Core Insights - The Chinese foldable smartphone market has transitioned from rapid growth to rational expansion, with shipments expected to reach approximately 9.17 million units in 2024, reflecting a significant slowdown in growth to 30.8% year-on-year. However, a recovery is anticipated in Q1 2025 with shipments of 2.84 million units, marking a 53.1% year-on-year increase [2][16] - Vivo's X Fold5 represents a pivotal moment in the foldable smartphone market, showcasing "extreme innovation" and setting a new standard as the lightest foldable smartphone globally at 217 grams, surpassing competitors like the iPhone 15 Pro Max [5][6] - The launch of the X Fold5 signifies the entry of foldable smartphones into an "ecological competition" era, aiming to redefine the high-end foldable smartphone market by breaking down barriers between ecosystems, including Apple [5][10] Product Evolution - The evolution from Vivo X Fold3 to X Fold5 highlights a significant reduction in weight while enhancing functionality, with the X Fold5 being 2 grams lighter than its predecessor and featuring the largest battery capacity in a foldable smartphone at an equivalent of 6000mAh [6][8] - The X Fold5 incorporates advanced battery technology, including a second-generation semi-solid-state battery with a silicon content of 12%, improving energy density by 13% at room temperature and 20% at low temperatures [6][9] - The device also excels in photography, featuring a Zeiss super telephoto lens and AI-enhanced image quality, establishing itself as the "strongest periscope telephoto" in the foldable category [8] Reliability and User Experience - The X Fold5 addresses user concerns regarding weight and reliability, achieving IPX8 and IPX9 water resistance ratings and IP5X dust resistance, allowing for use in various challenging environments [9][21] - The device's design reflects a significant leap from "usable" to "user-friendly," with innovations in materials and structure setting new standards for foldable smartphones [9][21] - Vivo's strategy targets the pain points of potential users, as 36.32% of foldable smartphone prospects cite weight as a primary purchasing barrier, which the X Fold5 effectively mitigates [8] Ecosystem Integration - The X Fold5 breaks down the barriers between Android and Apple ecosystems, allowing seamless connectivity with Apple devices, including the Apple Watch, and facilitating cross-application functionality [10][12] - The device supports a range of features that enhance user experience, such as syncing health data with Apple Watch, accessing iCloud directly, and enabling multi-tasking capabilities across applications [12][20] - Vivo's approach aims to attract Apple users by providing a smooth transition experience, thereby expanding the target user base for foldable smartphones [15][21] Industry Implications - The foldable smartphone market is evolving into a comprehensive competition involving hardware, software, and ecosystem integration, with Vivo leading this shift through the X Fold5 [16][17] - The focus is shifting from mere technical specifications to ecosystem integration and user experience, indicating a potential transformation in market dynamics [17][20] - Vivo's innovations not only enhance user experience but also drive collaborative innovation across the supply chain, paving the way for foldable smartphones to transition from niche products to mainstream consumer goods [20][21]

（文/观察者网 吕栋） 折叠屏手机规模商用六年来，经历了超高速发展，在国内手机厂商的带动下，铰链、屏幕、电池、影像等本土产业链水平已经突破技术瓶颈，实现了跃迁。 去年下半年开始，国内折叠屏市场增速开始放缓，四季度甚至出现负增长。这意味着，折叠屏已经过了尝鲜阶段，进入 "微笑曲线"的底部。接下来，只有 充分挖掘折叠屏的使用价值，才能突破行业发展瓶颈。这就要求折叠屏不仅要耐用，更要实用、好用。 长期坚守用户导向的 vivo，对此理解颇深。全新推出的vivo X Fold5，不仅轻薄和可靠性再上巅峰，刷新折叠屏最轻纪录，同时也是唯一支持"三防"能力的 折叠屏。更重要的是，它搭载的原子工作台等能力，充分释放了大屏生产力，终结了"折叠屏无用论"。 面对苹果用户换机时对生态壁垒的顾虑， vivo X Fold5还在跨生态协同方向持续创新：在前代产品与iPhone、AirPods、Mac成功互联的基础上，率先实现了 安卓生态首个与Apple Watch跨生态连接的案例，为苹果全家桶用户提供了"无痛切换"或"双机搭子"的灵活选择。 不炫技，只解决真问题， vivo X Fold5是对用户需求深度思考后的又一次标杆式回应。