期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 当前中美达成框架协议，但关税细节仍未公布，宏观不确定性仍存。25/26 年度全球棉花供需仍偏宽松，美棉新年度平衡表预计改 善有限，ICE 美棉预计下半年维持震荡运行，但仍需关注后续各主产国天气及贸易政策变化。国内郑棉在库存偏紧预期影响下短期 走势偏强，但新年度疆棉预期丰产，贸易战令需求也难有爬升，新棉集中上市后棉价压力较大…… 丰产预期压制，关注宏观扰动 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 期货研究报告 | 棉花半年报 2025-7-6 丰产预期压制，关注宏观扰动 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：USDA6月报：25/26年度产量2547.2万吨，消费2563.8万吨，期末库存1672.1 万吨。ICAC6月报：25/26年度产量2600万吨，消费2570万吨。海关：5月纺织品服装出口 262.1亿美元，同比0.6%。5月份我国棉花进口4万吨，同比减少86.3%；棉纱进口10万吨， 同比减少16.67%。农村部6月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期 末库存823万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15154，基差1414（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for cotton [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The international cotton market is expected to maintain a low - level sideways pattern in the second half of the year, with an estimated operating range of 65 - 80 cents per pound. The domestic cotton market is also expected to have a low - level sideways pattern, with an estimated range of 12,500 - 14,500 yuan per ton. Attention should be paid to factors such as weather, trade policies, and macro - dynamics [2][3] - For investment strategies, it is recommended to focus on short - term opportunities to short the January contract on rallies and conduct band trading within the estimated range. Also, pay attention to potential reverse arbitrage opportunities between November and January contracts [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. First Half of the Year: Trade Wars Intensified Cotton Market Fluctuations - In the first quarter, the external market was weakly sideways with a downward shift in the center, while the domestic market was range - bound and relatively resilient. The international market faced a more relaxed supply - demand situation, and the trade war cast a shadow over demand. The ICE cotton price fluctuated weakly around the cost of US cotton, with an operating range of 63 - 69 cents per pound. The domestic market had support from low raw material inventories in downstream spinning enterprises and low social inventories of cotton yarn, but was also constrained by unhedged and unpriced resources of ginning factories and concerns about demand due to the trade war. The Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated in the range of 13,300 - 13,900 yuan per ton [16] - In the second quarter, trade policy changes led to intensified fluctuations in both the external and domestic markets. The external market was relatively stable, while the domestic market was more volatile. The price difference between the domestic and international markets first narrowed and then widened. Overall, the domestic market was stronger than the external market [17][18][19] 3.2. International Cotton Fundamental Situation 3.2.1. United States - The USDA may have limited room to further lower the production estimate for the 2025/26 US cotton season. The actual sown area may be lower than the intended area, and the abandonment rate is expected to be between 10% - 20%. The estimated production range is 2.9 - 3.265 million tons [22][23][25] - The export target for the 2024/25 US cotton season has been basically achieved, but the export contract signing for the 2025/26 season has been slow. As of June 12, the cumulative export contract volume for the 2025/26 season was 378,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year decrease [37][38] - The inventory - to - use ratio of US cotton in the 2025/26 season is expected to decline year - on - year but remain at a moderately high historical level. The estimated inventory - to - use ratio is between 29.3% - 30.8%, and the ICE cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 65 - 85 cents per pound [53] 3.2.2. India - The monsoon rainfall is expected to be abundant, and there is a possibility of an increase in the planting area and production. The USDA's estimates of India's cotton planting area and production may be underestimated [60][62] - The net import volume of Indian cotton in the 2025/26 season may continue to increase. Attention should be paid to the US - India trade negotiations and the inventory digestion progress of the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) [68] 3.2.3. Brazil - Brazil's cotton production in 2025 is expected to reach a record high. The Conab has continuously raised its production estimate, and the latest estimate is 3.915 million tons, a 6.5% year - on - year increase [76] 3.2.4. Global - The global supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 season is not expected to be tight. The USDA's subsequent estimates of global supply and demand may be adjusted to a more relaxed direction. The estimated global cotton production may be revised upwards by 400,000 - 600,000 tons or more, and the consumption may remain stable or slightly decline [84][87][89] 3.2.5. International Cotton Market Fundamental Summary and Market Outlook - It is expected that the cotton market will maintain a low - level sideways pattern in the second half of the year, with an estimated operating range of 65 - 80 cents per pound. Attention should be paid to factors such as weather, trade policies, and macro - dynamics [98] 3.3. Domestic Cotton Fundamental Situation 3.3.1. The Planting Area of Xinjiang Cotton has Expanded in the 2025/26 Season - The planting area of Xinjiang cotton has expanded due to planting structure adjustment and the reclamation of new land. The estimated increase in the national cotton planting area is between 1.7% - 3.3% [105] 3.3.2. Ginning Factories may Remain Rational in New Cotton Purchases - Ginning factories are expected to purchase new cotton rationally. The initial purchase price of seed cotton is expected to be flat or slightly lower year - on - year and then fluctuate weakly. The purchase price of cottonseed is expected to be higher than that of last year [110][111][112] 3.3.3. Commercial Inventory of Old Cotton has been Reduced Rapidly - The commercial inventory of old cotton has been reduced rapidly, which has led to concerns about a potential shortage during the transition between the old and new cotton seasons [3] 3.3.4. Registered Warehouse Receipts - Attention should be paid to the outflow of warehouse receipts in inland warehouses. If the warehouse receipts cannot be digested, there may still be reverse arbitrage opportunities between November and January contracts [4] 3.3.5. Import Volume of Cotton and Cotton Yarn has Decreased - The import volume of cotton and cotton yarn in the 2024/25 season has decreased [3] 3.3.6. Trade Wars and Textile Demand - Trade wars and the uncertain trade policies have cast a shadow over the demand for cotton. The downstream textile industry is in a slack season, and the demand in the second half of the year may be weaker than that of last year [2][3] 3.3.7. