有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/01 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 87440 11040 7.88 三月 87400 10995 7.94 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.03 -1071.50 现货出口 869.25 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22370 3261 6.86 三月 22450 3037 5.62 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.44 -5161.67 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21450 2819 7.61 三月 21650 2845 7.56 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.31 -1969.45 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119500 14663 8.15 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.13 -1633.66 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 28, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 87060, LME price is 10952, and the ratio is 7.95; for three - month, the price in China is 87030, LME price is 10936, and the ratio is 7.96. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.04 with a profit of - 1077.91, and spot export profit is 539.42 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 22450, LME price is 3214, and the ratio is 6.99; for three - month, the price in China is 22445, LME price is 3049, and the ratio is 5.56. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.45 with a profit of - 4718.86 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 21460, LME price is 2826, and the ratio is 7.60; for three - month, the price in China is 21545, LME price is 2854, and the ratio is 7.54. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.31 with a profit of - 2019.25 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 119150, LME price is 14633, and the ratio is 8.14. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.14 with a profit of - 1696.98 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 16850, LME price is 1938, and the ratio is 8.72; for three - month, the price in China is 16955, LME price is 1977, and the ratio is 11.34. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.70 with a profit of 51.81 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month are 60, 100, 90, and 40 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 537, 971, 1415, and 1859 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month are 35, 65, 95, and 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 336, 457, and 578 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month are 30, 75, 95, and 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 218, 338, 457, and 576 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month are 10, 10, 35, and 95 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 210, 315, 421, and 527 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month are 190, 400, 610, and 890 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread of 5 - 1 is - 180, and the theoretical spread is 6234 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month contract and the next - month contract relative to the spot are - and - 45 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 338 and 828 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month contract and the next - month contract relative to the spot are - 70 and - 35 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 139 and 269 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month contract and the next - month contract relative to the spot are 95 and 105 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 154 and 266 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (triple - consecutive) are 3.88, 4.04, 5.13, 0.96, 1.27, and 0.76 respectively, and for LME (triple - consecutive) are 3.63, 3.87, 5.51, 0.94, 1.42, and 0.66 respectively [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 27, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price: domestic 86690, LME 10873, ratio 7.97; March price: domestic 86600, LME 10865, ratio 7.97; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.03, profit - 712.75; Spot export profit 293.03 [1] Zinc - Spot price: domestic 22390, LME 3171, ratio 7.06; March price: domestic 22365, LME 3008, ratio 5.67; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.45, profit - 4415.71 [1] Aluminum - Spot price: domestic 21400, LME 2784, ratio 7.68; March price: domestic 21505, LME 2811, ratio 7.63; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.31, profit - 1733.11 [1] Nickel - Spot price: domestic 120450, LME 14652, ratio 8.22; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.13, profit - 1756.72 [1] Lead - Spot price: domestic 16950, LME 1945, ratio 8.74; March price: domestic 17065, LME 1986, ratio 11.26; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.69, profit 96.55 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 50, 60, 20, - 20 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 535, 967, 1409, 1851 [4] Zinc - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 5, 30, 35; Theoretical spreads are 215, 336, 456, 577 [4] Aluminum - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 30, 80, 110, 125; Theoretical spreads are 218, 337, 456, 576 [4] Lead - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 60, 60, 55, 70; Theoretical spreads are 210, 316, 422, 528 [4] Nickel - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 1320, 1490, 1670, 1920 [4] Tin - 5 - 1 spread is 320; Theoretical spread is 6108 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.87, 4.03, 5.07, 0.96, 1.26, 0.76; in London (three - continuous) are 3.59, 3.84, 5.54, 0.94, 1.45, 0.65 [5] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are - 70, - 20; Theoretical spreads are 350, 836 [4] Zinc - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are - 30; Theoretical spreads are 155, 288 [4][5] Lead - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 55, 115; Theoretical spreads are 152, 265 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The platinum and palladium futures are set to be listed on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on November 27, 2025. The theoretical values of platinum and palladium on the listing day are lower than the benchmark prices, so the prices may initially decline to approach the forward parity structure. However, considering the high trading activity at the beginning of the domestic futures listing, the prices may first rise. In the long - term, the fundamentals of platinum and palladium are differentiated. Platinum has a stable and good fundamental situation and is expected to rise in the medium - to - long term, with a price range of 400 - 480 yuan/gram in the first half of next year. Palladium's demand is expected to remain weak, but its price center may rise slightly, with a price range of 350 - 420 