Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" came into effect on August 1, raising concerns about potential scams related to stablecoins as investor interest surges [1] Group 1: Regulatory Impact - The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has observed a significant increase in investor reactions, indicating heightened awareness and concern regarding the risks associated with stablecoins [1] - The SFC emphasizes the need for rational investor behavior, warning that overconfidence may lead to falling victim to scams [1] Group 2: Investor Complaints - There were 265 complaints related to virtual asset trading in the first half of this year, with a focus on overseas investments and issues such as scams, asset theft, and frozen funds [1] - The complaints primarily involve overseas investors reporting financial losses due to various fraudulent activities and platform issues [1]

Group 1 - Several brokerages in Hong Kong have been approved to provide virtual asset trading services, leading to significant gains in related ETFs, with some increasing over 10% [1][2] - The newly launched Huatai-PB CSI A500 ETF saw a net inflow of 11.279 billion yuan, surpassing a total scale of 20 billion yuan, becoming the largest ETF tracking the CSI A500 index [1][3] - The total scale of stock ETFs has returned to over 3 trillion yuan, reflecting a recovery in the market [4] Group 2 - The approval of virtual asset trading services has positively impacted the market sentiment, with financial technology-themed ETFs experiencing substantial gains [2] - The oil and gas sector faced declines due to international oil price adjustments, with several ETFs in this category dropping around 4% [2] - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly Hong Kong innovative drugs, attracted significant capital inflows, with related ETFs seeing over 1 billion yuan in net inflows [3] Group 3 - The market outlook for the second half of the year suggests a return to profit-driven growth, supported by low domestic interest rates and favorable global capital flows [5] - The current market structure indicates a focus on financials and growth sectors, with stablecoins and defense industries emerging as key catalysts [6] - The technology sector, particularly in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, is expected to see continued investment and growth opportunities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong has officially begun, with a limited number of licenses expected to be granted, likely to major banks and financial institutions [1][4][5]. Group 1: License Application and Eligibility - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has set specific criteria for stablecoin issuer license applications, including financial conditions, personnel qualifications, reserve assets, and custody requirements [1][3]. - Major banks such as Bank of China (Hong Kong) and Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) are expected to be among the first to apply for stablecoin licenses due to regulatory compliance and business needs [1][5]. - The initial phase of license issuance is expected to be cautious, with only a few licenses (possibly 2-3) being granted [4][6]. Group 2: Role of Financial Institutions - Securities firms are likely to focus on trading, custody, financing, and consulting related to stablecoins, rather than applying for stablecoin issuer licenses themselves [2][9]. - A total of 44 financial institutions have upgraded their virtual asset trading licenses, with most being local securities firms [12][13]. - The upgrade of trading licenses is a prerequisite for firms to offer services related to stablecoins and other virtual assets [13][14]. Group 3: Application Scenarios and Market Potential - The application scenarios for stablecoins include digital asset trading, cross-border payments in global trade, and traditional asset tokenization [7][8]. - The use of stablecoins in different regions varies, with financial applications being more prominent in Europe and North America, while B2B trade is expected to be a focus in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [8]. - The potential for stablecoins as a stable medium of exchange and value storage tool in virtual asset trading is highlighted, with firms like Futu Securities reporting increased trading volumes and customer engagement [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The market is keen on the emergence of offshore RMB-denominated stablecoins, with recent developments indicating a growing interest in this area [15][16]. - The commercial model for stablecoins remains unclear, and there are concerns about market speculation and the safety of reserve assets [16].