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand situation in the 2024/25 season was tight, while the 2025/26 season may be a year of easy inventory accumulation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 2025/26 season is expected to have a relatively loose supply - demand pattern. Although the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow compared to the previous year, the upward movement of cotton prices is difficult due to factors such as the expected high - yield in some major producing countries, geopolitical conflicts, and the expected slowdown of the global economy [3][8]. - In the international market, the center of the ICE US cotton futures price in the 2025/26 season is expected to move slightly higher than in the first half of the year, but the increase is limited, and it will generally operate within a range. Attention should be paid to macro and weather disturbances [8]. - In the domestic market, the bottom of the cotton price may have emerged, but the rebound of the cotton price is under pressure due to the high - yield expectation, and the upward space is relatively limited. The center of the Zhengzhou cotton futures price in the second half of the year may move slightly higher, but the space is expected to be limited [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Global**: The USDA June report predicts that the global cotton output in the 2025/26 season will be 25.472 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 639,000 tons. However, the market believes that the USDA underestimates the global cotton output, and the actual output decline may be lower [3][38]. - **US**: The planting area of US cotton this year has decreased by about 10 - 15% year - on - year. As of June 17, the area of US cotton affected by D1 - D4 level drought accounted for 3%, a week - on - week decrease of 3 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6 percentage points. The good and excellent rate of US cotton is 48%, lower than the same period last year but higher than the performance during the harvest period last year. It is expected that the final output of US cotton this year will be basically the same as last year [3]. - **China**: Most of the new domestic cotton is in the budding and flowering stages, and the weather conditions are relatively suitable. It is a market consensus that the planting area has increased year - on - year, and the probability of a high - yield this year is relatively large [3]. 3.2 Demand - **Global**: The USDA June report predicts that the global cotton consumption in the 2025/26 season will be 25.639 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 263,000 tons. However, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts and the expected slowdown of the global economic growth, the future uncertainty is still relatively large [4]. - **China**: From January to May, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitwear, and textiles in China were 613.84 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. The cumulative retail sales of clothing products from January to May were 443.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The year - on - year increase in retail sales of textile and clothing products was lower than that of total social retail sales. As of the week of June 20, the comprehensive load of yarn was 53.88%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.24 percentage points; the load of pure cotton yarn mills was 52.66%, a year - on - year increase of 5.56 percentage points; the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 49.28%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.42 percentage points; the load of pure cotton grey cloth was 45.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.74 percentage points [4]. 3.3 Import and Export - **US Cotton Exports**: As of June 13, the total signing volume of US cotton exports in the 2024/25 season was 2.731 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 188,000 tons. The signing volume of exports to China was 169,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.015 million tons. The proportion of US cotton exports to China was only about 6%, reaching a historical low [5]. - **China's Imports**: In May, China's cotton imports were 40,000 tons, a new low in recent years, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons. In May, the import volume of cotton yarn was 100,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons [5]. - **China's Exports**: In May 2025, the monthly export value of China's textile yarns, fabrics, and their products was 12.631 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.98%. From January to May, the cumulative export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and their products was 58.476 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 13.578 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The cumulative export from January to April was 58.195 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% [5]. 