【纠错】 【责任编辑:谷玥】 9月22日人民币汇率中间价如下： 100美元 711.06人民币 100欧元 835.16人民币 100日元 4.8060人民币 100港元 91.499人民币 100英镑 958.41人民币 100澳元 469.11人民币 100新西兰元 416.58人民币 100新加坡元 553.7人民币 100瑞士法郎 893.7人民币 100加元 516.26人民币 100人民币112.62澳门元 100人民币59.122马来西亚林吉特 100人民币1173.01俄罗斯卢布 100人民币243.58南非兰特 100人民币19635韩元 100人民币51.619阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币52.709沙特里亚尔 100人民币4674.96匈牙利福林 100人民币51.081波兰兹罗提 100人民币89.37丹麦克朗 100人民币132.33瑞典克朗 100人民币139.52挪威克朗 100人民币581.88土耳其里拉 100人民币258.92墨西哥比索 100人民币447.71泰铢 新华社北京9月22日电 中国外汇交易中心9月22日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英 镑、澳元、新西兰 ...

Domestic Economic Insights - Economic data from July and August indicates significant pressure on domestic demand and a slowdown in external demand, leading to an increased probability of policy adjustments in the coming month[2] - In August, fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year, down from 1.6% in July, with infrastructure investment growth decreasing from 7.3% to 5.4%[18] - Retail sales growth in August was 3.4%, a decline from 3.7% in July, reflecting ongoing economic challenges[18] Currency and Monetary Policy - The phase of active appreciation of the RMB may be temporarily over, as the exchange rate is influenced by the prospects of Sino-U.S. and Sino-European trade talks[2] - Following the September FOMC meeting, the USD has paused its depreciation, reducing the passive appreciation pressure on the RMB[2] - The central bank's liquidity tightening during the RMB appreciation process is expected to shift back to a more abundant liquidity environment[2] International Economic Developments - The September FOMC cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with a focus on managing risks rather than responding to inflation, indicating a cautious economic outlook[17] - Upcoming Sino-U.S. talks are anticipated, with a potential meeting at APEC on October 31, and further negotiations expected before November[17] - Market volatility in overseas risk assets is expected in the coming weeks, but a bullish outlook on U.S. stocks remains[17] Market Performance Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a period of consolidation, while the Hong Kong market has seen slight gains[41] - U.S. stocks have shown a comprehensive upward trend, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.05% and the S&P 500 increasing by 1.22%[42] - Gold prices are fluctuating at high levels, while international crude oil prices have seen a slight decline[38]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is seen as a significant move that could initiate a broader easing cycle, impacting global economies due to the dollar's role as a primary currency [1][3] - The backdrop for this rate cut includes a sharp decline in U.S. employment rates, with revisions showing a 90% downward adjustment in non-farm payroll data for May and June, leading to a high unemployment rate not seen in four years [3] - The market's initial reaction to the rate cut was a decline in gold and stock prices, while the dollar remained stable, indicating that the positive effects of the rate cut were already priced in by investors [4][5] Group 2 - The interest rate differential between the U.S. and China may lead to capital outflows from China as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle, but this could also provide breathing room for the Chinese economy [7] - Predictions suggest that the Chinese yuan may appreciate against the dollar, with forecasts indicating a potential "break 7" level by year-end, attracting foreign investment into Chinese assets [7] - The real estate market in China could benefit from a potential domestic rate cut, which would lower mortgage costs and make housing more accessible, although demand has weakened compared to previous years [8] Group 3 - The rise in gold prices is driven by factors beyond just the Fed's rate cuts, including geopolitical tensions and economic instability, suggesting that future gold price movements will depend on global conflict resolution and U.S. economic performance [10] - The overall sentiment from the Fed's rate cut is positive, indicating a potential for long-term investment opportunities in emerging markets, including A-shares, despite the current high U.S. benchmark interest rates [8][10]

