交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（5.12~5.16） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 上周回顾 沪铝上周出现上涨，上周主力合上涨2.78%，周五收盘报20130元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能，国内 房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，关税恢复之前，全球恐慌情绪 有所好转。国内基本面上，需求进入旺季，等待消费复苏。上周LME库存395450吨，较前周出现小幅减 少，SHFE周库存减13585吨至156080吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | --- | - ...

2025 年，仍暗礁丛生，但风劲帆满。 我们希望能够 通过发起 「 2025 中国企业全球化新势力 100 强榜单」评选活动， 持续寻找 将本土经验升维为全球解决方案的高价值高潜力创新企业，同时也希 望能捕捉到更多兼有中国血脉基因与高瞻远瞩全球化布局战略眼光的「 Born Global 」「 Day One Global 」商业主体。 本次评选设置「引领型」和「成长型」两个报名组别，将从业务运营、财务数 据、本土化布局、海外市场影响力等维度进行综合评选。 目前， 2025 中国企业全球化新势力 100 强榜单评选正式启动，欢迎报名 ▼ 2025 年的全球经济格局，是在关税贸易摩擦的风雨飘摇中 渐进 演变的，我们面临的世界局势较以 往也更为复杂诡谲， 更多变量产生的不确定性如影随形 。但中国企业早已不再局限于 " 跟随者 " 的 定位 ，而是以 " 弄潮儿 " 的姿态引领产业变革，成为推动全球供应链体系重塑升级的关键 角色 。 2023 年，新老出海市场持续分化，全球供应链体系面临重塑。这一年，创业邦发起 「 2023 出海企 业创新价值榜单 TOP100 」 ， 评选出在彼时出海浪潮中经得起 " 惊涛骇浪 " ...

人类所居住的蓝色星球上，地表海洋面积占比约为71%，而海上运输线连接起了五大洲繁忙的世界贸易网络，海运同样是汽车出口远途运输最具效率和 性价比的途径。 眼下，越来越多有规模化出口业务的汽车企业，已经不满足于借助航运公司的货轮排班长周期等待方式运输出口整车，而是直接自己下订单造船，并组 建自有海上汽车船运输船队，来摆脱对运力日益紧张、价格持续上涨的航运公司的依赖，实现让自己的汽车产品更加便捷地点对点到达世界各地的目标。 令行业记忆犹新的是，自2020年以来，全球海运市场正经历了一场剧烈的供需失衡，汽车运输船的日租金犹如坐上了火箭，从专业远洋航运公司原本较 为平稳的平均每集装箱每天1万美元，一路狂飙至15万美元。这场租金的疯涨，背后是全球汽车贸易量的快速复苏与海运运力增长缓慢之间矛盾日益突出的 显现。有研究数据显示，新冠疫情以来，全球汽车贸易量增长了近20%，但专业远洋航运公司的汽车运输船队运力仅增长1% ，供不应求的局面使得运价被 不断推高。 正是在这样的大环境下，丰田、现代等跨国车企的自有汽车运输船队展现出更强的成本控制能力。丰田旗下的丰藤海运凭借长期稳定的运营，将单车远 洋运输成本牢牢控制在800美元以下， ...

