Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management in equity valuation and market trends [1] - It highlights the combination of fundamental and technical analysis to uncover high-growth investment opportunities [1] - The focus is on macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis to provide actionable investment ideas [1] Group 1 - The analyst has over 20 years of experience in the field, with a strong background in model validation and regulatory finance [1] - The approach taken by the analyst and their partner is data-driven, blending rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation [1] - The article aims to deliver high-quality insights that help investors outperform the market [1]

Core Insights - UnitedHealth Group's stock has experienced a significant decline from approximately $600 in April to around $275 in May, with a slight recovery to $325, following disappointing Q1 results and management changes [2] - Despite the stock's volatility, it is currently trading at attractive valuations, supported by strong operating performance and financial health metrics [2][9] Valuation - UnitedHealth's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 0.7, compared to 3.1 for the S&P 500, indicating it is inexpensive relative to the broader market [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 12.9 versus 26.9 for the S&P 500, further highlighting its appealing valuation [6] Revenue Growth - UnitedHealth's revenues have grown at an average rate of 11.3% over the last three years, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 5.5% growth [6] - In the last 12 months, revenues increased by 8.1%, from $379 billion to $410 billion, compared to a 5.5% growth for the S&P 500 [6] Profitability - The company's operating income over the past four quarters was $33 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 8.2%, which is considered subpar [6] - UnitedHealth's net income totaled $22 billion, reflecting a net income margin of 5.4%, lower than the S&P 500's 11.6% [6] Financial Stability - UnitedHealth's balance sheet is described as robust, with a debt figure of $81 billion and a market capitalization of $297 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 28.6% [12] - The company holds $34 billion in cash, contributing to a strong cash-to-assets ratio of 11.1% [12] Downturn Resilience - UNH stock has shown resilience during downturns, outperforming the S&P 500 in several recent market declines [8][13] - The overall assessment of UnitedHealth's performance indicates strong growth, weak profitability, strong financial stability, and strong downturn resilience [13]

Core Viewpoint - The North Exchange is seen as an excellent venue for public funds to demonstrate active management capabilities and create alpha, according to Gu Xinfeng, who recently achieved the third place among A-share funds this year [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The liquidity of the North Exchange is improving, leading to a stronger willingness among quality companies to list on this platform [1] - Despite some stocks being relatively expensive, the large base of the New Third Board provides a continuous influx of new opportunities for the market [1]

Core Insights - Paychex reported a nearly 10% decline in stock price following the announcement of its Q4 FY'25 results, despite a year-over-year revenue growth of 10% to $1.43 billion and adjusted earnings increasing by 6% to $1.19 per share [2] - The company's FY'26 guidance of 16.5% to 18.5% revenue growth was below market expectations, contributing to investor disappointment [2] - Challenges include integration issues from the recent acquisition of Paycor and rising interest costs from debt incurred for the acquisition, along with the negative impact of the conclusion of the Employee Retention Tax Credit program [2] Financial Performance - Paychex's revenues have shown modest growth, with a 4.3% increase from $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion over the last year, compared to a 5.5% growth for the S&P 500 [7] - Quarterly revenues rose by 4.8% to $1.5 billion in the latest quarter, matching the S&P 500's improvement [8] - The company has an average annual growth rate of 6.6% over the past three years, slightly outperforming the S&P 500's 5.5% [7] Profitability Metrics - Paychex's net income for the last four quarters was $1.7 billion, resulting in a net income margin of 32.0%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 11.6% [9] - The operating income for the last four quarters was $2.3 billion, reflecting a high operating margin of 41.5% [15] - Operating cash flow during this period was $1.8 billion, indicating a strong operating cash flow margin of 32.7% compared to the S&P 500's 14.9% [15] Financial Stability - Paychex's debt stood at $864 million, with a market capitalization of $50 billion, resulting in a low debt-to-equity ratio of 1.6% compared to the S&P 500's 19.4% [10] - Cash and cash equivalents amount to $1.6 billion, contributing to a cash-to-assets ratio of 14.3% out of total assets of $11 billion [10] Valuation Comparison - Paychex's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 10.1, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 3.1 [7] - The price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio is 34.3 compared to 20.9 for the S&P 500, and the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 31.6 versus 26.9 for the benchmark [7][4] - The elevated valuation of Paychex stock raises concerns about its upside potential in the short to medium term [14]