Group 1: Agricultural Policy - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, along with ten other departments, has released an implementation plan to promote agricultural product consumption, aiming to effectively expand consumption in this sector [1] Group 2: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index ADR fell by 0.21%, closing at 25,334.64 points, down 53.71 points from the Hong Kong market [2] - The Dow Jones increased by 208.01 points, or 0.47%, closing at 44,901.92 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also saw gains of 50.36 points (0.24%) and 25.30 points (0.40%) respectively [2] Group 3: Financial Data - The Ministry of Finance reported that the stamp duty on securities transactions reached 78.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 54.1% [3] - National public budget revenue for the first half of the year was 115,566 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year [3] Group 4: AI and Technology Developments - The "AI Investment Alliance" was officially established during the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, with members including major companies and institutions like China Telecom and Tsinghua University [4] - Tesla's third-generation robot is set to enter the Chinese consumer market by 2025, with plans for mass production of 1 million units within five years [6] - Kuaishou's AI has launched a new feature called "Ling Animation Canvas," enhancing creative collaboration and visualization for creators [7] Group 5: Corporate Actions - Fushi Financial's subsidiary has applied for a license to conduct regulated activities related to virtual asset trading in Hong Kong [8] - Giant Star Legend plans to raise approximately 324 million HKD through a share placement at a discount of about 19.91% [9] - First Capital Securities is planning to list in Hong Kong, potentially becoming the 14th "A+H" stock brokerage [10] Group 6: Earnings Forecasts - Laoshu Gold anticipates a net profit of approximately 2.23 to 2.28 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 279% to 288% [13]

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about its potential in the cross-border payment sector, highlighting its merchant accumulation, brand recognition, and market share growth potential, with a target price of HKD 17.3, indicating a potential upside of 40% from the latest closing price [1] Group 1: Business Overview - The company's digital payment business is divided into global payments, primarily serving cross-border e-commerce sellers, and domestic payments, catering to enterprise clients [1] - For 2024, the company's total payment volume (TPV) is projected to reach CNY 3.3 trillion, with global and domestic payment TPV expected to be CNY 281.5 billion and CNY 3.0 trillion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 63% and 65% [1] - Total revenue for 2024 is forecasted at CNY 1.31 billion, a 28% increase year-on-year, with global payments contributing 70% to digital payment revenue [1] Group 2: Market Position and Competition - The cross-border payment service market is relatively fragmented, with key competitors including Payoneer, PingPong, and others [1] - The company's global payment TPV is expected to account for 13.1% of China's cross-border e-commerce export value in 2024, up from 9.4% in 2023 [1] Group 3: Future Opportunities - The company has obtained a Virtual Asset Trading Platform (VATP) license, positioning it for future opportunities in virtual asset trading and stablecoin issuance [2] - Stablecoins are anticipated to be utilized in cross-border trade for small currency payments and settlements, addressing issues such as long settlement cycles and high fees [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - For 2025, the overall TPV is expected to grow by 27%, with global payments and domestic payments projected to increase by 45% and 25%, respectively [2] - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated to reach CNY 1.63 billion, a 24% year-on-year increase, with a stable gross margin of 52% [2] Group 5: Valuation - The company employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a target price of HKD 17.3, which includes a valuation of HKD 16.0 from its core business and HKD 1.3 from its equity stake in a connected company [3] - The company is viewed positively due to its growth in TPV, revenue, and profit improvement prospects, alongside innovations in cross-border payment technology [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on LianLian Digital with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 17.3, representing a potential upside of 40% from the latest closing price of HKD 12.42 [6]. Core Insights - LianLian Digital is positioned as a leading 2B digital payment service provider, focusing on cross-border payment solutions for e-commerce merchants. The company has a strong potential for market share growth due to its established brand and merchant base [2][11]. - The company has obtained a Virtual Asset Trading Platform (VATP) license, which may open up future business opportunities in virtual asset trading and stablecoin issuance [3][12]. - The financial outlook is positive, with projected total revenue of HKD 16.3 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24% [3][5]. Company Overview - LianLian Digital primarily offers digital payment solutions, including global and domestic payment services. The company has served over 5.9 million merchants and achieved a total payment volume (TPV) of approximately HKD 3.3 trillion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 65% [11][45]. - The company has a diversified revenue stream, with digital payment services contributing 88% of total revenue in 2024 [18]. Financial Performance - In 2024, LianLian Digital reported total revenue of HKD 13.1 billion, a 28% increase from the previous year. The global payment segment contributed 70% of the digital payment revenue [2][18]. - The company achieved an adjusted net profit of HKD 79 million in 2024, marking its first profitable year [24][30]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - LianLian Digital holds a significant market share in the cross-border payment sector, with its global payment TPV accounting for approximately 13.1% of China's cross-border e-commerce export value in 2024 [2][45]. - The competitive landscape in the cross-border payment industry is fragmented, with key players including Payoneer, PingPong, and others [2][11]. Future Opportunities - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for digital payment solutions in the cross-border e-commerce market, which is projected to reach USD 1.2 trillion by 2024 [46]. - The potential issuance of stablecoins could provide additional revenue streams, particularly in cross-border trade scenarios where traditional payment methods face challenges [3][12].

