来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：富国基金） 目录 Part 1：A股市场分析 Part 2：港股市场分析 Part 3：下周宏观事件关注 Part 1 A股市场分析 国内方面，11月制造业PMI数据仍然在荣枯线之下，但边际改善、产需同步回暖，外需的贡献显著，内生动能不足之下，随着12月重磅会议渐近，稳增长 政策预期有所升温，跨年行情或徐徐展开。11月30日，国家统计局公布11月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49.2%、前值49%，边际改善主因外需修复；非制造业 PMI为49.5%、前值50.1%，主因假期效应消退等影响下服务业季节性回调；综合PMI产出指数为49.7%，前值50.0%，在年内首次进入荣枯平衡线以下。具 体来看，制造业PMI在低基数下呈现"弱改善"特征，结构上生产指数表现弱于新订单，10月末中美经贸磋商达成主要成果共识，带动我国外贸环境有所改 善，11月份，新出口订单指数为47.6%，边际回升1.7个百分点，创下半年以来的最大涨幅。向后看，外部的扰动影响消散后，价格低位运行是经济的薄弱 环节，反映内需有待进一步提振，叠加明年作为"十五五"开局之年，稳增长政策"适时加力"的必要性有所提升。伴随着12月政治 ...

Group 1: Securities Industry - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to strengthen classified regulation, providing appropriate relaxation for quality institutions and optimizing risk control indicators to enhance capital utilization efficiency [1] - Huachuang Securities believes the securities industry is shifting from a defensive contraction to an offensive expansion, opening up space for further improvement in ROE [1] - The approval of the merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, along with CICC's integration with Dongxing and Xinda, marks a new phase of "aircraft carrier-level" consolidation in the industry [1] Group 2: Optical Fiber Technology - China Telecom has launched the world's first cross-border hollow-core fiber and ultra-low latency commercial transmission system, achieving a 30% increase in light signal transmission speed and over 40% reduction in equipment processing latency [2] - The hollow-core fiber technology, which uses air and inert gases instead of solid fiber cores, significantly reduces communication latency, making it a promising medium for global optical communication [2] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for hollow-core fiber commercialization is expected to reach 56.52% over the next six years [2] Group 3: Cultivated Diamonds - The 2025 Cultivated Diamond Industry Conference in Zhengzhou signed 30 projects with a total investment of no less than 15 billion yuan, highlighting the rapid growth potential of China's cultivated diamond market [3] - The market size for cultivated diamonds in China is currently around 14 billion yuan, projected to exceed 102.5 billion yuan by 2030 [3] - The demand for diamond heat dissipation technology is expected to grow due to advancements in 5G, AI, and cloud computing, positioning China as a leader in the superhard materials industry [3] Group 4: Cybersecurity - The National Internet Information Office has drafted a risk assessment method for network data security, requiring annual assessments for important data processors [4] - The data security industry in China is transitioning from passive compliance to proactive protection, with a projected market size exceeding 150 billion yuan by 2025 [4] - The market is expected to surpass 1 trillion yuan by 2027 and reach 500 billion yuan by 2030 [4] Group 5: Agriculture - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is accelerating the establishment of a standard system to promote high-quality agricultural development [5] - The focus is on achieving a balance between economic, social, and ecological benefits, transitioning from quantity expansion to quality improvement [5] - The high-quality development of agriculture is expected to enter a "fast lane" with continuous policy support and technological innovation [5] Group 6: Hydrogen Energy - China has successfully developed a 110 kW thermal coupling seawater direct electrolysis hydrogen production system, marking a key breakthrough in engineering applications [6] - This technology addresses the traditional reliance on freshwater resources for hydrogen production and offers innovative pathways for renewable energy development [6] - The technology is expected to achieve large-scale commercial application within the next 10-15 years, supporting global energy transition and carbon neutrality goals [6] Group 7: Innovative Drugs - The National Healthcare Security Administration has added 114 new drugs to the national medical insurance directory for 2025, including 50 innovative drugs [7] - The introduction of a commercial health insurance innovative drug directory is expected to improve payment pathways for high-value innovative drugs [7] - The innovative drug sector remains a key focus in the pharmaceutical industry, with potential for continued growth and investment opportunities [7] Group 8: Macro and Industry News - The CSRC has released a draft regulation for listed companies, marking the introduction of dedicated regulatory legislation aimed at enhancing investor protection and company quality [8] - The Ministry of Commerce is promoting new growth points in service consumption, including travel and sports events, to stimulate domestic demand [8] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau is adjusting risk factors for insurance companies' stock investments to cultivate patient capital [10]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming adjustment to China's medical insurance catalog, effective January 1, 2026, will be the largest expansion of innovative drugs in history, adding 114 new drugs, including 50 class 1 innovative drugs, reflecting a significant commitment to support innovation in the pharmaceutical sector [2][11]. Summary by Sections Medical Insurance Directory Adjustment - The total number of drugs in the medical insurance directory will increase to 3,253, with a notable enhancement in