上午9点，广州某银行VIP室里，一位刚从美国回来的留学生妈妈正在焦急地刷着手机汇率。 "我儿子下个月要交学费，2万美元……现在这汇率，是不是等等更划算？"她指着屏幕上7.0995的数字 问道。 坐在对面的资深外汇经理老张笑了笑："阿姨，您这可问对人了。昨天我刚处理了50多个类似咨询，大 家都在纠结同一个问题——现在换美元，到底亏不亏？" 9月17日，离岸人民币兑美元升破7.10关口，最高触及7.0995，创下去年11月以来新高。这个数字背后， 藏着三股强大的推动力： 美联储降息预期升温：华尔街普遍预测，美联储9月会议可能启动降息周期，美元指数已连续三周下 跌。 2. 第二招：分批换汇模型 外资疯狂涌入：仅8月份，境外资金净买入中国债券就超过1200亿元，创下年内新高。 中国出口韧性超预期：8月出口同比增长8.7%，贸易顺差持续扩大，外汇储备稳中有升。 高盛更是大胆预测：人民币汇率2026年或将达到6.7！ 但问题来了——面对这波汇率巨震，普通人该怎么办？ 1.第一招：现钞现汇差价密码 老张拿出计算器，开始给这位妈妈算账： "很多人不知道，银行的现钞价和现汇价是不一样的。今天现汇买入价7.1085，现钞买入价7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed restarts rate cuts, the probability of the domestic central bank "following suit" to cut rates increases, with a higher probability of implementation after the end of October. After three consecutive months of adjustment, the current bond market has shown initial signs of stabilization. In the fourth quarter, bond market interest rates may start a new round of smooth decline. Investors are advised to defend and counterattack, and enter the market at around 1.8% of the 10-year Treasury bond [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Observation - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the expectation of the central bank's monetary easing strengthened, and the 10-year Treasury bond interest rate showed an "N" shape. The impact of the equity market on the bond market has gradually weakened, and investors' expectation of the central bank's loose monetary policy has strengthened [11]. 3.2 External Constraints Weaken: "Room for Maneuver" Opens - On September 18, the Fed cut the federal benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the 4.0% - 4.25% range, the first rate cut since late 2024. Since mid-July 2025, the narrowing of the Sino-US interest rate spread and the weakening of the US dollar have reduced the risk of capital outflows, improved the domestic liquidity environment, and opened up room for the central bank to cut rates. However, it is necessary to prevent the side effect of "rapid RMB appreciation → decline in export competitiveness" [12][16]. 3.3 Internal Constraints Remain: Low Bank Interest Margin + Rising Real Interest Rate - Currently, rate cuts still face the dual constraints of "low bank net interest margin + rising real interest rate". As of June 2025, the net interest margin of commercial banks has dropped to a historical low. A significant rate cut may lead to higher real interest rates, which will inhibit consumption and investment to some extent [20]. 3.4 Rate Cuts Are Approaching: Higher Probability After the End of October - After the Fed's rate cut, the probability of the domestic central bank cutting rates increases, but the pace, magnitude, and method will be "domestically oriented", with a higher probability of implementation after the end of October. If the GDP and credit data in the third quarter continue to weaken and the Fed cuts rates again in October, it may be a better time for the central bank to cut rates comprehensively [27][28]. 3.5 Bond Market Asset Performance No specific content analysis provided in the text, only some data chart descriptions. 3.6 High-Frequency Entity Tracking: Food Prices Differentiate, Energy Costs Rise - **Price-related**: This week, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index declined slightly, international crude oil prices rose, vegetable and meat prices mostly declined, and fruit prices rose [45]. - **Industry-related**: This week, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index rose, glass and coking coal prices increased, and the blast furnace operating rate and petroleum asphalt operating rate showed differentiation [51]. - **Investment and Real Estate-related**: This week, investment and real estate-related data remained weak, with a decline in the land transaction area in 100 large and medium-sized cities and a slight increase in the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities. The decline of the second-hand housing listing price index slowed down, and the cumulative increase in the housing completion area increased but was still lower than the same period in previous years [59]. - **Travel and Consumption-related**: This week, travel and consumption data recovered seasonally, with an increase in the subway passenger volume in first-tier cities, a decline in movie box office revenue, a 3.5% increase in passenger car retail sales compared with the same period last month, and a slight increase in the number of domestic flights [67].

