继续看好固态电池板块！20260115 摘要 碳酸锂价格受出口退税抢发预期影响超预期上涨，加速锂电池产业链通 胀，短期内供需结构性错配将加速盈利修复。预计 2026 年动力储能领 域锂电池需求同比增长 30%，国家补贴政策优化利好中高端车型消费及 电动重卡渗透。 出口退税率调整（2026 年 4 月起降至 6%，计划 2027 年 1 月前取消剩 余 6%）可能导致抢出口现象，尤其年底刺激更强，或将超预期提升今 年锂电池需求。 短期投资策略建议关注供需偏紧、具有涨价弹性的品种，如六氟磷酸锂、 VC、碳酸锂等。下半年看好隔膜、铜箔等资本开支放缓环节，电池环节 盈利有望在二季度再次上行。 全球首个车用固态电池国标草案发布，明确 120 摄氏度下 6 小时热箱试 验失重率小于等于 0.5%的量化指标，提升固态电池标准门槛，利于产 业化推进。工信部重申加快突破全固态技术，提振市场信心。 固态电池具备本征安全、宽温域、抗辐射及高能量密度优势，适用于太 空航天应用，预计到 2030 年太空光伏对应至少 100GWh 的固态需求， 商业航天加速推进打开固态远期市场空间。 Q&A 近期锂电板块的整体表现和市场预期如何？ 自 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively researching solid-state battery technology, which is a significant development direction for lithium battery technology, and is planning to monitor the field for future developments [2] Group 1 - The company is conducting research on all-solid-state batteries and will continue to pay attention to related fields [2] - The company plans to make future decisions based on industry and company-specific circumstances [2] - Currently, research and business related to solid-state and semi-solid-state batteries do not have a significant impact on the company's overall operating performance [2]

格隆汇1月15日丨派能科技(688063.SH)在互动平台表示，固态电池是锂电池技术的重要发展方向，公司 正在开展全固态电池的研究工作，并将持续关注相关领域，未来将根据行业及公司实际情况进行规划。 目前，固态/半固态电池相关研究及业务，对公司整体经营业绩没有重大影响。 ...

Summary of Solid-State Battery Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The solid-state battery sector is expected to show growth momentum after 2026, driven by major manufacturers' tenders and automotive road tests, with clearer technical solutions and cost reduction paths, supported by policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1][3] - The commercialization of hybrid solid-liquid batteries is progressing positively, with companies like Delong and Hongqi collaborating, and Jinlongyu planning to establish a 2GWh production line targeting clients in drones and energy storage [1][4] - Pure solid-state batteries are currently focused on road testing and detection, with an emphasis on the demand expansion and value enhancement of materials such as lithium sulfide and lithium metal anodes [1][4] Key Developments - The solid-state battery sector has transitioned from speculative trading to policy-driven growth since Q2 2025, forming a more certain market space [3] - Significant developments include the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizing breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology in its 14th Five-Year Plan, and advancements in electrolyte technology reducing costs by over 95% [3] - Major automotive manufacturers are advancing high-energy products testing, and lithium sulfide production capacity is ramping up, clarifying technical and cost pathways [3] Commercialization Progress - The commercialization of hybrid solid-state batteries is expected to become clearer in 2026, with companies like Delong and Jinlongyu making significant strides [4] - The lithium sulfide supply chain has seen multiple companies establish production lines exceeding 100 tons, entering cost reduction phases [4] Electrolyte Development - The electrolyte segment has seen several companies establish production lines exceeding 100 tons, with traditional lithium battery leaders also exploring this area [5] - This segment is viewed as having significant potential for investment, given its value-doubling materials and alignment with long-term solid-state battery development [5] Anode-Free Solutions - Anode-free solutions are gaining attention, with companies like Zhongyin Technology and Hailiang collaborating with major clients to reserve production capacity [6] - The low-cost solutions being developed by the team from the University of Science and Technology of China may present investment opportunities [7] Material Segments to Watch - Other material segments worth monitoring include cathode materials, aluminum-plastic films, and nickel-iron current collectors, which are expected to gain traction during the new technology iteration cycle [8] - Companies like Shanghai Xiba and Xiamen Tungsten New Energy are well-positioned in the lithium sulfide sector, and those with strong client relationships, such as Guoci Dangsheng, are also recommended for investment [8] Industry Expansion Forecast - The lithium battery industry's expansion forecast for 2026 is significantly higher than previous estimates, with actual production expected to exceed 1,000GWh, up from earlier predictions of around 700GWh for 2025 [9] Equipment Company Performance - Lithium battery equipment companies are currently experiencing full order books, with many increasing their workforce to meet demand [10] - Some companies are raising prepayment and shipping ratios, with some orders reaching 70% to 80% prepayment, indicating high industry prosperity [10][11] Impact on Traditional Lithium Equipment Companies - The development of solid-state batteries presents valuation enhancement opportunities for traditional lithium equipment companies, which are involved in the construction of solid-state pilot lines [12] - Key segments include complete lines, dry processes, and isostatic pressing, with companies like Xian Dao Intelligent and Naco showing strong performance [12][13] Future Outlook for Equipment Companies - By 2026, it is expected that most lithium equipment companies will see increases in both order volume and net profit, with solid-state technology advancements likely to further enhance valuations [14]

