甲醇日报 | 2025-06-25 伊朗冲突放缓，甲醇价格大幅回落 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润720元/吨（-18）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2015元/吨（-18），内蒙北线基差236元/吨（+108），内蒙南线2060元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2305元/吨（-73）， 鲁南基差126元/吨（+53）；河南2240元/吨（-25），河南基差61元/吨（+100）；河北2220元/吨（+0），河北基差101 元/吨（+125）。隆众内地工厂库存367350吨（-11770），西北工厂库存237000吨（-100）；隆众内地工厂待发订单274780 吨（-27310），西北工厂待发订单149500吨（-17500）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2640元/吨（-100），太仓基差261元/吨（+25），CFR中国302美元/吨（-4），华东进口价差89元 /吨（+27），常州甲醇2490元/吨；广东甲醇2465元/吨（-135），广东基差86元/吨（-10）。隆众港口总库存586400吨 （-65800），江苏港口库存293500吨（- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term port methanol inventory may accumulate. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2400 in the short term. The olefin industry's operation may continue to decline due to planned maintenance and potential load - reduction expectations. With the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, imports are expected to return, leading to a significant drop in methanol prices [3][4] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2379 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 28 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 896,735 lots, down 96,724 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 85,080 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,867, unchanged [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2020 yuan/ton, up 17.5 yuan. The East - Northwest price spread is 600 yuan/ton, down 117.5 yuan. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 241 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. CFR China Main Port is 306 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 346 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars. FOB Rotterdam is 285 euros/ton, up 12 euros. The China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread is - 40 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars [3] Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas price is 3.68 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.22 dollars [3] Industry Situation - East China port inventory is 43.7 tons, down 3.1 tons; South China port inventory is 14.94 tons, down 3.48 tons. Methanol import profit is 15 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 367,400 tons, down 11,700 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 88.65%, up 0.67% [3] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 50.39%, down 0.5%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 8.66%, up 0.96%; the acetic acid operating rate is 88.33%, down 7.32%; the MTBE operating rate is 63.71%, up 4.01%; the olefin operating rate is 89.22%, up 0.66%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 863 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 22.16%, up 0.83%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.01%, up 0.49%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 26.88%, up 1.72%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 26.88%, up 1.7% [3] Industry News - As of June 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.74 tons, down 1.18 tons (3.10% MoM); the pending orders of sample enterprises were 27.38 tons, down 2.83 tons (9.37% MoM). As of June 18, the total port inventory of Chinese methanol was 58.64 tons, down 6.58 tons. The overall production increased slightly. The inventory in the Northwest decreased, while some enterprises' inventory increased slightly. As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 88.97%, down 0.54% MoM [3] View Summary - Due to the short - term low arrival at ports, the port inventory decreased. The short - term port methanol inventory may accumulate. Attention should be paid to the change in the tradable volume in the coastal market and international situation changes [3] Tip for Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main driver of the methanol market lies in the fluctuations of crude oil prices at the upstream cost end. After the US struck Iran, the oil price declined, indicating that the market believes the most intense expectations have been fulfilled, and there is limited room for further intensification. The market has started to trade on the expectation of Iran's plant resumption, leading to a high - opening and low - closing trend in the methanol futures market. Future attention should be paid to the progress of Iran's plant resumption. [3] - Currently, the absolute level of port inventory is still low, and the port basis remains strong. There are concerns in the market about the loss - induced maintenance of methanol - to - olefins (MTO) plants that rely on imported methanol at ports. Attention should be paid to whether the MTO plant maintenance at the end of the month will materialize. [3] - In the inland region, the operating rate of coal - based methanol plants remains high, and the inventory accumulation rate of inland factories is still slow, indicating a certain resilience in inland demand. However, the high price difference between ports and inland areas is a factor dragging down the methanol price from reaching a peak. [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads are presented, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). [7][11][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China. [26][31][32] III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures display the total port