文|功夫鱼 前 言 9月18日凌晨，美联储终于按下"降息键"，把利率从 4.25%~4.50% 下调到 4.00%~4.25%。听起来像是个 大新闻，但市场早已提前偷看"剧本"，人民币并没有上演过山车，而是淡定得像个"见过世面的老玩 家"。 当天人民币中间价报 7.1085，小幅下调 72 个基点；离岸人民币更是轻轻一跳，盘中又破了 7.10 关口。 看似风平浪静，背后其实是多重力量在较劲。 在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出 更优质的内容。 王青宏观分析师表示美联储降息的节奏，让美元"掉线"，人民币顺势被动升值，明明作为券商首席经济 学家表示人民币8月那波猛涨，是"美元偏弱、中间价暗示、A股亮眼、外资流入"的四重合奏，连平产 业研究院院长表示未来人民币可能迎来恢复性升值，外资会看上中国的低估值优质资产，但别太兴奋中 国经济仍面临压力得谨慎。 人民币未来怎么走？ 外部环境美联储降息周期开启，全球流动性宽松，新兴市场普遍受益，人民币大方向稳中偏强。 人民币的年度剧情回放 今年人民币的表现，可以用一部"反转剧"来形容，年初从 7.3 的高位一路反弹，像刚重启的游戏号 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will announce the new Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on September 22, with the current 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, unchanged for three months [1] - A press conference on the achievements of the financial sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan will be held on the same day, featuring key financial leaders [3] - The PBOC plans to issue 600 billion yuan of central bank bills with a 6-month maturity to enhance the RMB yield curve in Hong Kong [4] Group 2 - Following the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, there is speculation that global central banks, including the PBOC, may follow suit, potentially leading to a second wave of market rally in A-shares [5] - The PBOC has adjusted its 14-day reverse repo operations to a fixed quantity and multi-price bidding, which is seen as a move to enhance liquidity management [6] - The PBOC's liquidity management tools are being optimized to ensure stability in the financial system, especially ahead of major holidays [6] Group 3 - The external environment, including the Fed's rate cut and trade policies, may exert downward pressure on the US dollar, providing upward momentum for the RMB [7] - The PBOC is expected to flexibly manage liquidity through various instruments to stabilize the economy and support the RMB exchange rate [7] - A report from Galaxy Securities indicates that the priority for monetary policy in the fourth quarter will focus on economic growth and employment, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated [8]

在美联储重启降息的背景下，美元指数进一步走弱，这给了人民币在内的非美货币带来较强的 被动升值动能。9月17日，离岸人民币兑美元升破7.10关口，最高升至7.0995，为去年11月以 来首次。 近日，美联储正式官宣降息，虽然幅度只有25个基点，但市场普遍预计这只是此轮降息周期的 开始。在美联储降息消息公布后，美元指数迅速下探至今年1月以来最低点96.2199，创下自 2022年2月初以来的新低。 国际资本流动是汇率决定的关键因素之一，随着美联储降息路径的推进， 美元走弱已是大概 率事件。 图：图虫 出于对美联储议息会议决议公告惯例的预测，就在降息靴子落地前的一个交易日，离岸人民币 兑美元盘中升破7.10关口，这是自去年11月以来的首次。与此同时，在岸人民币收盘价亦同样 创下自去年同期以来新高。 在持续收窄的中美利差面前，人民币走强几乎没有悬念。但是，单凭中美利差，显然还不足以 解释当前日益逼近7.0整数大关的人民币汇率走势。 毕竟一国经济的基本面才是决定本国汇率根本。面对全球经济增速萎靡的颓势，中国超大市场 规模的优势正在成为全球稀缺资源，中国经济走势在横向国际比较中的优势日渐凸显。尤其是 西方国家深陷治理赤字 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to a weakening of the US dollar, providing strong upward momentum for non-US currencies, including the Renminbi [1][2] - On September 17, the offshore Renminbi broke the 7.10 mark against the US dollar, reaching a high of 7.0995, the first time since November of the previous year [1][2] - The narrowing interest rate differential between China and the US is a significant factor contributing to the Renminbi's strength, although the fundamental economic conditions also play a crucial role [2][3] Group 2 - International capital flows are a key determinant of exchange rates, and the expectation of a weaker dollar is becoming more likely as the Fed continues its rate-cutting path [2] - China's economic resilience and the relative decline in productivity growth in Western countries are supporting the Renminbi's appreciation [3][4] - Deutsche Bank has expressed optimism about the Renminbi, predicting it could break the 7 mark by 2025 and appreciate to 6.7 by 2026, reflecting a positive outlook on Chinese assets [3] Group 3 - The willingness of foreign trade enterprises to engage in currency exchange is increasing, leading to a net inflow in the foreign exchange market [4] - The People's Bank of China's monetary policy is effectively stabilizing exchange rate expectations, reducing the likelihood of rapid appreciation or depreciation of the Renminbi [4] - The market's expectation of a stable Renminbi value is likely to persist, although the introduction of more exchange rate hedging tools may increase the volatility of the Renminbi in the future [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is characterized as a "preventive rate cut," primarily driven by the ongoing weakness in the U.S. labor market since May, reflecting the Fed's challenging decision-making between deteriorating employment conditions and inflationary pressures [1] Impact on China - The adjustment space for China's monetary policy will further expand due to the Fed's rate cut [1] - The direct impact on China's stock and real estate markets is minimal, with effects more likely to manifest indirectly through domestic macro policy adjustments [1] Currency and Exchange Rate - The Fed's rate cut is expected to moderately compress the interest rate differential between China and the U.S., which is favorable for the Chinese yuan, potentially leading to passive appreciation [1] International Gold Prices - The Fed's rate cut is likely to be beneficial for international gold prices, which have already risen approximately 40% this year and have seen significant increases over the past two years [1] - Despite the current high levels of international gold prices, ongoing global geopolitical risks and future dollar trends suggest that gold prices may continue to rise, albeit with challenges in declining [1]