Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the pig market this week may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will return to a short - term oscillatory pattern. The LH2509 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 14,100 - 14,500 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of live pigs may experience a double - reduction in pigs and meat this week after the May Day holiday. The demand is also affected by the post - holiday decline in consumer enthusiasm. The market is expected to be in a state of double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will return to an oscillatory pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the group farms' slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market at the end of the month [8]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in large - pig slaughter and a double - reduction in supply and demand. The spot price is short - term oscillatory and weak, and the futures follow a similar pattern [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The year - on - year decline in domestic live pig inventory and the limited further decline in domestic live pig spot prices [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: The pessimistic expectation of the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the entry of pig and pork consumption into the off - season after May Day [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - side Data**: As of March 31, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [8]. - **Price Data**: The national average spot price is 15,370 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is 1,000 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [8]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [8].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic pigs may decrease in both quantity and meat after the May Day holiday, and the demand for fresh pork is also suppressed. However, the tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. Overall, the market may see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week, and the pig price is expected to return to a volatile pattern. The LH2509 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content is provided in the given text. 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in large - pig slaughter. The supply and demand of pigs both decline, and the spot price fluctuates weakly in the short term, with the futures following a similar pattern [10]. - After the May Day holiday, pork demand weakens in the short term. The spot price of live pigs fluctuates weakly due to the double - reduction in supply and demand, but the decline may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [10]. - The domestic pig - farming profit remains at a low level but still exists in the short term. The enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter is relatively high in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term expectations of live - pig futures and spot prices [10]. - The spot price of live pigs may fluctuate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will generally maintain a weakly volatile pattern. When the market stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and recovery in demand [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and the limited further decline in domestic live - pig spot prices [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: The pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war and the entry of pig and pork consumption into the off - season after May Day [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh - meat demand [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: After the May Day holiday, the supply and demand of pigs both decrease. The market may see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week, and the pig price is expected to return to a volatile pattern [8]. - **Base Difference**: The national average spot price is 14,560 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is 555 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [8]. - **Inventory**: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, which is bullish [8]. - **Market Trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, which is bullish [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: After the May Day holiday, the supply and demand of pigs both decrease. The pig price is expected to return to a range - bound pattern this week, with the LH2509 contract of live pigs fluctuating around 13,800 - 14,200 [8]. 5. Position Data - The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The reserve policy stabilizes pig prices and boosts confidence, and the phased reduction in volume and weight by enterprises supports the rebound of spot and futures prices. However, in the medium to long term, pig supply is expected to increase, demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Futures are currently in a rebound, but are still affected by the off - season demand and loose supply - demand in the long run [9] Group 4: Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures: On the 25th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened flat, fluctuated higher, and closed positive. The highest was 14,015 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,930 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,000 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 813 lots to 164,612 lots. - Spot: On the 25th, the national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 14.48 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - Demand: The fat - to - standard price spread remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment was low, only a small amount entered the market, mostly in a wait - and - see state, weakening the support for prices. With rising temperatures, terminal demand weakened, slaughter enterprise orders were average, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume remained low. On June 25th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 143,200 heads, down 100 heads from the previous day and 3,300 heads from a week ago. - Supply: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May. The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. Currently, enterprises are reducing volume and weight in a phased manner, the slaughter volume of large pigs is declining, and the slaughter weight has decreased slightly [9] 2. Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 8.57% [10] 3. Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% and a year - on - year increase of 14.3% - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous ten - day period - As of the week of June 19th, the national average slaughter weight was 128.28 kg, a decrease of 0.54 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42% - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous ten - day period. The price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of June 19th was 0.07 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous week [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the May Day holiday, the supply and demand of live pigs are expected to decrease. The market may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price is expected to return to a short - term oscillatory pattern. The LH2509 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,700 - 14,100 [8]. - The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation, and the overall consumer willingness of residents has declined after the May Day holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. However, the additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of live pigs show that after the May Day holiday, the enthusiasm for domestic slaughter has weakened. It is expected that the supply of pigs and pork will decrease this week. The demand is also weak due to the end of the holiday and the pessimistic macro - environment. Overall, the market may see a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will return to an oscillatory pattern. The base price shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures. The inventory indicates that as of March 31, the live pig inventory decreased, and as of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was stable. The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. It is expected that the pig price will oscillate in the range of 13,700 - 14,100 for the LH2509 contract [8]. 