这两天的瓜都变味了。 阿里封楼成了新鲜事。有人说，是芯片项目的秘密基地，也有人猜，阿里在本地生活领域要放大招。消 息越传越玄乎，吊足了外界胃口。 直到今天，高德终于揭晓答案，推出「扫街榜」。 补贴撒出去，声势拉满，一旦补贴停下，用户心智立刻崩塌，业务跟着收场，这是阿里在本地生活的老 毛病。它喜欢靠「大声量」赢得开局，却很少能靠产品留住用户。 组织上，口碑、饿了么、飞猪、各自为战，内部消耗严重；对外打美团，对内却常常资源打架，再加上 KPI 导向，高层要数据，业务端只能拼命冲量，等补贴烧完，用户一哄而散，留下的只有一个个「试 过」的痕迹。 所以，这次回过头来再次押注高德，让老树发新牙，也是万不得已，主要在于，高德是阿里手里少有的 「稳定入口」。 QuestMobile 报告显示，在 2024 年国庆期间，高德日活峰值曾突破 2.8 亿，月活则超过 8 亿 ，它几乎成 了国民级应用，是用户每天都会打开的 App，打开频率甚至高过淘宝。 更关键的是，高德和「出行—消费」天然挂钩，用户出门前打开地图，导航到餐厅或商场，已经处在消 费决策的「临界点」。这一点，饿了么（偏到家场景）和口碑（偏点评入口）都不具备。 上线之后 ...

Core Viewpoint - A resignation letter from a former senior business specialist has exposed the internal issues of Gaode Map's cultural tourism division, leading to its rumored dissolution and highlighting significant operational failures and strategic misalignments within the company [2][4][8]. Group 1: Operational Failures - The cultural tourism division of Gaode Map was launched with high ambitions in early 2025, aiming to create a smart tourism infrastructure by collaborating with various provincial tourism departments and travel agencies [4][19]. - Despite initial successes, including a 35% penetration rate for joint tickets and a 120% increase in secondary consumption in a pilot project, the entire initiative was abruptly halted just before signing contracts, leaving the team to bear the consequences of government accountability and partner claims [4][20]. - The division's blind imitation of Meituan's advertising model led to a staggering 82% loss rate among merchants, with some travel agencies reporting zero transactions over five months [5][22]. Group 2: Strategic Misalignment - The strategic shift within Alibaba's "big consumption ecosystem" marginalized Gaode Map's cultural tourism efforts, relegating it to a "sacrificial pawn" in organizational adjustments [7][12]. - Significant disparities in resource allocation were noted, with substantial funding directed towards tunnel navigation projects while the budget for the cultural tourism data platform was drastically cut [7][22]. - The company’s decision to sell all effective advertising slots to Ctrip and impose high promotional fees on travel agencies further eroded its original mission of facilitating travel [7][22]. Group 3: Internal Conflicts - Gaode Map's official response to the resignation letter claimed the author was an outsourced sales personnel with poor performance, contradicting the author's assertion of being part of the direct team [8][12]. - The resignation process was marked by dramatic shifts in HR's stance, from attempts to retain the employee to a sudden insistence on termination regardless of performance metrics [8][12]. - The author highlighted that many employees in the cultural tourism division had been let go, despite the company's claims of not having terminated the business [8][12]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Gaode Map's revenue heavily relies on advertising, with total revenue exceeding 12 billion yuan in 2024, of which 7.8 billion yuan came from online advertising, accounting for 65% of total revenue [12][14]. - Despite achieving profitability for the first time, the underlying financial stability remains uncertain, as the local life group reported an adjusted EBITA loss of 596 million yuan for the last quarter of 2024 [12][14]. - The company faces challenges in monetizing its user base, as evidenced by the low average daily usage time of 12 minutes for 70% of its users, primarily focused on navigation [15][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [1][3] Core Views - The Q2 performance of Meituan was impacted by increased competition, with revenue of 91.84 billion (+11.7%) and adjusted net profit of 1.49 billion (-89.0%) [1][6] - Despite the competitive pressures, the long-term outlook for the company's core domestic business remains positive due to its competitive advantages and growth potential, while overseas operations present new growth opportunities [1][6] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2023: 276.85 billion - 2024: 337.59 billion - 2025E: 370.60 billion - 2026E: 428.95 billion - 2027E: 493.90 billion - Adjusted net profit estimates show significant fluctuations, with a projected loss of 15.60 billion in 2025E, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [2][8] - The target price is set at 141.90 HKD, with the current stock price at 116.3 HKD, indicating potential upside [3][6] Business Segment Performance - Core local commerce revenue growth slowed to 7.7% in Q2, while new business revenue increased by 22.8% [6] - The food delivery segment experienced stable growth in order volume, but profitability was affected by increased competition and subsidies [6] - The in-store segment showed a GTV growth of over 20%, but revenue growth is expected to decline due to competitive pressures [6] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that Q3 will see continued competitive intensity, leading to increased losses in the food delivery segment [6] - Long-term growth potential remains strong, with expectations for core local business GMV to reach approximately 2.7 trillion in 2025E [6][7]

