报道引述消息人士的话称，在特定商业领域，H200或在近期获得中国市场。另据路透社援引两名消息 人士报道，由于销售前景的不确定性，英伟达现在要求中国客户预付全款，且下单后不能取消、退款或 重新配置。 【环球时报记者 倪浩 环球时报特约记者 文简】在美国政府去年12月放行英伟达H200对华出口后，业界 纷纷猜测其对华交付的时机和未来销售前景。彭博社8日引述消息人士的话称，最快本季度或可以向中 国出口H200。 彭博社报道称，中国是全球最大的半导体市场，英伟达芯片若能进入，无疑将是一次"重大胜利"。英伟 达首席执行官黄仁勋曾表示，光是人工智能（AI）芯片领域，在中国未来几年就可能产生500亿美元的 营收。报道还提到，在英伟达芯片遭美国限制出口、美国芯片缺席中国市场期间，中国本土竞争对手蓬 勃发展，并计划在2026年大幅增产。 美国《华尔街日报》报道称，在全球AI竞赛如火如荼之际，美国总统特朗普于去年12月8日宣布允许英 伟达将其较高阶的H200芯片出口至中国"经批准的客户"。"《金融时报》随后传出北京正在审慎评估让 此芯片卖到中国市场的可能性，或至少先调查其'安全性'。"报道称，这反映出中方对芯片领域长期依 赖导致 ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 针对美国从原本封锁高端芯片输中到开放英伟达H200芯片销售，是否将影响中国科技自主进程， 中国半导体行业协会副理事长魏少军表示，中国半导体产业必须对此保持高度警惕，坚决不被其表 像所迷惑，更不能因此动摇在先进制程等领域坚持国产化道路的信心与决心。 据环球时报报导，H200芯片是英伟达仅次于Blackwell系列的次顶级芯片，在拜登政府时期被禁止 对中出口。川普政府在限制出口最先进Blackwell系列芯片与"完全不出口反而助长中国更快实现国 产替代"之间寻求平衡，最终允许有条件放开H200芯片对中出口，但需获得美国商务部出口许可审 批。 报导表示，在这个角度上，美国变幻不定的态度，在高端芯片上时而解禁时而施压，让使用者难以 确认其真实战略意图。最近的所谓放松究竟是推动良性互动的讯号，还是意图扰乱中国发展节奏、 让中国放松警惕的新策略，魏少军说，中国半导体产业必须对此保持高度警惕，坚决不被其表像所 迷惑，更不能因此动摇在先进制程等领域坚持国产化道路的信心与决心。 但魏少军也指出，"从行业发展角度看，高端算力资源的合理流动有助于促进人工智慧等前沿技术 的应用探索。科技无国 ...

2025年，是沉淀已久的国产AI芯片迎来关键性转折的一年。随着AI真正变得"可用"，算力需求从训练逐步转向推理，而在DeepSeek的助力之下，AI算力需 求爆发，国产替代也被按下了"加速键"。 机遇之下，不仅寒武纪股价狂飙，屡次登上科创板"股王"之位，连续讲述了一整年的国产替代，也在2025年底迎来了一场资本"盛宴"——摩尔线程和沐曦股 份先后顶着"国产GPU第一股"和"第二股"的光环登陆科创板，壁仞科技和天数智芯也在港交所接连传出喜讯，将在2026年初正式赴港上市。 不过，几乎同期，市场传出英伟达H200被批准对华出售的消息，业内也开始担忧，若H200顺利进入中国市场，国产AI芯片的格局是否再度迎来变数，这一 疑问也一直延续到了今年。 那么，2025年国产AI芯片的发展将去往何处？Trend Force集邦咨询分析师龚明德告诉南都记者，"2026年在本土领先业者带动下, 高阶AI芯片占比有机会往 50%的目标迈进，预期相对低阶规格的AI推理芯片将获得较大发展机会。" 此外，还有分析人士认为，国产算力的突围路径不仅要"造芯"，也要"组局"，核 心是构建跨厂商、跨技术的开放协同生态。 趋势1 DeepSeek ...

