证券研究报告·公司点评报告·保险Ⅱ 执业证书：S0600524120004 | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 913789 | 1028925 | 1066394 | 1137642 | 1215854 | | 同比（%） | 3.8% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 85665 | 126607 | 135166 | 154369 | 176971 | | 同比（%） | -22.8% | 47.8% | 6.8% | 14.2% | 14.6% | | 每股 EV（元/股） | 76.34 | 78.12 | 82.73 | 87.51 | 92.30 | | PEV | 0.71 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.59 | [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 03 月 20 日 证券分析师 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Ltd. with a target price adjusted to HKD 89.00 from the previous HKD 94.00, indicating a potential upside of 43.1% from the current price of HKD 62.20 [3][8][11]. Core Insights - The new business value (NBV) growth remains resilient across various markets, with year-on-year increases of +23% in Hong Kong, +20% in Mainland China, +15% in Thailand, +15% in Singapore, +10% in Malaysia, and +18% in other markets, contributing to an overall expected NBV growth of 14% for 2025 [2][8]. - AIA has announced a new share buyback plan of USD 1.6 billion, which is expected to enhance shareholder returns to approximately 6% [7][8]. - The company's operating profit after tax (OPAT) is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year to USD 6.605 billion in 2024, with a slight increase in earnings per share (EPS) to USD 0.60 [8][9]. Financial Performance - The total market capitalization of AIA Group is approximately HKD 673.75 billion, with an average trading volume of HKD 2.09 billion in March [3]. - The company reported a total NBV of USD 4.712 billion, reflecting an 18% increase year-on-year, although the growth rate in the second half of 2024 is expected to slow down [7][8]. - The operating return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 14.8%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous year, indicating strong financial health [8][9]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 1.12x FY25E P/EV, which is at the lower end of its historical valuation range, suggesting significant upside potential [8][11]. - The report highlights that the dividend per share is expected to increase by 10% to USD 1.31, with an annual dividend yield of 3.1% [7][8]. - The adjusted target price reflects a valuation based on relative and appraisal methods, with the potential for further upward adjustments as shareholder returns and value growth progress [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][11][12]. Core Insights - The new business value (NBV) growth shows resilience, with a projected increase of 14% year-on-year for 2025, despite adjustments in economic assumptions due to declining long-term interest rates in mainland China [2][8]. - A new share buyback plan of US$1.6 billion is expected to enhance shareholder returns to approximately 6% [7][8]. - The company's target price is adjusted to HKD 89.00, reflecting a potential upside of 43.1% from the current share price of HKD 62.20 [3][8]. Financial Performance - The company's market capitalization is approximately HKD 673.75 billion, with an average trading volume of HKD 2.09 billion in March [3]. - The NBV growth rates for various markets are as follows: Hong Kong +23%, mainland China +20%, Thailand +15%, Singapore +15%, Malaysia +10%, and other markets +18% [2]. - The operating profit after tax (OPAT) is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year to US$6.605 billion in 2024, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to reach US$0.60 [8][9]. Shareholder Returns - The total shareholder return rate is expected to reach 6% in 2025, combining dividends and share buybacks [7][8]. - The dividend per share is projected to increase by 10% year-on-year to US$1.31, with an annual dividend of US$1.75, reflecting a 9% increase [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at 1.12x FY25E P/EV, which is at the lower end of its historical valuation range [8][11]. - The adjusted target price corresponds to a FY25E P/EV of 1.60x, indicating significant upside potential [11][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a record operating profit of 6.61 billion USD in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12% (fixed exchange rate) / 6.3% (actual exchange rate) [4][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 6.84 billion USD, up 84% (fixed exchange rate) / 81.6% [4][11] - New business value increased by 18% (fixed exchange rate) / 16.8% to 4.71 billion USD, with a year-end embedded value of 69.04 billion USD, up 2.4% from the beginning of the year [4][11] - The company announced an additional share buyback plan of 1.6 billion USD, reflecting confidence in its long-term operational performance [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported an operating profit of 6.61 billion USD, with a net profit of 6.84 billion USD, and a new business value of 4.71 billion USD [4][11] - The annual dividend per share was 1.75 HKD, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year [4] New Business Value - The new business value for 2024 was 4.71 billion USD, with quarterly growth rates of 26.9%, 14.8%, 16.8%, and 8.4% respectively [5] - The annualized new premium for 2024 was 8.61 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [5] Market Contributions - The new business value from the mainland China market grew by 17.4% to 1.22 billion USD, while the Hong Kong market contributed 1.76 billion USD, up 23.4% [6][7] - The company successfully opened new branches in major cities in mainland China, enhancing its market presence [6] Distribution Channels - The agent channel saw a 15.2% increase in new business value, while the partner distribution channel grew by 26.2% [10] - The company has maintained its position as the leader in the global Million Dollar Round Table membership for ten consecutive years [14] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 8.1 billion USD and 8.8 billion USD respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 9.8 billion USD [14] - The stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings value of 1.19, 1.10, and 1.03 for 2025-2027 [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group Limited is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a 2024 New Business Value (NBV) of USD 4.71 billion, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, which aligns with expectations [4] - The report anticipates a steady growth in NBV for 2025-2026, with projections of +10.8% and +10.2% respectively, and a new forecast for 2027 at +10.4% [4] - The company is recognized as a leader in the Asia-Pacific life insurance sector, with strong performance in its main business regions [4] Financial Performance Summary - The total premium and fee income for 2023 was HKD 32.