经济日报记者 熊丽 应变克难，勇开新局，中国经济巨轮顶压前行的轨迹中，也记录着奋斗的汗水与荣光。 过去的一年，是很不平凡的一年。面对复杂多变的国际国内形势，以习近平同志为核心的党中央团 结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏，推动党和国家事业取得新进展新成效。 过去的一年，是向新向优的一年。搏击风浪中，中国经济不仅夯实了"稳"的基础，还拓展了"进"的 步伐、锤炼了"韧"的筋骨，为"十四五"画上圆满句号，为"十五五"开局打下坚实基础。 "稳"的格局巩固 2025年，世界经贸秩序遭受重创，国内新旧动能转换存在阵痛，经济平稳运行面临的风险挑战增 多。我国坚定不移办好自己的事，有力有效实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市 场、稳预期，全年经济社会发展主要目标任务顺利完成。 看总量，我国国内生产总值（GDP）迈上140万亿元新台阶。粮食产量连续两年站稳1.4万亿斤台 阶，制造业增加值连续16年稳居世界首位，货物进出口总值超过45万亿元，外汇储备余额超过3.3万亿 美元。"对于我国这样超大体量的经济体而言，在各种风险挑战交织的背景下，能够实现这样的稳定发 展很不容易。"国家统计局局长康义说。 过去5年， ...

应变克难，勇开新局，中国经济巨轮顶压前行的轨迹中，也记录着奋斗的汗水与荣光。 过去的一年，是很不平凡的一年。面对复杂多变的国际国内形势，以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带 领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏，推动党和国家事业取得新进展新成效。 看质量，我国加快推进新旧动能转换，民生保障扎实有力，经济发展"含金量""含绿量"同步提升。 绿色转型塑造新优势。初步测算，2025年我国单位GDP能耗降幅超5%；新型储能装机突破1亿千瓦，稳 居世界首位；新能源汽车产量首次突破1600万辆，产销量连续11年保持全球第一。 改革开放迈出新步伐。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，综合整治"内卷式"竞争，统一大市场对集聚资 源、推动增长、激励创新、扩大内需、促进竞争的作用日益增强，2025年社会物流总费用与GDP的比率 降至历史最低水平。我国更大力度吸引和利用外资，全年新设外资企业7万余家。海南自贸港启动全岛 封关运作，高水平对外开放掀开新篇章。 民生改善取得新成效。"十四五"时期，我国每年城镇新增就业稳定在1200万人以上，就业形势总体稳 定，全国居民人均可支配收入年均实际增长5.4%，与经济增长同步。 过去的一年，是向新向优的一 ...

区域宏观经济观察及信用债分析系列专题之二 地方经济发展有什么抓手 glmszqdatemark [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 徐亮 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110037 | | | 邮箱： | xliang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 梁克淳 | | 执业证书： S0590525110038 | | | 邮箱： | liangkechun@glms.com.cn | 2026 年 02 月 24 日 国家部委为今年地方经济发展提供"充足弹药"：央行、财政部、发改委持续在政 策端发力、在资金端提供协同支持，目标就是为了更好激励地方政府积极落实与 "投资于物、投资于人"相关的项目建设，并秉持"因地制宜"原则而做好有效 投资；鼓励有较好就业基础、技术实力、出口优势的各类企业持续经营、扩大规 模，带动重点产业链及上下游产业发展，形成"产业集群"而保证当地居民连续 就业与区域经济稳健发展。与此同时，发改委正在研究制定"2026-2030 年扩大 内需战略实施方案"与"研究设立国家级并购基金"，或将利于地方政府使用地方 产业基金来布局更多新质生产力， ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 economic growth targets set by various provinces in China reflect a pragmatic approach, focusing on quality and efficiency rather than just speed, with a differentiated development strategy across regions [1][2][5]. Economic Growth Targets - Most provinces set their GDP growth targets around 5% or higher, with only a few like Liaoning, Yunnan, Tianjin, and Qinghai targeting around 4.5% [2][21]. - Jiangxi is the only province to raise its growth target from 5% to a range of 5% to 5.5%, indicating confidence in its economic potential despite a general trend of cautious target-setting among other provinces [2][5][21]. Economic Performance and Foundations - Jiangxi's GDP reached 36,020 billion yuan in 2025, growing by 5.2%, marking the highest growth rate in four years and exceeding its annual target [2][3][5]. - The province's robust performance in 2025 provides a solid foundation for its ambitious growth target for 2026 [2][5]. Resource and Industrial Transformation - Jiangxi is leveraging its rich natural resources, such as tungsten and rare earths, to transition from raw material sales to high-end manufacturing, with its non-ferrous metals industry revenue surpassing 1 trillion yuan for the first time in 2025 [3][13]. - The province has developed significant industrial clusters, including advanced manufacturing in rare earth materials and lithium battery production, contributing to its competitive edge [3][4][13]. Manufacturing and Industrial Growth - In 2025, Jiangxi's industrial output value increased by approximately 7.5%, reaching 11.9 trillion yuan, ranking 13th nationally [4][13]. - The province's high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors saw substantial growth, with increases of 12% and 11.8% respectively [4][13]. Consumer Market Dynamics - Jiangxi's retail sales reached 13,422.7 billion yuan in 2025, growing by 4.7%, which is above the national average, with rural consumption growing significantly [4][5][13]. - The contribution of consumption to economic growth is estimated to be around 55%, highlighting the importance of consumer spending in driving the economy [4][5]. Strategic Development Path - Jiangxi plans to implement the "1269" action plan, aiming to cultivate over three provincial-level advanced manufacturing clusters and increase the proportion of digital economy core industries to about 9.5% of GDP [5][14]. - The province is focusing on future industries such as new materials, brain-computer interfaces, and humanoid robots, indicating a strategic shift towards innovation-driven growth [5][14].