智通财经APP获悉，银河证券发布研报称，12月人工智能板块维持震荡走势，小幅微跌，成交量萎缩， 12月受到国内外多重因素影响，市场整体呈现出一定分歧，以短期内题材交易机会为主导，该行认为市 场目前对日本央行加息、美联储降息预期已经充分演绎，当前仍然在政策、业绩披露空窗期，资金仍然 相对集中在业绩有望持续兑现的AI硬件如光模块、PCB等领域，科技板块内部呈现分化结构，当然该行 也看到部分AI应用公司三季报业绩出现边际好转，当前节点该行仍然建议左侧布局人工智能板块中有 业绩支撑细分领域及龙头公司。 银河证券主要观点如下： 英伟达H200获批对华销售，国产算力产业链迎变局时刻 美国当地时间12月8日,特朗普表示将允许英伟达向中国"获批客户"出售H200芯片，销售收入的25%将上 缴美国政府。该行认为，短期来看国产算力芯片将受到一定冲击，当然具体各个大厂能拿到多少配额仍 然是个未知数，采购一定数量的H200有助于国产大模型提升训练环节效率。长期来看，对国产算力芯 片冲击有限甚至倒逼国产算力芯片加速突破，该行仍然坚定看好国产算力产业链，长期逻辑将是训练端 暂缓替代节奏但不改自主可控路线，通过短期配套H200加速国产大模 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a severe supply-demand imbalance in the semiconductor market, particularly affecting graphics cards and memory chips, driven by the explosive growth in AI data centers, which is significantly impacting consumer electronics prices and availability [1][3][9]. Group 1: Graphics Card Market - The official price of Nvidia's RTX 5090 is $1999, but actual retail prices have surged to $4000, with predictions it may reach $5000, reflecting a 150% increase over the official price [1]. - Third-party graphics cards start at $2499, but online retailers are pricing them between $3000 and $4000, indicating a significant markup due to supply constraints [1]. - The gaming community is at a disadvantage in this competition for chip resources, as AI data centers consume the majority of available capacity [1]. Group 2: Memory Chip Crisis - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) has skyrocketed due to AI model training, leading to a severe shortage of consumer-grade DRAM chips [3]. - Memory prices have doubled in the past six months, increasing graphics card manufacturing costs by 80% [3]. - TrendForce predicts a 50%-55% increase in average DRAM prices by Q4 2025, while Citigroup expects an additional 40% rise by Q2 2026 [3][4]. Group 3: Supply Chain Issues - Major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix have prioritized AI server markets, leading to a public acknowledgment of order volumes exceeding production capacity for 2026 [4]. - New chip factories require two to three years to build, meaning the supply shortage will not be resolved before 2027 [4]. - Nvidia's H200 chip, priced at $30,000 to $40,000, requires multiple HBM3e memory chips, further limiting availability for consumer markets [4]. Group 4: Impact on Consumers - Companies like Dell and Lenovo have reported unprecedented cost pressures, predicting a 5%-20% price increase for smartphones, computers, and home appliances in 2026 [6]. - Xiaomi has already raised prices for flagship models, citing supply chain pressures that will be greater in 2026 than in 2025 [6]. - Consumer electronics manufacturers have little negotiating power, as cloud service providers secure long-term contracts with chip manufacturers, forcing them to accept higher prices [6]. Group 5: Resource Allocation Imbalance - Morgan Stanley forecasts that spending on AI infrastructure by major U.S. tech companies will reach $620 billion in 2026, a 32% increase from 2025 [9]. - The demand from AI data centers far outweighs that of the consumer electronics market, leading to a prioritization of resources towards AI applications [9]. - Analysts warn that the current shortages could evolve into a supply chain crisis similar to that experienced during the pandemic, with ongoing tight supply expected through 2027 [9].

