8月1日晚，美国就业报告公布，直接实锤了美国经济数据造假，更重要的是美国的虚假繁荣暴露在全球面前。美国的"经济例外论"神话开始崩塌，而对于中 国来说，这却可能是等待已久的战略性转折点——降息窗口终于真正打开了。 8月1日20:30，美国劳工部公布的7月份非农就业数据显示，新增就业仅为 7.3万人，远低于市场预期的18万人，这也是 近9个月来的最低值。失业率也从 4.1%上升至 4.2%，表面看，这已经够糟糕了。 但真正"炸场"的，是对 5月和6月的历史数据大幅下修：5月原本是14.4万人，调为 1.9万人；6月从14.7万人，调为 1.4万人。 这不是简单的统计偏差，而是 硬生生砍掉了25.8万人的新增就业。 这种操作，已经不能称为"修正"，而是 数据造假的实锤。更直白地说，之前美国经济"向好"的信号，是建立在严重失真的数据之上。这就像你觉得朋友收 入不错，结果发现他发的工资条是P的。 市场的反应也立刻到位： 美股三大指数大跌，纳指日内暴跌超过2%；欧洲斯托克600指数重挫1.9%，创下近四个月最大单日跌幅； 美元汇率暴跌1.3%，国 际油价应声下挫3%；美国"科技七姐妹"暴跌近3%。 这场连锁反应不是短期的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that certain incremental policies will be introduced by the end of June, with the timing dependent on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1] - The current interest rate differential between China and the US is significant, and if the Federal Reserve does not lower rates, China may have to maintain its current stance to prevent capital outflow [1] - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve may lower rates in May, which would likely prompt the Chinese central bank to take action around mid-May [1] Group 2 - Short-term pressure exists on bank stocks due to disappointing earnings, but long-term investment interest remains focused on dividend yields [3] - A decline in bank stocks often leads to a shift in market dynamics, with growth stocks performing better when bank stocks fall [3] - The performance of bank stocks has been lackluster, with growth rates declining from around 5% to stagnation or even decreases [4] Group 3 - The first quarter reports from the six major banks have been collectively disclosed [5] - The market may be entering a phase characterized by a focus on individual stocks rather than overall index performance, with large-cap stocks like banks dragging down indices while small-cap stocks thrive [7] - After a month of volatility, market sentiment is improving, and if no significant negative news arises during the upcoming holiday, positive sentiment may continue [7]