并且 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of vivo X Fold5 marks a significant advancement in the foldable smartphone market, achieving the lightest foldable phone record globally and being the only model with "three-proof" features (waterproof, dustproof, and freeze-proof) [1][3] Group 1: Product Features and Innovations - vivo X Fold5 weighs only 217 grams and has a folded thickness of 9.2mm and an unfolded thickness of 4.3mm, providing a flagship smartphone feel [5] - The device features a 6000mAh equivalent battery, setting a new record for foldable phones, and introduces the second-generation semi-solid battery technology, enhancing low-temperature discharge performance [5][8] - The collaboration between vivo and suppliers has accelerated the development of high-silicon batteries and semi-solid batteries, showcasing vivo's R&D strength and driving the upgrade of the entire Chinese supply chain [8][10] Group 2: Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - The foldable smartphone market is becoming a crucial growth engine for the Chinese smartphone market, with a 53.1% year-on-year increase in foldable phone shipments in Q1 2025 [15] - vivo's market share in the Chinese foldable phone segment rose from 1.8% in H1 2022 to 18.7% in H1 2024, while overseas competitors like Samsung have seen their shares decline [15] - The global MIM (Metal Injection Molding) market is projected to grow from $4.278 billion in 2023 to $8.24 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 8.6%, driven by the demand for complex components in foldable devices [10][11] Group 3: Supply Chain and Domestic Production - vivo X Fold5 has achieved over 90% localization in key components such as hinges and UTG (Ultra-Thin Glass), enhancing the domestic supply chain's capabilities [10] - The production of UTG glass is increasingly being led by Chinese companies, breaking the technological monopoly of foreign firms, with significant players like Kaisheng Technology and Lens Technology emerging [11] - The rise of Chinese brands in the foldable phone market is expected to boost the localization rate of foldable phone components, enhancing the overall competitiveness of the domestic supply chain [11][13] Group 4: Ecosystem Integration - vivo X Fold5 has successfully integrated with Apple Watch, enabling cross-ecosystem connectivity, which is expected to attract a significant number of Apple users [12][13] - The device also supports seamless use of cross-ecosystem headphones and facilitates the flow of calls, messages, and notifications between iPhone and vivo devices [12][13]

姗姗来迟的苹果折叠屏，还能像iPhone一样主导中国高端旗舰市场吗？ 6月19日，根据苹果知名分析师郭明錤透露的供应链消息，苹果的折叠屏产品预计将在今年第三季度末或第四季度初正式开始生产，预计2026年秋季与 iPhone 18系列一同发布。 但是纵观当下折叠屏市场，苹果的迟到为中国手机厂商赢得了赶超的机会。自2019年以来，中国折叠屏产业已经完成了从0到1的构建。尤其是在柔性屏幕、 铰链机构以及生态适配上，国产厂商已经占据高端旗舰市场的先发优势。 以「轻」破局， vivo X Fold5 如何成为双机用户的「全能搭子」？ 一个无法忽略的行业事实是： 从最初探索阶段的 「 小众尝鲜」，到如今在「主力旗舰」市场的加速渗透，中国折叠屏已经成为全球领跑者。 根据IDC的数据显示，2024年中国折叠屏手机出货量达到917万台，同比增长30.8%。其中，连续四年稳居中国手机市场销量第一的vivo，也凭借着vivo X Fold系列的热销，走出了一条自己的折叠屏之路。 自去年主打「先旗舰后折叠」理念的vivo X Fold3实现销量较上代翻三倍之后，如今vivo的折叠旗舰系列又迎来了一次重磅更新：主打轻薄旗舰的vivo ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Honor Magic V5 aims to balance thin design and flagship performance, positioning itself as a groundbreaking product in the foldable smartphone market [1][10]. Group 1: Product Specifications - The Honor Magic V5 is claimed to be the world's thinnest foldable flagship smartphone, measuring only 8.8mm in thickness and weighing 217g, setting a new record in the foldable screen category [1]. - It features the Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 chip, ensuring no performance compromise despite its lightweight design, marking it as the only foldable device with this high-end chip [1][3]. Group 2: Battery and Imaging Technology - The device incorporates a 6100mAh battery, utilizing advanced materials and AI manufacturing to enhance capacity while maintaining a slim profile, alleviating battery anxiety for users [5]. - It also includes a flagship-level periscope telephoto lens, addressing previous limitations in imaging capabilities of foldable devices, thus improving overall photographic performance [5]. Group 3: AI Innovations - The Honor Magic V5 introduces significant AI advancements, including a full-stack personal knowledge base, multi-agent collaboration, and cross-device connectivity, transforming AI from a passive tool to an active service partner for users [10]. - The focus on lightweight design, hardware configuration, and software adaptation aligns with consumer preferences, with "lightweight" being the top priority among users when selecting foldable smartphones [10]. Group 4: Industry Impact - The Honor Magic V5 represents a response to industry trends, demonstrating that lightweight and powerful features can coexist, challenging the traditional trade-off in the foldable smartphone market [10]. - As AI evolves from a functional tool to a user companion, companies like Honor are paving the way for new possibilities in the global smart terminal industry [10].