Group 1: A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) of the A-share market is 15.56, with a historical average of 22.09, indicating a significant undervaluation compared to historical levels[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE (TTM) of 12.95, while the CSI 300 Index stands at 12.35, both below their historical averages[11] - The growth of the A-share market is primarily driven by earnings changes, with the current year-to-date performance of the Shanghai Composite Index at 14.93%[15] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index currently has a PE (TTM) of 10.78, with a historical maximum of 22.67, suggesting it is undervalued relative to its historical peak[61] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE of 20.32, indicating a higher valuation compared to the broader market[61] - The Hang Seng Index's current valuation is significantly lower than its historical average, reflecting market concerns[63] Group 3: U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 27.64, with a historical maximum of 41.99, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical standards[81] - The NASDAQ Index shows a PE (TTM) of 41.84, which is at the higher end of its historical range, suggesting potential overvaluation[89] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a current PE of 30.60, reflecting a strong market performance but also a higher valuation risk[94] Group 4: Sector Valuation Insights - In the A-share market, sectors like non-ferrous metals and food & beverage are currently at historically low PE levels, while sectors like computers and steel are at historically high PE levels[25] - The banking sector in A-shares has a PB (LF) of 0.62, indicating a low valuation compared to historical averages[28] - The consumer sector, particularly liquor and pharmaceuticals, shows a PE (TTM) of 17.71 and 33.90 respectively, reflecting strong market interest[34]

Core Viewpoint - FedEx's stock experienced a 6% decline in after-market trading following its Q4 FY2025 earnings report, despite surpassing consensus estimates, due to a cautious outlook for the upcoming quarter [2][6] Financial Performance - FedEx reported Q4 revenue of $22.2 billion, matching the prior-year quarter and exceeding the consensus estimate of $21.8 billion [3] - The package segment saw a 5% increase in volume, while composite package yield decreased slightly by 0.4% [3] - Freight volume declined significantly by 15%, although composite freight yield rose by 3% [3] - The adjusted operating margin improved by 600 basis points to 9.1%, with adjusted earnings per share increasing to $6.07 from $5.41 in the previous year, surpassing the consensus estimate of $5.86 [5] Guidance and Outlook - FedEx's guidance for Q1 FY2026 indicates revenue growth of flat to 2% year-over-year, slightly better than street estimates of a 0.1% decline [6] - The company forecasts adjusted earnings per share between $3.40 and $4.00, below the consensus estimate of $4.06 [6] - FedEx plans an additional $1 billion in cost-cutting measures for FY2026, building on $4 billion in savings already achieved [6] Valuation Analysis - FedEx's stock is currently trading around $215, with a trailing adjusted P/E ratio of 12x, lower than its five-year average of 16x, suggesting potential for growth [7] - The separation of the freight business is expected to unlock shareholder value and enhance focus on core parcel delivery operations [8] - The stock appears slightly undervalued, presenting a potential opportunity for long-term gains [8]