Core Insights - Meituan reported a revenue of 91.8 billion yuan for Q2 2025, marking an 11.7% year-on-year growth, indicating a stable development trend [1] - The monthly active users of Meituan's app surpassed 500 million, with transaction frequency reaching a historical high [1] - The local life service market continues to expand, with Meituan establishing itself as a foundational platform through extensive merchant coverage and intelligent scheduling [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The core local commerce segment achieved a revenue of 65.3 billion yuan in Q2, reflecting a 7.7% year-on-year increase [1] - The new business segment generated 26.5 billion yuan in revenue, up 22.8% year-on-year, with losses narrowing to 1.9 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Meituan's instant delivery orders peaked at over 150 million in July, with an average delivery time of 34 minutes, reinforcing its market leadership [1] - The company is focusing on "retail + technology" strategies, exploring various business models such as Meituan Flash Purchase and Meituan Preferred [2][3] Group 3: Technological Advancements - R&D investment reached 6.3 billion yuan in Q2, a 17.2% increase year-on-year [3] - Meituan has launched 64 drone delivery routes across multiple cities, completing over 600,000 orders [3] Group 4: Merchant Support Initiatives - Meituan has implemented measures to support merchants, including cash subsidies and innovative business models, benefiting over 300,000 restaurant merchants [2] - Nearly half of the merchants reported significant increases in order volume, with 40% experiencing revenue growth [2]

Group 1: Core Insights - TikTok is expanding its local services in the U.S. by partnering with Booking.com, allowing users to book hotels directly through the app [2] - The collaboration includes dedicated hotel landing pages featuring prices, amenities, reviews, and related TikTok videos, indicating TikTok's exploration of local services [2] - TikTok Go, a new monetization plan for creators, allows influencers to earn commissions by promoting local businesses, primarily hotels and accommodations [2][4] Group 2: Market Trends - TikTok is enhancing its search functionality to improve local information accessibility, including user reviews and ratings for locations tagged in videos [5] - The global local services market is projected to grow from $3.7 trillion in 2024 to nearly $10 trillion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.32% [9] - The competition in local services is intensifying, with major players like Douyin and Meituan aggressively expanding their offerings in China [6][7] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - TikTok's initial attempts to launch local services in Southeast Asia faced challenges due to supply chain and cultural differences, but the U.S. market may present a more favorable environment [8][9] - The integration of local services with existing platforms like Yelp and Uber Eats highlights the competitive landscape TikTok is entering [9] - TikTok's strategy to capture the local services market in the U.S. could provide a significant advantage, especially in the absence of strong competitors like Meituan [9]

