Core Viewpoint - The recent expansion of CCER methodologies by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment is expected to have significant impacts on companies involved in carbon asset development, particularly in terms of performance, business upgrades, and strategic restructuring [1] Group 1: CCER Methodology Expansion - The fifth batch of six CCER methodologies has been released, increasing the total from four to thirteen in 2023, and extending coverage from renewable sectors like wind power and afforestation to areas such as building energy efficiency and agricultural waste management [1] - The expansion of methodologies is seen as a move towards facilitating the transition from high carbon to low carbon practices [1] Group 2: Impact on Companies - Companies like Yueyang Forest and Paper are experiencing tangible impacts from the methodology expansion, including accelerated monetization of carbon assets from existing forestry carbon sinks and biomass power generation projects, leading to new profit growth points [1] - The integration of traditional business with carbon asset development is expected to enhance overall project returns [1] - The CCER mechanism is prompting companies to reassess the carbon value of their business lines, driving resources towards areas with high emission reduction potential, which lays the groundwork for future participation in carbon finance and innovative business models [1] Group 3: International Market Considerations - Experts suggest that participation in the international carbon market may still be premature for China, as the overall development of the international carbon market imposes high requirements for methodologies, project audits, and risk management [1] - The European CBAM framework has heightened awareness of "greenwashing" issues, leading to increased scrutiny of both product-level and investment financing behaviors [1]

Core Insights - The recent expansion of CCER methodologies indicates a shift from initial pilot phases to a more mature market, covering a broader range of sectors beyond just renewable energy [2][3] - Companies like Longyuan Power and Yueyang Forest Paper view the CCER market expansion as an opportunity to diversify business directions and enhance China's role in international carbon market rule-making [1][2] CCER Market Expansion - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a total of 15 CCER methodologies since 2025, indicating a significant increase in both the number and scope of projects [2][3] - The expansion signals a transition towards comprehensive low-carbon transformation across various sectors, including agriculture and construction, which will provide more low-cost emission reductions to support China's 2030 carbon peak target [2][3] Company Responses - Longyuan Power has established a specialized carbon asset management company to develop and trade CCER projects, viewing it as an additional value extension of its clean energy business [3][4] - Yueyang Forest Paper sees CCER as a strategic tool for business transformation, aiming to integrate carbon asset development with traditional operations to enhance overall project profitability [4] Challenges in International Integration - Experts suggest that while the CCER market is expanding, it is still premature for China to fully engage with international carbon markets due to differences in certification standards and the need for improved data transparency [5][6][7] - The upcoming EU carbon border tax and international climate agreements highlight the importance of aligning domestic methodologies with global standards to enhance the credibility of CCER in international markets [6][7]

Core Points - The recent expansion of CCER methodologies from 4 to 13 indicates a significant shift towards including high-carbon to low-carbon transition areas, such as building energy efficiency and agricultural waste management [1][2][3] - Companies like Longyuan Power and Yueyang Forest Paper view the accelerated growth of the CCER market as an opportunity to diversify their business and enhance China's influence in global carbon governance [1][2] - The release of the fifth batch of methodologies aligns with national policies aimed at promoting green and low-carbon transitions, as well as external pressures from the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) set to be implemented in January 2026 [1][5] Summary by Sections CCER Market Expansion - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a total of 15 CCER methodologies this year, indicating a rapid expansion of the market [2][3] - The expansion signifies a transition from pilot projects to a more mature market that covers the entire industry chain [2][3] Company Responses - Longyuan Power has established a specialized carbon asset management company to handle CCER project development and trading, viewing it as an additional value to their clean energy business [3][4] - Yueyang Forest Paper sees CCER as a strategic tool for business transformation, aiming to integrate carbon asset development with traditional operations to enhance profitability [4][5] Challenges and International Integration - Experts caution that while the CCER market is expanding, it still faces challenges in meeting international standards, particularly regarding project verification and data transparency [6][7] - The current methodologies may not yet be ready for international carbon trading under the Paris Agreement due to differences in certification standards and the need for dynamic updates [6][7]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a draft for public consultation on six methodologies related to greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction projects, indicating an acceleration in the development of the CCER methodology system [1][2] - Zhang Xiliang, Director of Tsinghua University's Energy and Environment Economics Research Institute, confirmed that the CCER methodology framework is currently under construction and is expected to be published by the end of 2025 or next year [1][2] Methodology Development - The CCER methodology is crucial for promoting the voluntary carbon market, with initial methodologies covering grid-connected solar thermal power, offshore wind power, afforestation carbon sinks, and mangrove restoration [2][3] - As of now, 19 methodologies have been released in five batches, but the number is still limited, necessitating a comprehensive methodology system to clarify project inclusion and establish relevant standards [2][3] Market Dynamics - The CCER methodology system aims to adopt a top-down approach, focusing on key sectors such as energy, buildings, and transportation, based on national strategic needs [3][4] - The development of carbon financial products, including futures and derivatives based on carbon emission rights and CCER, is seen as a necessary direction for future growth [4][5] Current Market Status - The current spot market for carbon trading has a participation rate exceeding 90%, indicating a significant level of engagement from enterprises [5][6] - The reasonable carbon price range is estimated to be between 70 to 100 yuan, reflecting the scarcity of carbon emission allowances and the constraints of carbon reduction targets [5][6] Future Challenges and Opportunities - The goal of achieving comprehensive coverage of the national carbon emission trading market by 2027 presents challenges, particularly regarding data quality and the complexity of managing new sectors [6][7] - Despite existing differences in carbon pricing between China and developed economies like the EU, the long-term trend suggests that China's carbon price will continue to rise, potentially converging with EU prices over the next two to three decades [7]

