Core Viewpoint - The strategic move by China Mineral Resources Group to halt the purchase of iron ore priced in USD from BHP has sent shockwaves through the global iron ore market, significantly impacting Australia's economy and the iron ore trade dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Market Impact - Following the announcement, BHP's stock price plummeted by 3.4%, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding 12 billion AUD (approximately 60 billion RMB) [3]. - Australia's Treasury estimates that if the supply halt continues until 2026, iron ore export revenues could decline by 11 billion AUD, potentially dragging down the national GDP growth by 0.3 to 0.8 percentage points [7]. Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - China, holding a 75% market share in global seaborne iron ore, has historically lacked pricing power despite being the largest buyer [5]. - In 2024, BHP generated a staggering profit of 224 billion RMB from the Chinese market, averaging 620 million RMB in daily revenue, highlighting the significant profit margin disparity [5]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - China's ability to assertively halt USD-denominated transactions is supported by its diversified supply network, including the Simandou project in Guinea, which is expected to produce 60 million tons annually starting in late 2025 [9]. - China has also signed a long-term procurement agreement with Vale for 50 million tons annually, with imports from Brazil rising to 27.8% in 2024 [9]. Group 4: Currency and Trade Relations - The directive to pause USD transactions, while allowing RMB-denominated trades, reflects a strategic intent to promote the internationalization of the RMB, aiming to establish a closed-loop settlement system in the iron ore market [11]. - The proportion of RMB settlements in Australia's iron ore exports reached 60% in 2024, indicating a shift towards local currency transactions [11]. Group 5: Industry Challenges - The steel industry in China has been under pressure from high iron ore prices, with iron ore accounting for 54% of the cost of iron production in the first half of 2024, leading to an average profit margin of only 1.1% for major steel companies [13]. - The establishment of the "China Mineral National Chain" platform aims to eliminate intermediaries and curb speculation, while the construction of a national iron ore spot trading center will enhance price transparency [13].

今儿菜市场买菜，卖豆腐的张姨都在念叨："听说黄金又破4000美元啦？"您看，这金价涨到天上，连街坊邻居都操心起国家的"钱袋子"了。今儿咱就唠唠刚 出炉的外储数据——3.33万亿美金，连续两个月站在历史高位，顺带聊聊央行悄悄囤了11个月的黄金。 先说这外储，3.3万亿是什么概念？打个比方，就像咱们家存折里趴着3.3万亿的"应急钱"，从2015年到现在，整整十年才又摸回这个数。不过帮主跑财经这 些年知道，外储可不是单纯的"钱生钱"。9月这165亿的涨幅，说白了是全球股市、美债这些"家里的资产"跟着美联储降息涨了估值。但您注意看，美元指数 基本没动，说明咱们没跟着美元大起大落，稳稳把住了节奏。 最有意思的是黄金。央行偷偷买了11个月，现在兜里揣着2303吨黄金，相当于把大半个鸟巢填满黄金砖。但9月只加了4万盎司，是近一年最少的。为啥？您 想啊，金价都飙到4000美元了，再大举买入就成"高位接盘"。但央行聪明啊，小步慢跑——既告诉全球"咱在优化储备结构"，又不被短期价格牵着走。这就 像咱们散户买基金，跌了分批加仓，涨了慢慢收着，典型的中长线思维。 帮主翻了翻历史，2015年外储跌破3万亿时，市场慌得不行，现在稳稳站在 ...

Core Viewpoint - China is attracting friendly nations to purchase gold and store it within its borders through the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which could significantly alter the global monetary system [1][4]. Group 1: Global Monetary System Changes - The control of gold reserves is increasingly seen as equivalent to having a say in global monetary policy, a shift from the historical dominance of the US dollar [4]. - The Bretton Woods system established the dollar's link to gold, making it the core of global currency, but recent trends show a growing skepticism towards the US dollar [4][6]. - The "de-dollarization" movement is gaining momentum, with gold's share in global foreign exchange reserves rising to 20%, surpassing the euro and second only to the dollar [6]. Group 2: China's Strategic Moves - China's initiative to allow foreign central banks to store gold is a well-planned strategy aimed at enhancing trade and reducing reliance on the dollar [8]. - The ability to trade directly in gold using the Chinese yuan can facilitate oil purchases without needing to convert to dollars, mitigating risks associated with dollar dependency [9]. - The integration of the yuan into the official foreign exchange reserves of ASEAN countries and the establishment of a cross-border payment system (CIPS) are steps towards promoting the internationalization of the yuan [10]. Group 3: Future Implications - If gold can be freely exchanged, it would enhance the yuan's role in global trade, signaling a shift towards a new financial order where the dollar is not the sole option [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by BHP Group to conduct iron ore transactions with Chinese buyers using RMB signifies a major shift in international financial dynamics, challenging the dominance of the US dollar and reflecting changing global trade relationships [1][4]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Australia has seen over 1.2 trillion RMB in iron ore trade with China over the past seven years, with significant daily shipments [3]. - The bargaining power of Chinese buyers has increased, as China is now the largest steel producer and has developed new mining operations in Brazil and Guinea [3][4]. Group 2: Currency Trends - The internationalization of the RMB is accelerating, with a 37% increase in cross-border trade settlements in RMB last year, and various countries beginning to accept RMB for trade [6]. - The credibility of the US dollar is declining, with the US national debt exceeding 31 trillion USD and significant currency exchange losses impacting Australian mining companies [6][8]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The move by Australian companies to use RMB for transactions is a strategic decision to mitigate currency risk and invest in China's clean energy projects, aligning with China's industrial upgrades [8]. - This shift indicates a broader transformation in global economic structures, as emerging economies redefine traditional financial orders, reminiscent of the transition from the pound to the dollar [10].

