交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-26甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：产区甲醇工厂无库存压力，但港口高库存对整体行情有压制作用，预计本周国内甲醇震荡整理，且部分地 区不排除走跌可能。内地方面来看，虽然当前产区工厂暂无库存压力，但市场消息称托县甲醇装置近期有重启计划，内 地重回高开工弱需求的供应格局，以及港口进口货源持续倒流内地，业者对后市心态谨慎，后期或震荡偏弱。港口方 面，伊朗多套装置停车兑现和港口库存明显去化，才能构成行情反转的支撑点，在此达成之前，期现货深度磨底。预计 本周港口甲醇市场延续探底，不过目前绝对价格来看，预计下方空间有限；关注伊朗装置检修实际落地节点；中性 2 ...

伊朗装置开始检修，关注持续性 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润583元/吨（+3）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1988元/吨（+3），内蒙北线基差511元/吨（-71），内蒙南线1920元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2180元/吨（+40），鲁 南基差303元/吨（-33）；河南2040元/吨（+20），河南基差163元/吨（-53）；河北2080元/吨（+0），河北基差263元/ 吨（-73）。隆众内地工厂库存358700吨（-10550），西北工厂库存188500吨（-17000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单246320 吨（+920），西北工厂待发订单125400吨（+8900）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2053元/吨（+53），太仓基差-24元/吨（-20），CFR中国233美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-42元/ 吨（-1），常州甲醇2265元/吨；广东甲醇2035元/吨（+40），广东基差-42元/吨（-33）。隆众港口总库存1479340吨 （-64260），江苏港口库存819300吨（-17300），浙江港口库存198500吨（-21 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-11-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 利多因素提振，甲醇企稳反弹 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

每经AI快讯，11月24日，甲醇连续主力合约日内涨3%，现报2076.00元/吨。 ...

