据阿根廷央行市场预期调查，阿根廷2025年底的通货膨胀率预计为31.8%，较之前的预测上升了4.3个百 分点。 ...

Group 1 - The Argentine financial market is experiencing a new phase due to the recent foreign exchange liberalization policy implemented by President Milei's government, leading to a stable dollar exchange rate [1][3] - The wholesale dollar price decreased by 4.50 pesos (approximately 0.4%) to 1,169.50 pesos per dollar, with an overall increase of 91.5 pesos (8.5%) since the government relaxed foreign exchange controls on April 11 [3] - The average dollar selling price at banks is reported at 1,193.61 pesos, with a buying price of 1,064.56 pesos, while the informal market (blue dollar) rate fell by 15 pesos (1.2%) to 1,210 pesos, narrowing the gap with the official rate to just 3.5% [3][4] Group 2 - Financial analysis firm GrupoSBS noted that the market is in a price consolidation phase, emphasizing the importance of observing at what level the exchange rate stabilizes to return to a declining inflation trajectory [4] - The central bank has not intervened in the foreign exchange market for eight consecutive trading days, with spot trading volume reaching $683.7 million and international reserves increasing by $89 million to $39.165 billion, the highest level since February 23, 2023 [4] - The Argentine stock market, represented by the S&P Merval index, saw a slight decline of 0.3% to 2,225,243 points, indicating a selective trading environment, while local factors are increasingly influencing the performance of Argentine global bonds [5]

机构：美联储降息的市场定价似乎是合理的 金十数据4月23日讯，Allspring Global Investments的高级投资组合经理诺亚•怀斯表示，市场对美联储 2025年将降息三到四次、到2026年7月将降息五到六次的预期是合理的。"不是因为这是我们的预期，而 是它在两种截然不同但又非常可能的情景之间取得了微妙的平衡。"在第一种情况下，通货膨胀率居高 不下，而经济避免陷入衰退，这意味着美联储将以比市场目前预期更缓慢的速度降息。另一种情况是， 经济下滑，通胀下降，到2025年底可能会有五到六次降息，到2026年7月可能会有八次或更多降息，具 体取决于经济衰退的严重程度。 ...