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China has become a crucial policy tool for addressing climate change and promoting green transformation, with significant growth in trading volume and market participation since its inception four years ago [1][2]. Market Development - The national carbon market has achieved a cumulative trading volume of 728 million tons and a total transaction value of 49.83 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - The trading volume has increased by 40% compared to the same period last year, indicating a rise in market activity and participant engagement [3]. - The number of trading accounts opened by newly included key emission units reached 1,277 by the end of August 2025, expanding the market's participant base [2]. Industry Inclusion and Impact - The carbon market has expanded to include four major industries: power generation, steel, aluminum smelting, and building materials, enhancing market diversity and trading opportunities [2][3]. - The structural changes in market participants have led to increased trading opportunities due to varying judgments on market transactions among different enterprises [2]. Local Market Role - Local carbon markets, such as Shanghai's, are expected to continue supporting local "dual carbon" goals and green development, even as they face challenges from the national market's expansion [6]. - Shanghai's carbon market has over 2,200 registered entities, including around 400 regulated enterprises and numerous investment and financial institutions, contributing to its trading volume and activity [5]. Future Directions - The carbon market is set to transition towards a model of "paid allocation + total control" during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on policy coordination and the establishment of a total control mechanism for carbon emissions [11]. - Shanghai plans to further diversify its market participants and explore innovative environmental rights, including water rights and pollution rights trading, to enhance market functionality [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China has become the largest in the world, effectively managing over 60% of the country's carbon dioxide emissions, with significant growth in trading volume and market participation observed in 2023 [1][2]. Market Development - The national carbon market has been operational for four years, with a cumulative trading volume of 728 million tons and a total transaction value of 49.83 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - The trading volume in 2023 has increased by 40% compared to the same period last year, indicating a rise in market activity and participant engagement [4]. - The number of key emission units that have opened trading accounts has reached 1,277, contributing to a more diverse market structure [2][3]. Market Structure and Participants - The expansion of the carbon market to include industries such as steel, aluminum smelting, and building materials has diversified the market, enhancing the richness and variety of market participants [3]. - The quality of market participants has improved, with many companies establishing dedicated carbon asset management departments, leading to a more proactive approach to carbon management [4]. Local Market Dynamics - Local carbon markets, such as Shanghai's, are expected to continue playing a crucial role in supporting local carbon reduction goals and green development, despite a reduction in quota coverage due to the national market's expansion [5][7]. - Shanghai's carbon market has over 2,200 registered entities, including around 400 key emission enterprises, which contributes to its high trading activity [6]. Future Directions - The carbon market is set to transition towards a model of "paid allocation + total control" during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on policy coordination between industrial and carbon market policies [10]. - Plans are in place to include all major industrial emission sectors in the carbon market by 2027, with ongoing research into paid allocation mechanisms to enhance market efficiency [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China has become the largest in the world, effectively managing over 60% of the country's carbon dioxide emissions, and is evolving towards a model of "paid allocation + total control" during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][10]. Market Development - The national carbon market has been operational for four years, with a cumulative trading volume of 728 million tons and a total transaction value of 49.83 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - The trading volume in the carbon market has increased significantly, with a 40% growth compared to the same period last year, and trading activity has improved with a 75% increase in transaction volume, number of trading enterprises, and transaction counts in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024 [2][3]. Market Structure and Participants - The inclusion of new key emission units has expanded the market's participant base to 1,277 entities, enhancing market diversity and creating more trading opportunities [2]. - The market now covers four major industries: power generation, steel, aluminum smelting, and building materials, which has diversified the market structure and improved trading dynamics [2]. Local Market Role - Local carbon markets, such as Shanghai's, are expected to continue supporting local "dual carbon" goals and green development, even as they face challenges from the national market's expansion [4][6]. - Shanghai's carbon market has over 2,200 registered entities, including around 400 regulated enterprises and 1,800 investment and financial institutions, contributing to high trading activity [5]. Future Directions - The Shanghai Environmental Energy Exchange is focusing on expanding industry coverage, researching paid allocation mechanisms, and promoting market participant diversification [8][9]. - The transition to a "paid allocation + total control" model is a key focus for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an emphasis on policy coordination between industrial and carbon market policies [10].