Core Viewpoint - The global cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping below the psychological threshold of 100,000 USD, which poses a serious pressure test for Japan's recently optimistic crypto market [1] Market Dynamics - Japanese investors' cryptocurrency assets reached over 5 trillion JPY (approximately 33.16 billion USD) by the end of July, marking a 25% increase from the previous month, reflecting a peak period of market enthusiasm [1] - By the end of September, this asset size slightly decreased to 4.9 trillion JPY, indicating the initial effects of market cooling [1] - The current inflation rate in Japan is outpacing wage growth, leading to a heightened risk appetite among investors for high-risk investments [1] Regulatory Environment - Industry players are actively preparing for market growth, with discussions around regulatory adjustments that may lower cryptocurrency tax rates and ease restrictions on leveraged trading and asset securitization [2] - The Financial Services Agency (FSA) in Japan is refining regulatory proposals, which are expected to be submitted to the Diet for review, potentially coming into effect by 2026 or 2027 [8] Industry Growth Potential - The number of individuals with securities accounts is approximately three times that of cryptocurrency accounts, indicating significant growth potential in the market [4] - The CEO of Bitbank noted that the supportive stance of the Trump administration towards cryptocurrencies has influenced Japan's regulatory approach to be more favorable [5] New Product Launches - Established exchanges are launching new products and services in anticipation of regulatory changes, including potential tax reforms that could stimulate trading activity [8] - Coincheck has partnered with Mercari to offer a wider range of cryptocurrency options to its user base, which has seen significant growth in accounts [8] Investor Behavior - Retail investors are increasingly pursuing high returns, with some allocating over 90% of their assets to cryptocurrencies, driven by the desire to diversify away from low-yield assets [11] - The volatility of cryptocurrency prices poses significant risks to new investors, with industry experts advising caution and suggesting that cryptocurrencies should be viewed as alternative assets rather than core holdings [11][12]

Core Insights - Bitcoin price has dropped below the critical support level of $100,000 for the first time since June, with a decline of over 18% in just one month, equating to a loss of more than $22,400 per Bitcoin [1][2] - The total market capitalization of Bitcoin has shrunk by over 2.62% in the same month, resulting in a loss of approximately $60 billion [1] - Other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum and XRP, have experienced even steeper declines, with Ethereum down over 29% and XRP down over 25% [1] Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market typically sees strong performance in the fourth quarter, but current market conditions raise questions about whether bullish sentiment can be restored by year-end [2] - A significant sell-off in the U.S. stock market has led to increased volatility, with over 438,000 liquidations in the cryptocurrency market amounting to $7.3 billion [2] - The recent downturn in Bitcoin's price represents a shift in market sentiment, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as U.S. tariff policies and inflation pressures, which have led to a flight to safer dollar assets [3][4] Investor Behavior - The massive liquidation event on October 11 has altered market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies, with many investors adopting a more cautious approach [5][6] - Institutional demand for Bitcoin has reportedly fallen below the rate of new coin mining, indicating a retreat from large buyers and a shift towards risk aversion [5][6] - The market is currently experiencing a trust crisis, with reduced trading activity and a shift in strategies towards defensive positions among institutional traders [6] Future Outlook - Key support levels for Bitcoin are critical, with analysts suggesting that maintaining a price above $98,000 is essential to avoid further declines into the $70,000-$90,000 range [7] - The market may face a prolonged period of consolidation, with the potential for recovery dependent on the restoration of investor confidence and capital flow [7] - Despite the current challenges, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term performance, citing the ongoing interest from compliant institutions and the potential for a recovery in market dynamics [7]

Core Insights - On November 5, a total of $797 million was withdrawn from U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs during a market downturn, indicating a significant shift in institutional holdings [1] Group 1: Market Movements - The net outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $577.74 million, marking the largest single-day outflow since August 1 [1] - Fidelity's FBTC fund experienced an outflow of $356.6 million, while ARK and 21Shares' ARKB saw a withdrawal of $128 million, and Grayscale's GBTC had an outflow of $48.9 million [1] Group 2: Institutional Behavior - The continuous outflow over five days signifies a decisive change in institutional positions, reflecting a portfolio rebalancing [1] - The revaluation of risk assets is closely tied to the performance of technology stocks, which are currently putting pressure on cryptocurrencies [1] Group 3: Market Correlation - The excessive expansion of AI trading could lead to a decline in industry valuations, potentially impacting the cryptocurrency market through its correlation with the Nasdaq [1]