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing trend of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) purchasing gold despite rising international gold prices, indicating a strategic move to bolster China's gold reserves and diversify its foreign exchange holdings [1][3]. Group 1: Central Bank's Gold Purchases - As of September, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,387 billion, with a 0.5% increase from August, and the PBOC purchased 40,000 ounces of gold, marking 11 consecutive months of gold accumulation [3][5]. - The current gold holdings represent only about 7% of China's foreign exchange reserves, significantly lower than the global average of 15% and some European countries' holdings, which can be as high as 50% [5]. Group 2: Reasons for Gold Accumulation - The primary reason for the PBOC's gold purchases is China's relative lack of gold reserves compared to its economic size, which necessitates increasing gold holdings to stabilize its foreign exchange reserves [3][5]. - The complex international landscape, including trade tensions and sanctions, has led to a declining trust in the US dollar, prompting a shift towards gold as a more stable asset [6][7]. - Gold serves as a hedge against potential currency risks and can act as a "last resort" payment method during economic downturns, making it a crucial asset for national financial security [9]. Group 3: Implications for Renminbi Internationalization - The article posits that for the Renminbi to gain international acceptance, it needs to be backed by gold, similar to the Bretton Woods system where the dollar was convertible to gold [12]. - The PBOC's strategy to increase gold reserves is seen as essential for enhancing the Renminbi's global influence and supporting its internationalization efforts [10][12]. Group 4: Concerns Over US Economic Stability - The article highlights concerns regarding the US government's financial instability, including a significant debt burden and recent government shutdowns, which have heightened global risk aversion [13][15]. - The PBOC's gold purchases are viewed as a proactive measure to secure China's economic stability in light of potential declines in US dollar dominance [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent surge in gold prices, with spot gold breaking the $3980 mark and New York futures reaching $4000 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][4][7]. Gold Price Trends - As of October 7, spot gold reached $3982.740, marking a 0.57% increase, while New York futures rose by 0.61% [1][2]. - The price of gold jewelry also increased, with prices for gold ornaments from various brands rising to approximately 1155-1157 RMB per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 16 RMB [7]. Central Bank Gold Reserves - The central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month, with September's reserves reported at 74.06 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces from the previous month [2][4]. - The pace of gold accumulation by the central bank has slowed, with September's increase being the lowest since November 2024, indicating a strategic balance between expanding reserves and controlling costs [4][5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, with Goldman Sachs projecting a price of $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, up from a previous estimate of $4300 [6][10]. - UBS has also expressed a bullish outlook, forecasting gold prices to reach $4200 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by factors such as a weaker dollar and increased central bank purchases [10]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests that gold serves as a crucial asset for diversification in international reserves, with a recommendation for investors to maintain a 5-10% allocation in gold within their portfolios for risk management [10].

国家外汇管理局10月7日公布的数据显示，截至2025年9月末，我国外汇储备规模为33386.58亿美元，较8月 末的33221.54亿美元增加165.04亿美元。 这是我国外汇储备连续两个月增加，央行则连续11个月增持黄金。 5月3日，江苏省南通市通州区金新街道一大型商场内，顾客选购黄金饰品。新华社发 黄金增持量为何降至"新低"？ 外汇储备为何持续增长？ 国家外汇管理局表示，2025年9月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策及预期等因素影响，美元指数 小幅震荡，全球金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上 升。 "9月末外储规模出现一定幅度上升，主要受全球金融资产价格上涨带动。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青 在接受风口财经记者采访时表示，受美联储重启降息等带动，9月全球主要股指普遍上行，美债收益率走 低，美债价格上扬。这些都会带动我国外储投资的金融资产估值增加。 王青认为，考虑到当前外储规模已处于3.3万亿美元以上的偏高水平，且当月央行增持黄金规模有限，不排 除实施一定规模外汇净卖出的可能，这能够将外储规模控制在适度水平区间。 数据显示，今年前三季度，中国外汇储备累计增加了 ...

