1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern has changed. Steel mills' production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has started to decline. However, steel mills' profitability is good, and there is still resilience in ore demand, which supports the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased month - on - month, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound. The supply of ore is expected to increase due to the continuous increase in overseas miners' shipments and the recovery of domestic ore production. The ore price has stopped falling and rebounded again, but the market fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the upward driving force is limited. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and the performance of finished products should be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating with a slight upward bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the MA10 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is stable, and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mills' production is weakly stable, and ore terminal consumption is falling. But steel mills' good profitability provides support for ore demand. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased, but it will rebound according to shipping schedules. Overseas miners' shipments are increasing, and domestic ore production is recovering, so the ore supply is expected to rise. The ore price has rebounded due to demand resilience and improved market sentiment, but the fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the upward drive is limited. The ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the performance of finished products should be noted [3]

| 服务国家 | 走向世界 | | 诚信至上 | 合规经营 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 知行合一 | 专业敬业 | CONNECT CONSULTION CHARDING CALL PRODUCT COLL AND WANT CHOOL CHANAL | 那道管理 | 开拓进取 | 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,790.38 5.17 13,930.23 -139.85 15,279.94 -1,489.56 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,885.22 63.06 8,847.47 37.75 9,2 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a volatile adjustment, and attention should be paid to the support level of MA10. The supply - demand pattern is changing, and the price is adjusting with fluctuations [1]. - The optimistic sentiment is weakening, the high - valued iron ore price is falling with fluctuations, but the fundamentals are still acceptable under the situation of weak supply and strong demand, and the downward space may be limited. The performance of finished steel should be monitored [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, and the intraday trend is slightly bullish. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is changing, and the price is adjusting with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA10 line [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has slightly declined. However, the profitability of steel mills is good, and the demand for ore has certain resilience, which supports the price. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has dropped significantly, while the shipment of overseas miners has started to rise. According to the shipping schedule, the domestic arrival will still decrease, and the short - term supply of overseas ore is difficult to increase. The domestic ore production is rising steadily, and the overall supply remains at a relatively low level [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is rising, the medium - term view is oscillating strongly, and the intraday view is also oscillating strongly. It is advisable to focus on the support at the MA5 line as the supply - demand pattern is good and the ore price is running strongly [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively good. After the end of inspections, steel mills resumed production actively, leading to an increase in terminal consumption of ores. With good profitability of steel mills, the demand for ores has good resilience, providing strong support for the ore price. Although port arrivals have increased as expected, miners' shipments are weak. According to ship schedules, subsequent domestic arrivals will decline again, overseas ore supply will decrease, and domestic ore production will stabilize, resulting in a contraction in supply. In the current situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are good, and the optimistic market sentiment persists, supporting the strong operation of the ore price. However, considering that the valuation has reached a relatively high level, the upside space should be cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, the short - term view is "rising", the medium - term view is "oscillating strongly", and the intraday view is "oscillating strongly". The view reference is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is good and the ore price is running strongly. There are also explanations for the calculation of price fluctuations and the definitions of different trends [2]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is good. Steel mills' resumption of production after inspections boosts terminal consumption, and the good profitability of steel mills ensures demand resilience. Port arrivals increase but miners' shipments are weak, leading to a future decline in domestic arrivals and overseas supply. Domestic ore production stabilizes, resulting in supply contraction. The current situation of weak supply and increasing demand, along with optimistic market sentiment, supports the strong operation of the ore price. However, due to the relatively high valuation, the upside space should be cautiously optimistic, and the performance of finished products should be monitored [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore market shows a short - term upward trend, with a mid - term and intraday tendency of strong oscillation. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation has improved, and the ore price will continue to be strong. However, considering that the valuation has reached a high level, there is a need to guard against the shift of the trading logic to the industrial side [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety View - For the iron ore 2509 variety, the short - term outlook is upward, the mid - term and intraday outlooks are strongly oscillating. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals have improved, and the ore price will continue to be strong. The definitions of rise, fall, and oscillation are also provided [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is favorable. After the end of inspections, steel mills resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore increased again. Steel mills' profitability is good, and the demand for ore is resilient, providing strong support for the ore price. - Although the port arrivals have increased significantly, the miners' shipments are weak. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will decline, resulting in a decrease in overseas ore supply. Domestic ore production is stable, and the supply will contract in the short term. - In the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the iron ore fundamentals have improved, and the industrial pattern is relatively good. Policy expectations have boosted market sentiment, supporting the high - level and strong operation of the ore price [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly weaker. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that optimistic sentiment dominates and the ore price runs strongly [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakly stable. The production of steel mills in the off - season is weakening, the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline but remains at a relatively high level, and the profitability of steel mills is good, providing support for the ore price. The port arrivals have increased significantly, but the shipments of miners are weak. The subsequent arrivals are expected to decrease, and the supply of overseas and domestic ore is shrinking. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of ore are weakly stable, and policy - driven positive expectations support the high - level and strong operation of ore prices, but the valuation is high, and there is a risk of the trading logic switching to the industrial side [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, the short - term is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is oscillating and slightly weaker. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the dominance of optimistic sentiment and the strong operation of ore prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakly stable. The terminal consumption of ore is declining but still at a high level, and the profitability of steel mills provides support for the ore price. The port arrivals have increased, but miner shipments are weak, and the subsequent supply is expected to shrink. The fundamentals are weakly stable, and policy - driven positive expectations support the high - level operation of ore prices, but there is a risk of trading logic switching [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. The inventory has increased again, with more steel mills undergoing inspections, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has declined. Although the daily average pig iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly this week, they are still at relatively high levels, providing support for iron ore prices, but the sustainability needs to be monitored. Overseas iron ore supply has shrunk due to the end of the fiscal - year - end volume rush, while domestic ore supply is stable. Currently, both supply and demand of iron ore have weakened, and the fundamentals have deteriorated again, putting pressure on iron ore prices. However, due to the fermentation of favorable policy expectations and limited contradictions in the black industry, iron ore prices are expected to remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the decline in miners' shipments [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,878.40, a week - on - week decrease of 51.83 and a year - on - year decrease of 1,110.26 [1]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory was 8,918.57, a week - on - week increase of 71.10 and a year - on - year decrease of 294.34 [1]. Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrival volume was 2,363.00, a week - on - week decrease of 199.70 and a year - on - year decrease of 107.20 [1]. - Global 19 - port iron ore shipment volume was 3,357.60, a week - on - week decrease of 149.10 and a year - on - year decrease of 354.90 [1]. - Overseas ore supply has shrunk due to the end of the fiscal - year - end volume rush, and domestic ore supply is stable [2]. Demand - 247 steel mills' daily average pig iron output was 240.85, a week - on - week decrease of 1.44 and a year - on - year increase of 1.53 [1]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption was 300.81, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 and a year - on - year increase of 7.60 [1]. - 45 - port daily average ore - clearing volume was 319.29, a week - on - week decrease of 6.65 and a year - on - year increase of 9.82 [1]. - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions was 98.90, a week - on - week increase of 1.10 and a year - on - year decrease of 6.36 [1].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 乐观情绪未退，矿价偏强运行 | ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所走弱，钢厂临检增多，矿石终端消耗开始回落，但仍位于相对高位，给予矿 价支撑。同时，财年末冲量结束，矿商发运如期回落，而港口到货也环比减量，海外矿石供应迎来收 缩，相应的内矿生产相对积极，矿石供应有所收缩，关注后续降幅情况。目前来看，政策利好预期发 酵，乐观情绪未退，支撑矿价短期维持偏强运行态势，但矿石供需格局走弱，上行高度谨慎乐观，关 注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格， ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局平稳，矿价延续震荡 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎来改善，淡季钢厂生产积极，矿石终端消耗维持高位，需求韧性表现尚可，给 予矿价强支撑。与此同时，港口到货和矿商发运均迎来回落，多因财年末冲量结束后外矿供应如期收 缩，但整体维持相对高位，关注后续降幅情况，相应的内矿生产恢复积极，已重回年内高位，矿石高 位趋稳 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 市场情绪回暖，矿价偏强震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所改善，钢厂生产积极，矿石终端消耗持续回升，需求韧性表现尚可，给予矿 价强支撑。不过，港口到货和矿商发运大幅回升，多因财年末冲量所致，但持续性存疑，而内矿供应 恢复积极，已然重回年内高位，整体矿石供应维持高位。综上，矿石需求韧性表现尚可，且市场情绪 有所 ...