以下文章来源于科创日报 ，作者周子意 科创日报 . 科创圈都在关注的主流媒体，上海报业集团主管主办，《科创板日报》出品。 比特币再度经历暴跌，但这次导致市场崩溃的并非杠杆作用，而是来自于"比特币巨鲸"（指的是那些持有1000至10000枚比特币的实体） 的积极抛售。 比特币价格在周二（11月4日）美国交易时段内一度下跌了7.4%，自6月以来首次跌破10万美元大关。与一个月前创下的历史最高价相比， 其价格已跌超20%。截至周三（11月5日）亚洲早盘，比特币虽有收复部分跌幅，但仍难以企稳。 这波跌势与去年10月的暴跌不同，那次暴跌是由杠杆爆仓引发的连锁性抛售行为，而此次下跌则是由现货市场持续的抛售压力所导致的。 10x Research公司的负责人Markus Thielen指出，过去一个月里， 一些比特币长期持有者已售出约40万枚比特币，总计撤出资金约450亿 美元，导致市场出现失衡。 与此同时，根据CoinGlass的数据， 过去24小时内，约有20亿美元的加密货币仓位被平仓，这一数字与上个月暴跌期间的190亿美元强制 平仓规模相比似乎相对温和。 由于杠杆作用相对减弱，人们的注意力已转向那些选择出售的长期投资 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid tariff policies and geopolitical events causing global financial market volatility, the value of gold as a traditional safe - haven asset is increasingly prominent. Blockchain technology has spurred the rise of cryptocurrencies and given birth to gold - backed stablecoins, which combine gold's safe - haven nature with the high liquidity and decentralization of cryptocurrencies, offering new investment and risk - management tools for the traditional gold market and creating new buyers for gold [1][7]. - The report analyzes tokenized gold models represented by Pax Gold and Tether Gold, as well as the PGI scheme proposed by the World Gold Council in September 2025, and explores the differences and complementarities among the traditional gold market, tokenized gold models, and the PGI model [1][7]. - Gold - backed stablecoins, represented by XAUt and PAXG, have advantages such as low investment thresholds and low fees, with relatively low margin occupancy, but also face regulatory compliance issues due to decentralization and currently have a small scale. The PGI scheme shows the ambition to combine compliance and flexibility, with unique advantages in pledge and lease convenience, but its specific performance and market impact need further observation after implementation [3][45]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Basics: The Technological Foundation for Understanding Gold - Backed Stablecoins 1.1 Core Features of Blockchain - Blockchain has two core features: non - tamperability and decentralization. Non - tamperability means that each transaction record on the blockchain is stored in a chained manner through encryption algorithms. To modify a historical transaction record in a block, one must modify a series of blockchain records and their cryptographic proofs, making the transaction records on the blockchain non - tamperable and non - forgeable [8]. - Decentralization means that the entire blockchain network has no single centralized server but consists of numerous nodes with equal rights, connected peer - to - peer. Transaction records are broadcast to the whole network, and all nodes can verify and store the complete transaction ledger, which helps build a trust mechanism and makes the network more secure and stable [11]. 1.2 Classification of Cryptocurrencies and the Positioning of Gold - Backed Stablecoins - Cryptocurrencies can be classified into three categories based on value anchoring: native cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin and Ether), stablecoins (e.g., USDT), and real - world assets (RWA). Gold - backed stablecoins are positioned between stablecoins and RWA, mainly as "convenient on - chain gold investment products" rather than "on - chain currencies" [15][17][18]. 2. Overview of Mainstream Gold - Backed Stablecoins: Pax Gold and Tether Gold 2.1 Pax Gold (PAXG): A Compliance Benchmark with Priority on Regulation - PAXG is an ERC - 20 standard gold token issued by Paxos in September 2019 on the Ethereum blockchain, with excellent compatibility. Paxos actively seeks higher - level financial regulation. Each PAXG token corresponds to 1 ounce of LBMA - certified physical gold stored in London vaults, and token holders can trace the corresponding gold. PAXG can be redeemed for legal tender, other cryptocurrencies, or physical gold. As of late October 2025, its market value has increased by 153.16% in the past year to about $1.35 billion, and the number of investment gold ounces has grown from 196,700 ounces to 332,000 ounces [22][24][25]. 2.2 Tether Gold (XAUt): A Late - Comer Dominator Backed by Tether - XAUt is issued by Tether, the issuer of the largest US dollar stablecoin USDT. It has become the leader in the gold - backed stablecoin market. Technically and in terms of reserves, it is similar to PAXG, but its compliance process is relatively slow. Tether is not a licensed financial institution, and its financial compliance risk is more uncertain. As of late October 2025, its market value has increased by 215.61% in the past year to about $2.14 billion, and the number of investment gold ounces has grown from 246,300 ounces to 521,800 ounces [27][28][29]. 2.3 Price Difference between Gold - Backed Stablecoins and Spot Gold - The quotes of mainstream gold - backed stablecoins represented by XAUt and PAXG are basically the same as the London gold spot price, but there are still price differences, with the premium or discount fluctuating within ±$100 per ounce [30]. 3. The World Gold Council's PGI Scheme: A Revolutionary Framework Combining Law, Technology, and Regulation 3.1 Background of the PGI Proposal - The traditional physical gold investment market has two trading models: allocated and unallocated gold models, both of which have pain points. The allocated gold model has a high investment threshold, poor liquidity, and holding costs, while the unallocated gold model has prominent counter - party risks. The PGI scheme is designed to address these issues [37]. 3.2 Core Design of PGI - The core design of PGI includes legal, technological, and regulatory aspects. Legally, it solves the legal difficulty of "divisible ownership" of physical gold, defining PGI as an "intangible movable property" with an account - isolation - like risk - control mechanism. Technologically, it is "technology - neutral", does not require physical delivery, and supports a minimum trading unit of one - thousandth of an ounce, with high liquidity. In terms of regulation, it meets the requirements of mainstream financial regulatory regulations in the US and Europe and can be used as a compliant collateral [38]. 4. Comparison of Gold Investment Tools - In terms of investment thresholds, gold - backed stablecoins and PGI have significantly lower thresholds. Gold - backed stablecoins have an advantage in holding costs. In terms of regulation, gold - backed stablecoins are weakly regulated due to decentralization, while PGI tries to balance blockchain technology and regulation. In terms of market scale, gold - backed stablecoins currently have a small scale, and the performance of PGI remains to be seen [43][44][45].

