2025.08.22 本文字数：1631，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 陈益刊 更加积极财政政策陆续落地，推动经济平稳运行。 根据财政部最新数据，今年前7个月广义财政（全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）收入合计约 15.9万亿元，与去年同期基本持平。广义财政支出约21.5万亿元，同比增长约9.3%。广义财政支出超出 收入约5.6万亿元，同比增长约47%。 根据中国人民银行数据，今年前7个月，政府债券净融资8.9万亿元，同比增4.88万亿元。 财政支出规模及结构是衡量财政政策扩张程度的重要指标。今年前7个月广义财政支出增速（9.3%）明 显高于经济增速（上半年国内生产总值同比增长5.3%），折射出更加积极财政政策的落地。 中国银河证券首席宏观分析师张迪认为，整体来看，前7个月财政数据总量和结构基本延续持续改善趋 势。在土地收入维持平稳、印花税（含证券交易印花税）大幅增长情形下，7月广义财政收入增速改 善、回暖。在政府债发行前置下，广义财政支出力度加快上行，对经济增长起到了重要支撑。 今年以来，广义财政收入降幅持续缩窄，直至今年前7个月这一数据与去年同期持平。这主要得益于税 收收入和地方政府土地出让收 ...

更加积极财政政策陆续落地，推动经济平稳运行。 根据财政部最新数据，今年前7个月广义财政（全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）收入合计约 15.9万亿元，与去年同期基本持平。广义财政支出约21.5万亿元，同比增长约9.3%。广义财政支出超出 收入约5.6万亿元，同比增长约47%。 财政部数据显示，今年以来地方政府性基金中的国有土地使用权出让收入降幅不断缩窄，今年前7个月 土地出让收入约1.7万亿元，同比下降4.6%。 尽管广义财政收入逐步回暖，但也仅为去年同期水平，为了保持支出扩张力度，中央和地方政府加快发 债筹资，投向重大项目、防范风险等领域。 根据中国人民银行数据，今年前7个月，政府债券净融资8.9万亿元，同比增4.88万亿元。 在财政收入和债务收入支撑下，今年广义财政支出保持一定力度。从资金使用来看，民生领域支出不断 加力，得到充分保障。比如，社保就业、教育、卫生健康等支出增速均高于总体支出增速。 随着近期养老金提标、3岁以下育儿补贴和幼儿园大班免保教费等系列政策落地，民生支出持续加力， 这也体现了财政资金更多"投资于人"。 财政支出规模及结构是衡量财政政策扩张程度的重要指标。今年前7个月广义财政支出增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first half of 2025, highlighting a notable increase in fiscal spending and the implications for future fiscal policy and economic recovery [2][6][76]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while expenditure was 141,271 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [2][6][76]. - The broad fiscal revenue in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and broad fiscal expenditure increased by 17.6%, with both metrics improving compared to May [7][78]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first six months was 47.8%, higher than the five-year average of 47.4%, while the expenditure completion rate was 44.4%, slightly below the average of 45.1% [7][78]. Group 2: Government Debt and Financing - The increase in broad fiscal expenditure is attributed to government debt financing, with a broad fiscal deficit of -5.3 trillion yuan in June, the highest level for the same period historically [12][76]. - As of July 13, 2025, the net financing of government bonds reached approximately 2.9 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 59.4%, significantly higher than the 51.6% in 2024 [12][76]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance of new special bonds remains slow, with a total issuance scale of 2.2 trillion yuan and a progress rate of 50.6%, which is lower than the same period in 2022 and 2023 [18][77]. - Land transfer revenue in June increased by 22% year-on-year, indicating a recovery, although the overall real estate sales growth remains sluggish [18][77]. Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8% in June, while general fiscal revenue saw a decline of 0.3% [31][78]. - Government fund expenditure surged by 79.2% year-on-year in June, driven by the recovery in land transfer revenue and accelerated spending from central special bonds [66][78]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of high fiscal expenditure growth in the second half of 2025 will depend on the recovery of tax revenue and land transfer income, as well as the potential for continued funding from policy financial tools [24][77].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first half of 2025, highlighting a notable increase in fiscal spending and the implications for future fiscal policy and economic recovery [2][6][76]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while the expenditure was 141,271 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [2][6][76]. - The broad fiscal revenue in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and the broad fiscal expenditure increased by 17.6%, both significantly higher than the previous month [2][7][78]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first six months was 47.8%, above the five-year average of 47.4%, while the expenditure completion rate was 44.4%, slightly below the average of 45.1% [2][7][78]. Group 2: Government Debt and Financing - The increase in broad fiscal expenditure is attributed to government debt financing, with a broad fiscal deficit reaching -5.3 trillion yuan, the highest level for the same period in previous years [12][24][76]. - As of July 13, 2025, the net financing of government bonds was approximately 2.9 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 59.4%, significantly higher than the 51.6% in the same period of 2024 [12][24][76]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance of new special bonds remains slow, with a total issuance scale of 2.2 trillion yuan and a progress rate of 50.6%, which is lower than the 94.4% and 60.7% in the same periods of 2022 and 2023, respectively [3][18][77]. - Land transfer revenue in June 2025 increased by 22% year-on-year, indicating a recovery, although the overall real estate sales growth remains sluggish [3][18][77]. Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8% in June 2025, while general fiscal revenue decreased by 0.3% [25][31][78]. - Government fund expenditure surged by 79.2% year-on-year in June 2025, driven by the recovery in land transfer revenue and accelerated spending from central special bonds [48][66][78]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of high fiscal expenditure growth in the second half of 2025 will depend on the recovery of tax revenue and land transfer income, as well as the potential for continued funding support from policy financial tools [24][77].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the fiscal situation in China for April 2025, focusing on government spending, revenue, and infrastructure investment trends. Core Insights and Arguments - **Fiscal Spending Growth**: In April 2025, fiscal spending growth accelerated, primarily due to government debt financing support. The issuance of central ordinary and special government bonds has increased, with local governments shifting focus towards project investments, especially in infrastructure [3][5][8]. - **Local Government Investment**: Local governments have actively engaged in infrastructure investments through special bonds, with significant increases in government fund budget expenditures corresponding to local infrastructure investments. Social welfare-related expenditures have also risen, indicating increased pressure to maintain employment [5][6]. - **Revenue Improvement**: There was a marginal improvement in fiscal revenue in April 2025, although it remained in negative growth territory overall. Corporate income tax and export-related taxes provided some support, with corporate income tax improvements likely linked to corporate profit growth [6][9]. - **Structural Changes in Public Finance**: Public finance expenditures have shown structural changes, with a slight recovery in transportation spending and a decline in agricultural and forestry-related expenditures. This indicates a more proactive approach by local governments towards infrastructure investments [7][8]. - **Land Sale Revenue**: Land sale revenue growth remained negative in the first quarter of 2025, but micro-level data showed a recovery in land transaction prices across 330 cities. Fiscal confirmation of revenue lagged behind, only showing improvement in April [10]. - **Future Policy Outlook**: The future policy outlook suggests a preference for utilizing existing policies before considering any new measures. The second quarter will see continued acceleration in the implementation of existing policies, with potential new policies dependent on external pressures and upcoming political meetings [4][11][12]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Export Tax Revenue**: The first quarter of 2025 saw historically low export-related tax revenues, primarily due to high export tax rebates. This situation is linked to the "rush to export" phenomenon [9]. - **Monitoring Future Developments**: The upcoming political meetings in July and August will be critical in determining whether additional fiscal measures will be introduced, especially if export growth approaches zero [13].