证券研究报告 全球主要指数估值总览 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年6月20日 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0616-0620） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年6月21日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 风险提示 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、部分机构集中持有个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 2 目录 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 4 4 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 40 50 60 15.17 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - PayPal's stock has underperformed in 2025, with a year-to-date decline of approximately 17%, contrasting with a 2% rise in the S&P 500, while the company's financial results show mixed performance, focusing on profitability over revenue growth [2][3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, PayPal reported earnings of $1.33 per share, exceeding expectations, but revenue was $7.8 billion, reflecting only a 1% year-over-year increase [2] - PayPal's revenues have grown at an average rate of 7.8% over the past three years, compared to a 5.5% increase for the S&P 500 [6] - Quarterly revenues increased by 4.2% to $7.8 billion in the latest quarter from $7.7 billion a year earlier, while the S&P 500 saw a 4.8% increase [6] Valuation Metrics - PayPal's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 2.3, compared to 3.0 for the S&P 500, indicating it may be slightly undervalued [4][6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for PayPal stands at 17.8, while the S&P 500's is 26.4, further suggesting a relative undervaluation [6] Profitability - PayPal's operating income over the last four quarters was $5.8 billion, with an operating margin of 18.1%, compared to 13.2% for the S&P 500 [7] - The net income for PayPal was $4.1 billion, resulting in a net income margin of 13.0%, which is higher than the S&P 500's 11.6% [7] Financial Stability - PayPal's debt was $9.9 billion, with a market capitalization of $70 billion, leading to a debt-to-equity ratio of 13.4%, lower than the S&P 500's 19.9% [9] - Cash and cash equivalents account for $11 billion of PayPal's total assets of $81 billion, resulting in a cash-to-assets ratio of 13.3% [9] Downturn Resilience - PayPal shares have experienced a decline of 41.9% from a peak of $308.53 in July 2021 to $71 currently, which is worse than the S&P 500's peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% during the same period [11] - During the COVID-19 pandemic, PayPal shares fell 20.3%, compared to a 33.9% drop for the S&P 500, indicating some resilience [11] Overall Assessment - PayPal's performance across various metrics indicates a strong operational performance and financial standing, leading to the conclusion that the stock is fairly priced and could be a solid buy [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries stock is considered an attractive investment opportunity at its current price of approximately $100, primarily due to its low valuation compared to its operational performance and financial health [2][3]. Valuation Comparison - CF Industries' stock appears inexpensive when compared to the S&P 500 based on cost per dollar of sales or profit [4]. - The company has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.6, a price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio of 6.6, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.8, all of which are lower than the S&P 500 averages of 3.0, 20.5, and 26.4 respectively [7]. Revenue Performance - CF Industries has experienced a contraction in revenues at an average rate of 5.6% over the last three years, while the S&P 500 saw an increase of 5.5% [6]. - The company's revenues increased by 0.7% from $6.1 billion to $6.1 billion in the past 12 months, compared to a growth of 5.5% for the S&P 500 [6]. - Quarterly revenues rose by 13.1% to $1.7 billion from $1.5 billion a year prior, outperforming the S&P 500's 4.8% improvement [6]. Profitability Metrics - CF Industries boasts significantly higher profit margins than most companies in the Trefis coverage spectrum [6]. - The company's operating income over the last four quarters was $1.9 billion, with an operating margin of 30.7%, compared to 13.2% for the S&P 500 [8]. - CF Industries' operating cash flow (OCF) was $2.4 billion, indicating a high OCF margin of 39.4%, versus 14.9% for the S&P 500 [8]. - The net income for the last four quarters was $1.3 billion, reflecting a net income margin of 21.8%, compared to 11.6% for the S&P 500 [8]. Financial Stability - CF Industries has a debt figure of $3.3 billion and a market capitalization of $17 billion, resulting in a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 20.8%, slightly higher than the S&P 500's 19.9% [9]. - The company holds $1.4 billion in cash (including cash equivalents) out of $13 billion in total assets, yielding a cash-to-assets ratio of 10.6%, compared to 13.8% for the S&P 500 [9]. Downturn Resilience - CF stock has underperformed the S&P 500 during several recent downturns, including a 49.1% decline during the inflation shock of 2022 compared to a 25.4% decline for the S&P 500 [11]. - During the COVID pandemic in 2020, CF stock fell 55.7%, while the S&P 500 experienced a 33.9% decline [11]. - In the global financial crisis of 2008, CF stock dropped 76.8%, compared to a 56.8% decline for the S&P 500 [12]. Overall Assessment - CF Industries' performance across various parameters indicates a very low valuation, making the stock an attractive investment choice [12]. - The company is rated as neutral in growth, very strong in profitability, strong in financial stability, and very weak in downturn resilience [14].

Core Viewpoint - MP Materials stock is currently considered unattractive due to high valuation and weak operational performance [2][11] Valuation Comparison - MP Materials has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 20.9, significantly higher than the S&P 500's ratio of 3.0 [4] Revenue Performance - MP Materials' revenues have contracted at an average rate of 15.3% over the last three years, while the S&P 500 increased by 5.5% [5] - Revenues rose by 4.6% from $206 million to $216 million in the past 12 months, compared to a 5.5% increase for the S&P 500 [5] - Quarterly revenues increased by 24.9% to $61 million from $49 million a year prior, while the S&P 500 saw a 4.8% improvement [5] Profitability Metrics - MP Materials reported an operating income of $-166 million, resulting in an operating margin of -77.0%, compared to 13.2% for the S&P 500 [6] - The operating cash flow (OCF) was $-8.7 million, indicating an OCF margin of -4.0%, against 14.9% for the S&P 500 [6] - Net income was $-105 million, leading to a net income margin of -48.4%, compared to 11.6% for the S&P 500 [7] Financial Stability - MP Materials had a debt of $916 million with a market capitalization of $4.5 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 20.3%, slightly higher than the S&P 500's 19.9% [8] - Cash and cash equivalents accounted for $759 million of total assets of $2.4 billion, yielding a cash-to-assets ratio of 32.1%, compared to 13.8% for the S&P 500 [8] Downturn Resilience - MP stock has underperformed the S&P 500 during recent downturns, with a notable drop of 50.2% from a high of $49.44 on March 2, 2021, to $24.61 on May 13, 2021, while the S&P 500 dropped 25.4% [10] - The stock fully recovered to its pre-crisis peak by January 4, 2022, but currently trades at approximately $27 [10][11] Overall Assessment - MP Materials is assessed as follows: Growth - Neutral, Profitability - Extremely Weak, Financial Stability - Very Strong, Downturn Resilience - Very Weak, Overall - Weak [13]