看完特朗普"涨税"信函，日本终于反应过来，中国说的果然没错 事实上，日本历任首相，包括岸田文雄、菅义伟等，都与特朗普有过丰富的接触经验。部分日本官员认为，日本完全可以通过提供更多具体的数据或者订单 来展示自己在全球供应链中的重要性，从而让美国认识到日本的战略价值。因此，表面上让步，实际却是通过讨好美国、提供利益，试图让美国收手。 然而，纵观历史，美日之间的关系虽说是盟友，但几乎每隔十年左右，两国之间总会爆发一场关税争斗。从早期的钢铁、纺织品到家电、半导体，过去几轮 的关税冲突早已见惯不惊。如今，美日的矛盾主要集中在汽车等高利润的大宗商品上。外界普遍认为，尽管两国目前在贸易问题上关系紧张，但日本凭借丰 富的外交经验，表面上的败阵，或许是暂时的战术退让。 但问题是，这种应对策略是否真的有效呢？事实上，这也暴露了日本在美国面前急于寻求特殊待遇的心态。不可忽视的是，不仅仅是日本，越南、欧盟等其 他国家也在排队与美国谈判。在石破茂"觐见"特朗普时，他也毫不掩饰地将此次会谈成果公之于众。而日本甚至开始高举"台湾牌"，希望通过共同的战略利 益和军火采购来赢得美国的青睐。 然而，随着时间的推移，特朗普的态度逐渐冷淡，甚至在最 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and Brazil, particularly following President Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, which has been met with strong resistance from Brazilian President Lula [1][2][4]. Trade Policy Impact - The U.S. plans to impose high tariffs on goods from Brazil and 14 other countries starting August 1, 2025, significantly affecting Brazil's economy, especially its major exports like coffee, beef, and orange juice [4][6]. - Brazil's response includes legal measures to counteract the U.S. tariffs, indicating a readiness for a trade conflict [6][13]. Political Context - Trump's tariff decision appears to be politically motivated rather than economically justified, as the trade balance shows a surplus of $6.8 billion for the U.S. from Brazil [9][11]. - The tariffs are seen as a reaction to Brazil's shift in foreign policy under Lula, moving closer to China and away from U.S. influence [11][12]. Brazil's Economic Alliances - Brazil's economic ties with China are strengthening, with bilateral trade reaching $188.17 billion in 2024, compared to $72.2 billion with the U.S. [15]. - Brazil is diversifying its economic partnerships, reducing reliance on the U.S. market, and exploring new opportunities through cooperation with China [17][19]. Conclusion - The trade conflict highlights Brazil's determination to defend its economic interests and sovereignty against U.S. unilateralism, with China's role as a significant ally in this context [19].

金砖峰会刚刚落幕，特朗普便对本届峰会的主办国巴西发动了攻击，他以关税为武器，宣布对巴西加征高达50%的关税。这个税率极为惊人，哪怕是长期与 美国关系紧张的日本，其税率也远低于30%。显而易见，特朗普此举不仅是在向巴西施压，更是想借此震慑其他发展中国家，展现出美国的强硬态度。 在巴西被加征关税后，另一国的名字也出现在特朗普的关税名单上。不过与巴西不同，这个国家显然成了"冤大头"。那么，事情究竟是怎么一回事呢？ 特朗普的这一轮"关税攻势"将贸易战推向了新的高度。7月7日，他通过社交媒体宣布了对14个国家加征关税的名单，日韩两国赫然在列。尽管日本一直对美 国的政策持有强硬立场，但其政府依然表现出强烈的不满，认为特朗普此举是变相要求日本屈服，然而日本政界普遍认为，国家利益不应为了讨好美国而出 让。 而韩国则显得更加微妙。李在明刚刚上任，韩国政坛的稳定对他来说至关重要。美国在韩国的影响力一向深远，因此如果李在明表现得过于强硬，国内一些 反对派势力可能会借机攻击新政府。于是，李在明政府选择了较为温和的回应，表示将通过积极对话与美国解决分歧。 特朗普或许意识到，这一问题难以用经济数据来说服公众，于是他转向博尔索纳罗，试图借 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a dramatic reversal by restoring exports of EDA software, aircraft engines, and ethane to China, influenced by major companies like Intel and General Electric fearing a loss of billions in revenue [1] - The trade war that began in spring 2025 is seen as a textbook case demonstrating the failure of hegemonic thinking in a multipolar world and the conflict between unilateralism and systemic resilience [1][2] - Initial U.S. tariffs aimed at China were based on a misjudgment of the economic interdependence and the strategic resolve of China, leading to significant operational disruptions in U.S. industries [2][4] Group 2 - The U.S. government's attempt to isolate China through a "tariff alliance" backfired, as allies like the EU and Japan pursued their own interests, undermining U.S. efforts [4] - China's strategic depth in the market was highlighted by the rapid adaptation of its industries, such as the successful launch of domestic chip production and electric vehicle market penetration in Europe [4][5] - The economic backlash in the U.S. was swift, with rising prices for Chinese goods and declining consumer confidence, impacting major companies like Tesla [5][7] Group 3 - The political division within the U.S. exacerbated the situation, with the Federal Reserve resisting pressure to lower interest rates, leading to a perception of economic surrender [7] - The U.S. military faced urgent supply issues due to reliance on Chinese rare earth materials, while China had already prepared for such scenarios [7]