Summary of the Conference Call for Lianlian Digital Company Overview - Lianlian Digital is a leading independent digital payment solution provider in China, holding a market share of 9.1% [2][3] - The company’s main business segments include global payments (60% of revenue), domestic payments (25%), and value-added services (10%) [2][4] Core Business Insights - **Global Payments**: This is the primary revenue source, with a projected transaction volume of 0.28 trillion RMB in 2024 and a fee rate of approximately 0.3% [2][6] - **Domestic Payments**: Targeting B2B clients, the domestic payment transaction volume is expected to reach 3 trillion RMB in 2024, with a low fee rate of about 0.01% [2][8] - **Value-Added Services**: Revenue from value-added services is projected to be 1.5 billion RMB in 2024, accounting for 11% of total revenue [9] Financial Performance - In 2024, Lianlian Digital expects total revenue of 1.3 billion RMB, a 28% year-on-year increase, but will incur a loss of approximately 170 million RMB due to listing expenses and losses from a joint venture with American Express [3][20] - Revenue growth is anticipated to be between 25% and 30% in 2025, reaching 2.6 to 2.7 billion RMB, with a profit forecast of around 1.5 billion RMB due to equity transfer gains [20][23] Market Dynamics - The cross-border payment market is benefiting from global trade growth, increased demand for Chinese exports, and the expansion of e-commerce platforms [3][12] - Small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises prefer third-party payment solutions like Lianlian Digital due to the high costs and regulatory burdens associated with traditional banks [13][14] Strategic Initiatives - Lianlian Digital is actively exploring the application of stablecoins in cross-border payments, leveraging policy support and its licensing advantages [2][5] - The company holds 65 global payment licenses, enhancing its operational capabilities across key markets including mainland China, Hong Kong, Southeast Asia, the US, and the EU [15][17] Future Opportunities - The stablecoin market presents significant opportunities for Lianlian Digital, with potential benefits from issuing its own stablecoin and collaborating with existing ecosystems [18][21] - The company aims to integrate its virtual asset trading platform with payment services to enhance customer stickiness and competitiveness [21][22] Conclusion - Lianlian Digital is positioned for robust growth in the digital payment sector, with a strong focus on cross-border payments and innovative financial solutions. The company is expected to achieve profitability by 2026-2027 as it continues to expand its market presence and optimize its business model [20][22][23]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the non-bank financial sector in China, focusing on the impact of Real World Assets (RWA) and the performance of various financial institutions, particularly insurance companies and securities firms. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **RWA Business Growth**: The RWA business is expected to become a significant growth point for non-bank institutions, with major Chinese securities firms actively pursuing virtual asset trading licenses and tokenized securities issuance, indicating a shift in valuation dynamics for these firms [2][1]. 2. **Incremental Capital Sources**: Large state-owned insurance companies will allocate 30% of their new premiums to A-shares starting in 2025, alongside the expansion of private equity stock investment funds, which will inject significant capital into the market in the second half of the year [3][1]. 3. **Current State of Non-Bank Sector**: The non-bank sector is currently in a low point but has substantial potential for reallocation, with many public funds under-allocated to this sector. Key firms like Ping An and Taikang are highlighted as being undervalued [4][1][5]. 4. **Equity Financing in Securities Firms**: Equity financing remains a case-by-case basis, with high participation from major shareholders. Policy changes are slightly easing restrictions on private placements, but the market impact is limited due to the high involvement of controlling shareholders [6][1]. 5. **Performance of Non-Bank Sector**: Over 60% of listed securities firms reported over 40% growth in performance for the first half of 2025, with some firms like Huaxi Securities and Guolian Minsheng showing exceptional growth rates [8][9]. 6. **RWA On-Chain Development**: The integration of RWA with blockchain technology is seen as a crucial catalyst for growth, with companies like China Taiping Asset Management collaborating to enhance asset tokenization and improve valuation potential [11][1]. 7. **Market Performance and Future Expectations**: The non-bank financial sector is expected to perform strongly, driven by RWA business developments and favorable market conditions, with a recommendation to focus on leading firms in the Hong Kong market [10][1]. 8. **Valuation of China Taiping**: China Taiping is currently undervalued, with a PEB ratio around 0.6 and a significant drop in the cost of liabilities, indicating potential for future growth [18][1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **2DB Market Potential**: The 2DB market is projected to have significant growth potential, with compliance and asset transparency being key focus areas [12][1]. 