白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰：到本周结束时，我们可能会看到更多的贸易协议。 ...

白宫经济顾问委员会主席Miran：到周末，我们可能会看到更多贸易协议。 ...

在最近几天，我感受到与美国签署关税协议的国家数量正在增加，毕竟，7月9日的截止日期已迫在眉 睫。然而，让人始料未及的是，越南成为亚洲首个选择妥协的国家，与美国达成了一项协议，这无疑让 人感慨"先跪为敬"这个词的真实含义。 根据这些数据，可以清晰地看到，美国才是真正滋养越南经济的"大金主"，而越南对于美国市场的依赖 程度令人担忧。在谈判的桌子上，美国则占尽了主动权，主动性完全集中在他们自己手中。可以说，越 南的这次"先跪为敬"几乎是出于其依赖美国的出口市场，正如其承受20%关税的事实一样，若美国加征 30%的关税，越南也会不得不屈从。 那么，越南签署这份协议对其转口贸易将会产生多大的影响呢？必须承认，越南在这方面显得相当狡 猾。他们优先达成协议，这才是最重要的一步，以确保对美国的出口贸易不出现停滞。而至于转口贸易 的调整，可以在后续时间内逐渐摸索出路。例如，越南可以选择进行"贴牌"生产。在中国制造所需转口 商品的同时，贴上越南品牌，只要不标明"制造于中国"，就可以达到曲线救国的目的。 但细细分析这份协议后，我发现越南实际上签订了一个不平等的条约。消息于7月3日传出，特朗普在其 社交媒体上公布了这一进展。根据他的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on July 8, 2025, including the likely range of resistance and support levels for each contract [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - On July 7, 2025, A - shares fluctuated downward, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 1%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly, while trading volume decreased. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell, and US and European stock markets showed mixed performance [15][16]. - International oil prices rose strongly on July 7, with the US oil and Brent crude oil main contracts posting gains. International precious metal futures closed with mixed results, and London's basic metals closed down across the board [10][11][12]. 2. Futures Contracts Forecast 2.1 Stock Index Futures - On July 8, 2025, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 3927 and 3944 points and support at 3900 and 3879 points [2]. - In July 2025, the main contracts of stock index futures IF, IH, IC, and IM are expected to fluctuate strongly [17]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On July 8, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2509 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 109.18 and 109.25 yuan and support at 109.00 and 108.90 yuan [34]. - The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 is also expected to fluctuate and consolidate on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 121.3 and 121.5 yuan and support at 121.0 and 120.7 yuan [38]. 2.3 Precious Metal Futures - On July 8, 2025, the gold futures main contract AU2510 is likely to fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels at 779.0 and 781.3 yuan/gram, with support at 771.3 and 768.7 yuan/gram [2]. - The silver futures main contract AG2510 is expected to fluctuate strongly on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 8948 and 8994 yuan/kg and support at 8837 and 8814 yuan/kg [3]. 2.4 Base Metal Futures - The copper futures main contract CU2508 is likely to fluctuate strongly on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 79500 and 79800 yuan/ton and support at 79200 and 78900 yuan/ton [3]. - The alumina futures main contract AO2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, with support at 2992 and 2971 yuan/ton and resistance at 3071 and 3084 yuan/ton [3]. - The zinc futures main contract ZN2508 is likely to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 21960 and 21850 yuan/ton, with resistance at 22130 and 22160 yuan/ton [3]. 2.5 Industrial Metal Futures - The industrial silicon futures main contract SI2509 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 8210 and 8320 yuan/ton and support at 7900 and 7820 yuan/ton [3]. - The polysilicon futures main contract PS2508 is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 37250 and 37810 yuan/ton and support at 36380 and 36050 yuan/ton [3]. - The lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2509 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 64000 and 64500 yuan/ton and support at 63300 and 62800 yuan/ton [4]. 2.6 Building Material Futures - The rebar futures main contract RB2510 is likely to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 3041 and 3030 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3065 and 3072 yuan/ton [4]. - The hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2510 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 3163 and 3150 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3195 and 3200 yuan/ton [4]. - The iron ore futures main contract I2509 is likely to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 724 and 720 yuan/ton, with resistance at 736 and 741 yuan/ton [4]. 2.7 Energy Futures - The crude oil futures main contract SC2508 is likely to fluctuate strongly on July 8, 2025, and attack resistance levels at 515 and 519 yuan/barrel, with support at 505 and 502 yuan/barrel [5]. - The fuel oil futures main contract FU2509 is expected to fluctuate strongly on July 8, 2025, and attack resistance levels at 2987 and 3001 yuan/ton, with support at 2957 and 2947 yuan/ton [7]. 2.8 Chemical Futures - The PTA futures main contract TA509 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 4754 and 4780 yuan/ton and support at 4686 and 4664 yuan/ton [7]. - The PVC futures main contract V2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, with support at 4879 and 4858 yuan/ton and resistance at 4907 and 4921 yuan/ton [7]. - The methanol futures main contract MA509 is likely to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 2359 and 2336 yuan/ton, with resistance at 2400 and 2413 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Macro - economic and Policy Information - President Xi Jinping inspected Yangquan Valve Co., Ltd. to understand the situation of industrial transformation and upgrading in Shanxi [8]. - The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress launched an enforcement inspection of the Circular Economy Promotion Law [8]. - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves increased, and foreign exchange reserves also rose [8]. - Nine departments issued the 2025 Work Plan for the Action of Promoting Rural Revitalization through the Housekeeping Service Industry [8]. - US President Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on multiple countries, which will take effect on August 1 [9]. - Goldman Sachs said the Fed may cut policy rates in September [9]. - The EU is seeking to reach a preliminary trade agreement with the US this week [10]. - The Eurozone's July Sentix Investor Confidence Index reached a new high since February 2022, and May's retail sales showed year - on - year growth [10].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the United States has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, which includes a minimum 20% tariff on all Vietnamese exports to the U.S. and a commitment from the U.S. to fully open its market to Vietnam [1][3] - Vietnam is the eighth largest trading partner of the U.S., with a trade surplus exceeding $120 billion in 2024, making it the fourth largest economy with a trade surplus with the U.S. [3] - Approximately 60% of American companies operating in Vietnam support the trade agreement, while 30% express concerns about the redefinition of "transshipment trade," which could lead to increased tariffs on goods processed in Vietnam but originally produced in China [3][6] Group 2 - Cambodia has also reached a tariff agreement with the U.S., becoming the second Southeast Asian country to do so after Vietnam, although specific details of the agreement remain unclear [4][6] - The agreements with Vietnam and Cambodia reflect a pragmatic strategy for these developing countries to negotiate favorable international cooperation conditions amid the complex global economic environment [8] - The U.S. maintains a dominant position in the global economic landscape, making it challenging for smaller countries to confront it directly, thus leading to diplomatic negotiations as a rational decision to protect national economic interests [8]

