◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 供需格局弱稳，矿价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 12 日） 观点参考 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎来变化，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石需求维持高位，继续给予矿价支撑，但钢材需求 面临季节性走弱，难以承接高铁水局面，预计矿石需求将触顶，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，海外矿商 发运积极，而内矿供应回升，铁矿石供应维持高位，且增量预期未退。总之，中美贸易谈判取得实质 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the concern of demand reaching the peak, which puts pressure on the ore price [2] - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Although the steel mill production is stable and the ore demand is at a high level, the poor performance of steel prices and the hidden worries of steel demand lead to concerns about the peak of ore demand. Meanwhile, the supply of iron ore has returned to a high level, so the ore price is under pressure and runs weakly, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, the short - term is weak and volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weak and volatile. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic of demand reaching the peak concern and the ore price under pressure [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of iron ore has weakened. The steel mill production is stable, and the ore demand is at a high level, which supports the ore price. However, the poor steel price and the hidden worries of steel demand lead to concerns about the peak of ore demand, and the positive effect is weakening. Overseas miners are actively shipping, the domestic ore supply is stable, the iron ore supply has returned to a high level, and there is still an expectation of increase. Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, and the ore price is under pressure and runs weakly, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - and medium - term, and weakly volatile intraday. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line, as the fundamental outlook is weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly. High supply and demand co - exist, the fundamentals have not improved, and there are concerns about demand reaching its peak. The ore price is under pressure, but the macro - environment is warming. The ore price will continue to run in a weakly volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is that the fundamental outlook is weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of iron ore shows high supply and demand. Steel mills are actively producing during the peak season, and ore demand is good, supporting the ore price. However, the profit situation of steel mills is changing, and there is an expectation of weakening steel demand, so the incremental space for ore demand is limited. Overseas ore supply remains high, and domestic ore supply is stable, so the supply pressure of iron ore persists. The fundamentals have not improved, and there are concerns about demand reaching its peak. The ore price is under pressure, while the macro - environment is warming. The ore price will continue to run in a weakly volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局平稳，矿价低位震荡 | 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局平稳运行，钢厂生产积极，矿石需求表现强劲给予矿价支撑，但存触顶担忧，利 好效应趋弱。与此同时，海外矿石供应高位运行，而内矿供应相对平稳，整体铁矿石供应维持高位。 目前来看，铁矿石需求表现强劲，给予矿价支撑，但 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively good. Steel mills are actively producing, and the terminal consumption of ore is rising at a high level. This week, the average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills increased again week - on - week, both hitting new highs for the year. With pre - holiday stockpiling, ore demand is strong, supporting the relatively strong operation of ore prices. However, steel profits are shrinking recently, and steel prices are not performing well, so there are doubts about whether high demand can be maintained. Domestic port arrivals have declined, while overseas miners' shipments are stable. The overseas ore supply is stable, and domestic ore production is weakening. In the short term, the ore supply is weakly stable. With high demand and pre - holiday stockpiling, ore demand is strong, but the expectation of supply increase remains, and there are concerns about demand reaching a peak. The fundamental expectation is weakening, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple factors, it is expected that ore prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 14,261.00, with a week - on - week increase of 205.00, a decrease of 259.40 compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 498.11 compared with the same period last year. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9,073.03, with a week - on - week increase of 20.11, a decrease of 37.42 compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 306.90 compared with the same period last year [1] Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports is 2,325.30, a week - on - week decrease of 200.20, a decrease of 185.30 compared with last month, and a decrease of 63.50 compared with the same period last year. The global 19 - port iron ore shipment volume is 2,925.50, a week - on - week increase of 17.80, a decrease of 159.20 compared with last month, and a decrease of 84.80 compared with the same period last year. The domestic port arrivals have declined, while overseas miners' shipments are stable. According to the shipping schedule, the domestic port arrival volume is expected to increase steadily, and the overseas ore supply is stable. Domestic ore production is weakening, and the short - term ore supply is weakly stable [1][2] Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 244.35, a week - on - week increase of 4.23, an increase of 7.07 compared with last month, and an increase of 15.63 compared with the same period last year. The average daily consumption of imported ore of 247 steel mills is 301.39, a week - on - week increase of 3.29, an increase of 7.89 compared with last month, and an increase of 21.92 compared with the same period last year. The average weekly value of iron ore transactions at main ports is 107.68, a week - on - week increase of 6.12, a decrease of 0.78 compared with last month, and an increase of 1.34 compared with the same period last year. The average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills increased again week - on - week, both hitting new highs for the year. With pre - holiday stockpiling, ore demand is strong, but there are doubts about whether high demand can be maintained due to shrinking steel profits and poor steel prices [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This week, the iron ore price fluctuated. As of Friday's close, the main contract of iron ore futures closed at 699 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decline of 1.27%. The Mysteel 62% Australian powder forward price index was 98.4 US dollars/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.05 US dollars/ton, or 0.05%. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 756 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 6 yuan/ton, or 0.79% [3]. - In terms of supply, the latest data from Mysteel shows that the global iron ore shipments this period were 29.08 million tons, a decrease of 140,000 tons week-on-week. Among them, the shipments from Australia increased slightly, while the shipments from non-mainstream regions decreased significantly. The arrivals at 45 ports of iron ore this period were 25.255 million tons, an increase of 3.368 million tons week-on-week, or 15.4%, which is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past three years [3]. - In terms of demand, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.56%, an increase of 0.28% week-on-week and 4.70% year-on-year. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.15%, a decrease of 0.04% week-on-week and an increase of 5.56% year-on-year. The steel mill profitability rate was 54.98%, an increase of 1.3% week-on-week and 6.5% year-on-year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4012 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons week-on-week and an increase of 1.39 million tons year-on-year [3]. - In terms of inventory, the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports in the country was 140.56 million tons, a decrease of 2.85 million tons week-on-week, showing a slight de-stocking trend at the ports. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.0951 million tons, a decrease of 0.0854 million tons week-on-week [4]. - Overall, the short-term iron ore fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the impact of supply-side changes on the industrial chain. In the long run, the iron ore market still presents a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand [2][4]. Strategies - Unilateral: Pay attention to the opportunity to sell for hedging after the price rebounds (preferably swap hedging) [5]. - Inter-period: None [5]. - Cross-variety: None [6]. - Spot-futures: None [6]. - Options: None [6].