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi is set to launch its first SUV, the YU7, at the end of June, alongside other significant products, indicating a strong push into the automotive sector and continued growth in its technology offerings [7][10][14]. Group 1: Product Launches - The Xiaomi YU7, the company's first SUV, will be officially released at the end of June and is expected to be available in July, generating significant market interest [7][10]. - The Xiaomi MIX Flip 2, a new foldable smartphone, is anticipated to be unveiled this week, featuring a Leica imaging system and the new Surge OS, with a focus on high-end specifications [3][5]. Group 2: Product Specifications - The YU7 will feature standard configurations including laser radar, 800V fast charging, and long battery life, with dimensions of 4999x1996x1600 mm and a wheelbase of 3000 mm [10][14]. - The MIX Flip 2 will be powered by the Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 platform, boasting features such as IPX8 water resistance, 50W wireless fast charging, and a battery capacity exceeding 5000mAh [5][3]. Group 3: Market Performance - Xiaomi's stock price has increased by approximately 57% this year, marking three consecutive years of growth, reflecting investor confidence in the company's expanding product lineup [15][17]. - Analysts predict that the YU7's monthly sales could reach between 30,000 to 40,000 units, potentially surpassing the sales of the SU7 model [14]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - Xiaomi is focusing on operating systems and chip development, with the new HyperOS 3 set to launch in September, and the introduction of the 3nm chip, marking a significant milestone in China's semiconductor industry [16][17].

Group 1 - Honor's new AI foldable flagship phone, Magic V5, is set to be released on July 2, 2025, and is positioned as the "lightest foldable phone globally" and "the strongest AI smartphone in the industry" [1] - The Magic V5 will feature a Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 processor, a new silicon battery, and support for Beidou satellite messaging and side fingerprint recognition [1] - Apple is expected to start production of its foldable iPhone in Q3 or Q4 of 2025, with orders for 15 to 20 million units, indicating a long-term demand outlook rather than just for 2026 [1] Group 2 - The foldable smartphone market is anticipated to be a key growth area as the overall smartphone market slows down, with a projected global shipment growth rate of 6% for foldable phones in 2023 [2] - China is leading the foldable smartphone industry, accounting for 46% of global shipments from Q1 to Q3 of 2024 [2] Group 3 - On August 9, 2024, speculation arose about Huawei launching a new three-fold phone, leading to significant stock price increases for several foldable concept stocks, including Star Technology and Kaisheng Technology [3] - Notable stock performances included Star Technology with a 20.23% increase, Huawei Technology with a 10.05% increase, and Kaisheng Technology with a 10% increase [4]

Core Viewpoint - Apple is set to launch its foldable iPhone, produced by Foxconn, in late Q3 or early Q4 of 2025, with an official unveiling planned alongside the iPhone 18 series in fall 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Production Timeline and Specifications - Foxconn is expected to begin production of the foldable iPhone by the end of September or early October 2025 [1]. - The foldable iPhone will feature a display that measures approximately 5.5 inches when folded and can expand to 7.8 inches when opened, utilizing a design similar to the Samsung Galaxy Fold series [4]. - The device is anticipated to have a thickness of about 4.5 mm when fully opened and between 9 to 9.5 mm when folded, making it notably thin in full-screen mode [4]. Group 2: Component Details and Pricing - The foldable iPhone's display will be produced by Samsung Display, while the specifications for several components, including the bearings, are still being finalized [4]. - The expected price range for the foldable iPhone is between $2,000 and $2,500, a prediction made prior to the potential impact of high tariffs from China [4]. Group 3: Market Demand and Production Estimates - Apple plans to order between 15 million to 20 million units of the foldable iPhone, which is projected to meet market demand for the next two to three years, given the high price point may limit consumer demand [5]. - Samsung Display is estimated to produce approximately 7 million to 8 million foldable display panels for Apple in 2026 [5].

