近日，央行公布的数据显示，截至2025年12月末，我国黄金储备为7415万盎司。 我国央行最新披露的数据显示，截至2025年12月末，我国黄金储备为7415万盎司，较上月末的7412万盎 司增加3万盎司。 王青对此表示，伴随美联储持续降息，全球地缘政治风险居高不下，近期国际金价延续快速上涨势头， 2025年12月央行增持黄金规模继续处于2024年11月恢复增持以来的最低水平。 《华夏时报》记者注意到，这也是我国官方黄金储备连续第14个月增加，不过，从环比增加3万盎司的 规模来看，我国官方黄金储备单月环比增加规模已连续第10个月处于低位。对此，东方金诚首席宏观分 析师王青对《华夏时报》记者表示，这符合市场预期。 "近期央行继续增持黄金，主要原因是美国新政府上台后，全球政治、经济形势出现新变化，国际金价 有可能在相当长一段时间内易涨难跌。"王青表示，这意味着从控制成本角度出发暂停增持黄金的必要 性下降，而从优化国际储备结构角度增持黄金的必要性上升。 值得一提的是，世界黄金协会（WGC）最新公布的数据显示，截至2025年11月底（少部分国家数据截 至2025年10月底），美国海外全球官方黄金储备总量已超过9亿金衡盎 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while betting on a rapid decline of the US dollar may be premature, its long-term weakening provides opportunities for gold, the Chinese yuan, and the euro [1][3] - The proportion of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to its lowest level in 40 years, while gold prices have reached multi-decade highs, indicating a loss of confidence in dollar assets [3] - The international monetary system may gradually shift towards a multipolar structure, potentially leading to a "tripod" balance among the US dollar, euro, and yuan [3] Group 2 - The euro faces limitations due to a lack of unified fiscal policy and internal political differences, while the yuan is seen as more stable [3] - The Chinese industrial chain has high added value and irreplaceability, suggesting that the internationalization of the yuan could accelerate under controlled conditions [3] - A key shortcoming in promoting yuan internationalization is its "investment and financing function," which needs to be deepened despite its increasing share in trade settlements [3] - It is suggested to explore the establishment of offshore yuan trading centers domestically to attract qualified foreign investors for yuan investment and financing, thereby broadening the path for yuan internationalization [3]

Core Viewpoint - The post-World War II dollar-dominated international monetary system is facing multiple challenges, with the erosion of dollar credit, but its hegemonic status is unlikely to be shaken in the short term. Meanwhile, the internationalization of the renminbi is progressing steadily, with its settlement share expected to exceed 10%, positioning it among the top three global payment currencies, thereby creating favorable conditions for economic development [1][4]. Group 1: Dollar's Challenges - The recent decline in the dollar index is attributed to multiple factors, including a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the impact of renminbi internationalization on some dollar payment shares [4][5]. - The U.S. government's high debt levels are a key factor undermining dollar credit, with the political cycle exacerbating fiscal deficit pressures due to election candidates promising tax cuts and increased welfare [4][5]. Group 2: Future of the Dollar - Despite challenges, the dollar is expected to remain the leading international reserve and payment currency for many years, although its share in the global monetary system may gradually decline [5]. - The introduction of stablecoins is seen as a way for the dollar to maintain its dominance in international trade settlements, a trend that may continue in ten-year cycles [5]. Group 3: Renminbi's Role - China is actively promoting the internationalization of the renminbi to reduce excessive reliance on dollar settlements in international trade [5]. - The renminbi's settlement share in global trade is projected to exceed 10%, placing it among the top three payment currencies, particularly in trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative and in transactions of major commodities like oil [5].

"中国资产不可投资论"退潮。 1月10日，在"2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会"上，西班牙对外银行（BBVA）首席经济学家夏乐指出，在美元大循环边际弱化、数字货币重塑国际支付 体系的背景下，人民币国际化正重新站上顺风口。 同时，产业链重构与中国企业"走出去"正在创造更多跨境人民币使用场景；人民币汇率中期偏强、双边本币互换和跨境支付合作经验不断积累；CIPS体系、 海外清算行及多边"货币桥"项目的实践，也持续夯实人民币国际化的基础。 "更值得关注的是，海外投资者对中国资产的认知正在发生转变，'中国资产不可投资论'明显退潮，部分机构已将中国市场视为对冲美国科技资产泡沫的重 要选择。"夏乐表示。 尽管前景向好，夏乐强调，必须清醒认识到美元霸权不会轻易让位。人民币国际化的目标不应是取代美元，而是获得足够的体系性影响力。展望未来，他认 为，人民币国际化仍面临一系列现实政策抉择，包括如何在数字货币和支付"出海"路径上进行更优组合，以及如何在复杂地缘政治环境下稳步推进制度型开 放。 在夏乐看来，人民币国际化"风再起"的关键，首先来自外部环境的变化。其一，美国"MAGA"政策及高关税取向正在侵蚀美元的主导地位。2025年春 ...

