（原标题：巴西黑天鹅事件！股市大跌 货币重挫约2.5%） 大家周末好，简单关注一则巴西发生的黑天鹅事件，直接股汇双杀。 有分析师表示："市场原本希望整个右翼能在弗雷塔斯身后实现大团结。但现在右翼反而是分裂了。现 在只是把之前那股过度乐观情绪修正一下。离大选还有很久，各种新闻标题都会继续带来巨大的波 动。" 自上月末以来，谁来接班右翼的讨论愈发受到关注——当时博索纳罗因为策划政变、推翻其2022年大选 失利结果而开始服27年刑期。中间派盟友和投资者原本把这视为一个转折点，认为会迫使这位仍坚称自 己明年还会参选的前总统"交班"。很多人都把目光投向弗雷塔斯，视其为右翼击败卢拉的最佳希望。 虽然圣保罗州长弗雷塔斯在不同的投资者场合上讲话时，颇有"候选人"的味道，但他迄今仍坚持称自己 打算竞选连任州长。他在潜在总统参选问题上一直极为谨慎，并多次释放信号：只有在博索纳罗明确支 持的情况下，他才可能出马。 有分析师表示："市场之前预期弗雷塔斯会成为博索纳罗钦点的候选人，而市场的技术面仓位在一定程 度上也反映了这种乐观情绪。相比之下，弗拉维奥对阵卢拉的竞争力更弱，而且在经济政策预期方面也 更差，这对巴西资产都是负面因素。" ...

弗拉维奥参议员办公室对外证实，他将作为自由党的候选人挑战现任总统卢拉。 此前，受新兴市场整体上涨行情以及市场对弗雷塔斯可能参选的期待支撑，巴西资产今年表现不错。尽 管左翼现任总统卢拉预计将竞选第四个任期，而且在早期民调中领先，但交易员越来越认为，如果弗雷 塔斯出马，将是右翼阵营击败现任总统的最佳机会。 【导读】巴西的黑天鹅事件 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家周末好，简单关注一则巴西发生的黑天鹅事件， 直接股汇双杀。 巴西股市周五大跌，股市创下自2021年以来最糟糕的一天，货币也重挫约 2.5%。原因是巴西前总统博 索纳罗公开支持自己的一个儿子，作为右翼阵营在明年10月总统选举中的候选人。 在当地媒体Metropoles披露这一消息后，巴西货币雷亚尔就开始走弱。随后，巴西前总统长子、参议员 弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在X平台上确认了其父亲的背书，雷亚尔跌势加速。巴西Ibovespa股指收跌4.3%。与 此同时，一些作为货币政策预期风向标的利率互换合约收益率狂飙逾50个基点，反映出投资者大举撤销 此前"博索纳罗会支持圣保罗州长塔尔西济奥·德·弗雷塔斯参选"的押注。 弗拉维奥在X平台上写道："怀着极大的责任，我确认巴西最伟大的 ...