yuan/gram in the first half of next year [2][41]. - Various investment strategies are proposed, including single - side strategies, spot - futures strategies, inter - period strategies, cross - variety strategies, and cross - market strategies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum Futures Contract Key Element Analysis - **Contract Details**: Platinum futures will be listed on November 27, 2025. The first batch of listed contracts are PT2606, PT2608, and PT2610, with PT2606 expected to be the most active and the main contract. The listing price of each contract on the first day is 405 yuan/gram. The trading margin level on the listing day is 9% of the contract value, and the daily price limit range is 14% of the benchmark price. If the contract has trading volume, from the next trading day, the trading margin level is 9% of the contract value, and the daily price limit range is 7% of the previous trading day's settlement price. Otherwise, the margin and limit range of the listing day will continue to apply [8]. - **Delivery Product Standards**: The benchmark delivery product of platinum futures requires a purity of not less than 99.95%. The impurity element content is specified according to different forms and sources, with different requirements for domestic and imported platinum ingots, spongy platinum, and powdered platinum [10]. - **Delivery Warehouse Settings and Regions**: Platinum futures have three types of delivery locations: warehouses, production - type factory warehouses, and trading - type factory warehouses. The first batch of factory warehouses and warehouses are all benchmark warehouses without any premium or discount. The maximum capacity of platinum in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 50.25 tons, with warehouses accounting for 79.6% and factory warehouses accounting for 20.4%. Factory warehouses are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Shanghai, and warehouses are concentrated in Shanghai [14][15]. - **Delivery Brand Settings**: Platinum futures implement a brand - based delivery system. There are 14 domestic registered brands and 26 overseas registered brands. Different brands can deliver different forms of platinum products [18]. 3.2 Palladium Futures Contract Key Element Analysis - **Contract Details**: Palladium futures will be listed on November 27, 2025. The first batch of listed contracts are PD2606, PD2608, and PD2610, with PD2606 expected to be the most active and the main contract. The listing price of each contract on the first day is 365 yuan/gram. The trading margin level on the listing day is 9% of the contract value, and the daily price limit range is 14% of the benchmark price. If the contract has trading volume, from the next trading day, the trading margin level is 9% of the contract value, and the daily price limit range is 7% of the previous trading day's settlement price. Otherwise, the margin and limit range of the listing day will continue to apply [21]. - **Delivery Product Standards**: The benchmark delivery product of palladium futures requires a purity of not less than 99.95%. The impurity element content is specified according to different forms and sources, with different requirements for domestic and imported palladium ingots, spongy palladium, and powdered palladium [24]. - **Delivery Warehouse Settings and Regions**: Palladium futures have three types of delivery locations: warehouses, production - type factory warehouses, and trading - type factory warehouses. The first batch of factory warehouses and warehouses are all benchmark warehouses without any premium or discount. The maximum capacity of palladium in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 42.705 tons, with warehouses accounting for 93.67% and factory warehouses accounting for 6.33%. Factory warehouses are mainly concentrated in Yunnan and Gansu, and warehouses are concentrated in Shanghai [27][28]. - **Delivery Brand Settings**: Palladium futures implement a brand - based delivery system. There are 13 domestic registered brands and 24 overseas registered brands. Different brands can deliver different forms of palladium products [29]. 3.3 Platinum and Palladium Futures Investment Outlook - **Single - side Strategy on the Listing Day**: The theoretical values of platinum and palladium on the listing day are lower than the benchmark prices. In the short - term, the prices may decline to approach the forward parity structure. However, considering the high trading activity at the beginning of the domestic futures listing, the prices may first rise. From a fundamental perspective, the prices may show a pattern of rising first and then falling. In the next 12 months, the prices of platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate narrowly downward. In the medium - to - long term, platinum is expected to rise, with a price range of 400 - 480 yuan/gram in the first half of next year, while palladium's price center may rise slightly, with a price range of 350 - 420 yuan/gram in the first half of next year [2][39][41]. - **Spot - Futures Strategy Cost Calculation**: Taking the strategy of buying spot and selling the 2606 contract as an example, the cost of the platinum spot - futures strategy is about 7.5 yuan/gram, and the cost of the palladium spot - futures strategy is about 6.7 yuan/gram. If relevant opportunities arise, risk - free arbitrage strategies can be considered [43][44]. - **Inter - period Strategy**: Due to the regulation that the platinum and palladium delivery factories in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will be uniformly cancelled in August each year, the price of the 2608 contract may be under pressure. Therefore, the inter - period strategy can consider buying the 2606 contract and selling the 2610 contract. When the price of PT2610 is about 5.1 yuan/gram higher than PT2606, and the price of PD2610 is about 4.6 yuan/gram higher than PD2606, there are risk - free positive arbitrage opportunities [48]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Based on the differentiated fundamentals of platinum and palladium, the cross - variety arbitrage strategy considers going long on platinum and short on palladium. If the platinum - to - palladium ratio approaches 1 after the contract listing, an arbitrage position can be considered, with a target ratio of 1.2 - 1.3 [53]. - **Cross - market Strategy**: There may be positive risk - free arbitrage opportunities in the cross - market part, which can be achieved by selling domestic futures and buying overseas spot forwards. The break - even points of this type of strategy are about 46.2 yuan/gram for platinum and about 42.9 yuan/gram for palladium [62].

