本文刊载于《中国科学院院刊》2025年第11期专题"商业航天高质量发展战略研究" 董梦如1,2,3 黄朝峰1,2,3* 杨柠屹1 姚育1 秦娅风4 3 上海交通大学 行业研究院 4 大连理工大学 经济管理学院 扩展商业航天市场应用场景是推动航天产业转型升级、实现航天强国战略目标的必然要求。当前，我国商业航天发展正处在从技术突破向市场拓展的关键转 型期，但仍然存在民营企业参与不够、消费级市场渗透偏低、国际市场竞争力不足等问题，尚未形成可持续的良性商业闭环。文章通过分析国内外商业航天 市场应用场景现状，从供给侧、需求侧和环境侧剖析技术进步、市场需求与政策支撑等因素对应用场景扩展的驱动作用。进一步地，基于实地调研数据，识 别我国商业航天在发射服务、卫星应用和太空经济3个重要场景面临的问题，研判扩展商业航天市场急需布局的12个应用场景清单，并结合目前问题挑战与 未来发展需求提出相应对策建议。 作为战略性新兴产业的重要组成部分，商业航天产业在技术进步及市场需求提升推动下迅速发展，展现出巨大的市场潜力与社会价值，市场应用场景日益多 元化和规模化。近年来，我国政府对商业航天发展的重视程度持续提升，出台了多项重要举措以加速商 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid advancements in technology expected by 2026, including emotional AI, wearable health devices, renewable energy innovations, and more, which are set to transform daily life and work environments [1]. Group 1: Emotional AI and Personalization - Emotional AI assistants are evolving beyond traditional voice assistants like Siri and Alexa, becoming capable of understanding human emotions through tone and expression, thus providing personalized support [2]. - These AI systems are increasingly being integrated into mental health support and personal development, marking a significant shift in the role of technology in daily life [2]. Group 2: Wearable Health Technology - Next-generation wearable devices are anticipated to monitor vital health metrics in real-time, shifting healthcare from reactive to proactive approaches [3]. - Innovations such as smart skin patches and AI watches are expected to provide early warnings for health risks, contributing to personalized health management [3]. Group 3: Renewable Energy Innovations - New night-time solar panels that capture infrared radiation are expected to overcome previous limitations of solar energy, enabling continuous power supply even in darkness [4]. - Advances in lithium-sulfur and solid-state battery technologies are projected to enhance energy storage, significantly improving electric vehicle performance and promoting sustainable transportation [4]. Group 4: Brain-Computer Interfaces - Brain-computer interface technology is moving from medical applications to everyday use, allowing users to control devices through thought, which could revolutionize rehabilitation and enhance daily life [6]. - This technology is expected to play a role in various fields, including prosthetics and augmented reality [6]. Group 5: Space Economy - The space economy is poised for growth, with reduced costs for suborbital flights and the emergence of zero-gravity hotels, indicating a new era of space exploration and commercial opportunities [7]. - Companies are exploring asteroid mining, suggesting a potential new frontier for resource acquisition [7]. Group 6: AI in Education - AI-driven personalized education is set to replace standardized teaching methods, adapting to individual learning styles and enhancing engagement for both children and adults [8]. - This transformation in education is expected to significantly impact workforce adaptability in response to industry changes [8]. Group 7: Quantum Computing - Quantum computing is anticipated to become practical by 2026, potentially solving complex problems beyond the capabilities of classical computers [9]. - Applications in pharmaceuticals and supply chain optimization could drastically reduce costs and timeframes in various industries [9]. Group 8: Smart Cities - The integration of AI and IoT technologies is expected to create smarter cities, improving traffic management, waste collection, and security systems [10]. - These advancements aim to enhance urban living by making cities cleaner, safer, and more efficient [10]. Group 9: Robotics - Robotics technology is expected to permeate everyday life, with applications in kitchens, construction, and elder care, making robots an integral part of daily routines [11]. - The decreasing costs and advancements in AI are driving this trend, leading to widespread adoption of robotic solutions [11]. Group 10: Bioprinting - The bioprinting field is projected to experience significant advancements, enabling the creation of disease models and personalized medical treatments [12]. - This technology could revolutionize organ transplantation and food production, addressing future challenges in healthcare and food security [12].

