Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The spot price of live pigs has dropped rapidly due to limited downstream digestion capacity during the off - season of consumption, and the market's expectation of price increases from late July to early August may lead to more concentrated slaughtering and continued weak operation of the spot market. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 13,930 yuan/ton (a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton), in Sichuan is 13,500 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year), and in Guangdong is 15,440 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year) [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of the live pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 14,075 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 75 yuan/ton), 14,105 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton), and 14,390 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 10 yuan/ton) respectively [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live pig 2509 contract is 33,288 lots (an increase of 1463 lots compared to the previous day), with an open interest of 53,049 lots (a decrease of 1758 lots compared to the previous day); the trading volume of the 2511 contract is 12,422 lots (a decrease of 1590 lots), with an open interest of 49,996 lots (an increase of 1377 lots); the trading volume of the 2601 contract is 14,003 lots (a decrease of 30 lots), with an open interest of 41,852 lots (a decrease of 951 lots) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of the live pig 2509 contract is - 145 yuan/ton (a year - on - year increase of 125 yuan/ton) [1]. Market Logic - Group companies are actively reducing the weight of pigs recently. Due to the off - season of consumption and limited downstream digestion capacity, the spot price has dropped rapidly, indicating that the previous price increase relied more on inventory - building sentiment. The market's expectation of price increases from late July to early August may lead to more concentrated slaughtering and continued weak operation of the spot market. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, resulting in a weak reality and strong expectation situation, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view. A value of 0 indicates a neutral view [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets are expected to be mainly in a state of oscillatory operation. The short - term upward momentum of soybean meal is limited, and the deep - decline space after the correction is also restricted. Rapeseed meal is likely to follow the soybean meal to oscillate, and its ability to have an independent market is relatively weak. The monthly spread of soybean meal is expected to have some downward pressure, while that of rapeseed meal shows a rebound, but the rebound space is limited. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate [8]. - The trading strategy is to expect the market to be mainly in an oscillatory state for single - side trading, suggest expanding the MRM09 spread for arbitrage, and adopt a wait - and - see attitude for options [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Today, the US soybean futures showed a slight oscillatory trend with limited market changes. After the previous positive factors were fully reflected, there was some downward pressure recently, and the market gradually stabilized after the decline. The domestic soybean meal futures continued to decline, but the decline narrowed as the absolute price was relatively low and further negative factors were limited. Rapeseed meal also had a limited decline, and the market lacked new themes, continuing to be affected by soybean meal, with subsequent uncertainties remaining. The monthly spread of domestic soybean meal futures also showed a slight oscillation, and the downward space of the monthly spread was limited after the decline of the single - side price narrowed, but the spot pressure still existed. The monthly spread of rapeseed meal showed a rebound trend, mainly because the previous decline was relatively large and the further downward space was limited. However, since the near - term pressure on rapeseed meal was still obvious, the rebound space was expected to be limited [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis International Market - The new US soybean crop is generally bearish, and the upward space is significantly limited after the recent rebound. The new soybean market is mainly characterized by ample supply and limited support. As of the week ending July 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 70%, up from 68% in the previous week. As of the week ending July 24, the export inspection volume of old US soybean crops was 409,700 tons. The US soybean crushing data in June was good, with the NOPA - caliber soybean crushing volume reaching 185.709 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 5.76%, and the crushing profit rebounded. - In the previous week, Brazilian farmers accelerated their selling progress, but the overall progress was still relatively slow, and there was still some pressure expected in the future. The Brazilian soybean crushing situation has generally improved recently. The soybean crushing volume in May announced by abiove continued to increase month - on - month. The demand for soybean meal and soybean oil was generally good, and the crushing profit improved overall under the background of the rapid increase in soybean oil prices recently. However, crushing had limited effect on alleviating the supply pressure, and the subsequent demand improvement space was also relatively limited. Due to China's large volume of soybean purchases, Brazil is expected to still have room for export growth, and the market pressure is still relatively obvious. - The domestic soybean crushing volume in Argentina may improve in the future, mainly because the subsequent exports may decrease under the influence of tariffs. However, the current