Core Viewpoint - The TBAC committee has submitted materials to the Treasury Department regarding stablecoins, addressing their impact on Treasury demand, dollar hegemony, the expansion of dollar-backed payment stablecoins, and potential effects on deposit-holding institutions [2][10]. Group 1: Development of the Stablecoin Market - Stablecoins are digital assets designed to maintain price stability by anchoring their value to reserve assets like fiat currencies [3][12]. - The stablecoin market has evolved rapidly, driven by institutional interest, regulatory frameworks, and broader on-chain applications, experiencing significant events over the past four years, including the collapse of Terra (UST) in May 2022 and the regional bank crisis in March 2023 [3][20]. - The market is projected to reach a valuation of approximately $2 trillion by 2028, influenced by evolving market dynamics and incentive mechanisms [28]. Group 2: Legislative Framework for Stablecoins - The GENIUS Act, passed by the U.S. Senate in 2025, aims to establish the first federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins, significantly impacting the future of dollar-pegged stablecoins [4][31]. - Key provisions of the GENIUS Act include defining stablecoins, reserve requirements, disclosure and auditing mandates, and consumer protection measures [35]. Group 3: Impact on Bank Deposits - The design of stablecoins will determine their potential impact on bank deposit flows, with non-interest-bearing stablecoins likely leading to a shift towards tokenized money market funds for yield capture [5][37]. - If stablecoins offer interest, they may attract funds from traditional deposits, enhancing their global appeal, especially among existing on-chain holders [5][37]. Group 4: Impact on U.S. Treasury Market - Stablecoin issuers currently hold over $120 billion in short-term U.S. Treasury bills, with projected incremental demand for U.S. Treasuries reaching approximately $900 billion by 2028 due to stablecoin growth [6][43]. - The transition of funds from bank deposits to stablecoins may lead to increased demand for U.S. Treasuries, potentially exacerbated by trust crises or de-pegging events [6][43]. Group 5: Impact on Money Supply - The growth of stablecoins may catalyze a shift of funds from traditional bank deposits to stablecoins, influencing the movement of money from M1/M2 to stablecoins without significantly altering the total money supply [7][49]. Group 6: Market Structure Implications - Historical de-pegging events have highlighted the need for more robust market access mechanisms for stablecoin issuers, akin to banking regulations [8][52]. - The GENIUS Act's stringent reserve requirements aim to prevent "breaking the buck" scenarios, drawing lessons from past money market fund reforms [8][53].

Group 1 - Tether Holdings SA, the largest stablecoin issuer globally, has a dedicated vault in Switzerland storing approximately $8 billion in gold reserves, making it one of the largest holders of gold outside of banks and sovereign institutions [1][2] - The company currently holds nearly 80 tons of gold, with most of it directly owned by Tether, and the gold reserves account for nearly 5% of the total assets backing its stablecoin USDT, which has a circulation of $159 billion [1][2] - Tether's CEO, Paolo Ardoino, stated that the company opted for its own vault to reduce storage costs, especially if the circulation of its gold-backed token XAUT grows to $100 billion [2] Group 2 - The new regulatory framework for stablecoins poses a potential threat to Tether's gold reserves, as recent regulations in the EU and proposed legislation in the US only allow cash and cash equivalents as backing assets for stablecoins [3] - If Tether seeks authorization in relevant markets, it may be required to sell its gold reserves to comply with these regulations, reflecting concerns from regulators about large fund transfers bypassing the traditional banking system [3] Group 3 - Ardoino expressed optimism about the long-term value of gold, suggesting it is a safer asset than any national currency, especially amid concerns over rising US debt [4] - Gold prices have increased by approximately 25% this year, as investors view it as a hedge against geopolitical tensions and expanding trade wars [4] - Strong demand from global central banks and sovereign institutions, particularly from BRICS nations, is also supporting the rise in gold prices [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the dual nature of stablecoins, highlighting their necessity in modern payment systems while also acknowledging the associated risks, particularly in illegal activities [3][4] - Stablecoins serve as a bridge in payment settlements, ultimately requiring conversion to fiat currency for true value transfer, necessitating regulatory oversight to ensure safety and compliance [4][5] - The impact of foreign stablecoins on national currency sovereignty is significant, with the need for regulations to mitigate potential risks while leveraging stablecoins for enhancing the international influence of sovereign currencies [5][6] Group 2 - The relationship between stablecoins and the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is crucial, with the dominance of USD stablecoins indicating a need for RMB stablecoins to support emerging economic development rather than direct competition [6][8] - The interplay between stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is highlighted, with stablecoins excelling in cross-border transactions while CBDCs are more suited for domestic applications, suggesting a complementary relationship [7] - Recommendations for the development of RMB stablecoins include a gradual approach, starting with offshore issuance in Hong Kong and expanding to free trade zones, to enhance the use of offshore RMB and facilitate its internationalization [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent focus on stablecoins has led to warnings from regulatory bodies about the risks of illegal fundraising and fraudulent activities associated with them [1][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Concerns - The Shenzhen Municipal Financial Management Bureau issued a warning about illegal fundraising activities disguised as stablecoin investments, highlighting the risks of scams and financial crimes [1]. - Regulatory measures in China primarily prohibit cryptocurrency trading and restrict banks from providing settlement services for such transactions [2]. - Other regions, including Hong Kong and the U.S., have introduced regulations requiring stablecoin issuers to obtain licenses and adhere to local laws, even for overseas operations [2][3]. Group 2: Market Risks - The potential volatility of stablecoins can lead to significant market panic, especially if a large number of holders attempt to redeem their stablecoins for fiat currency simultaneously [3]. - The lack of interest payments to stablecoin holders and the need for regulatory oversight of the investment areas of stablecoin issuers are critical issues that need addressing [3]. Group 3: Public Awareness and Education - Experts emphasize the importance of public understanding of stablecoins, advising potential investors to avoid participation without adequate knowledge [4]. - The Shenzhen office for combating illegal financial activities warns that institutions engaging in fundraising without proper authorization are operating illegally and may lead to significant financial losses for investors [5].