今天，市场关注的朱雀三号终于发射升空。 从结果来看，飞行任务完成，火箭二级进入预定轨道。 在大家关注的可回收方面，在火箭一级回收验证过程中发生异常燃烧，未能实现在回收场坪的软着 陆，回收试验失败。 可回收火箭有多重要？达哥简单说一说。 商业航天的最大瓶颈是火箭成本。如果能实现火箭可回收，那么意味着商业航天的成本都会大幅下 降。 有机构表示，一旦可回收发射技术实现规模化应用，有望将发射成本下降30%-50%。 可回收发射技术实现后，后续的重点是高频复用、成本降到极致。只要做到这两点，那么，一个低 成本、高频次、规模化的中国太空时代正在来临，未来太空经济版图也将发生重大变化。 马斯克旗下的星链，大家都熟知。到目前为止，星链卫星发射总数超过10000颗，其中在轨正常运 行的卫星超过8000颗。 目前，上证指数下方有四个短期支撑位，一是11月28日的低点3856点，二是11月24日反弹以来回撤 61.8%的3853点，三是11月24日反弹以来回撤80.9%的3835点，四是11月24日低点3816点。 在大国科技竞争加剧的背景下，谁也不想头顶上有这么多的外国卫星"覆盖"自己的国家。此外，卫 星所处的太空资源也是有限的 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid advancements in technology expected by 2026, including emotional AI, wearable health devices, renewable energy innovations, and more, which are set to transform daily life and work environments. Group 1: Emotional AI - The next generation of emotional AI assistants is surpassing traditional ones like Siri and Alexa by understanding human emotions through tone, expression, and wording, providing personalized relaxation recommendations and enhancing customer care [2] - Emotional AI is becoming a partner in daily life, playing a significant role in mental health support and personal growth [2] Group 2: Wearable Devices - By 2026, wearable devices are expected to evolve into "life guardians," with smart skin patches monitoring hydration, stress hormones, and nutrition levels, while AI watches can predict heart disease risks days in advance [3] - These innovations are shifting healthcare from reactive treatment to proactive prevention [3] Group 3: Renewable Energy - New night-time solar panels will capture infrared radiation, allowing for continuous power supply even in darkness, while advancements in lithium-sulfur and solid-state battery technologies will enhance energy storage for electric vehicles [4] - 2026 may mark a historical turning point for the decline of fossil fuels as the dominant energy source [5] Group 4: Brain-Computer Interfaces - Brain-computer interface technology is moving from medical applications to everyday use, enabling paralyzed patients to control devices with their thoughts and enhancing work efficiency through instant data retrieval [6] - By 2026, these interfaces will be integrated into daily life, impacting prosthetics, rehabilitation, and augmented reality experiences [6] Group 5: Space Economy - The space economy is set to flourish, with suborbital flight prices dropping below $100,000 and companies developing zero-gravity hotels, indicating a new era of space exploration and commercialization [7] Group 6: AI in Education - AI-driven personalized education is emerging, adapting courses to individual learning styles and helping adults with career transitions, fundamentally reshaping educational approaches [9] Group 7: Quantum Computing - Quantum computing is expected to solve complex problems beyond the capabilities of classical computers, significantly reducing drug development timelines and optimizing supply chains [10] Group 8: Smart Cities - Cities will become smarter by 2026, with AI traffic systems alleviating congestion, IoT-enabled waste management, and predictive security systems enhancing urban living [11] Group 9: Robotics - Robotics will become ubiquitous in households and various work environments, with cooking robots, construction robots, and personal care robots transforming daily tasks [12][13] Group 10: Bioprinting - The bioprinting field is anticipated to achieve significant advancements, enabling the creation of disease models, personalized medicine, and potentially addressing organ donation shortages [14]

Core Viewpoint - The space economy is emerging as a new frontier for global competition, with significant opportunities and challenges in satellite internet and remote sensing infrastructure development [1] Group 1: Industry Gaps and Opportunities - There is a significant gap between China and the US in the launch vehicle sector, with US rocket carrying capacity being approximately ten times that of China, and commercial launches accounting for over 80% in the US compared to single-digit percentages in China [2] - The large gap presents a vast space for catching up, with predictions that within three years, the launch costs in China could approach those of SpaceX, and within five years, potentially be lower than SpaceX's Falcon 9 [2] - In the laser communication terminal field, the US has over 10,000 in-orbit terminals with commercial applications, while China's industry is in a critical breakthrough phase from technology verification to mass production [2] Group 2: Cost Reduction Strategies - Reducing costs is seen as crucial for the development of the space economy, with companies aiming to halve rocket costs within three years and lower per-kilogram launch prices below foreign counterparts within five years [4] - Companies are focusing on design optimization, supply chain collaboration, and reusable technologies to achieve cost reductions [4] - The integration of modular production and batch assembly is expected to be a significant direction for long-term cost reduction in laser communication terminal manufacturing [4] Group 3: Need for Patient Capital - The valuation of leading commercial rocket companies has reached between 15 billion to 20 billion yuan, highlighting the need for better access to secondary market financing to share in the growth of the commercial space sector [6] - Long-term capital support is essential for the growth of commercial space enterprises, which require three to five years or more for technology development and capacity realization [6] - A more inclusive and encouraging policy environment is needed to allow commercial space companies to participate in large national projects, creating strong market incentives [6]