Core Insights - The economic ranking reveals that Shanghai, with a GDP of 5.6 trillion, ranks only 9th nationally, while Beijing surpasses the 5 trillion mark but remains outside the top ten [1][3] - The leading province, Guangdong, has a significant economic advantage, with a GDP of 14 trillion, driven by diverse industries and population growth [9][11] Economic Rankings - The rankings reflect provincial capacity rather than city strength, indicating that cities like Shanghai and Beijing are limited by their geographical boundaries [5][7] - The rankings are not suitable for assessing city strength, as they primarily show who can maximize provincial capacity rather than who leads in economic performance [7][25] Guangdong's Economic Structure - Guangdong's economic strength is attributed to a balanced development across population, industry, and trade, making it resilient to fluctuations in any single sector [9][11] - The province has been addressing internal imbalances, leading to rapid income growth in rural areas and a steady influx of labor into cities [9][11] Mid-tier Provinces - Mid-tier provinces like Shandong, Zhejiang, and Sichuan are showing significant growth, supported by diverse industries that provide stability against external pressures [13][15] - These provinces are transitioning to high-tech manufacturing and digital industries, indicating a structural shift that may not immediately reflect in rankings but will influence future growth [17][19] Growth Dynamics - Some provinces with lower total GDP are experiencing faster growth, indicating a shift in economic dynamics where growth is becoming more distributed across regions [19][23] - The gap between the top and bottom provinces is widening, with some regions still struggling to reach the trillion mark while others are advancing rapidly [21][25] Conclusion - The GDP rankings serve to highlight regional disparities and the different paths taken by provinces, with Guangdong's robust structure and the strategic shifts of Beijing and Shanghai illustrating varied economic strategies [25][27]

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China is projected to see significant growth by 2025, with a total social logistics volume of 368.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1] Group 1: Logistics Volume Breakdown - Agricultural product logistics is expected to reach 5.5 trillion yuan, growing by 3.9% year-on-year [1] - Industrial product logistics will account for 324.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, contributing 82% to the overall logistics growth [4] - Import logistics is projected at 18.5 trillion yuan, with a modest growth of 0.5% [1] - Recyclable resources logistics is anticipated to grow by 13.2%, indicating a strong demand for low-carbon and green products [4] - Logistics for units and residential goods is expected to reach 14.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1] Group 2: Industrial Growth Drivers - The demand for logistics in the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors is becoming a core growth driver, with industrial robot logistics expected to grow by 28% and new energy vehicle logistics by 25.1% [4] - The logistics demand for green products such as wind turbines, lithium carbonate, and carbon fiber is projected to grow by over 40% [4] - The development of new industries is leading to higher product value and more refined transportation requirements, pushing logistics companies to enhance their service capabilities [4] Group 3: Import and Cost Trends - Import logistics is showing signs of recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5% and a peak monthly growth of 8.5% in December [5] - The total logistics cost for 2025 is projected at 19.5 trillion yuan, with the logistics cost-to-GDP ratio decreasing to 13.9%, down by 0.2 percentage points [5] - Transportation costs remain stable at 7.6% of GDP, while storage costs have decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6% of GDP [5] Group 4: Future Directions - The logistics sector is encouraged to implement the "Action Plan for Effectively Reducing Logistics Costs" to enhance infrastructure and improve service quality [6] - There is a focus on innovation to drive efficiency and reduce costs, promoting high-quality development in logistics and macroeconomic coordination [6]

"十五五"时期，我国发展处于战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时期。面对发展环境的深刻复杂变化， 要坚定信心，坚定不移办好自己的事，以高质量发展的确定性应对各种不确定性。 产业体系完备，这是坚强的物质基础。实体经济关系国家安全、关系国计民生、关系国际竞争力，自主可控、稳定畅通的 产业链供应链是中国经济应对外部冲击的根基所在。从规模看，我国产业体系门类齐全、规模庞大，220多种主要工业产 品产量位居世界第一，制造业规模有望连续16年居全球首位。从结构看，传统产业高端化、智能化、绿色化、融合化转型 蹄疾步稳，新兴产业和未来产业加快发展壮大，2025年，规模以上装备制造业、高技术制造业增加值占规模以上工业增加 值的比重分别提高至36.8%、17.1%。"实"的基础，正是中国经济在全球风云变幻中稳健前行的底气所在。 创新生态活跃，这是蓬勃的内生动力。创新是引领发展的第一动力，也是引领经济实现跃升的关键所在。2025年，我国研 发经费投入强度达2.8%，基础研究经费占比达7.08%，"十四五"时期全社会研发经费投入年均增长10%。2024年，"三 新"经济、专利密集型产业增加值占GDP比重分别提升到18.0 ...

