1、关于新业务价值 2025年上半年，除中信保诚外，所有上市寿险公司新业务价值均实现了两位数增长！上市寿险行业整体增幅达31.3%。具体如下表所示： 先说结论： | 年份 | 中国人 | | | | 平安寿 太保寿 新华保 太平人 人保寿 友邦人 阳光人 | | | | 人保健康 | 中信保 | 合计 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 荒 | 同 | 公 | 公 | 寿 | Pop Sit. | 寿 | 去 | | 诚 | | | 2024H1 | 237 | - 160 | 72 | 39 | 50 | 29 | 49 | 27 | 25 | 21 | 710 | | 2025H1 | 285 | 223 | ેર | 62 | 62 | 50 | 54 | 40 | 38 | 23 | 933 | | 同比变化 | 20.3% | 39.8% | 32.3% | 58.4% | 22.9% | 71.7% | 10.0% | 47.2% | 51.0% | 7.6% | 31.3% ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is experiencing a significant recovery in new business value, with a year-on-year increase of 31.3% in the first half of 2025, driven by both volume and price growth across various companies [1][16][18]. Summary by Sections New Business Value - In the first half of 2025, all listed life insurance companies, except for CITIC Prudential, achieved double-digit growth in new business value, with the overall industry growth rate reaching 31.3% [1][16]. - The new business value for major companies includes China Life at 28.5 billion yuan (20.3% increase), Ping An Life at 22.3 billion yuan (39.8% increase), and others showing significant growth rates [18]. New Business Value Rate - The new business value rate for most listed life insurance companies increased significantly, with an overall rise of 6.7 percentage points in the first half of 2025 [3][22]. - Notable increases in new business value rates include Ping An Life at 26.1% (up 8.8 percentage points) and China Life at 32.4% (up 9.2 percentage points) [22][24]. New Policy Premiums - The overall new policy premium for listed life insurance companies reached 522.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.8% [28]. - However, there was a notable decline in new policy premiums from the agent channel, which dropped by 13.8%, while the bank insurance channel saw a substantial increase of 61.1% [31][39]. Market Dynamics - The insurance sector is transitioning from a "volume and price decline" phase (2018-2022) to a "volume and price increase" phase in 2025, indicating a healthier growth trajectory [48][51]. - The shift in market dynamics is attributed to the effectiveness of the "reporting and operation integration" policy and the adjustment of premium rates, which have improved the new business value rates significantly [40][41]. Agent Channel and Bank Insurance Channel - The agent channel is facing challenges with a decline in the number of agents and average productivity, while the bank insurance channel is experiencing robust growth, indicating a shift in sales strategy [42][39]. - The average productivity of agents decreased by 11.3%, highlighting the ongoing transformation within the agent channel [46]. Conclusion - The insurance industry is showing resilience and adaptability, with a clear trend towards high-quality development characterized by simultaneous growth in new business value and premiums, driven by strategic channel shifts and improved operational efficiencies [51][52].

Core Insights - The insurance companies listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong are shifting focus from premium growth to the contribution of new business value (NBV) in their performance reports [2][3] - Major insurance firms reported double-digit growth in new business value for the first half of the year, indicating strong market acceptance [2][3] Group 1: New Business Value Growth - China Ping An's new business value reached 22.335 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 39.8% [2] - China Life's new business value was 28.546 billion yuan, up 20.3% year-on-year [2] - China Pacific Insurance reported a new business value of 9.544 billion yuan, reflecting a 32.3% increase [2] - China People's Insurance saw a significant rise in new business value to 4.978 billion yuan, up 71.7% [2] - New China Life achieved a new business value of 6.181 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.8% [2] - AIA Group's new business value was 2.838 billion USD, marking a 14% increase [2] Group 2: Market Performance and Investor Sentiment - Despite limited growth in net profit for most insurance groups, insurance stocks have performed exceptionally well, with some doubling in value [3] - The strong performance of new business value has garnered market recognition, but the sustainability of this growth throughout the year remains a concern [3][9] - The shift from focusing on premium scale to new business value is seen as a necessary evolution in the domestic life insurance market [4] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - China Ping An emphasizes the importance of new business value, attributing its growth to multi-channel strategies, product-service integration, and AI empowerment [5] - AIA Group's growth is driven by proven business models, digital transformation, and structural improvements in new markets [5] - China Pacific Insurance's new business value growth is supported by enhanced management and a focus on dividend insurance sales [7] - New China Life is optimizing its business structure and improving operational efficiency to sustain new business value growth [8] Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - The insurance industry is transitioning from a focus on premium figures to the underlying value of new business, which reflects future profitability [10] - The ability of insurance companies to maintain double-digit growth in new business value and improve value rates in the second half of the year is under scrutiny [11]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance companies listed in Hong Kong and Shanghai are shifting focus from premium growth to the contribution of new business value (NBV), which has shown significant double-digit growth in the first half of the year [1][2][3]. Group 1: New Business Value Growth - Major listed insurance companies reported substantial growth in