2. **The Pack's Initial Strategy**: The Pack's investment strategy includes various funds and has established partnerships with significant financial institutions, indicating a robust ecosystem for RWA issuance and distribution [13][1]. 3. **Hong Kong Virtual Asset Market**: Hong Kong is actively developing its virtual asset market, with stablecoins playing a crucial role in enhancing market infrastructure [14][1]. 4. **Global Tokenization Trends**: The global market for tokenization of non-liquid assets is expected to reach $16 trillion by 2030, with Blackrock's BITO serving as a case study for successful implementation [15][1]. 5. **Insurance Product Performance**: Dividend insurance products are performing well, positively impacting the reduction of rigid liability costs for insurance companies [20][1]. 6. **Recommendations for Insurance Stocks**: The recommended order for insurance stocks includes Xinhua Insurance and China Life, with a focus on companies with strong ties to virtual assets [22][1]. 7. **Future Logic for Non-Bank Sector Growth**: The future growth of the non-bank sector is expected to be driven by improvements in asset quality and increased allocations to equities, particularly from insurance premiums [23][1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [7]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" will take effect on August 1, 2025, which is expected to enhance the development of the stablecoin industry in Hong Kong. The U.S. Congress has also passed the "Genius Act" to establish a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, signed into law by President Trump [1][2]. - Short-term, cross-border payment scenarios are anticipated to be significant applications for stablecoins, improving efficiency and reducing costs. Financial technology companies related to cross-border payments are expected to benefit, with a focus on companies like Lianlian Digital [1]. - Long-term, stablecoins are expected to facilitate virtual asset trading and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and security token offerings (STO). Major Chinese brokerages are accelerating their involvement, with firms like Guotai Junan International upgrading their virtual asset trading licenses [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Major indices saw increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.69% and the ChiNext Index up by 3.17% during the week [9]. - The non-bank sector experienced an overall decline, with the non-bank financial index down by 1.24% [9]. Securities Sector - The report highlights a significant increase in trading activity, with a total trading volume of 0.73 trillion shares and a turnover of 9.34 trillion yuan, marking a 6.05% increase week-on-week [17]. - The report notes that the margin trading balance reached 1.90 trillion yuan, a 1.52% increase from the previous week [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on insurance companies such as China Pacific Insurance, New China Life, China Ping An, China Life, and China Property & Casualty Insurance. In the securities sector, it recommends attention to leading firms like CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and China Galaxy Securities [44][45]. - Non-bank institutions to watch include ZhongAn Online, Lianlian Digital, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, and Lianyi Technology [45].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 42.18 CNY, which represents a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 70 times for 2025 [5][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 251 million CNY in the first half of 2025, an increase of about 221 million CNY or 740.95% year-on-year. The non-deducted net profit is projected to be around 183 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.30%. However, the operating revenue is anticipated to decline by 14.59% year-on-year to 2.422 billion CNY [1][2]. - The company is actively optimizing its business structure and strategically reducing some non-core operations, which is expected to enhance its revenue elasticity once the industry recovers [2]. - The company is leveraging its overseas subsidiary, Hengyun Technology, to expand into international markets and is actively developing virtual asset trading systems [3][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily driven by non-recurring gains, which are expected to increase by approximately 170 million CNY compared to the previous year [2]. - The operating revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 2.422 billion CNY, a decrease of 14.59% year-on-year [1]. Business Strategy - Hengyun Technology, the company's overseas subsidiary, is expanding its services to over 250 financial institutions in the Asia-Pacific region, providing diverse technology solutions including trading systems and offshore custody services [3]. - The company has successfully launched a new generation trading system for a Hong Kong brokerage, enhancing transaction efficiency and risk management capabilities [3][9]. - The company is also collaborating with HashKey to explore strategic opportunities in the virtual asset and financial services sectors [9]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 6.929 billion CNY, 7.279 billion CNY, and 7.671 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 1.140 billion CNY, 1.259 billion CNY, and 1.362 billion CNY for the same years [10][11].