Group 1 - The core idea revolves around the competition between China and the US in the space computing sector, with Beijing planning to build a space data center with over 1,000 megawatts capacity in three phases [2] - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations around the 4,000-point mark, reminiscent of 2015, with a historical 67.6% probability of A-shares rising in November over the past 34 years [2] - The current market scenario is characterized as an "index bull market, individual stock bear market," where only 60% of stocks are rising compared to 80% in 2020 [2] Group 2 - November is a critical month for A-shares, akin to Thanksgiving on Wall Street, where institutional investors engage in strategic maneuvers to boost or protect their year-end performance [2] - The comparison of two stocks illustrates the importance of following institutional capital flows, as one stock sees significant inflows while the other remains stagnant [5][7] - Historical breakthroughs in technology often stem from seemingly improbable events, suggesting that the space data center initiative could lead to significant advancements in the future [10][12] Group 3 - Investment in cutting-edge technologies like space data centers and quantum computing is associated with high volatility, recommending a cautious approach with no more than 10% of the portfolio allocated to such ventures [10] - Ordinary investors are advised to be wary of index performance, as not all components perform equally well, echoing Warren Buffett's sentiment about market realities [11] - Monitoring capital flows is emphasized as a more reliable indicator than technical metrics, alongside the use of quantitative tools available on various platforms [11]

Core Insights - The establishment of the Commercial Space Administration marks a significant shift in China's space industry from "policy-driven" to "ecological-driven" development, providing a clear growth path for the 2.5 trillion market and supporting 600 commercial space enterprises [4][5][20]. Industry Overview - The commercial space sector in China has seen a dramatic transformation, with the market size growing from less than 50 billion in 2014 to 1.2 trillion in 2024, and projected to reach 4.8 trillion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 66% [10][28]. - The number of private enterprises in the space sector surged from single digits in 2015 to 160 by 2019, indicating a robust increase in private sector participation [17]. Policy Developments - Key policies have been introduced since 2014 to encourage private investment in the space sector, culminating in the 2019 guidelines that equalized the status of commercial and national space activities [12][16]. - The recent action plan for 2025-2027 aims to open national testing facilities to private companies, with a target of 70% accessibility by 2027, significantly reducing operational costs for private firms [20][21]. Financial Trends - In 2024, commercial space financing reached 14.02 billion, nearly tripling from 2023, with a notable increase in large investment deals [24]. - The establishment of a national commercial space development fund, estimated at 50-80 billion, aims to catalyze an investment scale of 200-300 billion, particularly in long-term projects like reusable rockets [24][25]. Market Segmentation - The commercial space market is diversifying, with significant growth in satellite applications (6.6 trillion in 2024) and emerging sectors like space tourism and in-orbit manufacturing, which are expected to grow at rates exceeding 500% [28][29]. - The rocket manufacturing segment has evolved into a streamlined production process, with the number of launches increasing from 8 in 2020 to 34 in 2024, achieving a success rate of 95% [36]. Technological Advancements - The industry is witnessing a shift towards cost-effective production methods, with the cost of launching satellites decreasing significantly due to mass production techniques [36]. - Innovations in materials, such as high-temperature alloys and aerospace-grade carbon fiber, are driving profitability, with some companies reporting gross margins exceeding 50% [32][33]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment is intensifying, with private companies capturing a significant share of the launch services market, accounting for 38% of domestic revenue in 2024 [36]. - The opening of national facilities and the influx of private capital are expected to enhance China's competitiveness in the global space market, which currently holds an 8% share [41].