格隆汇1月14日丨天奈科技(688116.SH)在互动平台表示，碳纳米管在固态电池中发挥多重关键作用：提 升电池的整体导电性能，通过添加碳纳米管从而形成连续纳米级导电网络提供良好的电荷传输路径；降 低界面阻抗，利用柔性结构填充电极与电解质间的空隙，减少界面电阻；改善机械性能，提高固态电解 质的抗拉伸强度和断裂韧性，同时缓冲电极材料的体积变化。公司已和主流研发固态/半固态电池生产 企业建立了稳定的合作关系。 ...

要点一：政策支持与行业信心提振 1. 工信部最新文件重申加快全固态电池及车端技术落地，明确国家支持立场，消除市场对项目推进的质疑。 2. 国家对固态电池项目的持续支持将确保项目验收和第二批企业支持不受影响，板块贝塔属性增强。 2. 26年全固态上车测试带动车载加压设备需求 3. 政策表态被视为重要催化剂，提振市场信心，此前板块因位置低和进展超预期已具备投资价值。 要点二：太空领域应用拓展 1. 日本与NASA等机构在太空环境中对全固态电池的测试显示高稳定性和低衰减，容量保持率超80%，表现 超预期。 2. 太空应用场景（如卫星供电）因固态电池的高能量密度和可靠性优势具备长期前景，代表重要方向。 3. 太空算力需求带动光伏发电，而固态电池作为储能装置可解决卫星背光阶段的供电问题。 要点三：2026年产业化方向 1. 2026年核心方向为固态电池上车，分两个阶段：年初产线招标放大和全固态电池量产过渡。 2. 技术需解决加压优化（材料掺杂、硫化物应用）和车载压力传导问题 要点四：固态设备招标 1. Q1头部电池厂（宁德时代、比亚迪等）将启动固态产线招标，单线规模预计达0.5G瓦时以上，设备 规格需提升。 往期推荐 ...

