受关税影响，沃尔沃汽车第二季度营业利润下降 金十数据7月17日讯，总部位于瑞典的沃尔沃汽车公司公布最新财报，第二季度调整后营业利润大幅下 降，并表示由于关税打击，需求仍面临压力。除去影响可比性的项目，其季度营业利润从上年同期的80 亿瑞典克朗（合2.98亿美元）降至29亿瑞典克朗。该公司表示："受消费者信心减弱和征收额外关税的 影响，需求仍然疲软且不稳定，这些因素继续对汽车行业构成挑战。"投资者和分析师正在密切关注该 公司的毛利率，以评估关税对其的影响。该公司毛利率从第一季度的18.2%降至13.5%，经一次性因素 调整后降至17.7%。沃尔沃汽车是欧洲第一家在即将到来的黯淡财报季中公布盈利数据的汽车制造商。 ...

Market Overview - US stock indices opened higher but experienced slight declines before rebounding slightly, with the Dow Jones at 44060.38 (+0.08%), Nasdaq at 20686.21 (+0.04%), and S&P 500 at 6246.34 (+0.04%) [2] - Chinese concept stocks showed weakness, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down over 2% [4] Economic Data - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June unexpectedly came in lower than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, compared to an expected 2.5% and a previous value of 2.6% [2] - Month-on-month PPI remained flat, marking the lowest since January, against an expected increase of 0.2% [2] Company-Specific News - ASML, a leading Dutch lithography equipment manufacturer, saw its stock drop over 10% due to concerns over the impact of US tariffs on its growth prospects [2][3] - ASML's CEO indicated that the company may not achieve growth by 2026 due to the effects of US tariff policies [3] - The semiconductor industry, including ASML, is increasingly vulnerable to potential US trade restrictions, with rising machine and chip prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [4] Chinese Tech Stocks - Major Chinese tech stocks experienced declines, with Baidu down over 7%, Alibaba down over 2%, and JD.com down nearly 2% [5][6] - The Wande Chinese Technology Leaders Index fell by 1.38%, and the Wande Chinese Stocks 100 Index decreased by 2.11% [5] Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures mostly declined, with copper down 0.19%, alumina down 1.24%, and coking coal down over 1% [6] - International crude oil, silver, and gold prices also saw significant drops [6] Economic Outlook - Bank of America forecasts that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates before next year, with expectations of moderate economic growth of about 1.5% by year-end [7] - The CEO of Bank of America noted that both personal and corporate clients continue to spend, seeking certainty in the market [7]

Inflation Trends - US inflation rebounded slightly in June, with CPI rising from 2.4% to 2.7% year-on-year[1] - Core CPI increased from 2.8% to 2.9% year-on-year, while month-on-month growth rose from 0.13% to 0.23%[6] - Food prices maintained a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, while energy prices rebounded from -1% to 0.9%[6] Market Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with the probability of no change in July rising to 96%[1] - The anticipated rate cut for the year has decreased from 48 basis points (bp) to 44 bp[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain rates in July, with potential cuts in September and either October or December[7] Employment and Demand - The job market shows signs of weakening demand, influenced by seasonal hiring patterns[1] - New and used car prices have declined, indicating reduced consumer demand[6] - Core service prices have shown a slight rebound, particularly in healthcare and leisure services, influenced by immigration policies[6] Future Projections - Inflation is expected to see a slight rebound in Q3 before gradually declining[1] - The CPI month-on-month growth is projected to peak around 0.4% in August-September[7] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is anticipated to become more pronounced, particularly in core goods[6]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月16日 美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 美国通胀温和上涨 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 季家辉 | 021-61761056 | jijiahui@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522010002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 7 月 15 日，美国劳工统计局发布 6 月 CPI 通胀数据：环比来看，整体 CPI 上涨 0.3%，核心 CPI 上涨 0.2%，分别较上月回升 0.2 和 0.1 个百分点。同比来看，整体 CPI 上涨 2.7%，核心 CPI 上涨 2.9%， 较上月回升 0.3 和 0.1 个百分点。 通胀走势：核心 CPI 通胀企稳 能源价格大幅反弹。6 月 CPI ...

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 通胀如期回升，美联储或继续观望 ——美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月，美国 CPI 上升略超预期，核心 CPI 符合预期。那么结构上的走势有何具体变化？ 对美联储降息有何影响？其一，地缘局势升温，使能源环比涨幅上升。其二，汽车、服装环比 一下一上，核心商品通胀压力上升；住房通胀环比增速回落，核心服务通胀压力温和。往前看， 我们认为：短期，美国就业稳健、通胀温和、关税暂缓期延长，美联储决策空间充足，7 月大 概率继续观望；中期，各国贸易谈判的结果仍是重点，关税实质落地规模，及其对美国经济的 影响将是决定后续货币政策的关键。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 通胀如期回升，美联储或继续观望 2] ——美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 ...