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16950 1950 8.72 三月 17045 1986 11.28 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.70 34.58 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/26 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 86620 10867 7.93 三月 86600 10857 7.99 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.04 -787.48 现货出口 269.01 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22400 3130 7.16 三月 22380 3009 5.67 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.47 -4106.26 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21440 2789 7.69 三月 21505 2820 7.63 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.32 -1760.57 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119500 14494 8.24 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.14 -1774 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is in a loose pattern, with the center of futures and spot prices moving down, and the delivery volume and warehouse receipt volume hitting new highs, indicating a large selling pressure in the market [2][6]. - The UR2511&2601 spread mainly follows the reverse arbitrage logic, and the UR2601&2605 spread is likely to fluctuate strongly under the influence of export, reserve demand expectations, and high - load production [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Delivery Information Summary - Since its listing, the urea 11 - contract has undergone 6 deliveries. In the mainstream delivery areas of Henan and Hebei, the 11 - contract has mostly had a discounted futures price. The current UR2511 contract's delivery settlement price is 1619 yuan/ton, with a lower basis compared to historical contracts. The delivery volume of the UR2511 contract is about 3950 lots (about 79,000 tons), an increase compared to the 2510 contract and last year's 11 - contract, reflecting the loose market situation [2][6][12]. 3.2 Warehouse Receipt and Seat Distribution Overview - As of the end of November, the urea warehouse receipt volume is much higher than the historical level. As of the last trading day in November, the warehouse receipt volume is about 7183 lots, an increase of 1627 lots from the previous month and 3469 lots from the same period last year. High warehouse receipt volume weakens the long - position holding willingness and is related to factors such as loose supply - demand, expanded sales channels, and hedging needs [3][14]. - Warehouse receipts are mainly distributed in factories such as Yuntu Holdings, Sichuan Agricultural Means of Production, Zhongnong Holdings, and Anhui Zhongneng, with Yuntu Holdings having the highest proportion (about 28%). In terms of provinces, Henan has the largest warehouse receipt volume (about 21.3%), followed by Hubei and Hebei (17.3% - 17.4%). Warehouse receipts are mainly concentrated in factories, accounting for about 84% [3][15]. - Among the seller member seats, Yide Futures has the highest proportion (about 26.03%), followed by Guohai Liangshi and Zhongyuan Futures. Among the buyer member seats, Guotai Junan has the largest proportion (about 118.71%), followed by Hongyuan Futures and Wuchan Zhongda [3][19]. 3.3 Later Evaluation - The UR2511&2601 spread follows the reverse arbitrage logic due to insufficient industrial and agricultural demand and inventory accumulation. The UR2601&2605 spread is under pressure from high inventory, with limited further downward space and weak rebound momentum. It is likely to fluctuate strongly under the influence of export and reserve demand expectations and high - load production [4]. 3.4 Other Information - The seasonal performance of the basis of the urea 11 - contract in Hebei this year is weaker than that of last year, with low volatility. The estimated one - month fixed delivery cost of urea is about 30 - 50 yuan/ton, and there are limited risk - free arbitrage opportunities. In the long - term, the loose market pattern may increase enterprises' willingness to participate in delivery [22]. - The report also provides detailed information on urea delivery factories, warehouses, and the calculation of theoretical delivery costs [21][24][26].