1月13日，蜂巢能源在第六届电池日上发布了搭载全球首创固态电解质隔膜转印技术的半固态电池体 系。 此外，依托仿形梯度热压工艺，固态涂层可紧密贴合极片，并与现有液态产线100%兼容，无需新增产 线即可量产。电芯自产热温度提升8℃，热失控起始温度提升5℃，整体热安全缓冲时间增加10%，热失 控概率下降25%。 据蜂巢能源介绍，该体系面向三元体系的安全痛点，其自研极性变换固态电解质隔膜使离子电导率提升 10%以上，200℃热收缩率下降20%，增强了高温安全性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the signing of 36 projects in Jiangning District, including a significant investment of 5.2 billion yuan in a solid-state lithium battery production base by Yunshi Weilan, which aims to achieve an annual production capacity of 15 GWh [1]. Group 1: Project Overview - The solid-state lithium battery production base project will focus on manufacturing solid-state batteries, battery packs, and energy storage equipment [1]. - The investment is led by Shandong Yunshi Weilan New Materials Co., Ltd., a joint venture established by Shandong Yunshi Forestry Development Co., Ltd. and Weilan New Energy, with respective stakes of 90% and 10% [2]. - The first production line of Yunshi Weilan is set to invest 1.2 billion yuan and will be located in the existing workshop of Weilan Haibo New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. in Zibo, aiming for rapid scale production [3]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Agreements - An investment cooperation agreement was signed between Weilan New Energy and Shanlin Group, focusing on leveraging their strengths in industrial resources, capital investment, and core technology in solid-state batteries [4]. - A procurement agreement for 4 GWh of solid-state battery cells and energy storage equipment was also established, with a total contract value of approximately 4 billion yuan [4]. Group 3: Product Development and Market Applications - Weilan New Energy's hybrid solid-liquid battery products cater to three main sectors: new energy vehicles, energy storage, and low-altitude economic power [4]. - Key products include a high-energy density power cell with 360 Wh/kg, capable of over 1000 km range, and a 280 Ah ultra-safe energy storage cell, both of which have commenced mass production and delivery [4]. - The company plans to achieve mass production of full solid-state batteries by around 2027, targeting an energy density of 400 Wh/kg [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Finnish startup Donut Lab has announced the release of a solid-state battery, claiming it has a cycle life of up to 100,000 times, an energy density of 400 Wh/kg, and a rapid charging capability of 5 minutes, which has surprised the market and raised questions about the competitive landscape in solid-state battery technology [1][3][5]. Group 1: Donut Lab's Solid-State Battery - Donut Lab's solid-state battery is claimed to have a cycle life of 100,000 times and an energy density of 400 Wh/kg, with a charging time of just 5 minutes [3][5]. - The company asserts it has the capability for gigawatt-hour level mass production and can supply globally [3]. - The announcement has caused concern among investors, questioning whether the solid-state battery's "D-Day" has arrived while others remain passive [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Competitor Responses - Despite the significant announcement, the response from global battery and automotive manufacturers, particularly Chinese companies, has been muted [5][6]. - Chinese companies may not be worried due to previous announcements of breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology by other firms like Nissan and Toyota, which have not yet materialized into market-ready products [6][10]. - The lack of immediate reaction from Chinese firms suggests confidence in their existing technology and market position [21][29]. Group 3: Challenges and Skepticism - There are doubts about the feasibility of Donut Lab's claims, particularly regarding the cycle life and cost of solid-state batteries, which are traditionally much higher than lithium-ion batteries [14][16]. - The solid-state battery industry faces significant challenges, including interface resistance, slow ion transport, high manufacturing costs, and low yield rates [18][20]. - The skepticism is further fueled by the lack of detailed specifications and pricing information from Donut Lab [20]. Group 4: China's Position in Solid-State Battery Development - China has a comprehensive and robust supply chain for electric vehicle batteries, with significant advancements in solid-state battery technology expected in the coming years [27][29]. - Major Chinese companies like CATL and BYD are planning to launch solid-state batteries with competitive energy densities and production timelines, indicating a strong domestic market focus [25][26]. - The Chinese market's scale and the established supply chain provide a competitive advantage, making it less likely for Chinese firms to be intimidated by new entrants like Donut Lab [22][29].

| 驰、宝马、奥迪、大众、福特、通用、斯特兰提斯、保时捷等 | | --- | | 众多外知名海外客户建立起了合作关系。 | | Q3、公司固态电池目前进展？ | | 公司固态电池当前已经实现了连续化的试生产，并且在试 | | 生产过程中展现出较好的一致性。 | | Q4、公司固态电池性能上有何特点或优势？ | | 公司固态电池具有较高的安全性，通过了第三方检测机构 | | 的针刺、加热和过充电等安全试验，以及锂电池国际航运和陆 | | 运所需的 UN38.3 认证。 | | 公司固态电池另一个特点是具有较好的耐高温性能，依靠 | | 自然散热，即可在较高温度条件下连续正常工作。公司固态电 | | 池的耐高温特性，将为公司固态电池在狭小空间和场景下的应 | | 用提供更优的适配性。 | | Q5、公司固态电池在材料端与其他厂商的主要差别在哪？ | | 电解质材料体系的配方是公司固态电池技术的核心商业 | | 秘密，也是公司 2018 年投入固态电池研发以来不断摸索和迭 | | 代的成果。同时，公司掌握了固态电池材料体系的工艺窗口， | | 可以根据不同客户要求进行方案的定制化开发，以匹配不同应 | | 用场景 ...