coverage for key areas such as oncology, chronic diseases, mental health, rare diseases, and pediatric medications [2]. - The proportion of innovative drugs in the directory is rising, with 50 out of 114 new additions being class 1 innovative drugs, accounting for nearly 44% [2][11]. Innovative Drug Market Dynamics - The inclusion of innovative drugs in the medical insurance directory is a critical factor for market expansion, as these drugs typically experience rapid sales growth within a year of being added [5]. - Companies like Heng Rui Medicine and Innovent Biologics have successfully included multiple innovative products in the new directory, indicating a trend towards greater access to innovative treatments [6][7]. Clinical Demand and Treatment Options - The new directory focuses on drugs with significant clinical value and urgent patient needs, particularly in oncology, where new treatments for blood cancers and breast cancer have been added [12][14]. - The inclusion of targeted therapies for severe asthma and diabetes reflects a commitment to addressing pressing health issues in the population [10][8]. Pricing and Insurance Collaboration - A new commercial insurance directory for innovative drugs has been established, which includes 19 innovative drugs from 18 companies, aiming to create a balanced payment mechanism between basic medical insurance and commercial insurance [19][23]. - The commercial insurance directory is expected to alleviate the financial burden on patients, particularly for high-cost treatments like CAR-T therapy [21][22]. Policy Coordination and Future Outlook - The development of innovative drugs requires coordinated policies across drug approval, medical insurance, and clinical application, which have seen significant reforms in recent years [25][26]. - The future of innovative drug development in China hinges on the collaboration between industry policies and capital markets, with expectations for more original innovations and a focus on global competitiveness [27][28]. Conclusion - The adjustment of the medical insurance directory marks a transformative step for innovative drugs in China, shifting from being luxury items to accessible treatment options for a broader population, ultimately enhancing patient outcomes and supporting the goal of universal health coverage [29].

一年一度的国家医保药品目录调整，始终牵动着万千百姓的心。 12月7日，在2025创新药高质量发展大会上，新版国家医保药品目录及首版商保创新药目录正式发布，114种药品成功纳入医保、19种新药进 商保创新药目录，对参保人"药篮子"全面升级。 人力资源社会保障部工伤保险司司长郑玄波介绍，此次调整后，新版国家医保目录内药品总数增至3253种，其中西药1857种、中成药1396 种。 近年来，医保目录持续扩容，但部分救急、救命的创新药在刚上市时价格高昂，基本医保目录难以覆盖，不少患者依然难以负担。 今年，对这些患者来说，也许希望能够被重新定义。 聚焦创新程度高、临床价值大、患者获益显著且超出基本医保保障范围的创新药，商保创新药目录纳入了CAR-T、TCE疗法、双特异性抗体 等靶点肿瘤药物，也有短肠综合征、戈谢病等罕见病药物，阿尔茨海默症治疗药物等，共计19种新药。 两份药品清单，让新药、好药更加触手可及。 聚焦临床急需、医保可负担——进医保的114种药品中，有36个肿瘤用药、12个糖尿病等慢性病用药、13个抗感染类药品、10个罕见病用药 等，29种临床用不上、或有更好替代的药品被调出目录。 一些能够弥补基本医保保障空 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance, Maternity Insurance, and Work Injury Insurance Drug Catalog was released, adding 114 new drugs, including 50 innovative drugs, with an overall success rate of 88%, significantly up from 76% in 2024 [1][2] - The first version of the Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Catalog was also published, including 19 drugs, such as CAR-T therapies and treatments for rare diseases, complementing the basic medical insurance [4][5] Group 1: National Basic Medical Insurance Catalog - The 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Catalog is the 8th adjustment since the establishment of the National Medical Insurance Bureau, increasing the total number of drugs to 3,253, with 1,857 Western medicines and 1,396 traditional Chinese medicines [2][3] - The new catalog includes drugs that fill gaps in basic medical insurance coverage for major diseases like triple-negative breast cancer and pancreatic cancer, as well as treatments for chronic diseases such as diabetes and autoimmune diseases [2][3] - The adjustment also removed 29 drugs that are either not clinically available or can be replaced by better alternatives [2] Group 2: Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Catalog - The first version of the Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Catalog will be implemented on January 1, 2025, focusing on innovative and cutting-edge drugs, including CAR-T and TCE therapies [4][6] - The catalog aims to clarify the boundary of basic medical insurance coverage and promote the development of a multi-tiered medical insurance system [4][7] - The National Medical Insurance Bureau emphasizes the importance of supporting innovative drugs while maintaining the basic insurance's focus on essential and reliable treatments [6][7] Group 3: Support for Innovation and Market Dynamics - The National Medical Insurance Bureau has been actively supporting innovative drugs, holding multiple meetings to discuss the integration of innovative drugs into insurance coverage [3][6] - The commercial health insurance market has been growing rapidly, with a premium income of 977.3 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year increase [7] - The establishment of the Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Catalog is expected to provide a stable outlet for innovative drugs, enhancing their accessibility [7][8]