Core Insights - The number of operational satellites has rapidly increased from 5,000 to 12,000 in less than five years, indicating a significant acceleration in space infrastructure development [1] - The space industry is experiencing a technological revolution driven by advancements in aerospace technology and artificial intelligence, characterized by low-cost, large-scale, and constellation-based satellite deployment [1][3] - The global space economy is projected to grow from $630 billion in 2023 to $1.8 trillion by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9% [3] Industry Developments - The concept of "Moore's Law in Space" suggests that satellite manufacturing is becoming faster, more powerful, and cheaper, similar to advancements in computer chips [1] - The demand for satellite broadband is expected to surge, particularly with the advent of direct satellite-to-mobile communication, marking a critical step towards mainstream adoption of satellite communication [3][4] - New application scenarios are emerging, including space supercomputing, space sensing, and space logistics, driven by the increasing capabilities of satellite infrastructure [4] Company Progress - The company has successfully launched 35 self-developed satellites, including the world's first high-frequency low-orbit millimeter-wave satellite [4] - The company is expanding internationally, collaborating with local operators in countries like Thailand and engaging in partnerships in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia to promote low-orbit satellite communication technologies [4] - The capital market has shown strong support for the commercial space industry, with approximately 2,200 space companies raising a total of $357.8 billion from 2009 to Q2 2025 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The National Space Administration of China has issued an action plan for the high-quality and safe development of commercial space from 2025 to 2027, aiming to achieve significant advancements in the industry by 2027 [1] Group 1: Action Plan Overview - The action plan outlines 22 key measures across five areas: enhancing innovation, efficient resource utilization, promoting industry growth, improving industry management services, and strengthening safety regulation [1][3] - The plan is a response to both domestic and international developments, emphasizing the need for China to keep pace with global commercial space advancements, particularly those led by companies like SpaceX [1][3] Group 2: Industry Development and Market Impact - The establishment of a new Commercial Space Department within the National Defense Science and Technology Industry Bureau aims to enhance policy coordination and support for the commercial space sector [2] - The commercial space market in China is projected to grow from approximately 0.38 trillion yuan in 2015 to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of about 22% [8] - The action plan is expected to open up a trillion-yuan market space, attracting significant capital and talent into the sector [6][8] Group 3: Key Measures for High-Quality Development - The plan includes competitive opening of national research projects to commercial entities, promoting the commercialization of technological achievements, and establishing technology transfer centers [3][4] - It encourages the development of new business models in areas such as space resource utilization, space tourism, and space biotechnology [4][6] Group 4: Future Prospects and Industry Dynamics - The action plan is seen as a pivotal moment for China's commercial space sector, marking a transition from spontaneous exploration to a more structured and guided development approach [4][7] - The collaboration between state-owned enterprises and commercial entities is expected to deepen, leading to more partnerships where state entities provide platforms and commercial firms offer payloads or services [7] - The plan is anticipated to accelerate industry consolidation, with a focus on high-quality and safe practices, potentially eliminating weaker players and concentrating resources among leading firms [7]

Core Viewpoint - Dongzhu Ecology is facing severe financial distress, with a significant lawsuit and multiple undisclosed legal cases threatening its viability [1][2] Financial Situation - Dongzhu Ecology has been sued for a total of 5.52 billion yuan, which is more than double its total revenue of 2.58 billion yuan for the first three quarters of the year [1] - The company reported a loss of 315 million yuan in 2023, with projected losses doubling to 630 million yuan in 2024 [1] - Revenue has plummeted from over 800 million yuan to 376 million yuan, a decline of more than 54.6% [1] Legal Issues - The lawsuit includes claims for principal amounts of 1.66 billion yuan and 1.91 billion yuan, along with various financial fees totaling over 1.3 billion yuan [1] - Dongzhu Ecology has acknowledged 16 additional undisclosed lawsuits with a cumulative amount of 630 million yuan, indicating total debts exceeding its annual revenue [1] Strategic Moves - Despite its financial troubles, Dongzhu Ecology plans to acquire 89.49% of a satellite technology company, Kairuixingtong, through a combination of stock issuance and cash [1] - This strategic shift towards satellite communication and space information technology is viewed as a desperate attempt to pivot from its core business of environmental protection [1][2] Market Perception - The market may be skeptical about the feasibility of a struggling company transitioning into the high-tech satellite industry, raising concerns about investor confidence [2] - The company's shift from traditional environmental projects to the "space economy" is perceived as a survival tactic rather than a genuine strategic transformation [2]