Group 1 - The current global economic environment is characterized by instability and uncertainty, with the US trade war significantly impacting the multilateral trade system and global supply chains [1][2] - China is committed to high-quality development, showcasing strong economic resilience and stable growth, with an expected increase of 35 trillion RMB in economic output over the past four years [2] - Technological innovation in China has led to advancements in high-performance chips, AI models, and robotics, contributing to a reduction of 11.6% in energy consumption per unit of GDP over the last four years [2] Group 2 - China has fully removed restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector, with cumulative foreign direct investment reaching 4.7 trillion RMB from 2021 to May this year, positioning China as a preferred investment destination [2] - The trade volume between China and the UK has consistently exceeded 110 billion GBP annually, with bilateral investment stock surpassing 130 billion GBP [2] - Green finance cooperation is advancing, highlighted by China's issuance of 6 billion RMB green sovereign bonds on the London Stock Exchange [2] Group 3 - The potential for cooperation in finance and education between China and the UK is significant, with China being the largest source of international students in the UK, totaling over 200,000 [2][3] - Both countries should focus on mutual respect and open collaboration to enhance cooperation across various sectors, creating a better environment for bilateral relations [3]

Group 1 - The EU is prepared to implement countermeasures against the US trade actions, with the first phase set to automatically take effect on July 14 [1][5] - The US has recently delayed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1, while also announcing new tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on multiple countries including Japan and South Korea [1][3] - The EU's trade dispute with the US focuses on specific industry tariffs, particularly in steel, automobiles, copper, and pharmaceuticals, with the EU seeking a swift resolution to protect its exports [3][5] Group 2 - The EU's response to US tariffs is driven by the potential negative impact on its exports, particularly in pharmaceuticals and automobiles, which could lead to increased prices and reduced sales in the US market [5][8] - Other countries, including Japan and South Africa, have expressed dissatisfaction with the US tariffs and are taking measures to protect their national interests [5][8] - The US tariff policies have raised concerns domestically and internationally, with analysts warning that they could lead to higher inflation and long-term economic losses that outweigh tariff revenues [8][10] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the US's tariff actions are aimed at pressuring other countries into trade agreements, but this approach risks damaging international trade and could provoke backlash from affected nations [10][12] - The ongoing trade dispute initiated by the US is seen as a threat to global trade order, with countries striving to protect their interests amid rising tensions [12]

Group 1 - The meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Kuala Lumpur is significant due to Rubio's previous sanctions by China, highlighting the complexities of U.S.-China relations [1][3] - The U.S. has announced high tariffs of 25%-40% on 14 countries, including six ASEAN nations, which casts a shadow over the ASEAN meetings focused on regional cooperation [1][3] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting as Southeast Asian countries are exploring alternatives, such as Vietnam's application to join BRICS and Singapore's expansion of digital RMB settlements, indicating a potential pivot away from U.S. influence [3][5] Group 2 - Trade policy is a central issue in the discussions, with the U.S. signaling unilateralism that creates uncertainty in global trade, particularly affecting industries reliant on Chinese exports [3][5] - Sovereignty issues, particularly regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea, are expected to be contentious topics, with China reaffirming its stance on the "One China Principle" [5][7] - The sanctions issue complicates the dialogue, as China's principle of "no dialogue with sanctioned individuals" may limit the formality of the meeting, necessitating Rubio to show sincerity for future engagements [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - Iran is unwilling to accept imposed peace and insists that negotiations must be based on mutual respect [1][2][3] Group 1: Negotiation Stance - Iranian officials emphasize that all past negotiations with the U.S. have revolved around three core issues: nuclear weapons development, missile issues, and regional influence [2] - Iran maintains that it has never sought to develop nuclear weapons and views uranium enrichment as an inalienable right [2] - Despite distrust, Iran acknowledges that diplomacy is a form of struggle and that negotiations provide a platform for dialogue [2] Group 2: Conditions for Future Negotiations - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif states that Iran is willing to negotiate on the basis of mutual respect but highlights past U.S. actions, including withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and military aggression, as threats to Iranian security [3] - There is a prevailing sentiment in Iranian media that the U.S. is untrustworthy in negotiations, and Iran must be cautious to avoid falling into traps set by the U.S. and Israel [3]

Group 1 - Wang Yi, the Foreign Minister of China, attended multiple East Asian cooperation meetings in Kuala Lumpur, including the China-ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting and the ASEAN Plus Three Foreign Ministers' Meeting [1] - China views ASEAN as a priority in its foreign diplomacy and supports ASEAN's central role in regional architecture, aiming to enhance cooperation and security in the region [1][2] - The Chinese government is committed to signing the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty Protocol and advancing the South China Sea Code of Conduct negotiations [1] Group 2 - Wang Yi emphasized the positive overall situation of East Asian cooperation, focusing on development and collaboration despite challenges from unilateralism and protectionism [2] - The Chinese government aims to enhance cooperation dynamics and resilience in development, promoting regional integration and a more interconnected East Asia [2] - China will continue to adhere to the principles of good-neighborliness and mutual benefit, injecting new momentum into regional development through its own stable growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall situation of East Asian cooperation is positive, focusing on development and collaboration, despite facing challenges from unilateralism and protectionism [1] Group 1: Key Points on East Asian Cooperation - Wang Yi, the Chinese Foreign Minister, attended multiple foreign ministerial meetings, emphasizing the importance of regional cooperation [1] - China aims to inject new momentum and provide new opportunities for regional development through its own stable growth [1] - The principles of good-neighborliness, mutual benefit, and shared destiny are highlighted as guiding policies for China's engagement in the region [1]