Core Points - The 2025 National Medical Insurance Directory has added 114 new drugs, including 50 innovative drugs, which will significantly enhance patient access to essential medications [1][3][6] - The introduction of the Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Directory marks a pivotal moment for innovative drug accessibility, allowing companies to explore new payment channels beyond traditional insurance [12][13] - The overall number of drugs in the National Medical Insurance Directory has increased to 3,253, with a notable focus on critical areas such as oncology, chronic diseases, and rare diseases [6][11] Group 1: National Medical Insurance Directory - The 2025 National Medical Insurance Directory includes 114 new drugs, with 50 classified as innovative drugs, such as Tislelizumab and domestic ADCs [1][3] - The directory aims to bridge gaps in basic medical insurance coverage for major diseases like triple-negative breast cancer and lung cancer [3][4] - The total number of drugs in the National Medical Insurance Directory has risen to 3,253, enhancing coverage for key disease areas [6] Group 2: Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Directory - The Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Directory includes five CAR-T cell therapies and two Alzheimer's disease drugs, addressing previously limited access due to high costs [1][7] - The directory allows innovative drug companies to seek new payment avenues, enhancing the affordability and accessibility of high-value drugs [12][13] - The introduction of this directory is seen as a significant milestone in improving patient access to innovative therapies [8][9] Group 3: Industry Impact and Future Outlook - The past decade has seen a surge in China's innovative drug development, with the 2025 directory marking a new phase in business development for the industry [11] - The dual-track payment framework of basic insurance and commercial insurance is expected to stimulate the market for innovative drugs [13] - Companies are encouraged to collaborate with insurance providers to enhance patient coverage and awareness of health insurance options [12][13]

Core Insights - The 2025 National Medical Insurance Directory has added 114 new drugs, including 50 innovative drugs, which will significantly enhance patient access to essential medications [1][3][6] - The introduction of the Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Directory marks a pivotal moment for the pharmaceutical industry, allowing for new payment channels beyond traditional insurance [11][12] Summary by Sections National Medical Insurance Directory - The 2025 National Medical Insurance Directory includes 114 new drugs, with 50 classified as innovative drugs, such as Tislelizumab and domestic ADCs [1][3] - The total number of drugs in the National Medical Insurance Directory has increased to 3,253, with significant improvements in coverage for critical areas like oncology and rare diseases [6] Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Directory - The Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Directory features five CAR-T cell therapies and two imported Alzheimer's drugs, addressing previously limited access due to high costs [1][7] - The directory aims to enhance the accessibility of high-value innovative drugs, with a focus on improving patient affordability [9][10] Industry Impact - The inclusion of innovative drugs in the National Medical Insurance Directory is expected to accelerate the transition from laboratory to patient access, providing crucial support for sustainable investment in pharmaceutical R&D [2][4] - The launch of the Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Directory allows pharmaceutical companies to explore new payment avenues, fostering a dual-track pricing system that recognizes the value of innovative therapies [12] Company Responses - Companies like WuXi AppTec and CanSino Biologics have expressed optimism about the new directories, highlighting the government's support for domestic innovation and the potential for improved patient outcomes [4][5][11] - The introduction of the directories has prompted companies to collaborate closely with insurance providers to ensure effective implementation and patient access [12]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market performance in the current year has been positive, with most stocks experiencing an increase, but there is significant differentiation based on fundamentals [4] Group 1: Market Performance - The cyclical industries are facing weak overall demand, while some sectors benefit from positive changes on the supply side, showing signs of profit recovery [4] - The real estate sector continues to see both volume and price declines, with over half of the companies reporting losses in the first three quarters [4] - The liquor industry is also experiencing structural demand decline, with many companies reporting rare negative profit growth in a single quarter [4] - Banks are showing weak cyclical characteristics, but have achieved positive returns this year due to a favorable interest margin [4] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The differentiation in the stock market has led to varied performance among fund managers, with the current portfolio showing slower growth [5] - The focus has been on learning about sectors like AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which occupy a significant portion of research time [5] - The portfolio has not changed much, indicating a low turnover rate, suggesting that new knowledge has not been effectively integrated into investment decisions [5] Group 3: Investment Philosophy - Understanding the valuation of a stock