马来西亚贸易部：马来西亚将继续与美国进行建设性的接触和对话，旨在达成平衡且互利的贸易协议成 果。 ...

泰国财政部：美国希望在贸易协议中扩大泰国市场准入。 ...

特朗普：正接近与印度达成贸易协议。可能会对部分国家调整关税。 ...

标普500股指期货目前跌0.22%，道指期货跌0.3%，纳斯达克100股指期货跌0.18%。 据媒体报道，美国提出贸易协议方案，对欧盟加征10%的关税、附带限制性条款。 但双方尚未敲定协议。 ...

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones dropping nearly 400 points and both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices falling approximately 0.7% [2][5] - Tesla's stock plummeted about 7% following CEO Elon Musk's announcement of plans to form a new political party [12][18] Tariff Updates - President Trump and senior cabinet officials confirmed that new tariffs will take effect on August 1, rather than the previously expected date of July 9 [5][6] - The tariffs are part of a strategy to apply pressure on countries that have not reached agreements with the U.S. [5][6] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that multiple trade agreements are expected to be announced within the next 48 hours [8][10] Tesla's Political Involvement - Elon Musk's political ambitions, including the formation of a new party named the "American Party," have raised concerns among investors [14][16] - Musk's increased political engagement is viewed negatively by many Tesla investors, especially during a critical period for the company [16][17] - The company's second-quarter vehicle deliveries fell 14% year-over-year, missing market expectations, adding to investor anxiety [18]