最新物价指数公布，我国部分领域价格已呈现积极变化。 从同比看，CPI略有下降，主要受国际油价下行影响。能源价格同比下降4.8%，降幅比上月扩大2.2个百分 点。其中汽油价格下降10.4%，影响CPI同比下降约0.38个百分点，是带动CPI同比下降的主要因素。 PPI环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同。影响本月PPI下降的主要原因是国际输入性因素影响国内相关行业价 格下行，以及国内部分能源价格季节性下降。 董莉娟表示，我国促消费等宏观政策加力扩围，高技术产业加快成长，部分行业需求增加，一些领域价格 呈现积极变化，一是部分行业供需关系有所改善，价格降幅收窄；二是高技术产业发展带动相关行业价格 上涨。 中国人民银行最新发布《2025年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》认为，随着扩大内需政策落地显效，市 场需求加快释放，将更好支撑物价水平温和回升。 如何看待当前的物价指数？后续走势如何？数据公布后，风口智库多位专家做出解读。 国家统计局5月10日公布的数据显示，4月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比下降0.1%，环比上涨 0.1%；全国工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）同比下降2.7%，环比下降0.4%。 国家统计局城市 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April turned from a decline to an increase, indicating a positive change in certain sectors due to coordinated macro policies and solid progress in high-quality development [1][3][4] - In April, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than the seasonal level [3] - The month-on-month increase in CPI was primarily driven by the rebound in prices of food and travel services, with seafood prices rising due to the fishing moratorium and limited supply of certain fruits affecting prices of tubers and fresh fruits [4] Group 2 - Year-on-year, the CPI showed a slight decline, mainly influenced by falling international oil prices, with gasoline prices being a significant factor in the year-on-year decrease [6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.5%, maintaining stability, with service prices increasing by 0.3% [6] - The overall price stability reflects an improvement in the relationship between total demand and total supply, with service consumption showing resilience and potential for growth [8] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China reported that the monetary policy in the first quarter showed significant counter-cyclical adjustment effects, with stable growth in financial totals and optimized credit structure [9] - The central bank plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, flexibly adjusting the intensity and pace of policy implementation based on domestic and international economic conditions [9]

Economic Overview - The National Bureau of Statistics indicates that despite international input factors exerting downward pressure on prices in certain industries, China's economic foundation remains stable and resilient, with macro policies working in synergy to promote high-quality development [1][2] - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1% after a previous decline of 0.4%, while year-on-year, it decreased by 0.1% [1][4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.4%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, which is an expansion of the decline by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5] CPI Analysis - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.5% in April, maintaining a stable growth rate [2] - The year-on-year CPI decline is primarily influenced by a significant drop in international oil prices, with energy prices decreasing by 4.8% year-on-year, and gasoline prices falling by 10.4%, contributing approximately 0.38 percentage points to the CPI decline [4] PPI Analysis - The PPI's decline is attributed to international input factors affecting domestic industry prices, with global commodity prices, including Brent crude oil and LME copper, experiencing declines of 6.6% and 5.5% respectively [5][6] - Domestic energy prices are also seasonally declining, particularly in coal mining and processing, which saw a month-on-month decrease of 3.3% [6] Price Trends in Specific Industries - Certain industries are witnessing positive price changes due to improved supply-demand relationships, with construction and manufacturing sectors showing signs of recovery [7] - Prices in the black metal smelting and rolling industry and non-metallic mineral products industry have seen a narrowing of year-on-year declines by 1.4 and 1.0 percentage points respectively [7] - The prices of consumer goods and equipment manufacturing products are also rebounding, with household washing machines and new energy vehicles showing reduced year-on-year price declines [7][8] Export and Trade Impact - The ongoing diversification of trade is leading to price increases or reduced declines in some export sectors, such as integrated circuit packaging and testing, which saw a price increase of 2.7% [8] - The government emphasizes the importance of maintaining reasonable price levels to balance consumer spending and corporate profitability, with policies aimed at promoting price recovery [8]