is complex and can be both quantitative and qualitative [6] - The concept of "weight" in stocks is emphasized, where long-term dividend discounting plays a crucial role in valuation [6] - The distinction between "derivative" and "integral" investment philosophies is highlighted, with each having its own merits and challenges [6] Group 4: Risk Assessment - The value of an investment can be compared to a chicken's ability to lay eggs, where various uncertainties exist regarding its future productivity [7] - The importance of negative imagination in investment decisions is stressed, as it can help mitigate potential losses [7] Group 5: Long-term Perspective - The overall returns for investors in the secondary market are derived from total dividends minus transaction costs, emphasizing the competitive nature of investment returns [8] - The company has achieved a mixed performance over the past seven years compared to the CSI 300 Total Return Index, with a goal of navigating through market cycles successfully [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming Phase III clinical results for the Staphylococcus aureus vaccine by Olin Biotech, expected to be announced in the first half of 2026, emphasizing its potential to fill a market gap and achieve overseas business development [5][33]. - The report notes the increasing global concern over antibiotic resistance, particularly regarding Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), which poses a significant threat to public health, with a clinical detection rate in China reaching 28.7% in the first half of 2025 [5][18]. - The report identifies a favorable competitive landscape for bacterial vaccines, driven by the urgent need to address antibiotic resistance, with Olin Biotech positioned as a leader in this space [16][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The report reviews the performance of the pharmaceutical sector from December 1 to December 5, 2025, noting a decline of 0.7% in the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.0 percentage points [4][36]. - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has increased by 16.9% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.4 percentage points [4][36]. 2. Staphylococcus aureus Vaccine - The report discusses the high clinical detection rate of MRSA in China, which has significant implications for public health, with approximately 130,000 deaths globally attributed to MRSA in 2021 [5][18]. - Olin Biotech's vaccine is noted for its advanced development stage, with the Phase III trial involving 6,000 participants expected to complete data analysis in the first half of 2026 [5][33]. - The report emphasizes the high failure rate of bacterial vaccine development, citing past failures of major pharmaceutical companies, which underscores the challenges in this field [5][30]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs, particularly those with strong commercial capabilities and rich pipelines, as well as exploring opportunities in medical devices and undervalued sectors that may see a rebound in a bullish market [5][36]. - A recommended investment portfolio includes companies such as Kangfang Biotech, Innovent Biologics, WuXi AppTec, and Olin Biotech, reflecting a strategic focus on high-potential firms within the sector [5][36].

Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Some banks, including Hangzhou Bank, have raised deposit rates despite major state-owned banks lowering rates and withdrawing certain large-denomination time deposits [1] - Hangzhou Bank's new 3-year fixed deposit rate for new funds starting from 200,000 yuan is 1.9%, while for non-new funds it is 1.8% [1] - Other banks like Ningbo Bank and Shengjing Bank have also increased rates on certain deposit products, indicating a trend to attract deposits [1] Group 2: Insurance Fund Risk Factor Adjustment - The regulatory body has lowered risk factors for insurance companies, particularly for investments in the CSI 300 index and other specified stocks, which is expected to bring in significant incremental funds [4] - The adjustment is seen as beneficial for the A-share market, potentially supporting a long-term bullish trend [4] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Reserves - The central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month, with November reserves reported at 7.412 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces [5] Group 4: Public Fund Growth - The total net asset value of public funds in China reached a record high of 36.96 trillion yuan by the end of October, marking an increase of over 200 billion yuan from the end of September [6] - The popularity of equity funds has surged, with several funds exceeding 3 billion yuan in issuance since November [7] Group 5: Bond Fund Redemption Trends - A significant number of bond funds have faced large redemptions, with over 60 funds announcing redemptions since the fourth quarter began [8] Group 6: Consumer Fund Performance - Consumer-themed funds have seen declines, with some funds dropping over 10% this year, particularly in sectors like liquor and home appliances [9] Group 7: Public Fund Participation in Private Placements - Public funds have participated in private placements with a total allocation of 17.3 billion yuan in 2025, a 140% increase compared to the previous year [10] - The focus of these investments has been on sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and innovative pharmaceuticals [11]