Core Viewpoint - The inflation report is generally positive, with core inflation rising by 0.2% month-over-month, aligning with expectations, while annual data is slightly above expectations [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - Core inflation's monthly increase of 0.2% meets expectations, indicating stability in inflation trends [1] - Annual inflation data is slightly higher than anticipated, suggesting some inflationary pressures may be emerging [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Implications - The inflation data provides the Federal Reserve with breathing room, allowing them to maintain interest rates steady in July [1] - The Fed will need to consider data from July and August before making a decision in September [1]

Group 1 - Overall inflation met expectations with a seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month increase of 0.3%, marking the largest single-month rise since January. This led to an unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate of 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May, driven by rising food and energy prices [1] - Core inflation was below expectations, with a seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month increase of 0.2%, remaining below the median forecast for the fifth consecutive month. The year-on-year core CPI rose by 2.9%, slightly up from 2.8% in the previous three months, meeting expectations [1] - Key components of core inflation were suppressed due to declines in new and used car prices, as well as decreases in airfare and accommodation costs. Housing prices showed relative moderation, with a monthly increase of 0.2%. The impact of tariff increases was evident in several categories, with furniture prices rising by 1%, the largest increase since January 2022; video and audio product prices up by 1.1%, the largest since February last year; and toy prices increasing by 1.8%, the largest since April 2021 [1] - Rate cut pricing remained unchanged, as higher tariff rates are expected to take effect from August. Economists indicated that the June inflation report is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates earlier. Futures markets still suggest a significant possibility of the Fed restarting rate cuts in September [1] Group 2 - Following the report's release, the U.S. two-year Treasury yield retraced slight gains, gold experienced volatility, and the three major U.S. stock indices opened mixed [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists report that tariffs may have increased prices for goods with supply chains extending overseas, such as home goods, entertainment, and communication products [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Inflation Impact - Last month, airfare prices may have rebounded, but Goldman Sachs predicts that due to expected declines in used car prices and stable new car prices, the overall core inflation rate for June may be approximately 0.23% month-on-month [1] - The team anticipates that the monthly inflation rate for the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will range between 0.3% and 0.4% in the coming months due to the potential severe impacts of tariffs [1]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The report discusses the potential acceleration of the Section 232 investigation by the Trump administration, particularly focusing on tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals, with a higher likelihood of copper tariffs being implemented [1] - Core inflation is showing signs of recovery, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) returning to positive year-on-year growth, driven by rising gold prices and policies promoting trade-in programs [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has unexpectedly declined, indicating weakening prices in domestic energy, raw materials, and certain export sectors, necessitating policy measures to stimulate recovery [2] Group 2: Market Data - The A-share market indices showed slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3493.05, down 0.13%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10581.8, down 0.06% [3] - In the commodity market, gold prices fell by 1.21% to 766.82, while copper prices decreased by 1.53% to 78400 [3] - The foreign exchange market saw the USD/CNY exchange rate at 7.1541, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01% [3] Group 3: Company Research - The report highlights that Q Technology (1478.HK) has upgraded its profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 20%, 31%, and 40% respectively, due to higher-than-expected shipments of IoT modules [4] - Changchun High-tech (000661.SZ) received approval for its injection drug, marking a significant step in its innovation transformation, although profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards due to increased R&D and marketing expenses [5]

Group 1: CPI and Core CPI Insights - In June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, better than the market expectation of 0% and the previous value of -0.1%[2] - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.6% in the previous month, indicating continued improvement in core inflation[2][4] - Food and energy price declines have narrowed, contributing to the positive CPI performance[3][4] Group 2: PPI and Industry Analysis - The PPI fell by 3.6% year-on-year, worse than the market expectation of -3.2% and the previous value of -3.3%[2][9] - PPI has remained at -0.4% month-on-month for four consecutive months, reflecting weakened prices in domestic energy and raw materials[2][9] - The construction industry faced price declines due to high temperatures and abundant supply, with black metal and non-metallic mineral prices dropping by 1.8% and 1.4% respectively[10] Group 3: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is deemed necessary to boost PPI and stabilize industry prices, as current low PPI levels are attributed to oversupply and external uncertainties[11][12] - Recent actions in industries like photovoltaic and cement indicate a shift towards price recovery, with some sectors showing signs of improvement[11][12] - Continued implementation of "anti-involution" policies is expected to support consumer price recovery, particularly in housing rentals and service demand[13]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent shift in tone indicates a more flexible approach to monetary policy, with a focus on core inflation and employment data rather than solely on labor market weakness [1][3] - The market has recalibrated expectations for interest rate cuts, with futures pricing in two cuts this year, while the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased by nearly 30 basis points from its peak [3][4] - Financial stocks face a dual challenge: narrowing net interest margins but potentially benefiting from improved credit conditions that could lower default rates [3][4] Group 2 - Growth companies can take advantage of the current interest rate environment to secure long-term financing and reduce capital costs [4] - Manufacturing export firms need to be cautious of fluctuating currency rates due to ongoing tariff negotiations, which could offset the benefits of lower financing costs from potential rate cuts [4] - Companies with strong cash flows and high sensitivity to interest rates are likely to be the primary beneficiaries of a potential rate cut, as they can leverage consumer resilience and manage inventory effectively [4]

Economic Outlook - The Bank of Thailand projects a GDP growth rate of 2.3% for 2025 and 1.7% for 2026 [1] - Core inflation is expected to be 1% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026 [1]

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