印尼禁止煤炭出口，国内煤炭市场或将紧张，国内煤价将提前止跌企稳。 投资建议。当前煤炭价格已经处于预期底部，估值明显偏低，伴随动力煤长协基准提升、焦煤长协价预 计维持高位，资源优质企业具备长期价值，转型企业具备成长空间，板块估值提升开启，1）当前首 推：中国神华、靖远煤电、电投能源、兖矿能源、中国旭阳集团；2）推荐：陕西煤业、淮北矿业、中 煤能源、山西焦煤、潞安环能、兰花科创、盘江股份、平煤股份。 1）事件：根据12月31日印尼政府新规，2022年1月禁止煤炭出口。 2）本次印尼限制煤炭出口，我们认为核心原因在于印尼煤炭产量不及预期，且国内消费量增加，导致 煤炭供不应求。印尼矿产能源部公布最新统计数据显示，截至12月17日印尼煤炭开采量达5.81亿吨，完 成年度产量目标的93%，全年产量预计略低于6.25亿吨目标， 2022 年煤炭产量目标提高到 6.37 ~6.64 亿 吨，但由于国内需求提升，出口潜力将有下降。 3）中国2020年/2021年1-11月进口煤及褐煤30399/29232万吨，其中来自印尼13783/17822万吨，占进口 45%/61%、占国内产量3.6%/4.9%，印尼煤供应对国内影响巨大 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that coal companies are expected to report strong earnings growth for 2021, with profit growth rates of 514%, -125% (turning profitable), 475%, and 62% for various companies, indicating a significant improvement in profitability despite a drop in coal prices due to regulatory measures [1] - The coal price has rebounded significantly, with Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal prices exceeding 1000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 30% increase from the bottom, driven by export restrictions from Indonesia and mandatory inventory replenishment by power plants [1] - The overall economic growth is expected to stabilize, enhancing demand support, which will benefit coal as a primary energy source, alongside a recovery in the coal-coke-steel industry chain [1] Group 2 - High dividends are anticipated to continue, leading to a long-term increase in coal sector valuations, as companies are expected to disclose new shareholder return plans after March 2022 [2] - The capital expenditure in the coal industry has peaked, and with the trend towards "carbon neutrality," capital spending is expected to decline, optimizing the relationship between capital expenditure, cash flow, financials, profits, and dividends [2] - The coal sector is currently at a valuation bottom, with undervalued stocks, and companies with high dividends and those transitioning to green energy are expected to see valuation increases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The solid-state battery technology is gaining significant attention as a next-generation energy storage solution, with Shenzhen making notable advancements in both technology and product development, achieving breakthroughs in safety, energy density, and performance stability [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Developments - Shenzhen's solid-state battery sector is increasingly comprehensive, focusing on material research and process optimization while fostering close collaboration across the supply chain, including material manufacturers, equipment suppliers, and end-users [2]. - In the past year, 16 new solid-state battery products were launched, with Shenzhen's Xinjie Energy and BAK Battery standing out for their innovative achievements [2]. - Xinjie Energy's "Falcon" lithium metal solid-state battery boasts a high energy density of 480Wh/kg, marking a significant breakthrough in the aviation sector [2]. - BAK Battery's semi-solid-state battery is undergoing testing in various markets, including electric vehicles and consumer electronics, with market expansion imminent [2]. Group 2: Strategic Collaborations - Shenzhen Haimeixing and Xinjie Energy signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance equipment development and market promotion over the next five years, strengthening the solid-state battery supply chain [3]. - Xinjie Energy is focusing on low-altitude flying vehicles as a primary application scenario, developing two generations of aviation battery products with energy densities of 320Wh/kg and 380Wh/kg [3]. - Xinjie Energy aims to achieve a solid-state battery energy density breakthrough of 700Wh/kg by 2027 and plans to establish a 1GWh production line by 2026 [3]. Group 3: Material Innovations - Shenzhen Betterray is advancing in multiple solid-state battery technology routes, achieving significant milestones in the commercialization of solid-state battery materials, including the large-scale shipment of LATP solid electrolytes [4]. - Betterray's innovative modification of high-nickel cathode materials using LATP has significantly enhanced performance metrics such as rate capability and thermal stability [4]. Group 4: Export Performance - Shenzhen is accelerating the development of a world-class automotive city, forming a collaborative industrial ecosystem led by key enterprises [5]. - In 2024, Shenzhen's exports of "new three samples" (electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar photovoltaic products) reached 99.69 billion yuan, a growth of 11.5%, with lithium battery exports alone amounting to 65.12 billion yuan [5]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw lithium battery exports totaling 15.66 billion yuan, indicating strong market demand [5]. Group 5: International Expansion Efforts - In April 2023, Shenzhen's Development and Reform Commission, along with the Battery Industry Association, led a delegation of over ten companies to Malaysia to explore market opportunities and establish new partnerships in the renewable energy sector [6].