Core Viewpoint - The core position is that the dominance of the US dollar in the global economy is entering a decline phase due to internal economic structures and policy choices in the US, rather than external challenges [1]. Group 1: Global Economic Changes - The global economic landscape is undergoing profound changes, leading to structural pressures on the dollar's core position in international trade and finance [1]. - The long-term imbalance in modern global trade has been sustained since the dollar decoupled from gold in 1971, allowing some countries to maintain trade surpluses while the US continues to act as a global liquidity provider [3]. Group 2: Risks to the US Dollar - The main risks to the dollar's global circulation stem from changes in the US domestic economic structure, including a declining manufacturing sector and widening income distribution gaps, making it difficult for the US to maintain balanced economic growth through globalization [3]. - The US faces a policy dilemma: continuing to push dollars abroad to sustain global demand may lead to structural issues and social conflicts domestically, while reducing dollar outflow to stabilize the domestic economy could decrease global trade demand [3]. Group 3: Implications for China - For China's economic development, three key insights are highlighted: 1. The internationalization of the renminbi should focus on maintaining trade stability rather than attempting to replace the dollar, as excessive pursuit of becoming a reserve currency may increase outflow pressures and impact domestic industrial structure [4]. 2. In response to the trend of reduced global demand from the US, China should accelerate domestic demand construction through consumption upgrades and investment to buffer export pressures [4]. 3. Short-term attention should be paid to the impact of US domestic policies on external demand, including adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, which will directly affect China's exports and external demand trends [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The decline of the dollar's global circulation is expected to be a long-term and gradual process, potentially lasting 20 to 30 years [5]. - For China, the strategic focus should be on stabilizing external demand, accelerating domestic demand development, and promoting the steady internationalization of the renminbi, rather than pursuing a short-term goal of replacing the dollar [5].

Core Viewpoint - China is adjusting its foreign exchange asset allocation strategy in response to significant changes in the global financial landscape, leading to a decline in the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds, which were once considered a safe investment [1][3]. Group 1: Shift in Asset Allocation - China is gradually reallocating its assets towards gold, RMB-denominated assets, and diversified economies along the Belt and Road Initiative, focusing on asset diversification and risk mitigation [3][5]. - The shift away from U.S. Treasury bonds is influenced by the 2022 freezing of Russian central bank assets, raising concerns about the safety of dollar-denominated assets amid potential sanctions [5][7]. - The increasing U.S. fiscal deficit and downgrading of U.S. Treasury credit ratings by international agencies have made investors wary of U.S. debt, reflecting a growing lack of confidence in the U.S. financial system [7][13]. Group 2: Internationalization of the RMB - In 2024, Saudi Arabia and China signed multiple oil trade contracts partially settled in RMB, enhancing the internationalization of the currency and providing China with more confidence to reduce its U.S. Treasury holdings [9][14]. - The number of countries participating in the RMB cross-border payment system is increasing, with RMB becoming the fifth largest global payment currency, indicating its growing international influence [14]. Group 3: Global De-dollarization Trend - The trend of de-dollarization is not unique to China, as emerging economies like India and Turkey are also accelerating their efforts to reduce reliance on the dollar by increasing gold holdings and expanding local currency settlements [15]. - Major economies, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Japan, are reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings, indicating a global shift in capital flows and a gradual move towards a multi-currency system [13][15]. - The global financial market is witnessing a mainstream trend of de-dollarization, with countries adjusting their strategies to navigate the changing financial landscape [17].

自2026年1月1日起，数字人民币钱包余额开始按照活期存款 计付利息。这一变化，于微观而言是账户重构，于宏观而言是 货币突围。 作者：欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 你的数字人民币（e-CNY）钱包，终于有了时间的味道。 自2026年1月1日起，数字人民币钱包余额开始按照活期存款计付利息。这一变化，于微观而言是 账户重构，于宏观而言是货币突围。 如果仍执着于"央行直接负债+100%准备金+不计息"，数字人民币则像一项支付工具试验。而在 数字经济时代，当数字人民币走向"存款化、计量框架升级、激励机制更一致"，它就更像一种能 够与经济增长、金融中介机制相适配的货币形态，某种程度上也被赋予了另一层深意——探索跨境 支付的中国方案。 告别零息 2025年12月29日，中国人民银行副行长陆磊在《金融时报》刊文《守正创新稳步发展数字人民 币》。文章披露，新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生态体系将于2026年1月1 日正式启动实施。 文章中更关键的一句话是，这一制度安排在"双层架构"基础上，明确了客户在商业银行钱包中的 数字人民币是以账户为基础的商业银行负债，标志着数字人民币由现金型1.0版进入存款货币型数 字人民 ...