Core Insights - Douyin's local life service is set to launch a nationwide order push on August 16, referred to as "8.16 Life Service Big Day" [1] - Some provinces have set a daily transaction target of nearly 200 million, indicating a growth rate that is almost double compared to regular peak periods [1] - Douyin has notified its direct-operated cities to prepare for full staff overtime, indicating a significant operational push [1] Company Strategy - Douyin will provide inventory support for group-buying merchants, estimated at 10% of transaction value, while consumer subsidies will continue in the form of coupons [1] - The initiative aims to promote in-store consumption and enhance the summer cultural tourism economy by encouraging users to experience offline dining and activities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Airbnb delivered a solid Q2 financial report, but its market value dropped by up to 10.1% on the same day, attributed to declining investor confidence in its "local living services" prospects [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2, Airbnb recorded 134 million nights and experiences booked, a 7% year-over-year increase; revenue reached $3.1 billion, up 13%; adjusted EBITDA was $1 billion, with a profit margin of 34%, surpassing last year's 32.5% [3] - Regional growth varied, with Latin America and Asia-Pacific growing around 10%, Europe and the Middle East showing single-digit growth, and North America experiencing low single-digit growth [3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Booking.com expanded its alternative accommodation offerings to 8.4 million listings and 114 million nights booked, reaching 84% and 85% of Airbnb's respective figures, indicating increased pressure on Airbnb [4] - Airbnb's strategy focuses on exclusive listings, which may conflict with hosts' interests who prefer multi-channel listings, potentially limiting Airbnb's growth in nights booked and GMV [4][5] Group 3: Local Living Services - The report highlighted that 10% of service orders were local, but this represents only a small fraction of total orders, suggesting limited traction in local services [6][8] - CEO Brian Chesky's goal of increasing user frequency by tenfold remains distant, as the current local order volume is significantly low compared to expectations [7] - Airbnb's approach to local living services includes self-designed products and a focus on community engagement, but it requires time to validate its effectiveness [7][8] Group 4: Valuation and Market Position - Despite being a major player in local bookings, local orders constitute only about 1% of total production, which is insufficient to support Airbnb's self-positioning as a "local living inspiration platform" [8] - The company aims for local orders to reach 10% as an initial target, with a mid-term goal of 30%-50% to enhance its valuation narrative [8]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "My Express" service by Douyin aims to enhance user experience by integrating logistics services directly into the platform, thereby reducing reliance on external courier companies and improving overall customer satisfaction and retention in e-commerce [5][6][7]. Group 1 - The "My Express" service currently supports tracking for Jitu Express and will integrate more courier companies in the future [2]. - The service allows users to manage receiving and sending packages directly within Douyin, which consolidates various functions like payment and ride-hailing, enhancing the platform's utility [5]. - By offering a complete process from ordering to logistics tracking and returns, Douyin significantly lowers user operational costs and may increase satisfaction and repurchase intentions [6]. Group 2 - The testing of the "My Express" service indicates Douyin's strategy to gain more control in the competitive landscape of e-commerce and local services [7].

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou is launching an independent "takeout" entry on its group buying page to capture a share of the takeout market, indicating a strategic move to enhance its local life services [1][3]. Group 1: New Features and User Experience - The new "takeout" feature is currently in a testing phase, with users experiencing frequent operational errors when trying to access it [1]. - Users can select "takeout" to place orders, which will redirect them to third-party mini-programs for delivery services [3]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - Kuaishou's foray into the takeout sector is not its first; it previously partnered with Meituan in December 2021 to create a seamless consumer experience through content marketing and online transactions [3]. - The partnership with Meituan was further upgraded in July 2022, expanding their collaboration to cover a broader range of cities and stores, focusing on enhancing user experience [3]. Group 3: Market Performance - Kuaishou's local life services have shown significant growth, with the number of users paying for takeout items increasing over threefold in Q2 of this year, highlighting the platform's potential to attract new customers [4]. - With 700 million monthly active users, Kuaishou is exploring extensive collaboration opportunities with takeout merchants and service providers [4].

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou has launched an independent "takeout" entry on its "group purchase" page, expanding its local life services to include food delivery options from various popular brands [1] Group 1: New Features and Offerings - The new "takeout" entry allows users to access a page called "Takeout Worry-Free Purchase," featuring categories such as hamburgers, pizzas, coffee, and fast food [1] - The products are categorized into "available for takeout and dine-in" and "takeout only," with most "takeout only" items sourced from Meituan [1] Group 2: Collaboration and Business Model - Kuaishou's takeout offerings are primarily based on third-party collaborations, focusing on promoting quality dining products [1] - The company plans to expand its offerings to include more merchants and product categories in the future [1] Group 3: Performance Metrics - In the second quarter of this year, the number of paying users for Kuaishou's local takeout products increased by over 300% compared to the previous quarter [1]