Group 1 - Green finance acts as a "lubricant" in the era of carbon neutrality, facilitating the flow of social capital towards low-carbon, environmentally friendly, and efficient industries [1] - Green finance is defined as financial services that support environmental improvement, climate change response, and resource efficiency, including various tools like green credit, green bonds, and green insurance [2] - The global rise of green finance is evident, with multiple countries implementing policies to support its development, such as the EU's Green Deal and initiatives in China, the US, and Japan [2] Group 2 - The futures market plays a crucial role in green finance by providing price signals that help businesses manage risks associated with price volatility in green industry-related commodities [3] - Futures markets enhance investor confidence in green projects by offering risk management tools, allowing companies to hedge against price fluctuations in raw materials and carbon emissions [3][4] - Innovations in domestic futures markets, such as options and swaps, provide businesses with diverse risk management choices tailored to their specific needs [3] Group 3 - The price discovery and risk management functions of futures markets can attract more funds and resources into green industries, optimizing resource allocation and enhancing competitiveness [4] - Practical examples include the soybean market, where futures signals guide farmers in crop selection and risk management through insurance and futures contracts [5] - The cotton futures market supports both cotton growers and textile companies in managing price risks while promoting green production practices [5] Group 4 - The natural gas futures market aids in locking in prices for producers and consumers, contributing to infrastructure development and energy transition [6] - The copper futures market allows electronic companies to stabilize production costs while encouraging green production methods through "green copper" standards [6] - Lithium futures markets support the rapid development of the electric vehicle industry by providing price discovery and risk management platforms [6] Group 5 - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is planning to list carbon emission rights futures to help companies manage carbon quota price volatility, promoting a healthy carbon market [7] - Overall, the integration of futures markets and green finance provides robust support for sustainable economic development, guiding funds towards green industries and facilitating the green transition of the real economy [7]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 国际认可加速绿证消费扩容，价改推进重视绿电 长期价值 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 国际绿色电力消费倡议组织（RE100）宣布无条件认可中国绿证，明确企业使用中国绿证不需 要再提供额外证明。标志着我国绿证体系的制度完善与国际互认取得里程碑式突破，助推我国 绿证需求侧加速扩容。长期低位运行的市场需求和绿证价格将得到显著催化，为新能源项目实 现合理收益提供重要支撑。在新能源价格改革持续持续推进的背景下，我们认为各省配套细则 也将承接 136 号文保护存量项目、稳定增量项目收益预期的原则，有助于长远角度新能源发电 的合理健康发展，同时随着绿电消费的加速扩容，绿电公司有望迎来价值重估。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SFC：BQT627 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 [T ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's adjustment of its monetary policy framework indicates a potential shift away from the average inflation targeting (AIT) to a more flexible inflation targeting (IT) model, which could increase the likelihood of interest rate cuts [3][6] - If the Fed adopts the IT model, it will allow for more responsive decision-making based on monthly CPI data, potentially leading to a stronger rate-cutting cycle [6] - Historical precedents show that the Fed's rate-cutting cycles have significant impacts on both the U.S. and global economies, as seen during the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the 2019-2020 pandemic period [6][8] Group 2 - The anticipated rate cuts could stimulate consumer demand and benefit export-oriented manufacturing sectors in China, such as home appliances and semiconductors, especially if U.S.-China trade relations improve [8] - Emerging industries, including green economy projects and cross-border finance, are expected to see rapid growth, creating new job opportunities in high-demand sectors like renewable energy and technology [8] - Investment opportunities in China's A-shares, particularly in solid-state batteries and new energy vehicles, are highlighted, with companies like CATL and BYD identified as having strong growth potential [10]

报告要点 [Table_Summary] 国际绿色电力消费倡议组织（RE100）宣布无条件认可中国绿证，明确企业使用中国绿证不需 要再提供额外证明。标志着我国绿证体系的制度完善与国际互认取得里程碑式突破，助推我国 绿证需求侧加速扩容。长期低位运行的市场需求和绿证价格将得到显著催化，为新能源项目实 现合理收益提供重要支撑。在新能源价格改革持续持续推进的背景下，我们认为各省配套细则 也将承接 136 号文保护存量项目、稳定增量项目收益预期的原则，有助于长远角度新能源发电 的合理健康发展，同时随着绿电消费的加速扩容，绿电公司有望迎来价值重估。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 国际认可加速绿证消费扩容，价改推进重视绿电 长期价值 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 公用 ...