郭明錤指出，目前已经确定的一个部件是该设备的可折叠显示屏。据他所说，三星显示 （Samsung Display）计划明年为这款设备生产700万至800万块可折叠面板。 "这表明，预计将于2026年下半年投入批量生产的苹果折叠屏iPhone，可能会在2027年和 2028年每年出货数百万部。"他表示，并补充说，这可能是由于其高昂的定价限制了销量，相 比之下，去年9月，仅在预售的第一个周末，苹果就售出了约3700万部iPhone 16。 至于，苹果首款"折叠屏iPhone"究竟何时才会正式推出，郭明錤警告说："在项目正式启动之 前，所有计划都可能发生变化。"此前有报道称，苹果计划在2026年秋季推出可折叠手机。 他预计这款手机将"定价较高"。郭明錤此前还曾预测， 苹果"折叠屏iPhone"的售价将在 2000至2500美元之间，而这一预测还是在特朗普发动"关税战"之前做出的。 郭明錤还指出，最近市场传闻称苹果已订购1500-2000万部"折叠屏iPhone"，但根据其基于 对多个组件的了解，"这一数量可能反映了产品2-3年生命周期内的累积需求，而不仅仅是 2026年"。 郭明錤此前还曾透露，后续苹果的折叠屏产线将 ...

Global Smartphone Market Overview - The global smartphone market is expected to see a year-on-year growth of 0.2% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery phase [1] - The total global smartphone shipments are projected to reach 1.22 billion units in 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% compared to the previous year [1] - The market is anticipated to grow at a modest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1% from 2025 to 2029, facing challenges from low-end replacement demand and geopolitical uncertainties [1] High-End Smartphone Market Insights - The high-end smartphone segment (priced above $600) experienced a year-on-year shipment increase of 12% in Q1 2025, driven by manufacturers' commitment to premium offerings and advancements in AI technology [4] - Apple leads the high-end market with a 59% share, showing a 10% growth year-on-year [5] - Huawei's high-end segment grew by 69%, capturing a 9% market share, while Google and Xiaomi also reported significant growths of 21% and 81% respectively [4][5] Regional Market Performance - In the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Greater China), Apple holds a 61% market share in the high-end segment, with a 12% year-on-year growth [7] - In North America and Latin America, Apple dominates with a 71% market share, reflecting an 18% increase [7] - In Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, Apple maintains a 55% share with a 15% growth, while Samsung follows with a 37% share and a 13% increase [9] AI Smartphone Projections - The penetration rate of AI smartphones is expected to reach 34% by 2025, supported by advancements in chip capabilities and model efficiency [9] - Apple leads the global AI smartphone market with a shipment of 43.6 million units, accounting for 58% of the market [12] - In mainland China, Apple also leads with a 40% market share in AI smartphones, followed by Xiaomi with 26% [16] Foldable Smartphone Forecast - The foldable smartphone market is projected to achieve only a 0.1% year-on-year growth in 2025, with major manufacturers attempting to stimulate demand through price reductions and SKU expansions [24] - 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the foldable market, potentially revitalized by Apple's rumored foldable product [24] 5G Smartphone Outlook - The penetration of 5G smartphones is expected to continue growing, with projections indicating that by 2029, 88% of smartphone shipments will be 5G-enabled [26]