Group 1: Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong - Hong Kong plans to issue limited stablecoin licenses by the end of 2025, with the initial number expected to be in the "single digits" [1] - The regulatory sandbox initially focused on stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar, but there is growing interest in offshore stablecoins pegged to the Chinese yuan, driven by major tech companies like JD.com and Ant Group [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has established new regulations requiring stablecoin issuers to maintain sufficient asset reserves and segregate customer assets [1] - The new stablecoin policy in Hong Kong sets a global benchmark through full reserve backing, strict redemption guarantees, and oversight by the HKMA, reinforcing its status as a regulated digital finance hub [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact on Supply Chains - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Vietnam from 46% to 20%, although this remains significantly higher than historical levels [2] - Tariff options are still not fully eliminated for key industries such as pharmaceuticals, automotive, and semiconductors, affecting various Asian economies reliant on exports [2] - China is shifting its policy focus towards stimulating domestic demand through reforms and regulatory adjustments, rather than large-scale interventions [2] Group 3: Home Furnishing Sector Valuation - The home furnishing sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is at 22.39, which is at the 34.82% percentile of the past five years, indicating significant room for valuation recovery [3] - Major home furnishing companies like Sophia and Oppein are at historical low valuations, with potential for upward valuation adjustments and high safety margins [3] - The market share of leading custom home furnishing companies is expected to increase due to the inability of white-label brands to participate in subsidies, with companies like Oppein and Sophia showing substantial growth potential [3] - The rise in smart home penetration, driven by technology and policy incentives, is expected to promote industry growth, with companies like Mousse, Haotaitai, and Qushui Technology showing potential [3] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Industry Insights - Despite claims of "zero emissions," the production and recycling of batteries for electric vehicles pose significant environmental challenges, highlighting battery pollution as a future concern [4] - The competition between traditional automotive companies and emerging electric vehicle firms is not on the same track, as their goals and rules differ, making the notion of "overtaking" misleading [4] Group 5: Power Outage in Europe - A large-scale power outage occurred in the Czech Republic on July 4, 2025, lasting approximately nine hours, revealing structural vulnerabilities in modern power systems [5] - The outage led to severe consequences, including the paralysis of railway systems, subway operations, public transport, and communication networks [5] - Increasing extreme weather events add pressure to power systems, particularly affecting transmission lines and increasing grid vulnerability [5] - Historical power outages have demonstrated the risks of single faults leading to widespread system failures, emphasizing the need for upgrades and better monitoring systems in core transmission channels [5]

资料来源：最闻 【山证计算机】AI 算力专题报告：AI 产 业高景气持续，算力国产化大势所趋 2025.5.27 【山证计算机】机器人产业趋势持续强 化，重视上下游投资机会 2025.5.14 分析师： 计算机 行业快报 领先大市-A(维持) 2025 年 7 月 7 日 行业研究/行业快报 计算机行业近一年市场表现 方闻千 执业登记编码：S0760524050001 邮箱：fangwenqian@szxq.com 研究助理： 邮箱：zouxinchen@sxzq.com 全球稳定币监管框架建立，产业将迎来爆发时刻 事件描述： 首选股票 评级 全球稳定币监管立法正快速推进：今年 6 月 17 日，美国参议院以 68 票 比 30 票正式通过 GENIUS 法案，明确了支付型稳定币的定义并提出了稳定 币的发行资质和抵押品要求等，为美元稳定币制定监管框架，目前 GENIUS 法案正递交众议院审议；欧盟 MiCA 法案已于 24 年 12 月 30 日全面生效； 今年 5 月 21 日，香港通过《稳定币条例草案》，并将于 8 月 1 日正式生效， 该条例明确稳定币发行人需在香港金管局申请牌照，并符合储备资产管理、 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong government is set to implement the "Stablecoin Ordinance" in August, which will establish a licensing system for fiat-backed stablecoin issuers in Hong Kong [1][2] - The Financial Secretary, Xu Zhengyu, indicated that the number of licenses issued will be in the "single digits," with expectations to receive applications after the ordinance takes effect [2] - There are currently at least nine institutions interested in applying for stablecoin licenses, including three that are part of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's stablecoin issuer sandbox [2] Group 2 - Following the announcement, Hong Kong's stablecoin concept stocks saw significant gains, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as Guotai Junan International (+10.77%) and Yika (+9.87%) [3] - Stablecoins are expected to facilitate cross-border payments and reduce transaction costs, serving as a local currency alternative in specific regions [4] - Analysts from various securities firms suggest that the stablecoin market is expanding beyond cryptocurrency trading into broader payment applications, indicating a rapid increase in market size and trading activity [4]