【导读】巴西的黑天鹅事件 大家周末好，简单关注一则巴西发生的黑天鹅事件，直接股汇双杀。 巴西股市周五大跌，股市创下自2021年以来最糟糕的一天，货币也重挫约 2.5%。原因是巴西前总统博索纳罗公开支持自己的一个儿子，作为右翼阵营 在明年10月总统选举中的候选人。 在当地媒体Metropoles披露这一消息后，巴西货币雷亚尔就开始走弱。随后，巴西前总统长子、参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在X平台上确认了其父亲的背 书，雷亚尔跌势加速。巴西Ibovespa股指收跌4.3%。与此同时，一些作为货币政策预期风向标的利率互换合约收益率狂飙逾50个基点，反映出投资者 大举撤销此前"博索纳罗会支持圣保罗州长塔尔西济奥·德·弗雷塔斯参选"的押注。 弗拉维奥在X平台上写道："怀着极大的责任，我确认巴西最伟大的政治与道德领袖雅伊尔·梅西亚斯·博索纳罗作出的决定——他将继续我们国家项目的 使命托付给我。" 弗拉维奥参议员办公室对外证实，他将作为自由党的候选人挑战现任总统卢拉。 此前，受新兴市场整体上涨行情以及市场对弗雷塔斯可能参选的期待支撑，巴西资产今年表现不错。尽管左翼现任总统卢拉预计将竞选第四个任期， 而且在早期民调中领先，但交易员 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the approval process for New Zealand's New Lite Dairy Co., a subsidiary of Bright Dairy, to engage in hedging activities to mitigate foreign exchange and interest rate risks associated with its operations [3][4][5]. Group 1: Transaction Overview - New Lite's main business includes the production and sale of dairy products, with significant revenue from foreign currency sales and some raw material imports, exposing it to foreign exchange risks [3][4]. - The company plans to use forward foreign exchange contracts and interest rate swaps to hedge against these risks [3][4]. - The estimated peak value for forward foreign exchange contracts in 2026 is NZD 1.5 billion, and for interest rate swaps, it is NZD 100 million [4]. Group 2: Approval Process - The proposal has been approved by the Audit Committee and the Board of Directors, pending approval from the shareholders' meeting [2][7]. - The Audit Committee unanimously approved the proposal with three votes in favor and no opposition [7]. Group 3: Risk Analysis and Control Measures - The hedging activities are aimed at risk mitigation and will not involve speculative trading [9]. - Risks identified include market risk, operational risk, and the risk of default by financial institutions [9]. - The company has established a management system for hedging activities, ensuring compliance with legal and regulatory requirements [10][11]. Group 4: Financial Impact and Accounting Treatment - The hedging activities will be conducted in accordance with relevant accounting standards, ensuring proper financial reporting [15].

Core Viewpoint - The optimization of the "Swap Connect" mechanism aims to enhance market vitality and better meet the demand of foreign investors for managing RMB interest rate risks [1][2]. Group 1: Mechanism Optimization - The establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for "Swap Connect" quote providers and the expansion of the quote provider team will lead to more diversified financial institutions offering competitive quotes, improving pricing efficiency and fairness [1]. - The daily net limit will be raised to 45 billion RMB starting from October 13, 2025, directly addressing the growing demand from foreign investors for RMB interest rate risk hedging [1][2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange stated that the increase in the daily net limit not only expands the participation space for foreign investors in the RMB interest rate swap market but also enhances market liquidity and continues to promote the internationalization of China's domestic financial market [2]. - Since its launch on May 15, 2023, "Swap Connect" has become an important channel for foreign institutional investors to manage RMB interest rate risks, with over 15 countries and regions participating and completing more than 15,000 transactions totaling a nominal principal of 8.15 trillion RMB by the end of August 2025 [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There is significant potential for "Swap Connect" to expand its product range, continuously optimize mechanisms and processes, and strengthen risk prevention and regulatory cooperation in the future [3].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is witnessing a significant shift in foreign investment sentiment towards Chinese assets, moving from a stance of avoidance to one of necessity, driven by China's policy stability and technological advancements [1][3] Group 1: Investment Trends - HKEX's CEO highlighted that global diversification needs and the attractiveness of Chinese assets are leading foreign capital to transition from "cannot invest" to "cannot miss investing" in China [1][3] - In the first half of the year, HKEX reported a new stock financing amount of HKD 1,094 billion, reclaiming the top position among global exchanges, with a daily average trading volume of HKD 2,402 billion, a year-on-year increase of 118% [2] - Foreign capital is significantly returning to the Hong Kong market, with foreign subscriptions accounting for 70-80% of certain IPOs, indicating a robust demand from long-term investors from regions such as Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The shift in foreign investment logic is attributed to geopolitical tensions and a reassessment of asset allocation strategies, leading to a search for new investment opportunities in Hong Kong's leading and high-potential companies [2][3] - The average daily trading volume of Hong Kong stocks is projected to rise from approximately HKD 1,000 billion in 2023 to HKD 1,300 billion in 2024, further increasing to HKD 2,402 billion in the first half of 2025, with foreign trading volume accounting for about 70% [3] Group 3: Institutional Innovation - HKEX is committed to optimizing its institutional framework to meet diverse financing needs, with recent innovations such as the introduction of Chapter 18A and 18C rules allowing