Core Viewpoint - In April, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, indicating a continued downward trend in industrial prices [1] Group 1: PPI Trends - The PPI in April fell by 0.4% compared to the previous month, maintaining the same decline rate as in March [1] - The primary reasons for the PPI decline include international input factors affecting domestic industry prices and seasonal decreases in certain domestic energy prices [1] Group 2: Economic Policies and Industry Growth - The Chinese government's macro policies aimed at boosting consumption are being intensified, leading to an expansion in high-tech industries [1] - There is an increase in demand in certain sectors, resulting in positive price changes in some areas [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [3] Core Viewpoints - The April Politburo meeting set a positive tone for the economy, emphasizing the implementation of more proactive macro - policies. China's Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, but the April official manufacturing PMI declined, indicating the impact of tariff policies. A package of financial policies were introduced on May 7 to boost the economy [1] - The impact of tariff events on sentiment has subsided, and attention should be paid to their impact on the economy. Tariff negotiations are progressing, which may lead to more moderate macro - fluctuations. Before July, macro - economic activities are expected to focus on factual verification [1] - For commodities, attention should be paid to the transmission of fundamentals in the short - term and stagflation allocation in the long - term. Be wary of the emotional impact of US stock adjustments on industrial products and the price fluctuations of agricultural products. Crude oil supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, and be cautious about the emotional and corrective risks of gold [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The April Politburo meeting judged the current economy, advocated more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and proposed measures such as increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups and promoting urban renewal. China's Q1 GDP maintained a stable and upward trend, but the April official manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, with new orders and production in the contraction range [1] - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies, including the central bank's ten monetary policy measures, the financial regulatory administration's eight incremental policies, and the CSRC's measures to stabilize and activate the capital market [1] - The Trump tariff policy is still volatile. The US imposed a 25% tariff on imported auto parts on May 3, and considered a 100% tariff on foreign - made movies. Tariff negotiations between the US and other countries are in progress, and the EU proposed a tariff plan for US goods worth 95 billion euros if the negotiation fails [1] - The US May FOMC meeting kept the target interest rate unchanged, indicating increased economic uncertainty. The yield of Japanese 30 - year treasury bonds soared on May 7. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May, and traders reduced their bets on further interest rate cuts [1] Commodity Analysis - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff - addition events first affected demand and then inflation. Be cautious about the emotional impact of US stock adjustments on industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals [2] - The US - Ukraine mineral agreement was signed on April 30 and approved by the Ukrainian parliament on May 8. An accident at the Antamina copper mine in Peru supported copper prices. The demand for agricultural products is relatively stable, and pay attention to the change in the soybean - palm oil price difference [2] - The IEA monthly report lowered the forecast for this year's oil demand. OPEC+ confirmed a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in June and may continue the production - increase rhythm in July. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas by the end of 2027 [2] - Due to the high uncertainty of the Trump tariff policy, be cautious about the emotional and corrective risks of gold [2] Strategy - The investment strategy for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [3] Important News - Trump announced a comprehensive agreement with the UK, and other agreements are in negotiation. The EU proposed a tariff plan for US goods worth 95 billion euros if the negotiation fails [5] - The Bank of England's rate - cut decision had different views among its members, and it proposed two scenarios for decision - making [5] - The Ukrainian parliament approved the US - Ukraine mineral agreement on May 8, with some concerns about the details of the agreement [5]