3.4 Inventory - **China**: As of the end of June, China's commercial cotton inventory was 3.1269 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 331,800 tons; the industrial inventory was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons; the total was 4.057 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 342,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 300,000 tons. As of the week of June 20, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.14 days, a year - on - year decrease of 2.88 days; the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 32.98 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.54 days. As of the week of June 21, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 27.38 days, a year - on - year increase of 5.2 days; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 35.22 days, a year - on - year decrease of 10.88 days. As of the week of June 20, the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 5.94 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.34 days; the inventory of pure cotton grey cloth was 33.96 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.18 days [6]. 3.5 Price - The spot price of pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn has fallen more than the futures price of cotton yarn. On June 27, 2025, the closing price of cotton yarn was 20,105 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 390 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 1.90%. The price of pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 20,380 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1,920 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 8.61% [29][31]. - The basis of cotton yarn has fluctuated and declined. On June 27, 2025, the basis of cotton yarn was 275 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 1,530 yuan/ton [33][35].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年6月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：USDA6月报：25/26年度产量2547.2万吨，消费2563.8万吨，期末库存 1672.1万吨。ICAC6月报：25/26年度产量2600万吨，消费2570万吨。海关：5月纺织品 服装出口262.1亿美元，同比0.6%。5月份我国棉花进口4万吨，同比减少86.3%；棉纱 进口10万吨，同比减少16.67%。农村部6月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨， 消费740万吨，期末库存823万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14894，基差1429（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, both domestic and international cotton markets currently lack obvious upward drivers and are likely to maintain a volatile trend [2][3][68] - It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities under the expectation of a looser domestic supply after October, specifically the Zhengzhou Cotton Futures 11 - 1 reverse spread [3][70] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 2025 H1 Cotton Futures Market Review - In H1 2025, Zhengzhou Cotton Futures mainly showed a volatile trend, with fluctuations mainly affected by the sentiment of the domestic financial market driven by macro - factors. There was a rebound before the Spring Festival, a sharp decline after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival due to the US tariff policy, and another rebound after the China - US peace talks in May [6] 2025 H2 Global Cotton Supply - Demand Situation Analysis Global Cotton Supply - In H2 2025, global cotton supply is expected to remain abundant. The bumper harvests of Brazilian and Australian cotton have laid the foundation for a loose supply. The market will mainly focus on US cotton production and also consider other major producing countries. Only when the combined production reduction of major producing countries exceeds expectations will the global supply tighten in H1 2026 [7][8][9] - **Brazil**: In 2025, Brazilian cotton production continued to increase, but the rising cost may slow down the area growth in 2026. The export situation in H2 2025 will affect farmers' planting willingness in 2026 [12][13][15] - **US**: The area and yield of US cotton in the 2025/26 season are uncertain. It is necessary to wait for the area outlook report at the end of June and pay attention to the weather from June to August. If the yield is flat year - on - year, the total supply will increase, and exports are expected to rebound. The export is also affected by economic and trade negotiations [20][23][25] - **Other Major Producing Countries**: The cotton production of India, Pakistan, Turkey, and Australia in the 2025/26 season is uncertain. If the production decreases by more than 400,000 tons year - on - year as estimated by USDA, it will benefit the exports of Brazil and the US, mainly in H1 2026 [30][32] Global Cotton Demand - From the macro - environment to micro - data, there is no optimistic outlook for global cotton demand. The instability of the global economy and international trade has a negative impact on cotton demand. The terminal's replenishment demand is not optimistic, and the direct import demand mainly depends on China [35][37][39] 2025 H2 China Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis China Cotton Supply - The market is worried that the domestic cotton inventory will be tight at the end of the 2024/25 season, but the inventory reduction speed may slow down from June to September. The new - year cotton production in Xinjiang is expected to remain high, and the national cotton area is also expected to increase [47][50][51] China Cotton Consumption - Since the 2024/25 season, the apparent consumption of domestic cotton has been better than expected. As long as the cotton price remains low, the demand in H2 2025 will remain stable. The terminal demand for textile and clothing has slowed down in terms of domestic sales and changed in terms of exports. The direct demand for cotton has increased due to capacity expansion and low prices [54][62][64]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年6月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：USDA6月报：25/26年度产量2547.2万吨，消费2563.8万吨，期末库存 1672.1万吨。ICAC6月报：25/26年度产量2600万吨，消费2570万吨。海关：5月纺织品 服装出口262.1亿美元，同比0.6%。5月份我国棉花进口4万吨，同比减少86.3%；棉纱 进口10万吨，同比减少16.67%。农村部5月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨， 消费740万吨，期末库存853万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14857，基差1317（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年6月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：USDA6月报：25/26年度产量2547.2万吨，消费2563.8万吨，期末库存 1672.1万吨。ICAC6月报：25/26年度产量2600万吨，消费2570万吨。海关：5月纺织品 服装出口262.1亿美元，同比0.6%。4月份我国棉花进口6万吨，同比减少82.2%；棉纱 进口12万吨，同比减少1.4%。