Core Viewpoint - ByteDance plans to invest RMB 100 billion (approximately NT$ 44.82 billion) to purchase NVIDIA H200 chips by 2026, pending approval from the U.S. Department of Commerce, which could lead to significant business opportunities for Inventec in AI server manufacturing, potentially exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1: Investment Plans - ByteDance is set to invest RMB 100 billion in NVIDIA H200 chips by 2026 [1] - The investment is contingent upon receiving approval from the U.S. Department of Commerce [1] Group 2: AI Development - ByteDance is actively developing its own AI model, aiming for its chatbot "Doubao" to process over 50 trillion tokens daily by December 2025, a significant increase from 4 trillion tokens by December 2024 [1] - The president of ByteDance's cloud service division, Volcano Engine, revealed that over 100 enterprise clients are currently using more than 1 trillion tokens, indicating a high demand for computing power [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - The industry anticipates that Inventec may secure a substantial AI server manufacturing order this year, which could lead to better-than-expected performance [1]

Group 1: Core Insights - The tech industry is experiencing a significant wave of layoffs, with major companies like Amazon and Salesforce announcing substantial job cuts while simultaneously seeing stock price increases, indicating a shift in market perception towards efficiency driven by AI [3][5][6] - The layoffs are characterized as a structural change linked to the rise of AI, with companies reducing workforce numbers to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [4][9] - The wealth concentration among tech billionaires is accelerating, with notable figures like Elon Musk seeing their net worth soar, highlighting the financial benefits of AI advancements for a select few [7][14] Group 2: Layoff Trends - In 2025 alone, global tech companies have cut nearly 100,000 jobs, with the largest monthly layoffs reaching 24,500 positions [3][5] - Amazon has laid off over 27,000 employees since 2022, while Microsoft and Intel have also made significant cuts, reflecting a widespread trend across the tech sector [5][6] - Meta's approach to layoffs, which reportedly involves determining cuts based on code contribution, illustrates a new, harsher evaluation of employee value in the AI era [5][9] Group 3: Market Reactions - The market is reacting positively to layoffs, with companies like Amazon seeing stock prices rise by over 12% following announcements of job cuts, indicating a new capital logic that values efficiency over workforce size [6][11] - The perception of layoffs has shifted from a sign of distress to a strategy for enhancing AI capabilities, with executives presenting these decisions confidently rather than defensively [6][12] Group 4: Value Redefinition - The rise of AI is fundamentally altering how talent is valued, with a stark divide emerging between ordinary and top-tier engineers, where the latter can leverage AI to create exponentially greater value [9][10] - Companies are increasingly prioritizing AI expertise over traditional roles, leading to a significant restructuring of job categories and the elimination of many lower-skilled positions [10][11] Group 5: Economic Implications - AI is reshaping corporate cost structures, with companies like Amazon reporting strong profit growth despite ongoing layoffs, suggesting that AI is becoming a core driver of efficiency and profitability [11][12] - The long-term impact of AI on the labor market is complex, with potential job displacement for lower-skilled workers and a hollowing out of mid-level positions, while also creating new opportunities in AI-related fields [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The AI computing power sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by government initiatives and increasing demand for domestic AI chips, particularly the H200 chip, which is expected to enhance the capabilities of major tech companies in China [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the last trading day of 2025, AI computing stocks showed strong performance, with the cloud computing ETF (159890) rising over 1% and achieving a six-day winning streak [1]. - Notable stock performances included a rise of 11.46% for Yidian Tianxia, over 8% for Hand Information, and more than 4% for companies like Zhongke Xingtai and Wanxing Technology [1]. Group 2: Policy and Industry Developments - A key government official announced the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, which is expected to create extensive application scenarios for AI computing power chips, leading to rapid growth in demand and innovation within the sector [3]. - The conditional opening of the H200 chip to China is seen as a positive development, with major tech firms like Alibaba and ByteDance planning significant purchases to enhance their AI capabilities [3][4]. Group 3: Domestic Chip Strategy - Domestic companies are adopting varied strategies in response to the H200 chip availability; Baidu is focusing on its self-developed Kunlun AI chip to reduce reliance on external suppliers, while Tencent is exploring indirect methods to access more powerful chips [4]. - The release of the H200 chip is viewed as a catalyst for strengthening the long-term strategy of achieving self-sufficiency in domestic computing power [5]. Group 4: Growth Projections - According to IDC and Inspur, China's intelligent computing power is projected to reach 1,037.3 EFLOPS by 2025 and 2,781.9 EFLOPS by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 46.2% from 2023 to 2028 [6]. - The general computing power in China is expected to grow to 85.8 EFLOPS by 2025 and 140.1 EFLOPS by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.8% during the same period [6]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The domestic computing power market is seen as having significant potential for growth, with opportunities arising from capital expenditure and technological innovation [6]. - The cloud computing ETF (159890) tracks a diverse range of companies involved in AI infrastructure and applications, indicating a comprehensive approach to the AI computing power era [6].