inventory of methanol, the operating rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of methanol plants in China (including integrated plants). [34][35][37] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures present various regional price differences, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and the differences between other regions. [39][46][49] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, the production profit of acetic acid in Jiangsu, the production profit of MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and the production profit of dimethyl ether in Henan. [45][55]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - Last week, methanol port inventories decreased as expected. In the short term, port methanol inventories may accumulate. Attention should be paid to changes in the tradable volume in the coastal market and international situation changes. - Due to the planned maintenance of Zhongmei Mengda and a slight reduction in the load of East China enterprises, the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry decreased last week. This week, with the ongoing maintenance of Zhongmei Mengda's olefins and the expected load reduction of olefin enterprises in East China, the olefin industry's operation may continue to decline. - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2450 - 2550 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2504 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton. - The main contract's open interest was 993,459 lots, an increase of 108,755 lots; the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders were - 117,489 lots, a decrease of 47,331 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts was 7,867, a decrease of 58. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2002.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton. - The East - Northwest price difference was 717.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 216 yuan/ton. - CFR China Main Port was 306 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia was 346 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. - FOB Rotterdam was 285 euros/ton, an increase of 12 euros/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference was - 40 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.9 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.08 US dollars/million British thermal units. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 43.7 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 14.94 tons, a decrease of 3.48 tons. - The methanol import profit was 89.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.64 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 129.23 tons, an increase of 50.46 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 367,400 tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 88.65%, an increase of 0.67%. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 50.39%, a decrease of 0.5%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.66%, an increase of 0.96%. - The acetic acid operating rate was 88.33%, a decrease of 7.32%; the MTBE operating rate was 63.71%, an increase of 4.01%. - The olefin operating rate was 89.22%, an increase of 0.66%; the methanol - to - olefins disk profit was - 1050 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 22.16%, an increase of 0.83%; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 22.01%, an increase of 0.49%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 26.88%, an increase of 1.72%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 26.88%, an increase of 1.7%. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of June 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.74 tons, a decrease of 1.18 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.10%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 27.38 tons, a decrease of 2.83 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 9.37%. - As of June 18, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 58.64 tons, a decrease of 6.58 tons from the previous data. The inventory in the East China region decreased by 3.10 tons, and the inventory in the South China region decreased by 3.48 tons. - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 88.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. [2] 4. Information to be Followed - Wednesday's inventory data of Longzhong enterprises and ports - International situation changes [2]

审核：陈小国，从业资格号:F03100622，交易咨询号：Z0021111 甲醇供需概况 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货甲醇周报 高基差下，甲醇期货或偏强震荡 20250622 萧勇辉 交易咨询号：Z0019917 从业资格号：F03091536 0769-22110802 周度观点及策略 周度观点 ◆ 库存：据隆众资讯统计，本周，中国甲醇样本生产企业库存预计为34.76万吨，较本期或继续小幅去库；显性外轮卸货量预计环比增量， 加之多个内地区域至港口套利空间开启，部分下游采内地货源为主，进口表需将有所下降，预计港口甲醇库存或累库，关注外轮卸货 速度。 ◆ 供应：据隆众资讯统计，本周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量207.63万吨左右，产能利用率92.14%左右，较本期增加； 甲醇进口样本到港计划预估26.31万吨，其中显性25.31万吨，非显性1万吨；内贸预估2.5-3.0万吨附近。 ◆ 需求：据隆众资讯统计，本周，随着中煤蒙大烯烃检修陆续进行，以及华东地区烯烃企业可能出现的降负荷预期，烯烃行业开工被动 继续降低；二甲醚、氯化物、醋酸开工率提升，甲醛开工率下降。 ◆ ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-06-19 港口再度去库，基差快速走强 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润703元/吨（+5）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1998元/吨（+5），内蒙北线基差81元/吨（-57），内蒙南线2000元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2355元/吨（-25），鲁 南基差38元/吨（-87）；河南2245元/吨（-25），河南基差-72元/吨（-87）；河北2195元/吨（-5），河北基差-62元/吨 （-67）。