国际海事组织(IMO)净零框架表决延期一年，全球航运减排进程骤然放缓。这究竟是各方弥合分歧、夯 实基础的战略缓冲，还是全球航运脱碳雄心受挫的征兆？中国科学院大连化学物理研究所低碳战略研究 中心团队基于对全球航运合规标准体系的研究，解析延期背后复杂的利益博弈，并揭示这场"加时赛"对 航运业未来格局的影响。 船舶GFI处于基础目标和直接合规目标之间，即达到或优于基础目标但无法达到直接合规要求时，产生 一级合规赤字。此类赤字只能通过向IMO净零基金购买一级补救单位(Tier1RUs)平衡，价格为100美 元/tCO2eq。 船舶GFI无法达到基础目标时，同时产生一级和二级合规赤字。一级合规赤字须通过一级补救单位平 衡，只能向IMO净零基金购买。二级合规赤字则有多种平衡方式，既可通过其他船舶转让的SUs、本船 历史账户中的SUs来平衡，也可通过向净零基金购买二级补救单位(Tier2RUs)平衡，价格为380美 元/tCO2eq。 也就是说，IMO净零框架的合规体系为船舶设置了逐年趋严的基础目标与直接合规目标，这意味着船舶 必须逐年降低其能耗的碳排放水平，而一级补救单位和二级补救单位具有惩戒性的价格差异，使得合规 成为 ...

Core Insights - The establishment of the "Open Alliance for Carbon Emission Trading Markets" by China, the EU, and Brazil aims to enhance international cooperation in carbon markets, creating a framework for coordinating carbon pricing mechanisms and emission trading systems globally [1][3] Group 1: Alliance Formation and Objectives - The alliance seeks to create a transparent and credible global compliance carbon market network, facilitating international exchanges and cooperation in carbon market governance [1] - Participants in the alliance include both developed and developing countries, showcasing a trend of bridging cooperation in carbon market governance [3] Group 2: Global Carbon Market Developments - The COP29 conference marked a significant breakthrough in global carbon market collaboration, with consensus reached on the creation of carbon credit standards under the Paris Agreement [2] - The UNFCCC is advancing the development of approximately 19 methodologies for the Paris Agreement carbon credit mechanism, with several expected to be approved by mid-2026 [3] Group 3: Challenges in Carbon Market Integration - The establishment of a unified global carbon market faces challenges due to significant differences in economic development stages, energy structures, and emission reduction costs among countries [5] - The existence of 80 different carbon pricing tools globally, including 37 emission trading systems and 43 carbon taxes, complicates the integration of carbon markets [5] Group 4: Future Directions and Recommendations - Experts suggest a gradual approach to global carbon market collaboration, emphasizing the need for international rule-making and mutual recognition of standards [6][7] - China's role is highlighted as crucial in connecting developed and developing nations, leveraging its experience in renewable energy and carbon market development [8]

Core Points - The establishment of the "Open Alliance for Carbon Emission Trading Markets" by China, the EU, and Brazil aims to enhance international cooperation in carbon markets, creating a framework for coordinating carbon pricing mechanisms and emission trading systems globally [1][3] - The alliance reflects a collaboration between developed and developing countries, with the EU bringing experience and technology, while China contributes its advancements in renewable energy and green finance [1][3] - The global carbon market is expected to evolve gradually, with the need for unified standards and mechanisms to facilitate cooperation among different carbon pricing systems [6][7] Group 1: Alliance Formation - The alliance aims to create a transparent and credible global compliance carbon market network [1] - It includes both traditional carbon market leaders and emerging market representatives, indicating a bridging cooperation trend [3] - The establishment of the alliance is seen as a positive signal for future climate finance support for emerging markets [3] Group 2: Global Carbon Market Developments - The COP29 conference marked a significant breakthrough in reaching consensus on carbon credit creation standards under the Paris Agreement [2] - The UNFCCC is working on developing approximately 19 methodologies for the Paris Agreement Carbon Credit Mechanism (PACM), with several expected to be approved by mid-2026 [3] - The global carbon market is characterized by significant differences in national economic development stages, energy structures, and emission reduction costs, complicating the establishment of a unified market [5] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The global carbon market allows countries with high reduction costs to trade, enhancing their motivation to reduce emissions while providing financial support to low-income countries [4] - However, the construction of a truly unified global carbon market faces challenges due to the diverse national circumstances and existing carbon pricing tools [5] - Experts emphasize the importance of gradual progress and the need for flexibility in standards to accommodate the varying capabilities of developing countries [7] Group 4: China's Role - China is viewed as a key player in the alliance, leveraging its strengths in renewable energy and cross-border cooperation to connect developed and developing nations [8] - The country is expected to contribute to a governance system that integrates policy, technology, and capital for effective climate governance [8] - The alliance represents a critical step towards interconnected global carbon markets, with the real test lying in the implementation of detailed rules [8]