Core Viewpoint - The competition between China and the United States in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) is likened to a football game, with the U.S. currently leading 24 to 18 at halftime, but China is gaining momentum [1][3]. Group 1: Game Analogy - The Wall Street Journal uses a football game analogy to explain the AI competition, emphasizing that both sides can claim victory and the stakes are economic and military leadership rather than a trophy [3]. - The U.S. scored points through various advancements, including ChatGPT and Nvidia's contributions, while China made significant gains with DeepSeek and Huawei [4][5]. Group 2: Expert Opinions on Score - Different analysts provide varying perspectives on the score, with Chris Miller suggesting a 24 to 12 lead for the U.S., citing the U.S.'s ability to monetize AI compared to China [6]. - Deepika Giri offers a closer score of 21 to 19, highlighting China's rapid rise through innovations like DeepSeek [6]. - Other analysts, including Tarun Chhabra and Saif Khan, provide scores of 21 to 14 and 24 to 17 respectively, emphasizing the U.S.'s advantages in models and supply chains while acknowledging China's potential [6]. Group 3: Key Factors in Competition - The article identifies chips and chatbots as critical components of the AI competition, with chips likened to quarterbacks and chatbots to receivers [7][8]. - Trump's recent decision to allow Nvidia to sell older chips to China is seen as a strategic move that could impact the competitive landscape [7][8]. - Nvidia's H200 chip, although older, is still considered superior to many Chinese alternatives, potentially narrowing the U.S.'s computational advantage [8][9]. Group 4: Chatbot Developments - Chatbots are highlighted as crucial for achieving breakthroughs in AI, with U.S. companies currently dominating the leaderboard for top models [11]. - Chinese companies, including Alibaba and DeepSeek, are also making significant strides, with DeepSeek's recent achievements showcasing their competitive capabilities despite hardware limitations [11][12]. - The article raises questions about the future competitiveness of Chinese companies if they gain access to better hardware [12][13].

Industry Information - The 2025 Globalization and Sustainable Development Forum for the automotive industry released three key industry consensus points, emphasizing the integration of electric intelligence with ESG responsibilities, the importance of safety and user value in smart vehicles, and the necessity of sustainable development as a core requirement for the automotive industry [7] - Wuhan's 14th Five-Year Plan suggests accelerating the development of emerging industries such as embodied intelligence, high-end chips, quantum technology, and brain-computer interfaces [8] - As of November 2025, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure in China reached 19.322 million, a year-on-year increase of 52.0%, with public charging facilities accounting for 4.625 million [9][10] - The total investment for the EVE Energy headquarters and Jin Yuan Robot AI Center project is approximately 1 billion yuan, focusing on sodium battery products and AI robotics [12] - Guangzhou aims to create a trillion-level smart connected new energy vehicle industry cluster as part of its 14th Five-Year Plan [13] - The "Shenzhen-Hong Kong Automotive Fast Pass Plan" has been officially implemented, streamlining the import process for electric vehicles [14] - The National Energy Administration is promoting the construction of charging piles in rural areas to support the growth of electric vehicles [15] - Huawei's ADS MAX 4.1 upgrade significantly enhances the experience in urban congestion scenarios [16] - The first batch of L3-level autonomous driving vehicle special license plates has been issued in Beijing, marking a milestone in the commercialization of autonomous vehicles [16] - By 2026, over 10,000 charging guns will be built in highway service areas across the country [16] - The National Energy Administration reported a 60.2% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption for charging and swapping services in November 2025 [18] - The first automotive intelligent chassis testing report was released, with BYD's Yangwang U7, NIO ES8, and Zhijie R7 recognized as benchmark models [20] - Hunan's electric vehicle exports exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time, with a year-on-year growth of 105.3% [22] - Guangzhou's new energy vehicle production increased by 22.6% in the first 11 months of 2025 [22] - A total investment of 7.47 billion yuan was signed at the Ningde lithium battery new energy industry promotion conference, with an expected annual output value of 12.14 billion yuan [27] - The annual export of new energy vehicles from the Xiangyang Comprehensive Bonded Zone exceeded 10,000 units for the first time, marking a 350% year-on-year increase [27] - Inner Mongolia's Chifeng City has built 3,453 charging piles during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [29] Policy Information - The Guizhou Qiannan Prefecture government issued a plan for high-quality energy industry development from 2025 to 2027, focusing on expanding charging infrastructure [30] - The Henan Sanmenxia government released a plan for the construction of charging facilities in residential areas [31] - The Jiangsu province is adjusting its electric vehicle charging fee subsidy policy for 2026 [32] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to regulate competition in the new energy vehicle, lithium battery, and photovoltaic industries to avoid "involution" [23][24]