biotech and specialized technology companies to list without prior revenue [4][5] - The successful implementation of these rules has led to increased market recognition and a growing number of applications from companies seeking to list under these provisions [5] Group 4: Market Connectivity - The rise in IPO activity is complemented by a positive interaction with the A-share market, with "A+H" listings creating a beneficial cycle between the two markets [6] - HKEX aims to enhance its product offerings in fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodities to better compete globally, addressing current gaps in its market [6][7] - Future plans include expanding the range of products available through the Stock Connect program, including ETFs and bonds, to facilitate greater access for international investors [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is witnessing a significant shift in foreign investment sentiment towards Chinese assets, moving from a stance of avoidance to one of necessity, driven by China's policy stability and technological advancements [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Foreign capital is increasingly viewing Chinese assets as essential, with a notable change in investment logic from "Anything But China" to "Buy China" [3]. - In the first half of the year, HKEX reported a new stock financing amount of HKD 1,094 billion, reclaiming the top position among global exchanges [2]. - The average daily trading volume in the securities market reached HKD 2,402 billion, a year-on-year increase of 118% [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is robust, with over 200 companies currently processing IPO applications, nearly half of which are technology firms [2]. - A significant highlight on the demand side is the substantial return of foreign capital, with foreign investors participating in 70-80% of certain IPOs [2][3]. - The shift in global asset allocation strategies, influenced by geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism, is prompting investors to diversify away from USD assets towards Hong Kong stocks [2][3]. Group 3: Institutional Innovation - HKEX is committed to optimizing its institutional framework to meet diverse financing needs, exemplified by the introduction of the 18A and 18C listing rules, which allow biotech and specialized technology companies to go public [5]. - The 18C rule has already seen three companies listed and over ten applications submitted, indicating growing market acceptance [5]. Group 4: Market Connectivity - The "A+H" listing model has created a positive feedback loop, with average trading volume for "A+H" companies in A-shares increasing by approximately 15% this year [6]. - HKEX aims to enhance its product offerings in fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodities to better compete with global markets [6]. - Future plans include expanding the range of products available through the Stock Connect, including ETFs and bonds, to facilitate greater market integration [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is witnessing a significant shift in foreign investment sentiment towards Chinese assets, driven by the increasing attractiveness of these assets and the demand for diversified global capital allocation [1][2][3] Group 1: Investment Trends - Foreign capital is transitioning from a passive to an active approach in investing in Chinese assets, with a notable increase in foreign participation in IPOs, exemplified by a large domestic company's IPO where foreign subscription reached 70-80% [2][3] - The global asset allocation logic is changing, with investors moving away from USD assets due to geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism, leading them to consider Hong Kong stocks as a viable alternative [2][3] - The investment logic for foreign capital is shifting from "Anything But China" to "Buy China," indicating a growing confidence in Chinese assets [2][3] Group 2: Market Performance - HKEX reported impressive performance in the first half of the year, with new stock financing reaching HKD 109.4 billion, reclaiming the top position among global exchanges, and an average daily trading volume of HKD 240.2 billion, up 118% year-on-year [1][2] - The average daily trading volume for Hong Kong stocks is projected to rise from approximately HKD 1 billion in 2023 to HKD 1.3 billion in 2024, and further to HKD 2.4 billion in the first half of 2025, with foreign capital accounting for about 70% of the trading volume [3][4] Group 3: Institutional Innovation - HKEX is committed to optimizing its institutional framework to meet the diverse needs of enterprises and investors, with recent innovations such as the introduction of Chapter 18A and 18C allowing biotech and specialized technology companies to list without prior revenue [4][5] - The introduction of these new listing rules reflects HKEX's proactive approach to align with long-term investor demands and support early-stage financing for innovative companies [5][6] Group 4: Market Connectivity - The IPO boom in Hong Kong is positively correlated with the A-share market, with "A+H" listings creating a virtuous cycle between the two markets [5][6] - HKEX aims to enhance its product offerings in fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodities to better compete globally, as current offerings are limited compared to US markets [6] - Future plans include expanding the range of products available through the Stock Connect program, such