农村部5月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消 费740万吨，期末库存853万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14862，基差1337（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cotton futures prices have significantly increased due to improved macroeconomic sentiment and accelerated commercial inventory depletion, leading to expectations of tighter supply before the new cotton harvest [2][3]. Group 1: Cotton Price Trends - On June 9, cotton futures prices surged, with the main contract reaching a three-week high of 13,550 yuan/ton, closing at 13,495 yuan/ton, marking a daily increase of 1.09% [2]. - Since April 9, cotton futures prices have shown a cumulative increase of 6% after initially declining [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - As of the end of May, China's commercial cotton inventory stood at 3.459 million tons, a decrease of 694,000 tons from the end of April, with monthly reductions exceeding 600,000 tons since March [3]. - Retail sales in April for clothing, shoes, and textiles reached 108.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, indicating strong domestic demand [3]. Group 3: Supply Factors - Domestic cotton production is expected to increase, with the planting area in Xinjiang projected to grow in 2025, supported by favorable climate conditions [4]. - In contrast, U.S. cotton planting area is expected to decrease by 12% in 2025, with the main cotton-producing state, Texas, seeing an 8% reduction [5]. Group 4: Global Cotton Market Outlook - The USDA forecasts a global cotton production increase of 1.76 million tons to 26.36 million tons for the 2024/25 season, while U.S. cotton production is expected to rise by 510,000 tons to 3.14 million tons [6]. - Recent U.S. cotton sales have been sluggish, with cumulative contracts down 6.8% year-on-year as of May 29 [6]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that investors should monitor macroeconomic impacts, cotton supply and demand dynamics, and weather conditions, as these factors will significantly influence cotton prices [7]. - Short-term cotton futures prices are expected to fluctuate between 13,000 and 13,800 yuan/ton, with potential upward pressure from low inventory levels [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All strategies for cotton, sugar, and pulp are rated as neutral [3][7][10] Core Views - The cotton market is affected by multiple factors including US policies, global supply - demand balance, and domestic production and demand. The price is expected to be volatile with a potential for a second dip [2][3] - The sugar market is facing a shift from global supply shortage to surplus. Zhengzhou sugar mainly follows the trend of raw sugar, and its price is influenced by Brazilian production and domestic import [6][7] - The pulp market is affected by macro - factors, supply - demand relationship, and tariff uncertainties. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,260 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,445 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,553 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 1st, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 66%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. The budding rate was 8%, the same as last year and 1 point higher than the five - year average. The good - to - excellent rate was 49%, 11 points lower than last year and 1 point higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and closed lower. The US tariff policy is uncertain, and the domestic economic stimulus effect needs to be observed [2] - The USDA has adjusted the global cotton supply - demand balance for the 25/26 season, but there are still many uncertainties. The new - season US cotton planting area has decreased, and the sowing progress is slow, but the drought in the main producing areas has improved [2] - In China, the commercial cotton inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the new - season planting area is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is in the off - season with insufficient new orders [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The key lies in the time when downstream demand decline is transmitted to the upstream [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,732 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,090 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [4] - India's sugar inventory at the end of the 2024 - 25 season is estimated to be about 4865,000 tons, and the 2025 - 26 season is expected to see a strong production recovery with an estimated output of about 35 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to be weak. The raw sugar price has stopped falling, but the new - season Brazilian production is expected to increase, and the global supply in the 25/26 season is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [6] - In China, the drought in Guangxi has been basically relieved, and the short - term fundamentals are favorable. However, the weak external market and expected increase in long - term import pressure limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar [6] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended, with a focus on Brazilian production and domestic import rhythm [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2507 contract was 5,304 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-2.03%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,200 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,375 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [8] - Yesterday, the spot price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable, with some price adjustments in individual varieties [8] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the pulp futures price fluctuated and declined. The macro - environment has a significant impact on the pulp market, and the tariff risk has been temporarily alleviated [9] - The cost support of pulp has weakened, the supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is at a high level. The downstream demand is weak, and the off - season is coming [9] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The pulp price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to macro - uncertainties and weak demand [10]