new business value, with China Ping An's NBV reaching 22.335 billion yuan, up 39.8% year-on-year; China Life's NBV at 28.546 billion yuan, up 20.3%; China Pacific's NBV at 9.544 billion yuan, up 32.3%; and China Insurance's NBV at 4.978 billion yuan, up 71.7% [1]. - AIA Group reported a new business value of 2.838 billion USD, reflecting a 14% increase year-on-year [1]. - The growth in NBV is seen as a key indicator of the companies' performance and has garnered market recognition, although the sustainability of this growth throughout the year remains a concern [2][8]. Group 2: Market Performance and Investor Sentiment - Despite limited growth in net profit for most insurance groups, insurance stocks have performed exceptionally well, with some doubling in value since the market downturn in September [2][8]. - The market is increasingly valuing new business value as a more reliable indicator of a company's operational capability and future profitability, moving away from traditional metrics like premium size [9][10]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - Companies are focusing on enhancing their business models, including digital transformation and AI integration, to drive new business value growth [4][5]. - China Pacific emphasized strengthening its management and sales capabilities, particularly in dividend insurance, which saw a significant increase in new premium income [5]. - New business value rates are critical for assessing the underlying value of insurance companies, and the ability to maintain double-digit growth in NBV will be crucial for future stock performance [10].

Core Insights - The performance of ten bank-affiliated insurance companies in the first half of 2025 shows a significant increase in premium income and net profit, indicating a strong growth trend in the sector [1][3]. Premium Income - The ten bank-affiliated insurance companies collectively achieved premium income of 3200.17 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.38%, outperforming the overall life insurance industry's growth rate of 6.6% [1][3]. - Among these companies, China Post Life Insurance led with premium income of 1180.72 billion yuan, a growth of 12.07% year-on-year [5]. - Other notable performers include: - CCB Life Insurance with 338.03 billion yuan, a growth of 22.88% - Agricultural Bank Life Insurance with 326.11 billion yuan, a growth of 24.20% - China Netherlands Life Insurance with 127.17 billion yuan, a growth of 36.48%, the highest among the group [4][5]. Net Profit - The total net profit for the ten companies reached 96.21 billion yuan, nearly doubling from 50.5 billion yuan in the same period last year, reflecting a growth of 90.51% [8]. - However, seven of the ten companies reported a decline in net profit compared to the previous year [8][11]. - Key net profit figures include: - China Post Life Insurance: 51.77 billion yuan, down 9.02% - Agricultural Bank Life Insurance: 7.43 billion yuan, down 33.72% - CCB Life Insurance: 5.65 billion yuan, down 5.68% - China Netherlands Life Insurance: 2.77 billion yuan, up 1631.25% [9][11]. Market Dynamics - The "bank-insurance integration" policy is expected to enhance the competitive advantage of bank-affiliated insurance companies by optimizing costs and focusing on product innovation and service upgrades [1][5]. - The average commission in the industry is projected to decrease by 30%, further influencing the market dynamics [5][6]. - The shift to new accounting standards has led to a divergence between profit growth and net asset reduction, with companies like China Netherlands Life Insurance and China CITIC Life Insurance experiencing significant net asset declines despite profit increases [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the new business profit margin as a more effective indicator for assessing the profitability of life insurance companies compared to the new business value ratio, particularly under the new insurance contract standards [1][6][10]. Summary by Sections New Business Profit Margin - The new business profit margin is calculated using the formula: New Business Profit Margin = (Current Initial Recognition of Insurance Contract Service Margin - Initial Recognition of Loss) / Present Value of Future Cash Inflows from Insurance Contracts [1][10]. - The 2024 new business profit margin for the life insurance industry (12 companies combined) is 8.2%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][18]. Company-Specific Profit Margins - In 2024, Taiping Life has the highest new business profit margin at 11.8%, followed by Zhongyou Life at 11.5%, and Taibao Health at 10.4% [4][17]. - For Ping An Life, the new business value ratio is 22.7%, while the new business profit margin is 8.7%, indicating that the latter is a more accurate reflection of profitability [5][22]. Comparison with New Business Value Ratio - The article discusses the limitations of the new business value ratio, which can be misleading as it does not accurately reflect the profit margin due to its calculation method [6][7]. - The new business value ratio is defined as the ratio of new business value to the first-year premium, which can lead to inflated perceptions of profitability when compared to other industries' sales net profit margins [7][24]. Financial Data Insights - The present value of new business premium income for China Life in 2024 is 812.1 billion yuan, making it the largest in terms of premium scale [12]. - The article provides detailed financial data for 2024, including estimates of future cash inflows and the impact of loss contracts on the overall profit margin [9][11]. Conclusion - The implementation of new insurance contract standards has enriched the financial disclosures of life insurance companies, allowing for a more nuanced analysis of profitability through the new business profit margin [6][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [21]. Core