Core Insights - The expansion roadmap for China's national carbon emissions trading market has been officially unveiled, with a clear timeline for including additional industries by 2027, aiming to cover approximately 75% of national CO2 emissions [1][4]. Summary by Sections Carbon Market Expansion - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a quota distribution plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries for 2024 and 2025, marking a significant step in the carbon market's expansion [1][4]. - By including these three industries, the total number of key emission units will reach around 3,700, covering emissions of approximately 8 billion tons, which accounts for over 60% of national carbon emissions [4]. Future Industry Inclusion - The final goal is to achieve full coverage of major emission industries in the industrial sector by 2027, with preliminary preparations already underway for the chemical, petrochemical, civil aviation, and paper industries [4][5]. - Predictions suggest that once eight major industries are fully included, over 8,000 enterprises will enter the market, covering more than 70% of greenhouse gas emissions nationwide [4]. Technical Preparations - The Ministry has collected and verified carbon emission data from relevant industries since 2013, laying the groundwork for scientifically determining total quotas [5]. - A comprehensive set of technical documents related to quota distribution, accounting, reporting, and verification is being expedited, alongside upgrades to the national carbon market management platform and trading systems [5]. Market Dynamics and Pricing - The diversity of market participants is expected to enhance the pricing function of the carbon market, with the current closing price around 66 yuan per ton [5]. - Industry experts predict that carbon prices could rise significantly, potentially reaching between 130 to 180 yuan per ton by 2027, driven by quota control and paid distribution mechanisms [5]. Industry-Specific Impacts - Different industries will experience varying impacts from the carbon market expansion, with sectors like electricity and steel being better prepared compared to more complex industries like petrochemicals and paper [6]. - The aviation sector faces additional challenges, including external pressures such as the EU carbon border tax [6]. Future Market Development - By 2030, the goal is to establish a carbon market based on total quota control, combining free and paid distribution, to create a reasonable carbon pricing mechanism [7]. - The Ministry has indicated that total quota control will be prioritized in stable emission sectors, gradually tightening quotas to enhance market efficiency and optimize carbon reduction resource allocation [7].

Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) has released a roadmap for expanding the national carbon emissions trading market, aiming to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 [1][2][3] - The carbon market currently includes approximately 3,700 key emission units, covering around 8 billion tons of emissions, which accounts for over 60% of national carbon emissions [1][2][3] - The MEE has initiated preparatory work for including additional sectors such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and papermaking, adhering to a principle of gradual inclusion based on industry maturity [1][4] Industry Coverage - The eight key industries targeted for carbon market inclusion account for about 75% of China's carbon dioxide emissions, including power generation, steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, papermaking, and aviation [2][3] - By 2025, the MEE plans to finalize the inclusion of steel, cement, and aluminum smelting into the carbon trading market, which will significantly enhance the market's coverage [3][4] Quota Distribution - The quota distribution for 2024 and 2025 will be free and based on carbon emissions per unit of output, following a gradual approach [6][7] - New enterprises that commence operations in 2024 and 2025 will not be included in the quota distribution for those years, ensuring that only established units are considered [6] Market Dynamics - The carbon price is expected to rise significantly by 2027, from approximately 50 yuan per ton to between 130 and 180 yuan per ton, reflecting the transition to a more stringent quota control and paid allocation system [7][9] - The current carbon market has a high participation rate, with over 90% engagement in spot trading, indicating a robust market structure [10] Future Directions - The MEE aims to enhance data quality management and regulatory frameworks to support the expansion of the carbon market, ensuring accurate emissions reporting from newly included sectors [5][9] - The transition to a paid allocation system and total quota control is a key focus for the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with an emphasis on establishing a fair and effective carbon pricing mechanism [11]

Core Insights - The establishment of the "Open Alliance for Carbon Emission Trading Markets" aims to enhance international cooperation in carbon markets among China, the EU, and Brazil, involving 11 economies to create a global compliant carbon market network [1][2] Group 1: Alliance Characteristics - The alliance includes both traditional carbon market leaders and emerging market representatives, reflecting a trend of bridging cooperation between developed and developing countries in carbon market governance [1][2] - The collaboration is expected to provide more climate finance support to emerging markets, addressing the funding challenges faced by developing countries [1] Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - The alliance seeks to unify global carbon pricing mechanisms through standard coordination, mutual recognition of systems, and sharing of experiences and technologies, which are essential for ensuring the effectiveness and fairness of compliant markets [2] - Current fragmentation in carbon markets, with 80 different carbon pricing tools, creates significant disparities and hinders collaborative development, leading to risks such as regulatory arbitrage and "false reductions" [2][3] Group 3: Impact on Global Carbon Markets - The formation of the alliance is expected to transition global carbon markets from "dispersed operation" to "coordinated connectivity," breaking down institutional barriers and enhancing liquidity and uniformity in carbon pricing mechanisms [3] - Sharing carbon accounting methodologies and verification systems among members will accelerate capacity building in emerging market carbon trading systems and attract international capital into low-carbon projects [3]

