金十数据7月29日讯，新加坡金管局本周可能会在今年首次维持货币政策不变，采取观望态度，因为政 策制定者在衡量即将到来的美国关税，这可能会拖累经济增长。机构调查的19位经济学家中，有14位预 测新加坡金管局周三将保持现有政策设定。包括高盛和美国银行在内的五家公司预计宽松周期将继续。 预期维持现状的预测者指出，新加坡的经济稳定是原因之一。本月的初步增长估计显示，该国躲过了技 术性衰退，制造业、服务出口和建筑业引领了高于预期的增长。马银证券的经济学家Chua Hak Bin认 为，考虑到经济前景的韧性以及温和但稳定的核心通胀，新加坡金管局预计将在今年剩余时间内保持现 有政策设置不变。 调查：新加坡金管局本周料按兵不动 ...

Group 1 - The overall core inflation is largely in line with the target set by the European Central Bank [1] - Most long-term inflation expectations are around 2% [1] - Labor costs are continuing to trend towards moderation [1] Group 2 - Wage growth is expected to further slow down [1] - The economic outlook faces downside risks [1]

Core Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that overall core inflation is in line with targets, indicating a stable inflation environment [1] - Labor costs are continuing to ease, suggesting potential for improved economic conditions and consumer spending [1] Economic Indicators - Core inflation metrics are meeting the ECB's objectives, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] - The easing of labor costs could lead to a more favorable economic outlook, potentially impacting wage growth and consumer confidence [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that overall core inflation is in line with targets [1] - Labor costs continue to ease, indicating a potential slowdown in wage growth [1] - Wage growth is expected to further decelerate, which may impact consumer spending and economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of ING, Carsten Brzeski, maintains the expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will lower interest rates in September after a pause in today's meeting [1] Group 1 - Core inflation and service sector inflation remain above 2%, providing the ECB with little reason to move away from its current "comfort zone" [1] - If two more weak inflation data points emerge over the summer, along with hard data consistently underperforming soft data, a final rate cut may be seen in the September meeting [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is prepared to adjust all tools as necessary [1] - The assessment of information and inflation is largely consistent [1] - Future monetary policy stance will be determined by data [1] Group 2 - The economy has shown overall resilience to date [2] - Asset purchase programs and emergency pandemic bond purchases are decreasing at a measured and predictable pace [2] - Decisions will be based on core inflation and transmission strength [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, emphasizes the need for data to support the forecast that core inflation will slow to 2.5% [1] Group 1 - The RBA is closely monitoring economic indicators to validate its inflation predictions [1] - Lowe's comments suggest a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments based on incoming data [1] - The central bank's inflation target remains a critical focus for future economic strategies [1]

Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, indicated that core inflation in the second quarter may not have slowed as initially expected [1] - June data suggests that the labor market is moving further towards a balanced state [1]

日本央行副行长内田真一：将关注这些上行和下行压力对价格的影响，以及其对核心通胀的影响。 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant impact of tariffs on the economy, with a focus on the retail sector and credit market dynamics, suggesting a cautious approach to investments in these areas. Core Insights - Tariff revenues exceeded 26 billion USD in June, annualized at about 1% of GDP, marking a significant increase compared to three months prior, indicating that the effects of tariffs are becoming more pronounced [1][2] - The retail sector is particularly vulnerable due to preemptive inventory purchases made in anticipation of high tariffs, which have now been sold out, leading to higher costs for new orders expected in the third quarter of 2025 [3][4] - Core inflation data is rising, reflecting increased cost pressures across industries affected by tariffs, with the retail sector expected to feel the impact more acutely in the third quarter of 2025 [3][4] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The rapid increase in tariff rates, now reaching historical highs of 9%, with potential future increases to 15-20%, is a key factor in the delayed impact of tariffs on the market [2] - Companies had stocked up on inventory before tariffs took effect, but by the third quarter, these inventories will be depleted, leading to higher costs for new products [2] Retail Sector - The retail industry is especially affected as it faces higher costs for new goods after selling off pre-purchased inventory, with core inflation pressures compounding the situation [3] Credit Market - The credit market is advised to focus on quality, particularly in August and September, as the retail sector's challenges may lead to increased scrutiny on credit quality due to rising costs and inflation [4]