（原标题：特朗普称关税收入达每日30亿美元？数据揭示实际远低于预期） 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普近日表示，美国关税每天为政府带来30亿美元的收入，甚至暗示未 来有可能用关税收入取代个人所得税。然而，美国财政部的每日财务报告数据显示，实际情况与特朗普 的说法存在较大出入。 根据财政部数据，自4月9日将关税提高至目前水平以来，美国从进口关税中总共收取了147亿美元的收 入。这一数字比2024年同期增长了135%，比2025年3月同期上涨了83%。换算成日均收入，大约为9.18 亿美元，远低于特朗普本月早些时候在白宫椭圆形办公室宣称的"每天30亿美元"。 值得注意的是，关税收入的日常波动较大，因此未来一个月的数据可能会更清晰地反映整体趋势。财政 部预计将在5月份发布更详细的指标。 从目前的数据来看，特朗普提出的"以关税取代所得税"的设想，短期内似乎难以实现。 需要指出的是，财政部每日收入中还有一小部分来自消费税，例如酒精饮料等商品的税收，这部分由海 关人员收取，与特朗普政府期间的关税政策变化无关。2024年，这类收入每日平均在3000万到5000万美 元之间。 总体来看，关税收入仍远低于美国通过个人所得税征 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that personal income tax is no longer collected during the invoice issuance process for labor remuneration, manuscript remuneration, and royalties, as the tax is now withheld by the payer according to regulations [1][4]. - The policy is based on the announcement from the State Administration of Taxation regarding the management of individual income tax withholding and declaration [1][4]. - The withholding agent is responsible for calculating and withholding the personal income tax based on the net income after deducting expenses, with specific rules for manuscript income [1][3]. Group 2 - For labor remuneration, manuscript remuneration, and royalties, if the income per instance does not exceed 4,000 yuan, a deduction of 800 yuan is applied; if it exceeds 4,000 yuan, a deduction of 20% of the income is applied [3][4]. - The taxable income for withholding is calculated based on the income amount after deductions, with different withholding rates applied for different income brackets [4][5]. - The withholding rates for labor remuneration are structured in tiers, with a 20% rate for income up to 20,000 yuan, 30% for income between 20,000 and 50,000 yuan, and 40% for income exceeding 50,000 yuan [5].

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal data for January-February 2025 shows unusual trends, with public fiscal revenue experiencing a negative year-on-year growth while personal income tax saw a significant increase, reaching its highest growth rate in nearly 10 months. This divergence raises questions about the underlying factors driving these changes [1][3]. Group 1: Personal Income Tax Growth - The high growth rate of personal income tax at 26.7% year-on-year is attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival, which affected the collection of year-end bonuses. In years where the Spring Festival falls in January, the peak for personal income tax collection occurs in February, while in years where it falls in February, the peak occurs in March. This year's earlier Spring Festival compared to last year has amplified the growth in personal income tax for January-February [1][3]. Group 2: Tax Revenue Dynamics - Positive contributors to tax revenue include the securities transaction stamp duty and value-added tax, both benefiting from supportive policies. The securities transaction stamp duty has shown double-digit growth for five consecutive months due to increased trading enthusiasm in the stock market since the "924" policy [3][7]. - Negative contributors include corporate income tax, which saw a year-on-year decline of 10.4%, indicating ongoing challenges for businesses. Additionally, consumption-related taxes such as consumption tax and vehicle purchase tax are weaker than last year, and taxes related to imports are also experiencing negative growth. The real estate sector remains under pressure, with real estate-related taxes declining by 11.4% year-on-year and local land transfer revenue decreasing by 15.7% [7][10]. Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure Trends - Fiscal expenditure is shifting focus from infrastructure to technology and social welfare. Compared to last year, infrastructure-related fiscal spending has significantly decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 6.2% in January-February 2025, contrasting with a growth of 17.9% in the same period of 2024 [10][13]. - In contrast, expenditures related to technology, education, social security, and employment continue to show high growth rates of 10.5%, 7.7%, and 5.5% respectively, indicating a sustained commitment to these areas [13].

Revenue Analysis - In January-February 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 43,856 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%[4] - Tax revenue amounted to 36,349 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 11% to 7,507 billion yuan[4] Personal Income Tax Insights - The personal income tax saw a significant year-on-year increase of 26.7%, the highest growth rate in nearly 10 months, largely influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival[4] - The early Spring Festival this year compared to last year resulted in a front-loaded peak in personal income tax collection[4] Tax Revenue Contributors - The securities transaction stamp duty and value-added tax provided strong support to fiscal revenue, benefiting from policy initiatives and increased market activity[5] - Corporate income tax experienced a negative growth of -10.4%, indicating ongoing challenges for businesses[5] Expenditure Trends - Infrastructure-related fiscal spending decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of -6.2% in January-February 2025, compared to a growth of 17.9% in the same period of 2024[6] - Spending on technology, education, social security, and employment remained robust, with growth rates of 10.5%, 7.7%, and 5.5% respectively[6] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic landscape, and fluctuations in exports[6]

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Taxation - In January-February 2025, national general public budget revenue was CNY 4.4 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%[6] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.9%, while non-tax revenue increased by 11%[7] - Personal income tax grew by 26.7%, contributing 2 percentage points to fiscal revenue, primarily due to a low base in 2024[7] - Corporate income tax fell by 10.4%, dragging down fiscal revenue by 2.4 percentage points, indicating ongoing challenges in corporate profitability recovery[7] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure and Investment - National general public budget expenditure reached CNY 4.5 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[6] - Social security, education, and health spending accounted for approximately 43.1% of total expenditure, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous year[7] - Infrastructure-related spending decreased by 5.6% year-on-year, contributing to a 1.2 percentage point drag on overall fiscal expenditure[7] Group 3: Land Sales and Government Funds - Government fund revenue was CNY 0.6 trillion, down 10.7% year-on-year, with land transfer revenue declining by 15.7%[7] - The pace of government fund expenditure was slower than in previous years, with a cumulative completion rate of 10.2%[7] Group 4: Fiscal Challenges and Future Outlook - The broad fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates were -2.9% and 2.9%, respectively, falling short of the annual budget targets of 0.2% and 9.3%[7] - The government plans to issue CNY 5.66 trillion in deficits for 2025, with a broad deficit rate projected at approximately 8.4%[7] - Future fiscal policies may need to be adjusted to address ongoing revenue pressures and support economic stability[7]