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic live pig consumption market has entered a off - season, with a decrease in the slaughter of large pigs. The supply and demand of live pigs have both decreased, and the spot price is oscillating weakly in the short term, with the futures following the same pattern [10]. - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork has weakened in the short term. The spot price of live pigs is oscillating weakly due to the double - reduction in supply and demand, but the decline may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [10]. - The domestic live pig breeding profit remains at a low level, but there is still a short - term profit. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is still good in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [10]. - The spot price of live pigs may oscillate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will generally maintain an oscillatory and weak pattern in the short term. When the price stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and the recovery in demand [10]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: The domestic live pig inventory has decreased year - on - year, and the room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price may be limited [11]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the consumption of live pigs and pork has entered an off - season after May Day [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: As of March 31, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [8]. - **Price**: The average national spot price is 14,160 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is 265 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures [8]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand fundamentals of the pig market have not improved substantially. Although the short - term price is supported by factors such as farmers' reduced sales and increased second - fattening, the overall supply is still loose due to weakened terminal consumption, group farms' weight reduction and increased supply, and active sales by social farms [7]. - The pig production capacity is sufficient. Although the number of breeding sows has declined slightly, it is still above the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased. If pork consumption does not grow significantly, the room for pig price increase before September 2025 may be limited [7]. - In the short term, the improvement of market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market. The resistance level of the main contract is around 14,000. For options, out - of - the - money call options can be sold [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Fundamental Situation**: The national average pig slaughter price was 14.12 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.63%. The supply - demand relationship remained loose. The number of breeding sows in April 2025 was 40.38 million, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The production capacity was sufficient, and the pressure on pig slaughter in the later period was still large [7]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The supply in the pig market is sufficient in the current and future periods, and the price is under downward pressure. The short - term market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market, and the resistance level of the main contract is 14,000. Out - of - the - money call options can be sold [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Pig Futures and Spot Prices**: The national average pig slaughter price was 14.12 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 yuan/kg and a week - on - week increase of 1.07%. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, and the market supply - demand remains loose [12]. - **Futures Spreads**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - **Pig Standard - Fat and Gross - White Price Differences**: The price of standard pigs was mainly supported by market sentiment, and the price of large pigs increased. The standard - fat price difference widened slightly compared with last week [29]. - **Prices of Piglets and Binary Sows**: The average price of 7 - kg weaned piglets was 445.71 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 4.98% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.00%. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [33]. - **Price of Culled Sows**: The average price of culled sows was 10.50 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.02%. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted next week [36]. 3.3. Production Capacity - **Inventory of Breeding Sows**: In April 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million, a decrease of 400,000 compared with December 2024. In May, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly. It is expected that the inventory may not increase in June [40][44]. - **Elimination Volume of Breeding Sows**: In May, the elimination volume of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. It is expected that the elimination volume may be stable and difficult to decrease in June [48]. - **Inventory Proportion of Breeding Sows**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. 3.4. Supply Side - **Inventory of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased. It is expected that the inventory may decrease in June [55]. - **Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased. It is expected that the actual slaughter volume may increase in June [58]. - **Inventory Structure of Commercial Pigs**: In May 2025, the inventory proportion of 7 - 49 kg piglets decreased, the inventory of 140 - kg and above large pigs decreased, and the inventory of 90 - 140 kg pigs increased slightly [61]. - **Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs**: The national average slaughter weight of foreign - ternary pigs was 123.78 kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%. It is expected that the slaughter weight may continue to decrease slowly next week [64]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Pig Slaughter Volume**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - **Cold Storage Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: Terminal consumption is weak, and the cold storage rate of frozen products is at a low level. The domestic frozen products are in the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices is limited [73]. - **Operating Rate and Fresh Sales Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises this week was 27.97%, a week - on - week increase of 0.75 percentage points. It is expected that the operating rate may decline in the future due to weak demand [76]. - **Substitute Prices**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. 3.6. Cost and Profit - **Profit of Pig Breeding and Slaughtering**: The weekly average profit of self - breeding and self - raising mode was 61.11 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 9.4 yuan/head. The weekly average loss of the mode of purchasing piglets increased to 53.71 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 25.16 yuan/head [89]. - **Gross Profit of Slaughtering and Feed - to - Meat Ratio**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: The current pig - to - grain ratio is 5.86, with little change. It is expected to be stable with a slight decrease next week [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage policy has stabilized the pig price and boosted confidence, leading to short - term rebounds in futures and spot prices. However, in the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs continues to increase, while demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. The futures market is currently in a rebound phase, but in the long run, it is affected by the off - season demand and the relatively loose supply - demand situation, and the sustainability of future purchase and storage policies needs attention [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: On the 17th, the main 2509 contract of live pig futures opened flat, fluctuated slightly higher, and closed positive. The highest was 13,855 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,755 