Insights - The insurance index rose by 1.03%, outperforming the market by 0.15 percentage points, with notable individual stock performances such as Xinhua (+5.94%) and Taiping (+5.64%) [2]. - China Ping An plans to issue HKD 11.765 billion in convertible bonds, with an initial conversion price of HKD 55.02 per share, aimed at supporting business development and capital needs [3][4]. - As of Q1 2025, Ping An's solvency ratios were 225% for comprehensive solvency and 189% for core solvency, indicating a strong capital position [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance sector showed a mixed performance with individual stocks varying significantly, where Xinhua and Taiping led the gains while Sunshine and Zhong An faced declines [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield was 1.65%, down by 2 basis points from the previous week [2]. Company Developments - China Taiping announced a new private equity fund with a target size of RMB 50 billion, focusing on state-owned enterprise reforms [3]. - Ping An Asset Management received regulatory approval to establish a private fund management company, targeting a first-phase fund size of RMB 30 billion [3]. Financial Metrics - As of June 3, 2025, the closing price of Ping An's H shares was HKD 46.45, with the proposed convertible bond's conversion price exceeding this by HKD 18.45, reflecting confidence in future stock price growth [5]. - The new business value (NBV) for Ping An increased by 35% year-on-year, with significant growth expected from the bancassurance channel [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the short term due to performance pressures but anticipates a recovery in the medium to long term as the industry adapts to interest rate changes and improves operational quality [5]. - Current price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for key companies are provided, with Ping An rated at 1.04 PB and a strong buy recommendation [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group Limited is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The new business value (NBV) for the first quarter of 2025 increased by 13% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the new business value rate [7] - The annualized new premium (ANP) reached 2.62 billion USD, reflecting a 7% year-on-year growth [7] - The NBV margin improved to 57.5%, up by 3 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for continued recovery in 2025 [7] - The company has initiated a share repurchase plan of 1.6 billion USD, which began on April 14 [7] - The forecast for after-tax operating profit for 2025-2027 is maintained at 7.24 billion, 7.98 billion, and 8.71 billion USD respectively, indicating a positive outlook [7] Financial Performance Summary - Insurance revenue is projected to grow from 19.31 billion USD in 2024 to 21.90 billion USD in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.43% [20] - After-tax operating profit is expected to increase from 6.61 billion USD in 2024 to 8.71 billion USD in 2027, reflecting a growth trajectory [20] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.64 USD in 2024 to 0.92 USD in 2027 [20] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 11.00 in 2024 to 7.66 in 2027, indicating potential undervaluation [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance with a significant increase in net profit and new business value (NBV) [1][6] - The life insurance segment's NBV growth is primarily driven by an increase in new business value rate [2] - The property insurance segment faced challenges with an increased claims ratio affecting the combined ratio (COR) [3] - The investment return rates have significantly improved, contributing to the overall profit increase [4] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 44.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.9% [1] - The operating profit attributable to shareholders was 34.43 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year [1] - The NBV for life insurance was 13.26 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.9% increase year-on-year [1] - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for property insurance was 98.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [1] Life Insurance - The NBV growth in 2024 was driven by an increase in the new business value rate, which rose by 3.5 percentage points to 16.8% [2] - New single premium decreased slightly by 4.1% year-on-year, with agent channel premiums increasing by 14% while bank insurance channel premiums decreased by 15.6% [2] - The company is focusing on high-quality transformation across various channels, expecting continued rapid growth in NBV [2] Property Insurance - The original insurance premium for property insurance was 201.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [3] - The claims ratio increased by 1.7 percentage points, impacting the overall COR, which rose to 98.6% [3] - The company is enhancing risk management and optimizing business structure to improve future COR [3] Investment - The total investment scale reached 2.73 trillion yuan, a 21.5% increase compared to the end of 2023 [4] - The net investment return rate was 3.8%, while the total investment return rate was 5.6%, showing a significant improvement [4] - The total investment income was 120.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130.5% [4] Assumption Adjustments - The company adjusted its long-term investment return rate assumption to 4.0% and the risk discount rate to 8.5%, resulting in a 23.3% decrease in NBV compared to previous assumptions [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain strong performance with projected net profit growth rates of 12%, 19.8%, and 26.8% for 2025-2027 [6] - The target price is set at 48.49 yuan, corresponding to a 0.78 times price to embedded value (PEV) for 2025 [6]