Investment Rating - The report provides a stable outlook for the trade industry, indicating a steady growth in import and export activities despite external challenges [2][5]. Core Insights - In 2024, China's total import and export value reached 61,622.89 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, with exports rising by 5.9% and imports by 1.1% [4]. - The trade surplus for 2024 was 9,921.55 billion USD, an increase of 1,700.53 billion USD compared to 2023, indicating a significant growth in trade surplus [4]. - The report highlights a shift in export dynamics, with stronger performance in exports to ASEAN and other developing economies compared to developed economies like the US and EU [8][9]. Summary by Sections Trade Performance - In Q1 2025, China's foreign trade showed a stable start with a total import and export value of 14,343.67 billion USD, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year [5]. - Exports in Q1 2025 reached 8,536.67 billion USD, up 5.8% year-on-year, while imports fell by 7.0% to 5,807.00 billion USD [5]. Product Structure - The export product structure is improving, with mechanical and electrical products dominating, accounting for 59.4% of total exports in 2024, valued at 21,255.0 billion USD, a growth of 7.5% [9]. - The report notes significant growth in shipbuilding exports, which increased by 25.1% in volume and 57.3% in value [11]. Commodity Price Trends - The report discusses the fluctuating prices of commodities, with crude oil prices expected to face downward pressure in 2025 due to various geopolitical and economic factors [13]. - Coal prices are also projected to decline due to a relaxed supply-demand balance, with average prices dropping from 1,748 RMB/ton to 1,380 RMB/ton by the end of 2024 [19]. Currency Exchange Rate Analysis - The report indicates that the RMB exchange rate showed a two-way fluctuation in 2024, with the offshore RMB reaching a high of 6.97 and a low of 7.36 against the USD [26]. - The RMB index against a basket of currencies increased by 4.2% year-on-year, reflecting its resilience amid external pressures [26]. Policy and Focus Areas - The report outlines key policies aimed at promoting foreign trade and enhancing resource allocation capabilities for bulk commodities, including adjustments to export tax rebates [29]. - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US is expected to significantly impact China's direct exports to the US, with potential declines in overall export volumes [31]. Future Outlook - The global trade environment is expected to face increased uncertainty in 2025, influenced by US policies and inflation risks, which may hinder export growth [34]. - Domestic policies are anticipated to support economic recovery, with an emphasis on infrastructure investment and consumer demand [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend, and it will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity shifting downward [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and operate within a range, with low inventory providing some support [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of total construction steel production [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and the daily output affected during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with little price support [2] Aluminum - As of Thursday, the national metallurgical alumina's total built - in production capacity is 109.22 million tons/year, the total operating capacity is 87.02 million tons/year, and the weekly operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 79.67% [2] - Before the festival, the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 61.6% week - on - week and 2.8 percentage points year - on - year. Except for the aluminum cable operating rate rising, other sectors decreased [2] - On May 8, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 620,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from Tuesday and an increase of 6,000 tons from April 30 [2] - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory performance during the May Day holiday was better than expected, and the inventory accumulation was controllable. The inventory continued to decline after the festival, indicating strong consumption resilience [2]

求端，不锈钢价格走弱，原料成本较高情况下，不锈钢厂出现利润倒挂情况，后续存在减产预期，下游现 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 货采购需求偏淡；新能源汽车需求继续爬升，但占比较小影响有限。近期国内库存震荡下降，但海外维持 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 累库。技术面，持仓持稳交投平淡，关注MA10压力。操作上，建议暂时观望。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪镍产业日报 2025-05-08 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-08 美联储再次暂停降息，关注英国央行政策利率 市场分析 4月政治局会议定调积极。4月25日，我国召开政治局会议，"今年经济呈现向好态势""外部冲击影响加大"定调当下 经济判断，对于宏观政策，会议表示"加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽 松的货币政策，适时降准降息"，此外"提高中低收入群体收入"、"推进城市更新和城中村、危旧房改造"等措词也 值得关注。中国一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，延续去年以来持续稳中向好、稳中回升的态势。中国4月官方制造业PMI 49，预期49.7，前值 50.5。新订单和生产分项双双回落至收缩区间，新出口订单大幅回落，说明关税政策对基本 面的冲击已逐步显现。5月7日，"一行一局一会"出台一揽子金融政策提振经济，央行推出三大类共十项货币政策 措施，包括降准0.5个百分点，降低政策利率0.1个百分点，创设新的政策工具等；金融监管总局将推出八项增量政 策，涉房地产金融、险资入市、稳外贸等；证监会表示将"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"，稳步推进市场对外开放。 中国4月外汇储备规模为32817亿美元，环比上升1.27%，央行连续六个月增 ...

撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19,465.00 | -320.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,704.00 | +29.00↑ | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 65.00 | +5.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -3.00 | +3.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 194,811.00 | +11053.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 297,760.00 | +10178.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 160,900.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 285,278.00 | -12598.00↓ | | | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2,427.00 | -4.50↓ ...