日本央行副行长内田真一：需要密切关注经济前景是否能够实现。 若经济前景实现，将会加息。 不确定性非常高。 汇率的快速波动增加了前景展望的不确定性。 汇率带来的影响因经济实体而异。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring changes in trade policy and their impact on productivity and economic outlook [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's attention to trade policy changes indicates a proactive approach to understanding economic dynamics [1] - The focus on productivity suggests that the Federal Reserve is considering how trade policies may influence overall economic efficiency [1] - The implications of trade policy on economic prospects highlight the interconnectedness of global trade and domestic economic health [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve's Williams did not comment on the economic and monetary policy outlook [1] Group 1 - The absence of comments from Williams may indicate a cautious approach by the Federal Reserve regarding future economic conditions [1]

美联储理事巴尔：贸易政策增加了不确定性，导致经济前景变得黯淡，影响了消费者和企业的信心。 ...

瑞典央行：经济前景似乎比三月份的预测略微疲软一些。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a high probability of maintaining rates in May due to strong employment data and easing inflation pressures [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May exceeds 96%, indicating a strong consensus in the market [3]. - April's non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, significantly surpassing the expected 138,000, reflecting a robust labor market [3]. - The March PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-over-year, with core PCE dropping to 2.6%, suggesting reduced short-term pressure for rate hikes [3]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - Recent tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve have emerged, with President Trump suggesting that the Fed should lower rates, which could undermine the Fed's independence [3][4]. - The upcoming press conference is crucial for understanding Fed Chair Powell's stance on inflation, economic outlook, and political pressures [4]. Group 3: Market Implications - A hawkish signal from Powell could lead to a rebound in the dollar index, putting short-term pressure on the Chinese yuan, while long-term trends will depend on domestic economic resilience [5]. - If the Fed signals a stable liquidity environment without aggressive rate hikes, technology stocks may continue to perform well, driven by AI trends [5]. - Gold prices are sensitive to interest rates; maintaining current rates could enhance its appeal as a safe-haven asset, while oil prices will depend on the Fed's economic outlook [5]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Current market expectations indicate a 35% probability of a rate cut in June, suggesting that most believe the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see approach [5]. - The focus should be on whether the Fed's policy logic shifts from "anti-inflation priority" to "balancing growth and inflation," which will influence asset allocation strategies in the coming months [5].

日本央行行长植田和男：如果经济前景发生变化，我们将需要调整我们的货币政策。此次展望可能不如 以往准确。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：经济前景不如以往那样确定。 ...

Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. dropped to its lowest level in nearly five years, primarily due to increasing concerns over tariffs impacting the economic outlook [1] - The index fell by 7.9 points to 86.0, marking the lowest level since May 2020 [1] - This decline in consumer confidence has been observed for five consecutive months, indicating a persistent downward trend since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Economic Indicators - The anticipated GDP data for the U.S. is expected to show a significant slowdown in economic growth for the first quarter, attributed to businesses rushing to import goods to avoid rising costs from tariffs [1] - There is a potential for a substantial decrease in consumer spending, driven by high inflation and concerns regarding the economic impact of tariffs, leading some households to cut back on consumption to preserve savings [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Harker indicates that the economic outlook presents multiple divergent paths, suggesting uncertainty in future economic conditions [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring various economic indicators to assess the potential trajectories of the economy [1] - Harker emphasizes the importance of data-driven decision-making in navigating the current economic landscape [1] - The potential for different economic scenarios highlights the complexity of monetary policy formulation [1]