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese photovoltaic companies are performing exceptionally well in overseas markets, securing significant GW-level orders, particularly in the Middle East and South Asia, with nearly 25GW of overseas contracts signed since September [1] Group 1: Domestic Market Dynamics - The national carbon market construction is strengthening, providing steady support for the demand for photovoltaic storage and other green electricity [2] - The elasticity coefficient of electricity consumption in China has been increasing, with overall electricity load reaching new highs and emerging energy demands continuously surfacing [2] - The market-oriented trading of new energy generation has led to an expansion of peak-valley price differences, further supporting the demand for green energy [2] Group 2: Supply Chain and Industry Trends - Coordination among national ministries and industry associations has led to a consensus against excessive competition, resulting in a rebound in industry chain prices [2] - The overseas demand is influenced by trade environment changes and IRA subsidy policy adjustments, with the European market gradually recovering and emerging markets developing [2] - The ongoing "anti-involution" process is expected to stabilize product prices and corporate profitability, alongside the growth of overseas market demand and the gradual application of new technologies like perovskite [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The new photovoltaic installed capacity in China is expected to maintain rapid growth throughout the year [2] - The demand for upstream photovoltaic processing equipment is anticipated to gradually stabilize and recover due to the ongoing "anti-involution" process and the application of new technologies [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental industry [13] Core Insights - Since 2024, China has accelerated the establishment of a national carbon market regulatory framework, with significant progress in the CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) methodology since October 2023. As of September 2025, the cumulative transaction volume of CCER is approximately 2.43 billion yuan, with an average transaction price of 86.41 yuan per ton [2][6][8] Summary by Sections Carbon Emission Control System - The carbon emission control system is gradually improving, with a unified national carbon market being constructed. The market includes both the national carbon quota trading market (CEA) and the voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market (CCER), which operate independently but are interconnected through a quota offset mechanism [6][19][21] CCER Methodology Expansion - The CCER methodology has been continuously expanded, with four batches of methodologies released since October 2023. The first batch includes forestry carbon sinks and offshore wind power, while subsequent batches cover various energy-saving and emission reduction projects. As of September 2025, 29 voluntary emission reduction projects have been registered, with an expected annual reduction of 10.438 million tons [7][26][27] CCER Market Performance - The average transaction price of CCER is currently higher than that of CEA, reflecting a temporary supply-demand imbalance due to strict project approvals and limited issuance. The report anticipates that as the issuance of CCER increases and market mechanisms mature, prices will gradually return to a reasonable relationship. The average transaction price of CCER from January to September 2025 is 86.41 yuan per ton, while CEA's average is 69.29 yuan per ton [8][34] Benefits of Agricultural and Forestry Biomass Projects - The report highlights the potential benefits of agricultural and forestry biomass projects under the CCER framework. For instance, assuming a CCER price of 80 yuan per ton, companies like Changqing Group and China Everbright Green Environmental Protection could see significant revenue contributions from CCER sales, amounting to 139 million yuan and 384 million HKD, respectively [9][44][45] Investment Logic for CCER - The investment logic for CCER emphasizes the importance of additionality in projects, focusing on profitability compensation rather than mere emission reduction. Key areas of interest include carbon monitoring equipment and consulting services, as well as the acceleration of related industries such as biomass power generation and hydrogen energy [10][49]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant transformation in global climate governance, highlighting the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting green low-carbon transitions as a universal consensus. China's commitment to achieving its "dual carbon" goals showcases its responsibility as a major power, with the carbon market playing a crucial role in ecological civilization construction [1]. Summary by Sections Development of China's Carbon Market - China's carbon market has evolved from local pilot programs to a national unified market, covering 60% of carbon emissions and becoming the largest carbon market globally. The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting Green Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" marks a new phase of comprehensive deepening in carbon market development [1][2]. Market Achievements and Trends - As of August 22, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances reached 680 million tons, with a total transaction value exceeding 47.41 billion yuan. The market has shown stability, with a nearly 100% compliance rate for allowance submissions in 2024. The market is set to expand in 2025 to include steel, cement, and aluminum industries, which together account for approximately 2.5 billion tons of CO2 emissions [3][4]. Policy Innovations and Institutional Breakthroughs - The "Opinions" provide a systematic framework for the national carbon market, outlining medium- and long-term development goals. By 2027, the market aims to cover major industrial sectors, and by 2030, it will establish a mixed allocation system combining free and paid distribution of allowances [6][7]. Market Mechanisms and Financial Innovations - The carbon market is transitioning from intensity-based allocation to total control, with a phased approach to implement total control by 2030. The introduction of a "mandatory + voluntary" dual-track market system aims to enhance flexibility and inclusivity, encouraging broader participation in emission reduction efforts [8][9]. Challenges and Opportunities - Despite significant progress, challenges remain, including the predominance of free allocation methods and the need for improved market stability mechanisms. However, the potential for financial innovation, such as carbon pledges and repurchase policies, presents opportunities for enhancing market vitality and developing new carbon financial products [10][13]. Future Directions - The article suggests that future efforts should focus on establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework, enhancing market mechanisms, and fostering international cooperation to strengthen China's position in global carbon governance. This includes developing carbon financial products and improving data governance to support market efficiency [14][15][16].