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,815 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 1,732 lots to 163,288 lots. The national average price of foreign three - way pigs was 14.23 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [9] - **Market Analysis**: On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment was low, and most were in a wait - and - see state, weakening the support for prices. With rising temperatures, terminal demand weakened, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises were average, with low operating rates and slaughter volumes. On June 17th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 146,000 heads, an increase of 500 heads from the previous day and 4,600 heads from a week ago. On the supply side, according to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May, and the slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. Farmers slaughtered normally, the slaughter volume of large pigs decreased, and the slaughter weight decreased slightly. On the policy side, on June 11th, the central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage had a listed competitive trading volume of 10,000 tons, with a transaction price of 20.3 - 20.8 yuan/kg for No. 2 - 4 meat [10] 3.2 Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 8.57% [11][13] 3.3 Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% and a year - on - year increase of 14.3% - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous ten - day period - As of the week of June 13th, the average slaughter weight of sample live pigs was 128.82 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.01% - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous ten - day period. In the week of June 12th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.06 yuan/jin, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin [19]

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 17, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The central reserve frozen pork purchase policy has stabilized pig prices and boosted confidence, leading to short - term rebounds in futures and spot prices. However, in the medium to long term, the supply of pigs is increasing while demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Futures contracts are currently at a discount to the spot, and the medium - to - long - term market is still affected by the off - season demand and loose supply - demand. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of future purchase policies [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: On the 16th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then fluctuated lower after a short - term rise, and closed in the red at the end of the session. The highest price was 13,850 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,750 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The total position of the index decreased by 1,223 lots to 161,556 lots. The national average price of ternary pigs was 14.21 yuan/kg, up 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. - **Analysis**: On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment was low, mostly in a wait - and - see state, weakening the support for prices. As the temperature rises, terminal demand weakens, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, with the operating rate and slaughter volume remaining low. On the 16th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 145,500 heads, 1,000 heads less than the previous day and 27,000 heads more than a week ago. On the supply side, according to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May, and the slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. The large - pig slaughter volume declined, and the slaughter weight decreased slightly. On the policy side, on June 11, the central government conducted a tender for the purchase of 10,000 tons of frozen pork, with the transaction price of No. 2 - 4 pork ranging from 20.3 to 20.8 yuan/kg [10]. 2. Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 8.57% [11][13]. 3. Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% and a year - on - year increase of 14.3% [19]. - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous ten - day period [19]. - As of the week of June 13, the average slaughter weight of sample pigs was 128.82 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.01% [19]. - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous ten - day period. The price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of June 12 was 0.06 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [19].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-06-16 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，五一小长假结束，国内出栏积极性减弱生猪价格节前小幅反弹节后或回归弱势 ，预计节后本周供给或猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期偏悲观，五一假期结束居民整体 消费意愿热情回落，压制短期鲜猪肉消费，前期中国对美国和加拿大猪肉进口加征关税，提振市场 信心。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期回归震荡格局。关注月中集团场出栏节奏变 化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价13990元/吨，2509合约基差200元/吨，现货升水期货。偏多。 ...

大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-06-10 生猪： CONTENTS 目 录 1. 基本面：供应方面，五一小长假结束，国内出栏积极性减弱生猪价格节前小幅反弹节后或回归弱势 ，预计节后本周供给或猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期偏悲观，五一假期结束居民整体 消费意愿热情回落，压制短期鲜猪肉消费，前期中国对美国和加拿大猪肉进口加征关税，提振市场 信心。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期呈震荡偏弱格局。关注月中集团场出栏节奏 变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价13910元/吨，2509合约基差435元/吨，现货升水期货。偏多。 3. 库存：截至3月31日，生猪存栏量41731万头，环比减少0.8%，同比减少2.2% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week after the May Day holiday, and the market may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand. The pig price is expected to be in a short - term volatile and weak pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly group's slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [8]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation also shows some bullish factors, but the price on the disk is below the 20 - day moving average and moving down, and the main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish. The expected price range of the LH2509 contract is around 13,400 - 13,800 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - After the May Day holiday, the enthusiasm for domestic pig slaughter decreased, and the pig price may return to a weak state after a slight pre - holiday rebound. The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation, and the overall consumer enthusiasm has declined after the holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. However, the additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence [8]. 3.2 Recent News - The additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market entered the off - season, with a decrease in the slaughter of large pigs. The supply and demand of pigs have both decreased, and the spot price is in a short - term volatile and weak pattern, with the futures following the same trend [10]. - The demand for pork has weakened in the short term after the May Day holiday. The spot price of pigs is volatile and weak due to the double - reduction in supply and demand, but the decline space may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [10]. - The domestic pig farming profit remains at a low level, with short - term profits still available. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is still good in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [10]. - The spot price of pigs may be volatile and weak after the May Day holiday, and the futures will generally maintain a volatile and weak pattern in the short term. When it stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and the recovery in demand [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and the limited further decline space of domestic pig spot prices [11]. - Bearish factors: The pessimistic expectation of the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the entry of pig and pork consumption into the off - season after May Day [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [8]. - The report also provides data on pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from May 22 to May 30, including prices of different contracts and spot prices in different regions [12]. 3.5 Position Data The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing [8].