Group 1: Green Trade Policy - The Ministry of Commerce has issued the first special policy document on green trade, titled "Implementation Opinions on Expanding Green Trade," aimed at promoting trade optimization and achieving carbon neutrality goals [1] - The document emphasizes the importance of establishing a robust support system for green trade, including enhancing financial policy support and encouraging financial institutions to develop products based on carbon footprint accounting and certification [1] Group 2: Carbon Emission Trading Mechanism - The carbon emission trading mechanism is a core policy tool for achieving China's dual carbon goals, with the national carbon market expanding from 5 billion tons to 8 billion tons in emission coverage, and the number of regulated enterprises increasing from over 2,200 to 3,700, representing a 60% overall market expansion [2] - The introduction of carbon emission futures is seen as a significant direction for enriching carbon financial products, addressing the growing need for managing price volatility risks as more industries are included in the carbon market [2][3] Group 3: Futures Market and Risk Management - The launch of carbon-related futures and options products is expected to enhance risk management and liquidity in the carbon market, making carbon trading more efficient [3] - The futures market plays a crucial role in price discovery, risk management, and resource allocation, which can significantly benefit the carbon market [3] Group 4: Futures Industry Contribution - The futures industry is actively focusing on industry needs and innovating services to support the construction of the carbon emission rights market, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange prioritizing carbon emission rights as a strategic product [4] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has completed the design of the carbon emission rights futures contract system and is set to advance the listing of these futures while refining market research and contract design [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China's green trade policy is being formalized through the issuance of the "Implementation Opinions" by the Ministry of Commerce, aiming to promote trade optimization and support the country's dual carbon goals [1] - The green trade support system will be enhanced through financial policy support, encouraging financial institutions to develop products based on carbon footprint accounting and certification [1] - The carbon trading mechanism is identified as a key policy tool for achieving China's dual carbon goals, with the national carbon market expanding its coverage from 5 billion tons to 8 billion tons, increasing the number of regulated enterprises from over 2,200 to 3,700, resulting in a 60% overall market expansion [2] Group 2 - The introduction of carbon emission rights futures is seen as a significant direction for developing carbon financial products, which can help manage price volatility risks for enterprises as new industries are gradually included in the carbon market [2] - Experts believe that launching carbon emission rights futures and options can enhance market liquidity and efficiency, thereby strengthening China's position in the international carbon market [3] - The futures industry is actively focusing on industry needs and innovating services to support the construction of carbon emission rights, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange planning to launch carbon emission rights futures [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report released by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment highlights the progress and future direction of China's carbon market, emphasizing its importance in achieving national climate goals and enhancing the carbon pricing mechanism [1][3]. Group 1: Market Development - The national carbon emissions trading market has shown increased vitality, with a 43.55% rise in average daily trading volume compared to the previous compliance cycle, totaling 1.89 million tons for the year [2]. - The annual trading value of carbon emission allowances reached 18.114 billion yuan, marking a new high since the market's launch in 2021 [2]. - As of August 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances reached 69.6 million tons, with a total transaction value of 47.826 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Compliance and Performance - The compliance rate for the 2023 carbon allowance was 99.98%, achieving a historical high, with 28 provincial regions completing their compliance work at 100% [2]. - This represents a significant improvement compared to the previous compliance cycles [2]. Group 3: Future Directions - The Chinese government aims to enhance the carbon market as a key policy tool for controlling greenhouse gas emissions, with plans to gradually expand the market's coverage and improve related policies [3]. - There is a focus on diversifying trading products, participants, and methods to create a more equitable and transparent market environment [3].

Core Viewpoint - China has established the world's largest carbon emissions trading market, which is now operating steadily, covering over 60% of the country's carbon emissions, with a cumulative trading volume of nearly 700 million tons as of the end of August [1][2]. Group 1: Development and Structure of the Carbon Market - The construction of China's carbon emissions trading market has progressed steadily since the pilot programs were initiated in 2011, leading to the national market's official launch in 2017 [2]. - The recent issuance of the "Opinions" document aims to enhance the effectiveness, vitality, and international influence of the national carbon market, while also coordinating with local pilot markets [2][5]. - The national carbon market is expected to manage over 70% of carbon emissions in the future, with the voluntary carbon market complementing it by addressing emissions not covered by the mandatory market [3][4]. Group 2: Key Measures and Future Directions - The "Opinions" document outlines a timeline and roadmap for the development of the national carbon market, emphasizing the need for effective integration with national carbon emission control measures [2][7]. - Key areas for immediate focus include achieving effective linkage between the national carbon market and the dual control of carbon emissions, introducing paid allocation of quotas, and enhancing management capabilities of registration and trading institutions [2][5][6]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework and Data Quality - A multi-level and relatively complete regulatory framework for the carbon market has begun to take shape, with over 30 regulations and technical standards established [6]. - The upcoming "Interim Regulations on Carbon Emission Trading" will clarify responsibilities for companies regarding carbon emission reporting and quota compliance, with penalties for non-compliance [6]. Group 4: Pricing Mechanism and Market Dynamics - The transition from intensity control to total control of carbon emissions is planned, with a focus on scientifically setting total quotas to meet national reduction targets [7]. - Factors influencing carbon pricing include national emission reduction goals and the development of low-carbon technologies, highlighting the need for a market-driven pricing mechanism [8].