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [6] - The intrinsic value increased to HKD 54.5 billion in 2024, reflecting a 2.1% year-on-year growth [6] - The NBV for 2024 is projected to be HKD 3.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is estimated at HKD 46.9 billion, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.4% [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 12.4 times, while the price-to-embedded value (P/EV) ratio is expected to be 1.1 times [6] Regional Performance - The NBV growth in various regions for 2024 is as follows: Mainland China +20%, Hong Kong +23%, Thailand +15%, Singapore +15%, Malaysia +10%, and other regions +18% [5] - The Mainland China market achieved an NBV of USD 1.22 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 20% [5] - Hong Kong's NBV reached USD 1.76 billion, benefiting from a rebound in individual insurance channels and strong demand for savings products [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group Limited is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a 2024 New Business Value (NBV) of USD 4.71 billion, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, which aligns with expectations [4] - The 2024 annualized new premium reached USD 8.61 billion, up 14% year-on-year, with a margin increase of 1.9 percentage points to 54.5% [4] - The after-tax operating profit increased to USD 6.605 billion, reflecting a 7% year-on-year growth [4] - The report projects NBV growth of 10.8% and 10.2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with an additional forecast of 10.4% for 2027 [4] - The company's strong liability performance and stable asset yield led to an upward revision of the 2025-2026 net profit forecast to HKD 52.7 billion and HKD 56.7 billion, respectively [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The total premium and fee income for 2023 was HKD 32.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [6] - The embedded value for 2024 is projected at HKD 55.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [6] - The new business value for 2024 is expected to be HKD 37 billion, reflecting a 16.8% year-on-year growth [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is forecasted at HKD 46.9 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.4% [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025 is estimated at 12.4 times, while the price-to-embedded value (P/EV) is projected at 1.1 times [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (1299.HK) with a current price of HKD 61.25 [1] Core Insights - In 2024, AIA achieved a record operating profit of USD 6.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12% (fixed exchange rate) / 6.3% (actual exchange rate). The net profit attributable to shareholders reached USD 6.84 billion, up 84% (fixed exchange rate) / 81.6% [4][11] - The new business value for 2024 was USD 4.71 billion, reflecting an 18% increase (fixed exchange rate) / 16.8% [4][11] - AIA announced an additional USD 1.6 billion share buyback plan, demonstrating confidence in its long-term operational performance [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - AIA's operating profit reached a record high of USD 6.61 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 12% (fixed exchange rate) / 6.3% (actual exchange rate) [11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 6.84 billion, marking an 84% increase (fixed exchange rate) / 81.6% [4][11] - The annual dividend per share was HKD 1.75, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year [4] New Business Value - The new business value for 2024 was USD 4.71 billion, up 18% (fixed exchange rate) / 16.8% year-on-year [4][11] - The annualized new premium for 2024 was USD 8.61 billion, reflecting a 12.5% increase year-on-year [5] - The new business value margin was recorded at 54.5%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [5] Market Performance - The new business value in the China mainland market grew by 17.4% to USD 1.22 billion, while the Hong Kong market contributed USD 1.76 billion, up 23.4% [6][7][14] - The new business value in Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia was USD 0.82 billion, USD 0.45 billion, and USD 0.35 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.4%, 15.2%, and 9.4% [8][14] Share Buyback and Future Outlook - AIA completed a USD 12 billion share buyback plan in February 2025 and announced a new USD 1.6 billion buyback plan, indicating strong confidence in future operational and financial performance [11] - The report projects net profit for 2025-2026 to be USD 8.13 billion and USD 8.84 billion respectively, with an upward revision from previous estimates [14][16]

证券研究报告 友邦保险 (1299 HK) 版 服 酒 2024: NBV 稳健增长,回购小幅延续 | 华泰研究 | | --- | | 2025 年 3 月 14 日 中国香港 | 友邦保险 2024年EPS USD0.62，高于我们的预测 USD0.56, 主要因投资 收益超预期:24年友邦新业务价值同比提升 18%(不变汇率),表现稳定; 每股营运利润同比提升 12%（不变汇率），表现较好。维持"买入"。 假设调整影响大陆市场 NBV 增速 2024 年友邦新业务价值(NBV)同比提升 18%(不变汇率,下同),主要 由大中华市场的高速增长带动。2024年中国香港市场 NBV 同比增长 23%， 其中内地访客和本地居民分别+22%/24%,在高基数下展现出增长韧性。中 国大陆市场 NBV 同比增长 20%,公司下调了大陆市场长期利率假设,在不 调整基数的情况下 4Q24 大陆市场 NBV 下滑 9%。考虑到友邦经营地域持 续扩张,我们看好友邦中国未来的增长潜力。此外,东南亚市场也保持稳健 增长,2024 年友邦泰国/新加坡/马来西亚 NBV 分别同比增长 15%/15%/10%。我们预计 2025年 N ...