domestic crushing profit in Argentina is average, so the improvement space is still relatively limited. Overall, the supply pressure of the international soybean market is mainly concentrated in South America. Especially when the subsequent crushing in Argentina decreases, soybean exports may become more obvious, and Brazil has a large output, so the pressure remains obvious when the subsequent domestic crushing decreases [5]. Domestic Market - The domestic spot market continued to be in a relatively loose state. The oil refinery operating rate remained at a high level, the market supply was sufficient, the提货量 (pick - up volume) increased accordingly, and the inventory gradually accumulated. The overall spot market trading performance was average. As of July 25, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 2.2389 million tons, the operating rate was 62.94%, the soybean inventory was 6.4559 million tons, an increase of 33,500 tons or 0.52% from the previous week, and a year - on - year decrease of 10,700 tons or 0.17%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0431 million tons, an increase of 44,700 tons or 4.48% from the previous week, and a year - on - year decrease of 302,800 tons or 22.5%. - Recently, the domestic demand for rapeseed meal has continued to show a gradual weakening trend, and the oil refinery operating rate has decreased. However, the overall supply was sufficient, and the inventory of granular rapeseed meal remained at a high level, so the overall supply pressure still existed. Although there was uncertainty in the subsequent supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, the demand also weakened, and there was still some near - term pressure. Therefore, rapeseed meal is expected to be mainly in an oscillatory operation. As of the week ending July 25, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil refineries was 56,000 tons, and the operating rate this week was 14.93%. The rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil refineries was 137,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 19,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week [6]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The Sino - US negotiations in London have been completed, but the market has not provided much clear information. Due to the lack of clear macro - guidance, the market continues to be worried about the uncertainty of subsequent supply. From the perspective of recent international trade changes, there are still many overall uncertainties. However, as the market gradually stabilizes, the macro - level disturbances are decreasing. Since China still has a high demand for the US soybean market in the long - term, it is not easy to see a sharp decline in the short term, especially in the absence of macro - guidance [7]. 3.4 Price and Spread Data Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 3028, 2744, and 2983 respectively, with changes of - 13, - 7, and - 7. The spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao were - 90, - 140, - 140, and - 130 respectively, with changes of 0, 10, 20, and 20 compared to the previous day. - For rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 2379, 2372, and 2660 respectively, with changes of - 14, 2, and 0. The spot basis in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi were - 140, - 140, and - 150 respectively, with changes of 0, - 20, and - 20 compared to the previous day [4]. Monthly Spread - For soybean meal, the 59 - spread was - 239 (unchanged from the previous day), the 91 - spread was - 45 (an increase of 6 from the previous day), and the 15 - spread was 284 (a decrease of 6 from the previous day). - For rapeseed meal, the 59 - spread was - 288 (an increase of 2 from the previous day), the 91 - spread was 281 (an increase of 14 from the previous day), and the 15 - spread was 7 (a decrease of 16 from the previous day) [4]. Cross - Variety Futures Spread - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal for contract 01 was 649 (an increase of 1 from the previous day), and for contract 09 was 323 (a decrease of 7 from the previous day). The oil - to - meal ratio for contract 01 was 2.704 (an increase of 0.048 from the previous day) [4]. Spot Spread - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 604 (an increase of 27 from the previous day), the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was - 31 (a decrease of 34 from the previous day), and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal was 573 (an increase of 3 from the previous day) [4]. 3.5 Soybean Crushing Profit - The report provides the soybean crushing profit data from different origins (Argentina and Brazil) with different shipping dates, including CNF, CBOT price, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and the corresponding crushing profits (both on - the - spot and in the futures market) and their changes compared to the previous day [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the reports. Core Views - No clear core views are presented in the reports. The documents mainly contain data on various financial products such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping, and trading calendars. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures (Doc 1) - **IF期现价差**: The latest value is -13.82, a change of -2.66 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 32.70% and an all - time quantile of 30.10% [1]. - **IH期现价差**: The latest value is 3.03, a change of 1.75 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 74.50% and an all - time quantile of 75.00% [1]. - **IC期现价差**: The latest value is -101.42 [1]. - **IM期现价差**: The latest value is -27.17, a change of -127.98 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 70.00% and an all - time quantile of 9.60% [1]. - **跨期价差**: There are various values for different contracts (e.g., IF跨期价差, IH跨期价差, IC跨期价差, IM跨期价差) with corresponding changes and quantiles [1]. - **跨品种比值**: For example, IC/IF is 1.5095, a change of -0.0007 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 84.40% and an all - time quantile of 66.70% [1]. Treasury Bond Futures (Doc 2) - **基差**: TS基差 is 1.5937, TF基差 is 1.4203, T基差 is 1.4264, and TL基差 is 1.3256 on 2025 - 07 - 28, with corresponding changes and historical quantiles [2]. - **跨期价差**: Different contracts (TS跨期价差, TF跨期价差, T跨期价差, TL跨期价差) have their own values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **跨品种价差**: For example, TS - TF is -3.3580 on 2025 - 07 - 28, with a change of -0.0980 [2]. Precious Metals (Doc 4) - **期货收盘价**: Domestic and foreign futures contracts (AU2510, AG2510, COMEX黄金主力合约, COMEX白银主力合约) have their closing prices, changes, and percentage changes from different dates [4]. - **现货价格**: London gold, London silver, 上金所黄金T + D, and 上金所白银T + D have their prices, changes, and percentage changes [4]. - **基差**: For example, 黄金TD - 沪金主力 is -3.20, with a change of 0.51 from the previous value, and a 1 - year historical quantile of 23.60% [4]. - **比价**: CONEX종(暗 is 86.46, a change of -0.65 from the previous value, with a percentage change of -0.75% [4]. - **利率与汇率**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.42, a change of 0.02 from the previous value, with a percentage change of 0.5% [4]. - **库存与持仓**: 上期所黄金库存 is 30258, with no change from the previous value [4]. Container Shipping (Doc 6) - **现货报价**: Shipping rates from Shanghai to Europe for different shipping companies (MAERSK马士基, CMA达飞, etc.) have their prices, changes, and percentage changes on 2025 - 07 - 29 compared to 2025 - 07 - 28 [6]. - **集运指数**: SCFIS (欧洲航线) settlement price index is 2316.56 on 2025 - 07 - 28, a change of -83.9 from 2025 - 07 - 21, with a percentage change of -3.50% [6]. - **期货价格及基差**: EC2602 has a price of 1541.0 on 2025 - 07 - 28, a change of 22.2 from 2025 - 07 - 25, with a percentage change of 1.46% [6]. - **基本面数据**: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3272.71 on 2025 - 07 - 29, with no change from the previous day [6]. Trading Calendar (Doc 7) - **海外数据/资讯**: At 22:00, there will be data on US June JOLTs job openings (in millions) and US July Conference Board consumer confidence index [7]. - **国内数据/资讯**: For example, at 17:00, there will be data on the arrival forecast of MEG in the main ports of East China (in million tons) [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the reports. The documents mainly provide various data on different futures and related market indicators. Summary by Category 1. Stock Index Futures - **Price - Spread Data**: On July 29, 2025, the IF, IH, IC, and IM futures showed different values in terms of spot - futures spreads, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios. For example, the IF spot - futures spread was - 13.82, with a change of - 2.66 from the previous day, and its 1 - year historical quantile was 32.70% [1]. - **Ratio Data**: Cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., also had specific values and changes. For instance, the IC/IF ratio was 1.5095, with a change of - 0.0007 [1]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: As of July 28, 2025, the IRR of TS was 1.5937, and the basis of TF was 1.4203, with corresponding changes and historical quantiles [2]. - **Inter - period and Cross - variety Spreads**: Different inter - period spreads (e.g., current - quarter to next - quarter) and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF) had specific values and historical quantiles [2]. 3. Precious Metals - **Price Changes**: From July 25 to July 28, 2025, domestic and foreign precious metal futures and spot prices changed. For example, the AU2510 contract price decreased from 777.32 to 774.78 yuan/gram, a decline of - 0.33% [4]. - **Basis and Ratio**: The basis and ratio of precious metals also changed. For example, the gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was - 3.20, with a change of 0.51 from the previous value, and its 1 - year historical quantile was 23.60% [4]. 4. Container Shipping Industry - **Spot Quotes**: On July 29, 2025, the spot quotes of shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route had different changes. For example, MAERSK's quote increased by 3.03% to 3235 dollars/FEU [6]. - **Index Data**: Shipping indices such as SCFIS and SCFI showed different degrees of decline. For instance, SCFIS (European route) decreased by - 3.50% from July 21 to July 28, 2025 [6]. 5. Trading Calendar - **Overseas Data**: On July 29, 2025, at 22:00, data on US June JOLTs job vacancies and US July Conference Board consumer confidence index were to be released [7]. - **Domestic Data**: Data on various domestic commodities such as manganese silicon, iron ore, polyester, glass, and polysilicon were expected to be updated on the same day, including inventory, port throughput, and production - sales ratios [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures. They provide detailed data on price differences, ratios, and related market indicators, helping investors understand market trends and potential investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The reports provide detailed data on the price differences of various stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. For example, the IF term - spot price difference is -3.33, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 34.10% and a full - historical percentile of 34.80% [1]. - **Cross - period Price Differences**: Different cross - period price differences are presented, such as the difference between the next - month and current - month contracts, and the difference between the quarterly - month and current - month contracts for each index futures [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios between different stock index futures, like IC/IF, IC/IH, and IF/IH, are also provided, along with their historical percentiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and IRR**: Data on the basis and implied repo rate (IRR) of treasury bond futures, including TS, TF, T, and TL, are given. For example, the TS basis on 2025 - 07 - 25 is 