《南华早报》网站1月10日刊发题为《中国的全球投资模式正在发生怎样的变化——这对人民币意味着什么？》的分析文 章，关注中国从"世界工厂"到"对外投资大国"的转变。 《南华早报》网站文章截图 文章指出，自中国改革开放以来，外商直接投资（FDI）一直是中国经济的重要支柱，并助力中国崛起为"世界工厂"。过去 二十年间，中国对外直接投资（ODI）迅速扩张，如今已成为全球三大对外投资国之一。 文章探讨了推动中国对外投资的驱动因素、其海外投资模式的变化以及对人民币国际化的影响。 推动中国对外直接投资（ODI）增长的原因 文章指出，中国海外投资近年来稳步攀升，国际信用评级机构穆迪2025年6月发布的报告指出，随着中国企业积极寻求收入 来源多元化，对外直接投资增长这一趋势未来几年可能持续。同时，在全球贸易不确定性增加背景下，中国对外直接投资可 能更倾向于瞄准新兴市场。 比如，根据中国政府对外直接投资统计公报，2024年中国对东盟直接投资同比增长36.8%，主要集中在制造业领域。这有助 于中国企业开拓该地区不断增长的国内市场。 《南华早报》网站文章截图 中国投资模式发生了变化 文章表示，在共建"一带一路"倡议推出初期，中国对外 ...

《南华早报》网站1月10日刊发题为《中国的全球投资模式正在发生怎样的变化——这对人民币意味着什么？》的分析文 章，关注中国从"世界工厂"到"对外投资大国"的转变。 《南华早报》网站文章截图 文章指出，自中国改革开放以来，外商直接投资（FDI）一直是中国经济的重要支柱，并助力中国崛起为"世界工厂"。过去 二十年间，中国对外直接投资（ODI）迅速扩张，如今已成为全球三大对外投资国之一。 文章探讨了推动中国对外投资的驱动因素、其海外投资模式的变化以及对人民币国际化的影响。 推动中国对外直接投资（ODI）增长的原因 文章指出，中国海外投资近年来稳步攀升，国际信用评级机构穆迪2025年6月发布的报告指出，随着中国企业积极寻求收入 来源多元化，对外直接投资增长这一趋势未来几年可能持续。同时，在全球贸易不确定性增加背景下，中国对外直接投资可 能更倾向于瞄准新兴市场。 比如，根据中国政府对外直接投资统计公报，2024年中国对东盟直接投资同比增长36.8%，主要集中在制造业领域。这有助 于中国企业开拓该地区不断增长的国内市场。 《南华早报》网站文章截图 中国投资模式发生了变化 文章表示，在共建"一带一路"倡议推出初期，中国对外 ...

Group 1 - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been a crucial pillar of China's economy since the reform and opening-up, contributing to its rise as the "world's factory" [1] - China has rapidly expanded its Outbound Direct Investment (ODI) over the past two decades, becoming one of the top three outbound investment countries globally [1] Group 2 - The growth of China's ODI is driven by companies seeking diversified revenue sources, with a trend towards targeting emerging markets amid global trade uncertainties [2] - In 2024, China's direct investment in ASEAN is expected to increase by 36.8%, primarily in the manufacturing sector, aiding companies in tapping into the region's growing domestic market [2] Group 3 - China's investment model has shifted from focusing on single infrastructure projects to high-value sectors like green energy and telecommunications, adopting a "chain transfer" model for overseas investments [3] - Chinese companies are increasingly emphasizing technology transfer and management experience, with significant training initiatives for local professionals in host countries [3] Group 4 - In developed markets, particularly Europe, greenfield investments by China are expected to dominate its direct investments, especially in the electric vehicle sector, indicating a deepening localization of Chinese enterprises [4] Group 5 - A growing number of Chinese companies are using the Renminbi for overseas investments, with 27.1% of surveyed companies reporting that over 50% of their ODI is in Renminbi, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous year [5] - Nearly 67% of surveyed companies plan to increase the proportion of Renminbi in their overseas investment projects, marking a recent high [5] Group 6 - This trend is accelerating the internationalization of Chinese financial institutions, necessitating product upgrades and more complex global risk pricing and compliance systems [6] - Recommendations for furthering the internationalization of Chinese financial institutions include enhancing innovation and strengthening cross-border regulatory coordination [6]