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/25 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 86240 10802 7.97 三月 86100 10777 8.00 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.07 -1067.61 现货出口 507.43 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22370 3148 7.11 三月 22410 3008 5.71 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.49 -4351.18 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21360 2773 7.70 三月 21410 2806 7.62 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.34 -1774.32 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119900 14370 8.34 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -1692.67 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - product arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 24, 2025 [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 24, 2025, the domestic spot price was 85800, the LME price was 10677, and the ratio was 8.07; the three - month domestic price was 85680, the LME price was 10676, and the ratio was 8.03. The profit from spot import was - 632.80, and the profit from spot export was 75.49 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22420, the LME price was 3122, and the ratio was 7.18; the three - month domestic price was 22400, the LME price was 2987, and the ratio was 5.75. The profit from spot import was - 4097.68 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21380, the LME price was 2757, and the ratio was 7.75; the three - month domestic price was 21370, the LME price was 2788, and the ratio was 7.66. The profit from spot import was - 1628.41 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 118650, the LME price was 14220, and the ratio was 8.34. The profit from spot import was - 1396.42 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17025, the LME price was 1973, and the ratio was 8.66; the three - month domestic price was 17170, the LME price was 1995, and the ratio was 11.22. The profit from spot import was - 123.44 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract were - 420, - 400, - 430, and - 440 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 532, 963, 1402, and 1842 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 10, 20, 25, and 40 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 215, 336, 457, and 578 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 155, - 125, - 110, and - 90 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 218, 338, 457, and 577 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 35, - 30, - 40, and 0 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 211, 318, 425, and 532 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 1200, - 1020, - 730, and - 450 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 480, with a theoretical spread of 6017 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 310 and - 110 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 40 and - 30 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 175 and 140 respectively [5] Cross - Product Arbitrage Tracking - On November 24, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - consecutive contracts) were 3.83, 4.01, 4.99, 0.95, 1.24, and 0.77 respectively; and in London (three - consecutive contracts) were 3.61, 3.87, 5.43, 0.93, 1.40, and 0.66 respectively [5]

Core View - The futures traders in Hangzhou are both rational practitioners and poetic dream - chasers, combining professionalism in trading with a pursuit of spiritual and emotional fulfillment [3] Summary of Different Scenes Morning - An experienced futures trader named Lao Hu gets up early to check the CBOT soybean trend while having prepared homemade dumplings. His wife jokes that he dreams about calculating basis spreads [2] - Lao Wang starts his live - stream at 7:15 AM, using a bowl of Pian'erchuan noodles to explain trading principles. He has a large number of fans on Douyin and is proud of making futures trading understandable to ordinary people [2] Mid - day - In cafes and shared offices, young people and private fund traders discuss futures - related topics like copper inventory and analyze trading records [3] - Lao Fu postpones dental treatment due to the market. During the waiting time at the hospital, he sees a news about forced liquidation and shares his view on the market on WeChat [3] Afternoon - A young female trader and her "90s" team focus on trading during the day, conduct in - depth reviews at night, and participate in closed - door meetings on weekends. They emphasize the need to work hard in Hangzhou's futures market [3] After trading hours - Some traders go to the gym to relieve stress, while others meet friends and enjoy food by the canal [3] Overall characteristics - Hangzhou's futures traders have a tenacious spirit of exploration. They are proficient in data analysis and policy research, and also pay attention to spiritual and emotional experiences. They believe in both the "valuation + driver" investment framework and the philosophy that "the heart is the market" [3]

Core Viewpoint - The interview highlights the trading strategies employed by a company in the polycrystalline silicon market, focusing on their successful use of various arbitrage and options strategies to enhance profitability. Group 1: Trading Strategies - The company utilizes three main trading strategies: spot-futures arbitrage, inter-month arbitrage, and options spread arbitrage [2]. - Initially, the company focused on spot-futures arbitrage, entering the market when reasonable price differences appeared, and increasing operations as price differences widened [2]. - In July, due to the "anti-involution" policy, the company shifted its strategy towards inter-month arbitrage, employing grid strategies to capture trading opportunities, resulting in a significant increase in trading volume [2]. Group 2: Options Strategies - The company employs a variety of options strategies, with a preference for vertical spreads and ratio spreads [2]. - The primary strategy involves a "bull spread," where the company buys near-month contracts and sells far-month contracts, allowing for profit locking even if price differences continue to widen [2]. - The company actively manages positions based on market conditions, using techniques such as pyramid averaging to gradually increase positions when price differences narrow [2]. Group 3: Unique Aspects of Options Trading - The company favors the options products offered by the exchange due to their sufficient strike price depth and wide coverage, which facilitates the implementation of the "wheel strategy" [3]. - The "wheel strategy" begins with selling put options, optimizing costs and generating income based on the demand in the spot market [3]. - The company emphasizes the role of options sellers, who focus on time value in addition to directional profits, and employs strategies to maximize returns or provide protection based on market volatility [4].