Group 1: IPO Market Insights - The IPO financing in China reached $35.9 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, nearly doubling compared to the same period in 2024, indicating a significant market sentiment shift [1] - Global IPO total reached $110.1 billion, a 41% year-on-year increase, but still far below the $446 billion level seen in the same period of 2021, reflecting a healthy market state [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Trends - The return of manufacturing to the U.S. should not be viewed as a short-term investment anchor, as the relationship between production location and profit is not straightforward [3] - Many multinational companies continue to maintain production in China, with some shifting to nearby regions like Mexico and Canada to balance costs and market access [3] - The long factory establishment cycle, which can take several years, exceeds the typical stock pricing window of 3 to 30 months, making bets based on relocation expectations speculative rather than value-driven [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Risks - The surge in Bitcoin prices in 2025 does not change its fundamental lack of support, as it has no industrial use, profit return, or yield data, making it highly susceptible to market sentiment [3] - Historical data shows Bitcoin experienced an 83% drop from 2017 to 2018 and a 77% drop from 2021 to 2023, indicating extreme volatility beyond the risk tolerance of average investors [3] - The prevalence of fraud and money laundering in the cryptocurrency sector has made it a focus of global regulatory scrutiny, with China's trading ban serving as a warning signal [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - Current market concerns surrounding cryptocurrencies, AI bubbles, and interest rates are seen as fuel for the continuation of a bull market [5] - Investors are advised to maintain rational valuations for IPOs, adopt a long-term perspective on industry trends, and avoid assets lacking fundamental support [5] - Balancing emotion and value is essential for navigating market cycles effectively [5]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,935.41 points, down 0.07% or 16.99 points, and a total trading volume of HKD 238.825 billion [1] - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains positive according to Founder Securities, citing a resilient economic backdrop and continuous policy support [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corp (00322) led blue-chip gains, rising 4.31% to HKD 11.86, contributing 1.57 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable blue-chip movements included Zijin Mining (02899) up 2.4% and Xinyi Glass (00868) up 2.29%, while New Oriental Education (09901) fell 3.18% [2] Sector Performance Technology Sector - The technology sector faced pressure with Alibaba down 0.31%, while Meituan saw a rise of over 1% [3] - Concerns over high valuations in AI stocks led to a sell-off, with significant declines in stocks like Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) and Kingsoft (03888) [5] Lithium Battery Sector - Lithium battery stocks gained momentum, with companies like Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (03931) rising 7.81% and Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 4.68% [3] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate reached a peak of 117,000 CNY per ton, nearly doubling since early October, indicating a potential price increase cycle [3] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector showed strong performance, with China Eastern Airlines (00670) up 4.57% and China National Aviation Holding (00753) up 3.75% [4] - The announcement of an extended Spring Festival holiday in 2026 is expected to boost consumer spending and tourism [4] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency sector continued to decline, with notable drops in stocks like Guotai Junan International (01788) down 5% and OSL Group (00863) down 4.07% [6] - Bitcoin prices fell below USD 100,000 for the first time since June, contributing to a broader market downturn [6] Notable Stock Movements - Harbin Electric (01133) surged 10.01% to HKD 14.83, driven by increased confidence in China's electricity demand growth [7] - Yuansheng Robotics (02432) rose 4.99% following a strategic partnership with Lens Technology [8] - Minglue Technology (02718) experienced a significant drop of 21.59% after a volatile debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [9][10] - HOME CONTROL (01747) fell 9.09% amid regulatory scrutiny regarding its shareholding structure [11]

