2025 年 12 月 10 日 固 定 收 益 资金面内生稳定性回升 等待年末政策信号明朗 ——2025 年 12 月流动性月报 投资要点： 固 定 收 益 定 期 报 告 10 月超储率较 9 月下降约 0.2pct 至 1.2%，略低于我们预期的 1.3%。 10 月政府存款上升 6258 亿元，高于预期的 3781 亿，这是 10 月超储率低 于预期的主要原因。尽管 10 月政府存款相较于广义财政盈余及政府债净缴 款之和额外下降了 1272 亿元，但一般公共预算支出大幅低于预期，使得广 义财政盈余规模达到了 2641 亿元，而非预期的赤字。以当前数据看，全年 一般公共预算支出存在低于年初目标的可能，而在此前的大幅偏离后，今 年政府性基金支出可能较年初目标相对接近。此外，10 月央行对其他存款 性公司债权上升 146 亿元，与高频数据相差不大；10 月央行法定存款准备 金减少幅度高于预期，货币发行减少幅度低于预期，外汇占款基本符合我 们此前的预期。 11 月广义财政赤字或相对偏高，但考虑 11 月政府债净缴款大幅上行， 我们预计 11 月政府存款环比下降约 2500 亿，降幅处于往年同期中性水平， 对流 ...

Group 1: Liquidity and Financial Indicators - The excess reserve ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points to 1.4% in September, remaining stable compared to June[6] - The general fiscal deficit reached a record high of 2.11 trillion yuan in September, significantly exceeding expectations by approximately 360 billion yuan[6] - Government deposits decreased by 780.4 billion yuan in September, marking the largest decline for the same period in recent years[6] Group 2: October Projections and Market Conditions - In October, government deposits are expected to rise by approximately 380 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than the same period in previous years, reducing negative liquidity impacts[15] - The average interest rates for DR001 and DR007 reached new lows for the year in October, indicating a continued state of liquidity easing[28] - The anticipated excess reserve ratio for November is around 1.3%, remaining stable compared to October and slightly higher than the same period in the past two years[3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Future Outlook - The central bank's recent actions suggest a maintained easing stance, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts in the future to support economic stability[3] - The central bank's balance sheet showed an increase in claims on other deposit-taking institutions by 897.4 billion yuan in September, aligning with high-frequency data[14] - Risks include potential underperformance in fiscal spending and monetary policy not meeting expectations, which could impact liquidity and market stability[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In May, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue turned negative again, and the intensity of fiscal expenditure dropped significantly. The sustainability of fiscal stimulus after June needs to be observed, and it may be necessary to increase the budget to expand the deficit [1][4]. Summary by Catalog Fiscal Revenue - **General Fiscal Revenue**: In May, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue was -1.2%, turning negative again (April: 2.7%). From January to May, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue was -1.3% [1][8]. - **General Public Budget Revenue**: In May 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was 0.1% (April: 1.9%), tax revenue was 0.6% (April: 1.9%), and non-tax revenue was -2.2% (April: 1.7%). Central revenue grew by 0.4% year-on-year, while local revenue decreased by 0.1% [1][10]. - **Tax Revenue Structure**: In May, tax revenue increased by 0.56% year-on-year. Among the four major taxes, domestic VAT increased by 6.1% (April: 0.9%), and personal income tax increased by 12.3% (April: 9.0%). Corporate income tax increased by only 0.02% (April: 3.97%), indicating pressure on corporate profit growth. Real estate-related taxes decreased by 8.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening [2][12]. - **Government Fund Revenue**: In May, the year-on-year growth rate of government fund revenue was -8.1% (April: 8.1%), turning negative again. Without incremental policies, it is difficult to significantly improve government fund budget revenue in the short term [2][14]. Fiscal Expenditure - **General Public Budget Expenditure**: In May, the year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was 2.6% (April: 5.8%), with the growth rate declining [3][16]. - **Government Fund Expenditure**: In May, the year-on-year growth rate of government fund expenditure was 8.8% (April: 44.7%), showing a significant decline [3][16]. - **Expenditure Structure**: In May, infrastructure-related fiscal expenditures contracted overall, with a year-on-year growth rate of -7.69% (April: 2.15%). Expenditures on social security, science and technology, and culture and tourism had relatively high growth rates [3][16]. Fiscal Deficit - As of May, the cumulative broad fiscal deficit was 3.30 trillion yuan. Assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 4% this year, the current cumulative broad deficit ratio is 2.4%, higher than most of the same periods in the past five years and close to 2022. It is necessary to observe whether fiscal expenditure in June can maintain a high intensity [4][21]. Policy Outlook - To maintain the pace of fiscal stimulus, it may be necessary to increase the budget to expand the deficit. After the Politburo meeting on April 25, monetary policy was implemented first, but incremental fiscal policies have not been introduced. Incremental fiscal policies are expected in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of July and policy implementation in August and September [4][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the broad fiscal revenue turned slightly positive, and the intensity of fiscal expenditure continued to increase. Looking