近期，市场对稳定币的关注度已上升至火热局面。稍有消息刺激，便引起相关公司股价暴涨，而港股上 市公司更是动辄几十倍上涨，已严重脱离了公司的基本面。 值得一提的是，稳定币本质是锚定资产的信用延伸，价格受锚定资产波动影响，同时还存在脱锚风险。 因此，稳定币的价值并非绝对稳定，市场对稳定币的认知可能存在一定误区。 当前，各国对稳定币的态度不一。有分析人士指出，伴随监管逐步介入，一些试图绕过美元制裁的特殊 地区，原本用于稳定币的交易，可能面临更严格的限制，甚至被禁用。此外，若稳定币创新速度快，监 管政策的制定和实施或难以对所有新型风险和问题及时有效应对。 整体而言，凭借低成本、实时结算和全天候可用等显著优势，稳定币或成为新一代跨境支付基础设施。 但市场投资者也需要警惕稳定币发展过程中可能存在的风险，包括行业可能面临的监管政策风险、发展 过程中可能出现的技术性风险等。 今年6月，美国参议院高票通过《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》，众议院也正快马加鞭推动相 关立法进程。法案规定，稳定币发行人的储备资金只能投向美元现金、活期存款、93天以内的美债、7 天以内的美债回购和逆回购协议等。为提高储备透明度、提升公众信心，发行人 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% over the next 6 months [15]. Core Insights - Stablecoins have become a significant topic in global financial regulation, with major economies moving towards integrating stablecoins into existing financial regulatory frameworks to ensure their safe and controlled participation in payment and settlement scenarios [3]. - Hong Kong is actively establishing a clear regulatory path for stablecoins, having introduced a licensing system for stablecoin issuers, which is set to be implemented on August 1, 2025. This regulatory framework aims to protect consumer rights through capital requirements and reserve management [4]. - The Hong Kong dollar stablecoin is expected to play a crucial role in facilitating regional trade and cross-border financing while enhancing Hong Kong's position in the Asian clearing system [5][6]. Summary by Sections Global Regulatory Trends - Major economies, including the EU and the US, are advancing their regulatory frameworks for stablecoins, with the EU's MiCA set to be implemented by December 2024 and the US accelerating its legislative process [3]. Hong Kong's Regulatory Framework - Hong Kong's proactive approach includes a policy declaration on virtual asset development and the introduction of a sandbox for stablecoin issuers, which has attracted various stakeholders to explore pilot projects [4]. Development Prospects of Hong Kong Dollar Stablecoin - The Hong Kong dollar stablecoin is positioned to become one of the first officially compliant local stablecoins, potentially serving as a bridge for the internationalization of the Renminbi and reinforcing Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [6].

Group 1 - The regulatory framework for stablecoins is becoming clearer, with the Hong Kong Legislative Council passing the Stablecoin Bill, effective from August 1, establishing a licensing system and 1:1 high liquidity asset reserves as core components [2][3] - Cathay Financial International has received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its existing securities trading license to provide virtual asset trading services, allowing direct trading of Bitcoin and stablecoins on its platform [2][3] - The global issuance scale of stablecoins has exceeded $235 billion as of May 2025, indicating significant market growth [2] Group 2 - Several public fund subsidiaries in Hong Kong are actively preparing for the stablecoin ecosystem, participating in sandbox projects led by the Hong Kong government, including stablecoin issuance, payment, asset integration, and fund subscription and redemption [3][4] - Huaxia Fund (Hong Kong) has been involved in multiple sandbox projects and is collaborating with major financial institutions to test end-to-end processes for tokenized fund transactions and cash management solutions [3][4] - The introduction of stablecoin applications in fund management could lead to a noticeable increase in fund management scale, as stated by Huaxia Fund's digital asset management head [4] Group 3 - In April 2024, six virtual asset spot ETFs were officially listed in the Hong Kong market, with major fund companies like Bosera Fund and Huaxia Fund launching Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs that allow direct investment in these cryptocurrencies [5][6] - Huaxia Fund (Hong Kong) has been proactive in the digital asset space, launching Asia's first spot crypto asset ETFs and a tokenized currency fund, aiming to expand its tokenized fund product series [6][7] - Fund companies are rapidly building teams to capture talent in the virtual asset sector, with job postings for product managers requiring experience in virtual assets, fintech, and blockchain [7] Group 4 - Huaxia Fund (Hong Kong) has established a digital asset department to manage the lifecycle of virtual asset products and is focused on integrating traditional financial products with virtual assets and stablecoins [7] - The company plans to continue launching more tokenized fund products and explore the use of digital currencies for settlement to enhance transaction efficiency in the digital financial ecosystem in Hong Kong [7]