智通财经APP获悉，国际知名投行巴克莱（Barclays）近期表示，在经历了创纪录的估值下调和迅速的重估之后，美国大型科技股 的交易价格仍比2024年底时低4倍左右 ；它们在2025年第一季度令人瞩目的收益证实了关键增长驱动力依然稳固。标普500指数中 除科技股以外的成分股估值在抛售期间表现更为坚挺，并且尽管消费者板块盈利疲软，其估值已实现超跌反弹。 图 1. 标普 500 指数非科技股估值已完全恢复；大型科技股尽管在 2025 年第一季度出色业绩后重估，但估值仍较年初低 4 倍远期 市盈率（Fwd PE） 尽管关税带来的不确定性可能已过峰值，但消费者和企业在关税实施前的提前采购行为，掩盖了部分尚未在宏观经济硬数据中体 现的经济损害。2025 年第一季度收益好于预期，但在非必需消费品（不含亚马逊）和必需消费品板块中，消费者疲软的迹象明 显，这些板块是少数几个出现每股收益同比收缩以及运营杠杆为负的板块。 鉴于宏观经济硬数据依然稳健、财政赤字担忧加剧且美联储不急于降息，10 年期美国国债收益率上升给股票估值带来挑战。 美国股市（标普 500 指数）因近期贸易紧张局势缓和迹象，几乎抹去了年初至今的所有跌幅。标普50 ...

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A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 14.21, with a median of 13.36 and a maximum of 30.60 for the Shanghai Composite Index[10] - The PE (TTM) excluding financials and oil & gas is 21.22, indicating a higher valuation when these sectors are excluded[7] - The A-share market's risk premium rate is currently at 3.78%[16] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 9.94, with a median of 10.23 and a maximum of 22.67[59] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 21.07, reflecting a significant valuation compared to other sectors[60] U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 has a current PE (TTM) of 24.83, with a median of 20.82 and a maximum of 41.99[80] - The NASDAQ Index has a current PE (TTM) of 36.57, indicating a high valuation relative to historical averages[88] Sector-Specific Valuations - Non-bank financials, metals, and food & beverage sectors in A-shares are currently at historically low PE levels, while sectors like computing and steel are at historically high PE levels[21] - The median PB (LF) for banks is 0.70, indicating a low valuation compared to historical standards[99]

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： czy710 来源：雪球 2021年布油均价71美元 ， 中海油扣非利润782亿元 ， 2022年上半年布油均价约100美元 ， 中海油最低股价8.6港元 ， 对应市值约3600亿元 ， 扣非市盈率约3600除782等于4.6倍 。 2024年布油均价80美元 ， 中海油扣非利润1459亿元 ， 若布油均价71美元 ， 中海油扣非利润 约下降214亿元至1245亿元 ， 2025年上半年最低股价15.5港元 ， 对应布油均价跌至60美元以 下 ， 市值约6852亿元 ， 扣非市盈率约6852除1245等于5.5倍 ， 三年税后分红4.15港元每股 ， 三年投资回报约 （ 15.5 + 4.15 ） 除8.6等于2.28倍 ， 年化复合回报率约31% 。 2021一2024在布油均价71美元下 ， 中海油年油气产量由5.73亿桶增加至7.268亿桶 ， 年均增 速约8.2% ， 年扣非利润由782亿元增至1245亿元 ， 年均增长速度约16.8% 。 2022年上半年布油均价100美元跌至2025年上半年布油均价约70 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P 500 index is down approximately 5% at the start of 2025, indicating investor concerns about the economy [1] - Stocks are experiencing a significant decline, reflecting broader economic worries [1] Group 2: Deckers Outdoor - Deckers Outdoor is the worst-performing stock on the S&P 500, down 46% [3] - The company reported a 17% revenue growth in Q4 2024, with net sales of $1.8 billion, but analysts were not satisfied with its guidance projecting 15% growth for the current year [3][4] - The stock was previously trading at over 35 times its trailing earnings but has since dropped to about 18 times [4] - Economic uncertainties, including trade wars and tariffs, pose risks to Deckers' business, and there is potential for guidance cuts [5] Group 3: Tesla - Tesla is the second worst-performing stock, down 38%, facing challenges due to questionable growth prospects and controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk [6] - The company's automotive revenue fell by 8% in Q4, totaling $19.8 billion, with profits declining by 71% year over year to $2.3 billion [7] - Tesla's stock is trading at over 90 times its estimated future earnings, indicating it remains highly expensive with potential for further decline [8] Group 4: On Semiconductor - On Semiconductor is the third worst-performing stock, down 36%, primarily affected by economic headwinds in the automotive sector [9] - The company reported sales of $7.1 billion in 2024, a 14% decline year over year, suggesting a challenging recovery ahead [10] - On Semiconductor trades at a relatively modest valuation of 16 times next year's estimated earnings, presenting a potential long-term buying opportunity [10][11] - The long-term growth prospects for semiconductor companies are significant, with On Semiconductor's stock at multiyear lows, indicating potential for future recovery [11]

今天行情好啊，港股势如破竹，a股稳中有升，最重要的是周五，我喜欢周五大涨，涨一天算三天。 恒生科技指数今天爆升6.5%，双倍反包昨天的阴线，中概股彻底支棱起来了。还记得我上周说过中概股的合理估值是向上30%嘛，当时正好很多人套了好 几年的恒科etf刚解套，犹豫要不要走，我画的这个饼让一些老读者咬牙决定留下来再看看。 我觉得比较合理的状态就是一半信，一半怀疑，半信半疑的做交易，觉得情绪过热，股票拿着烫手了，可以少少卖一些，但大的交易节奏还是根据 中期目标来执行。这种两头不靠的交易风格容易钝化曲线，避免自己陷入巨大困境，反之那些在中国股市做的很决绝的人，炒股生涯肯定惊涛骇 浪，因为A股虽然回报率最低，但是波动率最高，它赚钱效应虽然很差，但却是最刺激的。 能够长期在这样的股市里沉淀下来，并研究出一套适合自己的交易方法论的股民，最差也算半个赌徒。 …… 昨天写到了港澳银行开卡的新闻，一些新读者还是对离岸卡概念一团浆糊。这也不怪他们，大部分中国人这辈子都没怎么单独出过国，自然也就接触不到 外汇防火墙。 其实我自己当时也在思想斗争，去年10月8日已经翻红有盈利了，就是因为不甘心没走，又滚犊子滚回粪坑了。无论港股还是a股， ...