2025年7月16日 总量研究 关税影响逐步显性化 -2025 年 6 月美国 CPI 数据点评 要点 作者 事件: 分析师:高瑞东 1) 6 月美国 CPI 同比+2.7%, 前值+2.4%,市场预期+2.7%; 2) 季调后 CPI 环比 执业证书编号:S0930520120007 +0.3%,前值+0.1%，市场预期+0.3%; 3）核心 CPI 同比+2.9%,前值+2.8%,市 010-56513108 分析师:刘星辰 执业证书编号: S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 场预期+3.0%;4) 季调后核心 CPI 环比+0.2%,前值+0.1%,市场预期+0.3%。 美国通胀继续回落,关税冲击尚待显现 -- 2025 年 4 月美国 CPI 数据点评 (2025-05-14) 高关税如何影响美国通胀? -- 2025年3月 美国 CPI 数据点评 (2025-04-11) 美国通胀超预期回落,未来降息节奏如何? -- 2025 年 2 月美国 CPI 数据点评 (2025-03-13) 美国 CPI 数据点评 (2025-02-13) 美 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed a rebound, with overall CPI rising by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in the previous month, indicating the impact of tariffs on inflation [2][3] - Analysts predict that inflation in the U.S. may face upward pressure in the second half of 2025, with limited expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in July, and a maximum of two cuts possible within the year [1][4] Inflation Data Analysis - The core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.0%, while the "super core inflation" (excluding food, energy, and housing) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.12%, significantly higher than the previous months [2][3] - Prices for imported goods, particularly in categories like clothing, furniture, and entertainment, have started to rise, reflecting the transmission of tariff costs to consumers [3][6] Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the CPI report, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have shifted, with a 97% probability of maintaining rates in July and a reduced 53% chance of a cut in September [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the Fed will remain cautious due to ongoing inflationary pressures and the potential for further increases in core goods inflation driven by tariffs [6] Economic Context - The U.S. economy is experiencing a cooling effect under high interest rates, with expectations of a slowdown in the job market, which may influence the Fed's decisions on rate cuts later in the year [6] - The U.S. government is increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve, with discussions about the selection process for the next Fed chair, which could impact future monetary policy [6]

Inflation Data - The US June CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in May, while the core CPI rose by 2.9%, slightly below the expected 3.0%[2] - Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3%, exceeding the previous value of 0.1% and the 12-month average of 0.2%[2] - Core CPI month-on-month increased by 0.2%, matching the 12-month average but lower than the expected 0.3%[2] Tariff Impact - The report indicates that tariffs are beginning to affect goods inflation, while the transmission to services inflation remains insignificant[2] - The energy component saw a month-on-month increase from -1.0% to 0.9%, primarily due to a significant rise in gasoline prices[2] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices fell by 0.4% and 1.0%, respectively, while the Nasdaq index rose by 0.2%[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 4.8 basis points to 4.48%, and the dollar index rose by 0.5% to 98.6[3] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have slightly decreased, with the probability of a September cut dropping from 65% to 58%[3] - The likelihood of two rate cuts within the year has decreased from approximately 93% to 76%[3] Future Outlook - The report warns of ongoing inflationary pressures in the US, suggesting that expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts should be tempered[4] - Trade negotiations are critical, with the tariff exemption period ending soon, and the market anticipates low chances of reaching agreements with most countries[4]

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，美国6月通胀基本延续"岁月静好"的状态，核心CPI环比增速 连续第五个月低于预期，主因租金通胀和二手车价格降温。本次偏软的核心通胀不能验证"关税对通胀 影响轻微"的猜想，事实上中信证券构建的"进口含量高的CPI"等追踪指标显示关税已初步影响到美国进 口敏感型终端消费品价格。中信证券依旧认为美国通胀存在反弹隐忧，美联储7月降息的可能性小、年 内最多降息两次，美元持续走弱的空间或较有限，美债目前的配置吸引力可能仍不太强。 中信证券具体观点如下： 美国6月总体CPI环比如期升0.3%，核心CPI环比升0.3%（低于预期的0.2%），总体CPI同比升2.7%（高 于预期的2.6%），核心CPI同比如期升2.9%。四个读数都高于前值，核心CPI环比是连续第五个月低于 预期。 本次偏软的核心通胀是件好事，但不必太为此感到高兴，其可持续性存疑。 中信证券测算如果特朗普截至7月12日的"信函关税威胁"成真，假设USMCA豁免继续适用，则美国总体 有效关税税率将从目前约13.3%的水平进一步升至约16.9%，这将抬升美国PCE平减指数约1.1%、并在 长期降低美国GDP规模0.4%。中信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CPI report is perceived as somewhat subjective, showing slightly weaker data than some forecasts, but the impact of tariffs is expected to become more pronounced in July and August [1] Group 1 - The CPI data is slightly below expectations from various forecasting agencies [1] - The performance of commodity prices in June was relatively strong [1] - The report does not alter the fundamental views of those who believe the worst of tariff-driven price increases is yet to come [1] Group 2 - For those who think inflation transmission will be slower and less impactful due to companies striving to maintain market share in a weakening demand environment, the report also does not change their perspective [1]