| | | 甲醇日评20251124:短期供需压力难解,关注预期变动 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 单位 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/20 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 元/吨 | 2004.00 | 2016.00 | -12.00 | -0.60% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 元/吨 | 2138.00 | 2153.00 | -15.00 | -0.70% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 元/吨 | 2201.00 | 2210.00 | -9.00 | -0.41% | | | | 太仓 元/吨 | 1995.00 | 2002.50 | -7.50 | -0.37% | | | | 山东 元/吨 | 2150.00 | 2155.00 | -5.00 | -0.23% | | 期现价格 | | 元/吨 广东 | 1995.00 | 1995.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 及基差 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The port price of methanol remains weak, with port inventory falling from its high for the first time and flowing back to the inland. The key lies in whether the inland can absorb the impact of the port's backflow. The fundamentals are still weak, and the key is when the winter maintenance in Iran will be implemented [3]. - The inventory of inland factories has slightly decreased. The MTO of Yangmei is under maintenance, and Luxi MTO is operating at a low load. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong [4]. - In the traditional downstream, the acetic acid and formaldehyde industries are operating at low loads, while only the MTBE industry has a relatively high operating rate. The methanol price is also affected by the decline in the coking coal futures price [4]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - The report shows multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) against the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [8][12][23] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures are presented for Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import price differences (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China) [27][28][36] III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [37][38][40] IV. Regional Price Differences - Multiple regional price differences are shown, such as the price differences between Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [42][49][52] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Information about the production profits of traditional downstream industries is provided, including the production profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [53][60][62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The port price of methanol continues to decline, and the port inventory has dropped from its high for the first time, with the port methanol flowing back to the inland. The key lies in whether the inland can withstand the impact of the port's backflow. The overseas market maintains a high - operating rate, and the focus is on when the winter maintenance in Iran will be implemented. The auction in the inland has improved, and the inventory of inland factories has slightly decreased. The MTO units of Yangmei are under maintenance, and Luxi MTO maintains a low - load operation. The commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong needs attention. In the traditional downstream, the operating rate of acetic acid continues to decline, formaldehyde operates at a low load in the off - season, and the operating rate of MTBE is acceptable. There are few coal - based maintenance projects in the inland, and the gas - based units in the southwest are waiting for the maintenance from late November to December [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Inland - The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is 573 yuan/ton (+10). The price of methanol in Inner Mongolia's northern line is 1978 yuan/ton (+10), with a basis of 565 yuan/ton (+27); in Inner Mongolia's southern line, it is 1920 yuan/ton (unchanged). In Shandong Linyi, it is 2140 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 327 yuan/ton (+17). In Henan, it is 2000 yuan/ton (-15), with a basis of 187 yuan/ton (+2). In Hebei, it is 2075 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 322 yuan/ton (+17). The inventory of inland factories is 358,700 tons (-10,550), and the inventory of northwest factories is 188,500 tons (-17,000). The pending orders of inland factories are 246,320 tons (+920), and those of northwest factories are 125,400 tons (+8,900) [2]. 3.1.2 Port - The price of methanol in Taicang is 1997 yuan/ton (-5), with a basis of - 16 yuan/ton (+12), CFR China is 234 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the import price difference in East China is - 46 yuan/ton (-10). In Changzhou, it is 2235 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it is 1990 yuan/ton (-20), with a basis of - 23 yuan/ton (-3). The total port inventory is 1,479,340 tons (-64,260), the inventory in Jiangsu ports is 819,300 tons (-17,300), in Zhejiang ports is 198,500 tons (-21,300), and in Guangdong ports is 277,000 tons (-13,000). The operating rate of downstream MTO is 89.26% (-0.55%) [3]. 3.1.3 Regional Price Differences - The price differences such as Luobei - Northwest - 280, Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc., have different changes, with some decreasing and some increasing [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - The port price continues to decline, and the inventory drops from its high. The key is the winter maintenance in Iran and whether the inland can withstand the back - flow. In the inland, the auction improves, and the factory inventory decreases. In the MTO sector, some units are under maintenance or operating at low loads. The commissioning progress of Lianhong's second - phase MTO needs attention. In the traditional downstream, the operating rates of different products vary [4]. 3.3 Strategy - There are no strategies for unilateral, inter - period, and cross - variety trading [5]. 3.4 Figures in Each Section 3.4.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures show the basis between methanol in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia's northern line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (such as methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][8][24]. 3.4.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, the import price difference of methanol in Taicang, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [7][29][30]. 3.4.3 Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory - Figures present the total port inventory of methanol, the operating rate of MTO/P (including integrated units), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of methanol production in China [7][39][41]. 3.4.4 Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as Luobei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, etc. [7][43][49]. 3.4.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [7][53][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The short - term judgment on methanol is low - level oscillation. The current methanol valuation is at a relatively low level. It is not recommended to continue short - selling from the valuation perspective. The upward driving force is limited, mainly due to the less - than - expected winter gas restriction in Iran and high inventory of MTO enterprises [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Profit Data - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2055 yuan/ton to 2029 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.27%; MA05 decreased from 2163 yuan/ton to 2145 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.83%; MA09 decreased from 2202 yuan/ton to 2200 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.09% [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in most regions decreased, with Shaanxi having the largest decline of 2.06% from 1945 yuan/ton to 1905 yuan/ton [1] - **Profit Situations**: Coal - to - methanol and natural - gas - to - methanol profits remained unchanged. Northwest MTO profit decreased by 11.60%, while East China MTO profit increased by 15.27%. Acetic acid profit increased by 3.07%, and MTBE profit decreased by 16.99% [1] 2. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 weakened, opening at 2049 yuan/ton, closing at 2029 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 1178856 lots and open interest of 1497531, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: In a Middle - Eastern country, 11 methanol plants maintained their existing load, with an average operating load of 76.82%. As of November 16, the total methanol loading volume this month was 575000 tons [1] 3. Market Analysis - The supply expectation has pushed down the spot prices, especially in coastal areas. The upward driving force for methanol is limited due to less - than - expected winter gas restriction in Iran and high inventory of MTO enterprises [1] 4. Trading Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [1]

2025-11-18甲醇早报 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：需求暂无亮点以及供应压力犹存，预计本周国内甲醇市场震荡整理为主。内地方面，产区尤其是内蒙北线 甲醇工厂库存紧张，加之当前价格整体处于底部空间，多数贸易商做空谨慎对价格有支撑作用。但同时，内地甲醇开工 处于高位，区域间货源流通活跃，进口货源倒流入鲁南外甚至部分流入鲁北，供应仍然充裕，但销区需求支撑一般，贸 易商暂未有持货意愿，预计本周内地行情僵持整理。港口方面，基本面来看，暂时注入海外供应减量的锚点，市场心态 有所转变，但实质上缺乏反转上行的支撑条件，预计本周港口甲醇市场或底部偏强震荡等待反弹契机，关注伊朗装置 ...

| | | 甲醇日评20251117: 库存压力仍存,沿海现货偏弱 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 | 单位 | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/13 | | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2055.00 | 2103.00 | -48.00 | -2.28% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2163.00 | 2208.00 | -45.00 | -2.04% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2202.00 | 2231.00 | -29.00 | -1.30% | | | | 太仓 | 元/呼 | 2045.00 | 2067.50 | -22.50 | -1.09% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2180.00 | 2187.50 | -7.50 | -0.34% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2055.00 | 2075.00 ...