1.4667, with a change of 0.0162 from the previous day and a historical percentile of 19.10% [2]. - **Cross - period Price Differences**: Cross - period price differences for different contracts of treasury bond futures, such as the difference between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, are presented [2]. - **Cross - variety Price Differences**: Price differences between different treasury bond futures, like TS - TF, TS - T, and TF - T, are also provided [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The reports show the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metal futures, including AU2510, AG2510, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver, as well as their changes and price - to - spot differences [4]. - **Price Ratios and Spreads**: Ratios between gold and silver futures, such as COMEX gold/silver and SHFE gold/silver, and spreads between different gold and silver products, like gold TD - SHFE gold and silver TD - SHFE silver, are provided [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Information on interest rates (e.g., 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 2 - year US Treasury bond yield) and exchange rates (e.g., US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate) is also included [4]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes for container shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies, such as MAERSK, CMA, and MSC, are provided, along with their changes [6]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes, including SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US West route), and Shanghai export container freight indexes, such as SCFI composite index and SCFI (European), are presented, along with their changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of container shipping futures contracts, like EC2602, EC2604, and EC2508 (the main contract), and the basis of the main contract are provided, along with their changes [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Data on container shipping fundamentals, including global container shipping capacity supply, port on - time rates, and overseas economic indicators (e.g., Eurozone composite PMI, EU consumer confidence index), are also given [6]. Trading Calendar - **Overseas Data/Information**: Information on overseas data and information sources for different sectors, such as Brazilian secex weekly reports in the agricultural sector and USDA export inspection and crop growth data in the US, is provided [7]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Domestic data and information sources for different sectors, including black and non - ferrous metals (e.g., global manganese ore shipments, iron ore shipments), energy and chemicals (e.g., MEG port inventory in East China, Shandong local refinery crude oil arrivals), and special commodities (e.g., glass sales - to - production ratio, polysilicon production and inventory), are presented [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Each report presents data and analysis on different futures markets, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping, and a trading calendar, without a unified core view. 3. Summary by Report Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **IF, IH, IC, and IM Futures**: Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles of spot - futures spreads and inter - period spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM futures. For example, the IF spot - futures spread is 37.60% with a change of - 9.16 [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Provides cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 1000/CSI 300, etc., along with their changes and percentiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **IRR and Basis**: Shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing for the implied repo rate (IRR) and basis of TS, TF, and TL Treasury bond futures [2]. - **Inter - Period and Cross - Variety Spreads**: Presents inter - period spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF) for different Treasury bond futures, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Reports domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and percentage changes for gold and silver on July 22 and 21. For example, the AU2510 contract rose 0.40% to 784.84 yuan/gram on July 22 [3]. - **Basis, Ratios, Yields, and Inventories**: Provides basis values, ratios (e.g., COMEX gold/silver), yields of US Treasury bonds, the US dollar index, and inventory data for precious metals, along with their changes [3]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes and Indexes**: Gives spot quotes for Shanghai - Europe shipping prices and various container shipping indexes (e.g., SCFIS, SCFI), along with their changes and percentage changes [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Presents futures prices and basis values for container shipping futures contracts, along with their changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on shipping capacity supply, port performance, export volume, and overseas economic indicators, along with their changes [5]. Trading Calendar - **Overseas and Domestic Data/Information**: Lists overseas and domestic economic indicators and financial events to be released on July 23, including time, data source, and relevant details [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views There are no explicit core views presented in the reports. The reports mainly provide data on various futures, including price differentials, closing prices, and related indicators. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spread - **IF期现价差**: 32.30%, down 16.75, 5.94 in historical 1 - year percentile, 25.90% in all - time percentile [1] - **IH期现价差**: 2.48, up 5.34, 74.10% in historical 1 - year percentile, 72.20% in all - time percentile [1] - **IC期现价差**: - 98.81, up 5.65, 8.10% in historical 1 - year percentile, 2.80% in all - time percentile [1] - **IM期现价差**: - 138.47, up 6.80, 90.00% in historical 1 - year percentile, 8.20% in all - time percentile [1] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **TS基差 (2025 - 07 - 18)**: 1.5570, up 0.0032, 22.20% in listed - since percentile [2] - **TF基差 (2025 - 07 - 18)**: 1.6510, up 0.0085, 44.60% in listed - since percentile [2] - **T基差 (2025 - 07 - 18)**: 1.3735, up 0.0708, 46.80% in listed - since percentile [2] - **TL基差 (2025 - 07 - 18)**: 1.7138, up 0.2243, 60.70% in listed - since percentile [2] 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **AU2510合约 (7月17日)**: 776.28 yuan/g, down 0.38, - 0.05% [4] - **AG2510合约 (7月17日)**: 9166 yuan/kg, up 14, 0.15% [4] - **COMEX黄金主力合约 (7月17日)**: 3345.40, down 8.80, - 0.26% [4] - **COMEX白银主力合约 (7月17日)**: 38.44 dollars/ounce, up 0.31, 0.81% [4] 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures - **SCFIS (欧洲航线) (7月14日)**: 2421.94, up 163.9, 7.26% [7] - **SCFIS (美西航线) (7月14日)**: 1266.59, down 291.2, - 18.69% [7] - **EC2602 (7月18日)**: 1495.1, up 9.4, 0.63% [7] - **EC2510 (主力) (7月18日)**: 1613.0, up 31.7, 2.00% [7] 3.5 Trading Calendar - **海外数据/资讯**: Include US 6 - month Conference Board Leading Index monthly rate, Brazil secex report, USDA export inspection and crop growth data [9] - **国内数据/资讯**: Cover global manganese ore shipments, iron ore shipments and arrivals, SMM electrolytic copper social inventory, etc [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The reports present daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping industry futures, as well as relevant spot prices, spreads, ratios, and other market - related information [1][2][4][6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Spreads**: On July 18, 2025, the F period - spot spread was 19.60% with a change of - 22.69 compared to the previous day. The IC period - spot spread was - 104.46, a change of - 93.87. Different cross - period and cross - variety spreads also had specific values and changes [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Price Spreads**: On July 18, 2025, the TS basis was 1.6630 with a change of - 0.0146. Different cross - period and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures also had corresponding values and changes [2] Precious Metal Futures - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, 2025, the AU2510 contract closed at 776.28 yuan/gram, a decrease of 0.38 compared to the previous day. The COMEX gold主力合约 closed at 3345.40 dollars/ounce, a decrease of 8.80. Different basis and price ratios also had specific values and changes [4] Container Shipping Industry Futures - **Spot Quotes**: On July 18, 2025, the Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate reference for MAERSK was 3066 dollars/FEU with no change. The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on July 14 was 2421.94, an increase of 163.9 compared to July 7 [6] - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity supply on July 18 was 3271.40 million TEU with no change. The export punctuality rate (short - term) decreased by 18.66% [6] Data/Information Calendar - **Overseas**: On July 18, 2025, at 16:00, the euro - zone May seasonally adjusted current account (in billions of euros) was to be released; at 22:00, the US July one - year inflation rate expectation initial value and the US July University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value were to be released [8] - **Domestic**: Various economic indicators of different industries such as agriculture, black and non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, and special commodities were to be released at different times [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal futures market is showing a strong upward trend, but the continuous upward space for US soybeans is limited, so the upward space for soybean meal is also expected to be limited. Given the large subsequent export pressure from Brazil and the good weather conditions in US soybean-producing areas, the rebound space for the futures market is also expected to be limited [7]. - The fundamental situation of rapeseed meal has changed little recently. Due to concerns about future supply and the current price already reflecting potential supply shortages, it is expected that rapeseed meal will not show a significantly strong trend. The narrowing space for the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is limited, and after this round of price increases, rapeseed meal may still face some pressure, with the price difference expected to widen overall [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the US soybean futures market showed a significant upward trend. Although there was no clear driving factor, the previous sharp decline had fully reflected the negative factors. After a marginal improvement in demand, the domestic soybean meal futures market also showed a significant increase, mainly driven by cost factors. The domestic rapeseed meal futures market also rose significantly, influenced by the increase in soybean meal prices and concerns about future supply shortages due to Canada's tariff increase on Chinese steel [4]. - The monthly price difference of domestic soybean meal futures showed a strengthening trend, while rapeseed meal remained strongly supported. Overall, the market is still worried about the future supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, but the current prices have already fully reflected these concerns, making further price increases difficult [4]. Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The adjustment of the new US soybean balance sheet is generally negative. Although US soybean exports were lowered, soybean crushing was increased, resulting in a slight increase in ending stocks. As of the week ending July 13, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans reached 70%. As of the week ending July 10, the export inspection volume of old US soybeans was 147,000 tons. The soybean crushing data for June in the US was good, with the NOPA's soybean crushing volume reaching 185.709 million bushels, a year-on-year increase of 5.76%, and the crushing profit rebounded [5]. - **South America**: Brazilian farmers' selling progress has been relatively slow, and the overall selling progress is at a historically low level for this period. Recently, the selling progress has continued to slow down, and price pressure is starting to show. The recent soybean crushing volume in Brazil has decreased. Although the soybean crushing volume in April, as reported by abiove, was relatively good, the crushing profit remained relatively low. Due to large Chinese purchases, the domestic crushing profit in Brazil has weakened. In this context, Brazil may further increase its soybean exports [5]. - **Argentina**: The domestic soybean crushing volume in Argentina may improve in the future. Although the previous crushing volume decreased due to capacity constraints, the prices of terminal products have begun to stabilize, and soybean exports may increase [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market for soybean meal remains relatively loose. The operating rate of oil mills has continued to increase, leading to sufficient market supply and increased提货量. Inventory has gradually accumulated, but the overall spot market transactions have been average, and the market's acceptance of current prices is also average. As of July 11, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52%. The soybean inventory was 6.5749 million tons, an increase of 210,900 tons from the previous week, or 3.31%, and a year-on-year increase of 661,400 tons, or 11.18%. The soybean meal inventory was 886,200 tons, an increase of 63,800 tons from the previous week, or 7.76%, and a year-on-year decrease of 333,100 tons, or 27.32% [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has recently shown a gradual weakening trend. Although the operating rate of oil mills has decreased, the overall supply remains sufficient. With the decline in demand and the high level of granular rapeseed meal, there is still supply pressure. Although there is uncertainty about the future supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, demand has also weakened, and there is still some pressure in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that rapeseed meal will mainly fluctuate [6]. Macro Analysis - The Sino-US negotiations in London have been completed, but the market has not received clear information. Due to the lack of clear macro guidance, the market continues to be concerned about the uncertainty of future supply. Although there are still many uncertainties in international trade, as the market gradually stabilizes, macro disturbances are decreasing. However, since China's long-term demand for US soybeans remains high, the price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term, especially in the absence of macro guidance [7]. Trading Strategies - **Single Position**: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Conduct a reverse spread on RM91 [8]. - **Options**: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [8].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Commodity Research Institute Agricultural Product Research Report - Meal Daily Report" [1][2] - Report Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The US soybean new - crop balance sheet adjustment is overall bearish, with a slight increase in ending stocks. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets lack clear drivers, and the markets are mainly in a narrow - range oscillation. The rapeseed meal market has concerns about future supply, but there are also uncertainties [4][5][7] - The international soybean market has supply pressure, mainly from South America. The domestic soybean meal spot is relatively loose, and the rapeseed meal demand is gradually weakening [5][6] - Macro - level information is unclear, and the short - term decline of the soybean market is limited. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal spreads are expected to widen, and the spreads between different contract months may face pressure [7] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean futures showed a slight upward trend. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures generally declined slightly. The soybean meal inter - month spreads continued to decline, while the rapeseed meal spreads were relatively stable [4] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The US soybean new - crop balance sheet adjustment is bearish. As of July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 70%. The US soybean exports were lowered, but the crushing was raised, and the ending stocks slightly increased. The Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, and the recent selling has further slowed down. The Brazilian soybean crushing has decreased, and the Argentine domestic crushing may improve, but soybean exports may increase [5] Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal spot market is relatively loose, with increasing oil - mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and increasing inventory. The rapeseed meal demand is gradually weakening, and although the supply is also uncertain, it is expected to be in a range - bound operation [6] Group 6: Macro - level Analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London has ended without clear information. The market has concerns about future supply uncertainty. The international trade has many uncertainties, and the soybean market is not likely to decline significantly in the short term [7] Group 7: Logic Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures oscillate in a narrow range, supported by future supply uncertainty. The US soybean futures have limited decline and rebound space. The inter - month spreads may face pressure but have limited decline space. The rapeseed meal is affected by supply uncertainty, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [7] Group 8: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [8] - Arbitrage: RM91 reverse arbitrage [8] - Options: Wait and see [8]