隆众内地工厂库存367350吨（-11770），西北工厂库存237000吨（-100）；隆众内地工厂待发订单274780吨 （-27310），西北工厂待发订单149500吨（-17500）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2700元/吨（+85），太仓基差183元/吨（+23），CFR中国298美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-3元/ 吨（+29），常州甲醇2515元/吨；广东甲醇2570元/吨（+60），广东基差53元/吨（-2）。隆众港口总库存586400吨（-65800）， 江苏港口库存293500吨（-18500），浙江港口 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年06月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：偏强运行 01 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 综述：地缘冲突带来不确定性，短期多配 ➢ 国内现货：本期港口甲醇市场现货价格继续偏强，其中江苏价格波动区间在2300-2420元/吨，广东价格波动在2280-2320元/吨。港口甲醇市场由 于对市场可流通量的担忧，月内买气好转，推动市场价格上涨，基差走强，但涨至高位后，市场买气走弱，价格窄幅回落，但整体仍维持强势运行为 主。本期内地甲醇市场小幅推涨，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1883-1897元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间在2150-2160元/吨。受宏观 情绪影响，盘面及港口价格上调，产区企业走量不走价积极超卖，叠加烯烃外采需求尚存，价格处于相对低位吸引部分贸易商介入，周内多数产区工 厂出货顺畅。 (隆众资讯） ➢ 基本面：本周 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-06-12 港口累库速率加快 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润603元/吨（+3）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1898元/吨（+3），内蒙北线基差216元/吨（-4），内蒙南线1890元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2220元/吨（+10），鲁 南基差138元/吨（+4）；河南2105元/吨（+0），河南基差23元/吨（-6）；河北2105元/吨（+25），河北基差83元/吨（+19）。 隆众内地工厂库存379120吨（+8630），西北工厂库存237100吨（+2600）；隆众内地工厂待发订单302090吨（+39910）， 西北工厂待发订单167000吨（+17000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2368元/吨（-12），太仓基差86元/吨（-18），CFR中国271美元/吨（+5），华东进口价差-7元/ 吨（-3），常州甲醇2325元/吨；广东甲醇2305元/吨（-5），广东基差23元/吨（-11）。隆众港口总库存652200吨（+71000）， 江苏港口库存312000吨（+30700），浙江港口库存156000吨（ ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-06-10 海外装置检修问题仍存 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润588元/吨（-10）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1883元/吨（-10），内蒙北线基差206元/吨（-23），内蒙南线1880元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2205元/吨（+10）， 鲁南基差128元/吨（-3）；河南2090元/吨（+20），河南基差13元/吨（+7）；河北2060元/吨（+0），河北基差43元/吨 （-13）。隆众内地工厂库存370490吨（+15540），西北工厂库存234500吨（+18500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单262180 吨（+12288），西北工厂待发订单150000吨（+21500）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2338元/吨（+26），太仓基差61元/吨（+13），CFR中国263美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-3元/ 吨（+8），常州甲醇2320元/吨；广东甲醇2300元/吨（+5），广东基差23元/吨（-8）。隆众港口总库存581200吨（+58240）， 江苏港口库存281300吨（+51300），浙江港口库存14 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Short - term methanol has rebound momentum due to the recent rebound in oil prices and coal prices, and the impact of maritime new regulations on methanol unloading. However, the upward momentum of methanol is insufficient. From a valuation perspective, methanol is still not cheap compared to upstream coal, but it is relatively cheap compared to downstream polyolefins, and there is room for valuation repair. From a driving perspective, after the weakening of macro - impacts, methanol returns to its own fundamental pricing. Supply from imports and inland has recovered quickly, while the demand side has limited room for further improvement, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern [1] Summary by Relevant Content Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2338 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.47% from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2279 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.40%; MA09 closed at 2277 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.57% [1] - Methanol spot prices: In太仓, it was 2325 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 0.87%; in Shandong, 2162.50 yuan/ton, up 17.50 yuan/ton or 0.82%; in Guangdong, 2300 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.22%; in Shaanxi, 1937.50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.52%; in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei, there was no change; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1882.50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or - 0.53% [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 13 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Raw Material Prices - Coal spot prices: Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 all remained unchanged at 425 yuan/ton, 470 yuan/ton, and 480 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: In Hohhot and Chongqing, they remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit remained unchanged at 299.70 yuan/ton; natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 600 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit of methanol: Northwest MTO profit was 587.60 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 2.55%; East China MTO profit was - 611.07 yuan/ton, down 108.50 yuan/ton or - 21.59%; acetic acid profit was 473.45 yuan/ton, down 39.25 yuan/ton or - 7.66%; MTBE profit was 303.32 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 19.74%; formaldehyde profit remained unchanged at - 186.40 yuan/ton; another product's profit was 798 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton or - 11.14% [1] Important Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2509 opened at 2265 yuan/ton, closed at 2277 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 590228 lots and an open interest of 819092, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. All contracts had trading on the trading day [1] - Foreign information: Currently, two methanol units with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the recent natural gas supply situation [1]