另一方面，超级巨鲸过去一个月抛售价值450亿美元的比特币，比特币价格一度下跌7.4%，加密货币概 念股全天弱势，教育股、餐饮股、汽车股、半导体股普遍低迷。此外，赛力斯港股上市首日平收。(格 隆汇) 盘面上，大型科技股跌幅收窄但总体依旧弱势，京东、阿里巴巴、百度、小米皆有跌幅，美团逆势涨 1.3%；国家电网完成固定资产投资超4200亿元，电网、电气设备新能源午后拉升较为明显，其中，哈 尔滨电气大涨超10%，东方电气、东北电气、金风科技齐涨；航空股全天维持强势行情，中国东方航空 续刷阶段新高；铜、黄金等有色金属股反弹拉升，大金融银行股继续涨势，濠赌股、手游股、建材水泥 股、家电股多数上涨。 午后市场明显回暖，恒生指数、国企指数一度转涨，最终分别收跌0.07%及0.11%，恒指在26000点附近 反复震荡，恒生科技指数跌0.56%相对最弱，三大指数均呈现低开高走行情。 ...

Market Overview - Multiple market institutions indicate that the US stock market may face a correction, with potential declines of 10% to 15% anticipated[15] - Major US indices collectively declined on November 4, 2025, with the Nasdaq down 2.04%, S&P 500 down 1.17%, and Dow Jones down 0.53%[9] Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.79%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.76%[9] - Notable declines in large tech stocks included Intel down over 6%, Nvidia down over 3%, and Tesla down over 5%[9] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3960.19, down 0.41% for the day, but up 16.23% year-to-date[3] Sector Insights - Gold stocks led declines in the metals sector due to short-term demand pressure from adjustments in gold value-added tax[9] - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant drop, with over $1.2 billion in positions liquidated within 24 hours[9] Investment Trends - Net inflows from mainland investors into Hong Kong exceeded HKD 9 billion, indicating continued interest despite market volatility[9] - Major technology stocks such as Xiaomi and JD.com saw declines of nearly 3%[9] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate in the US rose to 4.3% as of August 2025, with significant disparities across states, reflecting pressures from layoffs in the tech sector[14] - Japan's corporate profits showed a year-on-year increase of 28.7%, driven by strong overseas demand, particularly in electronics and precision instruments[14]

Market Overview - Ethereum has dropped below $3100, experiencing a decline of over 14% [2] - Other cryptocurrencies such as BNB, Solana, and STETH have also seen declines exceeding 5% [3] Cryptocurrency Price Data - Bitcoin (BTC) latest price: $101,095, down 5.03% in the last 24 hours, with a market cap of approximately $2.02 trillion [4] - Ethereum (ETH) latest price: $3,273.55, down 8.79%, with a market cap of approximately $395.11 billion [4] - BNB latest price: $935.31, down 5.46% [4] - Solana (SOL) latest price: $154.56, down 6.61% [4] - STETH latest price: $3,267.96, down 8.98% [4] Liquidation Data - Over 470,000 liquidations occurred in the cryptocurrency market in the past 24 hours, totaling $2.025 billion, with long positions accounting for $1.63 billion and short positions for $400 million [5] Market Sentiment and Analysis - Markus Thielen from 10x Research indicates that the $100,000 mark for Bitcoin is a critical support level, and a drop below this could trigger further sell-offs due to algorithmic trading [6] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is adding uncertainty to the cryptocurrency market, with potential GDP impacts estimated at a decline of 1-2% for Q4 [7] - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have intensified selling pressure, pushing the dollar index to a three-month high [8] Future Price Predictions - CryptoQuant suggests that if Bitcoin fails to hold the $100,000 support level, it could decline to around $72,000 [10] - Analysts believe that the current market conditions reflect a significant adjustment phase following recent liquidation events, impacting investor behavior [10]