有色金属日报 2025-4-14 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价大幅下探后回升，伦铜周涨 5.68%至 9184 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 75710 元/吨。产业 层面，上周三大交易所库存环比减少 3.4 万吨，其中上期所库存减少 4.3 至 18.3 万吨，LME 库存减 少 0.2 至 20.9 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 1.1 至 10.6 万吨。上海保税区库存增加 0.1 万吨。当周铜现 货进口盈亏冲高回落，洋 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices rebounded after hitting a low, currently trading around $3042, recovering all losses from the previous night [1] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.283%, reaching a high of 4.296%, increasing the holding cost of non-yielding assets like gold [1] - Concerns over weak demand for U.S. Treasury auctions and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook are dominating short-term market sentiment [1] Trade Policy - U.S. Trade Representative Tai indicated that there will be no easing of tariff policies in the short term, emphasizing the necessity of short-term pain for long-term competitiveness [3] - Tariffs on 57 trading partners have come into effect, reinforcing U.S. trade barriers and contributing to ongoing global trade tensions [3] - The U.S. is engaged in negotiations with over 50 countries, but a hardline stance is maintained, requiring substantial reductions in tariffs from trading partners for any consideration of tariff relief [3] Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 index fell below 5000, with a cumulative drop of over 12% in four days, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $5.8 trillion [4] - The volatility index (VIX) surged to its highest level since March 2020, indicating widespread market panic [4] - Market expectations suggest a 105 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by year-end, with over 50% probability for a cut in May [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a recovery from recent lows, with potential for significant fluctuations within the range above $2950 [6] - Short-term price movements indicate a challenge around the $3050 level, with key support at $3013 [6] Trading Strategy - Aggressive buying is suggested around $3013, with a stop loss at $2999 and a target of $3053/3076 [7] - For short positions, entry is recommended near $3053, with a stop loss at $3060 and a target of $3033/3013 [7]

美联储戴利：美联储政策处于非常良好的状态，具备适度限制性。我们在政策上可以慢慢来，谨慎行 事。 ...

智通财经4月9日电，美联储戴利表示，美联储政策处于非常良好的状态，具备适度限制性。美联储在政 策上可以慢慢来，谨慎行事。 ...

黄金前瞻关税政策激发衰退担忧，美联储艰难应对，黄金多头再发力？点击观看金十研究员文成直播分 析 相关链接 ...

翁富豪：3.25晚间双线操作精准布局 黄金交易需严守风控纪律 美联储政策立场边际调整与地缘政治谈判进展正对贵金属市场形成双向施压。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克最新表态将年内降息预期由两次修正为一次，叠加 关税政策对通胀进程形成的掣肘效应，而美联储主席鲍威尔强化"按兵不动"政策定力，强调美国经济基本面保持韧性，系列鹰派信号显著施压黄金多头动 能。 但经济数据显示潜在矛盾：3月标普全球制造业PMI终值录得49.8，较前值下降0.6个点，创三个月新低，显示制造业收缩压力加剧。该数据强化市场对经济 增长放缓的预期，为避险资产提供潜在支撑。 从4小时图自新高出现了一轮回调，但目前似乎在3000美元大关出现心理支撑，技术指标低位金叉并向上运行。介于早盘黄金短线突破3015一线短线冲高， 黄金继续维持底部看多思路。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上翁富豪建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注3033-3035一线阻力，下方 短期重点关注3000-3002一线支撑，各位一定要跟上节奏。要控制好仓位及止损问题、严格设止损，切勿抗单操作。具体点位以盘中实时为主，欢迎前来体 验，交流实时行情，关注实时单。 操作策略： 1.黄金 ...