as ETFs and bonds, to facilitate greater access for foreign investors [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **government bond futures market** and its trading strategies, highlighting its role in risk management and investment opportunities [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Characteristics of Government Bond Futures**: - Features include short-selling mechanisms, margin trading, standardized contracts, and daily mark-to-market settlement, which help mitigate interest rate risks, lower transaction costs, enhance liquidity, and reduce credit risks [1][2]. - **Functions of Government Bond Futures**: - Key functions include hedging against interest rate fluctuations, price discovery, linkage between primary and secondary markets, and optimizing asset allocation [1][2][3]. - **Types of Government Bond Futures in China**: - China has introduced futures for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds, covering critical maturities. Each contract corresponds to different remaining maturity ranges, with longer maturities having wider price fluctuation limits and higher minimum margin requirements [1][4]. - **Basis and Net Basis**: - Basis is the difference between the cash bond price and the futures price adjusted for the conversion factor, serving as an important indicator for analyzing arbitrage opportunities. Net basis considers holding income, which is crucial for selecting the cheapest deliverable bond (CTD) [1][7][10]. - **Market Participants**: - Main participants in the government bond futures market include brokerage firms, asset management products (like public funds and private equity), individual investors, and some banks and insurance companies. The market has seen steady growth in trading volume and open interest since 2023 [5][6]. Additional Important Content - **Hedging Strategies**: - Hedging strategies include short and long hedges to manage interest rate risks. The process involves selecting contracts, calculating hedge ratios, dynamically adjusting positions, and managing rollovers [2][12][13]. - **Risks in Hedging**: - Risks faced during hedging include basis risk, financing spread volatility, and term mismatch risk. These risks arise from the imperfect correlation between the swap contract indicators and actual yields [17][27]. - **Interest Rate Swaps**: - Interest rate swaps are over-the-counter financial contracts that help manage interest rate risk by exchanging fixed and floating interest payments. They can also be used for speculation and cost reduction [21][22]. - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: - Arbitrage strategies in the futures market include directional trading and relative value strategies, such as term arbitrage and cross-asset strategies [19][28][29]. - **Risks in OTC Contracts**: - OTC contracts carry additional risks compared to exchange-traded contracts, including credit, operational, and valuation risks. Market risk arises if actual market conditions deviate from expectations [30]. This summary encapsulates the essential aspects of the government bond futures market and its associated trading strategies, highlighting both opportunities and risks for market participants.

Core Viewpoint - The Bond Connect has reached its eighth anniversary, showcasing significant growth in international participation in China's bond market and announcing new optimization measures to enhance cross-border investment opportunities [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Growth and Participation - As of May 2025, over 1,169 international investors from more than 70 countries and regions have participated in China's interbank bond market, with foreign institutions holding onshore bonds worth 4.35 trillion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12% over the past five years [1]. - In 2024, the total trading volume of the "Northbound" Bond Connect reached 10.4 trillion yuan, setting a new record, with a year-to-date trading volume of 4.66 trillion yuan as of the end of May, an increase of 205 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [3]. Group 2: New Optimization Measures - The People's Bank of China announced three new measures to enhance the Bond Connect, including improving the "Southbound" mechanism to allow more domestic investors to invest in offshore bond markets, expanding the eligible investor categories to include non-bank financial institutions [3][4]. - The optimization of offshore repurchase business mechanisms will facilitate liquidity management for foreign investors, allowing transactions in multiple currencies such as USD, EUR, and HKD, and simplifying operational processes [5]. - The "Swap Connect" will also be optimized to better meet investors' interest rate risk management needs, with plans to expand the range of products and adjust daily trading limits [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Bond Connect is expected to continue serving as a bridge between China's bond market and international investors, promoting the diversification of onshore and offshore RMB product ecosystems [2][8]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority emphasizes the importance of these new measures in solidifying Hong Kong's role as an international financial center and offshore RMB hub, enhancing the liquidity of offshore RMB products [8]. - Industry experts anticipate increased inflows of foreign capital, particularly long-term funds, as China's bond market continues to develop and diversify [9].