10月7日，国家外汇管理局披露，截至2025年9月末，我国外汇储备规模为33387亿美元，较8月末上升165亿美元，升幅为 0.5%。 对此，民生银行首席经济学家温彬解读，9月份，受就业数据疲软影响，美联储如期降息25个基点，联邦基金利率目标区间下 调至4.00%~4.25%，全球资产价格整体上涨，美元则低位震荡。受资产价格变化与汇率波动综合影响，9月末外储环比上涨165 亿美元。 进一步看，9月末外汇储备已创2015年12月以来最高，较上年末也大幅增加1363亿美元(约合人民币9700亿元)。 此外，最新数据显示，中国9月末黄金储备报7406万盎司(约2303.523吨)，环比增加4万盎司(约1.24吨)，为连续第11个月增持黄 金。 今年以来，黄金价格暴涨，截至发稿，纽约黄金期货报3985.97美元/盎司，盘中一度突破4000美元/盎司，年内涨幅已达50%。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，近期央行继续增持黄金，主要原因是特朗普政府上台后，全球政治、经济形势出现新变 化，国际金价有可能在相当长一段时间内易涨难跌。这意味着从控制成本角度出发暂停增持黄金的必要性下降，而从优化国际 储备结构角度增持黄金的需求上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing confrontation between China and Australia's BHP over iron ore procurement is not merely a commercial negotiation but a strategic battle aimed at redefining the long-standing pricing power in the global iron ore market [3][5][30] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global iron ore supply is predominantly controlled by three major companies: BHP, Rio Tinto, and Vale, which together account for 61% of global seaborne exports [5][9] - China, as the largest buyer, has hundreds of steel companies acting independently, leading to a fragmented purchasing power that disadvantages them in negotiations [7][9] - It is estimated that this pricing imbalance could cost China over a thousand billion dollars in additional expenses for importing Australian iron ore this year [7] Group 2: Strategic Moves by China - In 2022, China established the China Mineral Resources Group (CMSG) to consolidate procurement from state-owned steel companies, transforming the negotiation dynamics from many small buyers to a single large buyer [9][12] - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, with over 2 billion tons of proven reserves and an average grade of 65%, is seen as a critical asset for China to enhance its bargaining power [12][14] - China has invested over 30 billion dollars in the Simandou project, which is expected to produce 12 million tons annually, representing about 10% of China's total iron ore imports [14][18] Group 3: Recent Developments - A recent fatal accident at the Simandou site has led to a suspension of operations, which could weaken China's negotiating position against BHP [16][18] - BHP's strong stance is under pressure as 70% of its iron ore exports are dependent on the Chinese market, and attempts to find alternative markets have been largely unsuccessful [20][22] Group 4: Currency and Geopolitical Implications - China's demands include establishing a new pricing mechanism closer to the spot market and using the renminbi for transactions, challenging the long-standing dominance of the US dollar in international commodity markets [26][28] - The internal divisions among Australian mining companies, with some like FMG agreeing to use renminbi for transactions, indicate a shift in alliances that could further weaken BHP's position [22][24] - The broader implications of this struggle extend beyond commercial interests to geopolitical dynamics, as the US has expressed concern over the potential shift in currency usage for strategic commodities [26][30]

4000美元！黄金在无声中呐喊的，不只是避险焦虑，更是对全球货币秩序暗流涌动的本能回应。 2025年10月7日上午，纽约期金主力合约盘中罕见飙升，最高触及每盎司4000美元，再创历史新高；年内涨幅逾50%。黄金这一破位跃升，并非由地缘冲 突或通胀预期点燃，而是在美联储重启降息、美元指数显著走弱的大背景下，包括各国央行连续增持黄金储备，私人部门积极配置黄金资产，都在推动黄 金走出独立行情。资本市场以黄金之名，向美元信用投下的一票"沉默公投"。 2025年10月7日上午，纽约期金主力合约盘中罕见飙升，最高触及每盎司4000美元，再创历史新高；年内涨幅逾50%。 作者：欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 这一历史性时刻，恰逢美国政府因预算僵局再度陷入"技术性停摆"、全球经济前景晃动不定，市场风险偏好和避险本能交织回荡。 美联储降息后，美元指数走弱，年内跌幅近10%，而人民币汇率稳中向好，年内涨幅为2.46%；这可能是系统性变量的拐点。它意味着，世界在寻找美元 之外的相关资产锚。 在此背景下，人民币的"三角功能"可能在跃迁：从"结算货币"渐趋进阶至"投资货币"，并逐步试探"储备货币"的边界。 国际货币基金数据显示，2025年一 ...