Group 1 - France's June CPI rose for the first time this year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, surpassing expectations [1] - Service inflation accelerated to 2.4%, while food inflation slightly increased to 1.4%, and energy prices saw a narrower decline of 6.9% [1] - The rise in inflation is attributed to geopolitical tensions affecting prices, particularly in the Middle East, impacting major economies in the Eurozone [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank (ECB) completed its eighth rate cut since June last year, as inflation had been cooling earlier in the year [2] - ECB officials expressed satisfaction with the current trajectory of consumer prices, which have decreased from record highs to just below the 2% target [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation and U.S. trade policies adds complexity to the economic outlook, prompting the ECB to maintain flexibility in its monetary policy [2]

Group 1 - As of June 25, the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, held 953.39 tons, a decrease of 2.29 tons from the previous trading day [2] - On June 25, spot gold slightly rebounded, fluctuating around $3,330, with a daily low of $3,312.03 and closing at $3,332.02, an increase of $9.09 or 0.27% [2] - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to improved risk sentiment, which has suppressed gold prices; however, renewed tensions could drive prices higher [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that many paths are possible regarding interest rate cuts, suggesting that inflation may not be as strong as expected [3] - Economic data in the coming months will be crucial for the gold market; weak inflation or a deteriorating labor market could lead to earlier or larger rate cuts than anticipated [3] - Current expectations from federal funds futures traders indicate a cumulative rate cut of 60 basis points by 2025, with the first cut likely in September [3] Group 3 - Technically, gold prices are holding above the critical 50-day moving average support level around $3,325, with the 14-day RSI struggling near the midpoint [3] - Short-term support levels for gold are at $3,300 and the June 24 low of $3,295; a break below these levels could trigger further declines, with the next support at the May 29 low of $3,245 [3] - For bullish sentiment, reclaiming the 21-day moving average at $3,350 is crucial for a sustained recovery, with the next resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci level around $3,380 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) anticipates a slowdown in economic growth due to escalating global trade tensions, deteriorating financial market sentiment, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] Economic Growth Projections - The ECB projects that the Eurozone economy will grow by 0.9% in 2023, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027 [1] Inflation Outlook - The inflation outlook for the Eurozone is more uncertain than in the past, with global trade frictions presenting both upside and downside risks [1] Risks Associated with Global Trade - Upside risks include the fragmentation of global supply chains, while downside risks involve a decline in demand for Eurozone export products [1]