ahead, both domestic and external demands are under pressure due to the fluctuating tariff policies, so incremental fiscal policies are still worth expecting [1][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Revenue Side - In April, the year - to - date tax revenue growth rate turned positive for the first time, the non - tax revenue growth rate declined, and the general budget revenue growth rate slightly increased. From January to April, the central general public budget revenue decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, while the local general public budget revenue increased by 2.2% year - on - year [1][10]. - In terms of taxes, personal income tax and enterprise income tax had relatively high growth rates. New - quality productivity supported tax growth. The government - funded revenue growth rate turned positive for the first time in nearly a year, which may be related to the improvement in land transactions at the beginning of the year and the lag in land transfer revenues, but its sustainability remains to be seen [2][12]. Expenditure Side - In April, the expenditure of the general public budget maintained a relatively high growth rate, and the expenditure growth rate of government - funded funds further increased, indicating that fiscal expenditure was front - loaded. Structurally, the expenditure on social sciences, culture, and education increased significantly [3][16]. - Measured by the broad deficit, fiscal efforts were intensified and were earlier than in previous years. As of April, the cumulative broad fiscal deficit was 2.65 trillion yuan, and the current cumulative broad deficit rate was 1.9%, higher than the same period from 2021 - 2024 and similar to that in 2020 [4][22].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 fiscal budget reflects low revenue growth targets due to domestic and international pressures, while maintaining high expenditure levels to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal adjustments [1][5]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Targets - For the first budget, the 2025 general public budget revenue and expenditure growth targets are set at 0.1% and 4.4% respectively, indicating ongoing fiscal challenges [2]. - The share of spending on livelihood and technology in the general public budget has increased, with livelihood spending accounting for 37.1% and technology spending reaching a historical high of 4.2% [2]. - For the second budget, the growth target for government fund revenue is 0.7%, while expenditure growth is set to increase to 23.1%, indicating a proactive fiscal stance [2]. Fiscal Deficit Analysis - The estimated broad fiscal deficit for 2025 is approximately 11.4 trillion, corresponding to a broad deficit rate of about 8.0%, marking the highest level historically [3]. - The implied nominal GDP for 2025 is calculated to be 141.5 trillion, with a nominal GDP growth rate of approximately 4.9% [3]. Recent Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Situation - In January-February, general public budget revenue declined, primarily due to negative growth in tax revenue, influenced by the early timing of the Spring Festival [4]. - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4%, with a notable acceleration in government debt issuance, indicating a proactive fiscal approach [4]. - Expenditures in technology (10.6%), education (7.7%), and social security and employment (6.7%) have shown significant growth, reflecting strong support for livelihood and technological innovation [4].

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Taxation - In January-February 2025, national general public budget revenue was CNY 4.4 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%[6] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.9%, while non-tax revenue increased by 11%[7] - Personal income tax grew by 26.7%, contributing 2 percentage points to fiscal revenue, primarily due to a low base in 2024[7] - Corporate income tax fell by 10.4%, dragging down fiscal revenue by 2.4 percentage points, indicating ongoing challenges in corporate profitability recovery[7] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure and Investment - National general public budget expenditure reached CNY 4.5 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[6] - Social security, education, and health spending accounted for approximately 43.1% of total expenditure, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous year[7] - Infrastructure-related spending decreased by 5.6% year-on-year, contributing to a 1.2 percentage point drag on overall fiscal expenditure[7] Group 3: Land Sales and Government Funds - Government fund revenue was CNY 0.6 trillion, down 10.7% year-on-year, with land transfer revenue declining by 15.7%[7] - The pace of government fund expenditure was slower than in previous years, with a cumulative completion rate of 10.2%[7] Group 4: Fiscal Challenges and Future Outlook - The broad fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates were -2.9% and 2.9%, respectively, falling short of the annual budget targets of 0.2% and 9.3%[7] - The government plans to issue CNY 5.66 trillion in deficits for 2025, with a broad deficit rate projected at approximately 8.4%[7] - Future fiscal policies may need to be adjusted to address ongoing revenue pressures and support economic stability[7]