Group 1: Investment Trends - In the first seven months of the year, national fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the growth rate from January to June [1] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) grew by 3.2% year-on-year, which is a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous six months [1] Group 2: Foreign Trade Outlook - Despite weak global economic growth and various external uncertainties impacting foreign trade, the country will continue to promote high-level opening-up and maintain its complete industrial system advantages [2] - Foreign trade enterprises are actively adapting to challenges, and the sustained effectiveness of stable foreign trade policies will continue to support steady foreign trade development [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Economic Policies - Recent efforts to expand domestic demand and build a unified domestic market have improved some market supply-demand relationships, leading to positive price changes [5] - The foundation for a reasonable price recovery will be continuously strengthened due to more proactive macro policies, ongoing consumption stimulation actions, and regulatory measures against disorderly competition among enterprises [5]

Core Viewpoint - The July economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a mixed performance in various sectors, with exports showing resilience while other indicators like retail sales and investment have seen a decline compared to June [1][7]. Group 1: Trade and Exports - In July, the total goods import and export volume reached 3.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. Exports amounted to 2.31 trillion yuan, growing by 8.0%, while imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up by 4.8% [1]. - July marked the second consecutive month of export growth, with an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to June. Imports also showed significant improvement, with a rise of 2.4 percentage points from June [1][3]. - Despite a decline in exports to the U.S. due to tariffs, Chinese companies are actively exploring non-U.S. markets, leading to faster growth in exports to these regions [3]. Group 2: Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July reached 3.88 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, but a month-on-month decline of 0.14%. Retail sales of goods grew by 4.0%, while catering revenue increased by only 1.1% [3][5]. - The consumption upgrade policy significantly boosted the sales of key consumer goods in July, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment showing year-on-year growth rates of 28.7%, 13.8%, 20.6%, and 14.9% respectively [5]. Group 3: Investment Trends - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 28.82 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, while infrastructure investment increased by 3.2%, and real estate development investment fell by 12% [6]. - The decline in investment growth is attributed to various factors, including extreme weather conditions affecting construction, complex external environments, and weakened investment momentum in traditional sectors like real estate [6][7]. - The actual growth rate of fixed asset investment, after adjusting for price factors, is estimated to be around 4% to 5%, indicating steady expansion in physical investment [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that recent policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption are showing positive effects, leading to improvements in market supply and demand relationships and some positive price changes [1][2] - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, with industrial consumer goods prices rising by 0.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, but the decline was narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first contraction in the rate of decline since March [1] Group 2 - The prices of coal, steel, cement, photovoltaic products, and lithium battery manufacturing saw a reduction in month-on-month decline rates by 0.1 to 1.9 percentage points, contributing to a decrease in the downward pressure on PPI by 0.14 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Despite external uncertainties and competitive pressures in some domestic industries, the foundation for reasonable price recovery is being strengthened by more proactive macro policies and ongoing actions to boost consumption [2]

Group 1 - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed positive changes, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, reversing the previous month's decline of 0.1% [1] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service and industrial consumer goods prices, with significant price hikes in transportation-related services due to the summer travel season [1][2] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a steady upward trend [2][3] Group 2 - The increase in core CPI is attributed to effective implementation of consumption-boosting policies and gradual release of consumption potential, alongside the establishment of a unified domestic market [3] - Prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, with household appliances seeing a 2.8% increase, reflecting a positive impact on CPI [3] - Service prices also experienced a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with notable rises in household and educational services, contributing to the overall CPI growth [3][4] Group 3 - Overall, the CPI in July remained stable, with positive changes continuing to emerge, although the market still faces a situation of strong supply and weak demand [4] - Future policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and furthering the construction of a unified national market are expected to continue yielding positive effects on price levels [4]

Core Insights - The international environment in July was complex and severe, with ongoing trade protectionism and unilateralism impacting the economy [1] - Extreme weather conditions, such as high temperatures and floods in certain regions, caused short-term shocks to economic operations [1] - In response to these challenges, various regions and departments actively implemented more proactive macro policies and advanced the construction of a unified domestic market [1] - Production demand continued to grow, employment and prices remained generally stable, and new growth drivers expanded, leading to a steady and progressive economic operation [1]