翻开"总体规模有望连续16年位居全球第一"的辉煌一页，踏着韧性十足、潜力涌动、活力迸发的步伐， 中国制造昂首迈入"十五五"开局之年。这一年，承前启后与深度转型并进，传统制造模式调整与新质生 产力培育将深度交融，产业发展的战略机遇和风险挑战相伴相生；这一年，稳住基本盘与新旧动能转换 同行，传统产业焕新与新兴产业壮大将同向发力，高质量发展的坚实根基和长远动能不断筑牢。 "十五五"规划建议将"建设现代化产业体系，巩固壮大实体经济根基"摆在战略任务的首位。2026年，中 国制造将锚定"稳"的目标，发挥经济发展"压舱石"作用；迈出"进"的步伐，推动产业结构优化升级；激 发"新"的动能，让科技创新与产业创新同频共振；释放"活"的潜力，引导各类经营主体主动突破。破困 局，开新局，继续彰显中国智造的磅礴伟力。 稳：夯实实体根基 中国制造量的合理增长，能稳固经济发展底盘，夯实实体经济根基，为"十五五"开局蓄势赋能，是支撑 产业质的有效提升的基础和根本，更是我们奋进路上的底气与力量。 中国制造质的有效提升，能增强产业核心竞争力，塑造高质量发展优势。这既是破解产业同质化、摆脱 低端路径依赖的务实举措，也是推动中国制造向价值链高端攀 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's manufacturing sector is poised for significant growth and transformation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on stabilizing the economy, advancing industrial upgrades, and fostering innovation to enhance competitiveness and sustainability [1][15]. Group 1: Stability - The reasonable growth of China's manufacturing output is essential for solidifying the economic foundation and supporting quality improvements in the industry [2]. - Key industrial provinces play a crucial role in stabilizing economic growth, contributing 80% of the industrial output value [2]. - The focus on stabilizing key industries, such as automotive and electronics, is vital for maintaining industrial economic growth [2][3]. - The government plans to implement new growth strategies for ten key industries to ensure long-term stability in the industrial economy [2]. Group 2: Progress - The effective enhancement of quality in China's manufacturing will strengthen core competitiveness and promote high-quality development [5]. - The growth rates for major manufacturing sectors, such as equipment and high-tech manufacturing, are projected to exceed the overall industrial growth rate by significant margins [5]. - The focus on high-end manufacturing and technological innovation will drive the industry towards higher value chains [6]. - The digital transformation of manufacturing is emphasized as a key strategy for improving quality and efficiency [6][7]. Group 3: New Growth Drivers - The cultivation of new quality productivity is essential for restructuring and revitalizing the manufacturing sector [9]. - Emerging industries, characterized by high technology and value, are seen as critical for driving economic growth and transitioning to sustainable development [9][10]. - Traditional industries will undergo significant upgrades, leveraging new technologies to support the growth of emerging sectors [10]. - Future industries will be strategically developed to ensure early positioning in high-potential areas such as quantum technology and artificial intelligence [11]. Group 4: Innovation - Technological innovation is identified as a core element for driving new productivity and enhancing industrial vitality [12]. - The government aims to increase high-quality technological supply by focusing on key industry needs and supporting major technological projects [13]. - Enterprises are recognized as the main drivers of R&D investment, with government policies aimed at further stimulating innovation [13][14]. - A collaborative innovation ecosystem will be established to facilitate the integration of various innovation resources into the manufacturing sector [14].

近期，2025年中国经济年报出炉，经济总量突破140万亿元大关，比上年增长5%，国民经济 顶住多重压力挑战，圆满完成主要预期目标，发展向新向优。对此，本刊记者对国家统计局 新闻发言人进行了专访，分析2025年经济运行情况，解读扩大消费、改善民生等热点问题， 展望我国经济发展态势。 记者：2025年我国圆满完成了经济社会发展主要目标任务，首先想请您谈谈对全年经济运行情况的看 法。 新闻发言人：回看2025年，我感受最深的一点是，我国经济发展实现预期目标很不容易，也很不平凡。 这一年，外部环境急剧变化，国内周期性结构性矛盾交织，经济平稳运行面临的风险挑战增多。面对国 内外形势深刻复杂变化，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，我国经济顶住多重压力向新向优 稳步发展，交出了鼓舞人心的亮丽答卷。总体来看，有三个特点尤为鲜明。 第一，主要预期目标圆满实现。2025年，我国始终保持战略定力，坚定不移办好自己的事，有力有效实 施更加积极有为的宏观政策，在风浪中稳住了发展底盘，锤炼了顶风抗雨的能力，发展主要预期目标圆 满实现。国内生产总值（GDP）迈上140万亿元新台阶，5%的增速在全球主要经济体中继续保持前列。 城镇调查 ...