Global Market Performance - The global market shows increasing divergence, with US stocks and Indian markets leading the performance [1][3] - The A-share market has shown a decline of 1.21%, while the Indian Sensex30 has increased by 2.47% [1] - Vietnam's stock market experienced a significant drop of 7.29%, which was proactively avoided in asset allocation [1] Investment Strategies - The "Rui Ding Tou Global Version" portfolio achieved a return of 0.87% last week, bringing its total return since 2025 to 18.57% [6] - The portfolio's consistent positive returns over three years highlight the robustness and foresight of the global allocation strategy [6] - The strategy capitalizes on structural opportunities in AI-related assets, demonstrating a diversified global approach [6] Performance of Investment Combinations - The "Lazy Balanced Combination" recorded a return of 0.92% last week, with a year-to-date return of 12.87%, marking a historical high [11] - The "Rui Ding Tou Global Version" is designed for investors seeking higher returns with a tolerance for volatility, while the "Lazy Balanced Combination" is aimed at those preferring stability [12][15] - The difference in returns between the two combinations is approximately 18% versus 12%, catering to different investor profiles [12] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The overall market logic is characterized by a liquidity-driven structural differentiation [2] - The US stock market continues to show resilience despite geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [17] - The upcoming "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" is expected to introduce measures to consolidate economic growth, which may positively impact the A-share market [17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips considering the ongoing tightness in the mining end and the growth in infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are decent, and keep an eye on terminal demand. In the long run, hold at low prices [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, it is recommended to wait and see or consider short - selling LME zinc. For the internal - external spread, gradually take profits on long internal - short external spreads and watch for far - month reverse spreads. For the monthly spread, pay attention to the positive spread between December and February [2]. - For nickel, with a weak short - term real - world fundamental situation, it is advisable to wait and see due to ongoing disruptions in the Indonesian mining end and increased short - term macro uncertainties [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term macro uncertainties and some price - supporting motivation from Indonesian policies [8]. - For lead, expect narrow - range oscillations in the lead price next week between 17,000 - 17,300, and consider positive spreads [10]. - For tin, in the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systemic macro risk, the tin price may have a large downside. In the long - term, hold near the cost line on dips [12]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it will oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [13]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, supply and demand are both strong with a de - stocking trend. In the long - term, the elasticity of demand, especially with the increasing proportion of energy storage, is the key variable for a pattern reversal [14]. Group 3: Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 20, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 199, and there were various changes in inventory and import profitability indicators [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is influenced by tariff negotiations. Fundamentally, smelting production cuts are higher than expected, and there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week. Downstream price - fixing quantities and purchasing sentiment are acceptable, and the psychological price - fixing level has risen. Copper cable and aluminum cable starts have diverged [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices increased by 60, the domestic alumina price decreased by 5, and there were changes in inventory and premium indicators [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Production capacity is flat. Demand from photovoltaic components has stabilized. There was seasonal inventory accumulation during the holiday and significant post - holiday de - stocking. The global economic recovery and Fed rate - cut expectations coexist with Sino - US trade uncertainties, leading to a divergence in internal and external market trends [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 20, and there were changes in prices, inventory, and import profitability indicators. The LME C - 3M decreased by 113, and LME inventory decreased by 600 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price oscillated this week. On the supply side, domestic TC decreased, and imported TC increased. The domestic ore supply will be tighter from Q4 this year to Q1 next year, while overseas ore supply increased significantly in Q2. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas European demand is average. The domestic social inventory oscillated, and the LME inventory decreased [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 100, and there were changes in import profitability and LME - related indicators [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production remains at a high level. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating both domestically and overseas [4]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled sheets, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Steel mills' production in October increased slightly compared to the previous month. Demand is mainly from rigid needs. Costs of ferronickel and ferrochrome are stable. Inventory remains at a high level [8]. Lead - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 10, and there were changes in price spreads, inventory, and import profitability indicators [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The lead price oscillated slightly at a high level this week. On the supply side, scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and recycled lead production is expected to increase in October. On the demand side, battery production increased this week, but there is an expectation of weakening demand after the National Day holiday [10]. Tin - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the tin position decreased by 47, the LME C - 3M increased by 45, and the LME inventory decreased by 25 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The tin price oscillated this week. On the supply side, the processing fee for tin ore is at a low level, and supply is gradually recovering. On the demand side, the solder market warmed up slightly during the peak season, and domestic inventory decreased slightly [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased by 220, and the basis of 553 in East China and Tianjin also decreased by 220. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 367 [13]. - **Market Analysis**: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang resumed production this week. The overall supply of industrial silicon will decline in the dry season, but considering the maintenance of leading polysilicon enterprises, the supply - demand balance in Q4 is slightly loose [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 450, the basis of the main contract decreased by 2370, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 260 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The lithium carbonate price oscillated strongly this week. On the raw material side, the ore market is firm, and spot supply is tight. On the lithium salt side, consumption and de - stocking are better than expected [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips considering the ongoing tightness in the mining end and the growth in infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is advisable to hold at low prices in the long term while keeping an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, it is recommended to wait and see or consider shorting LME zinc. For the spread between domestic and overseas markets, gradually take profits on long domestic - short overseas positions and look for reverse spread opportunities in the far - month contracts. For the month - to - month spread, focus on the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, with a weak short - term fundamental situation and increased short - term macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term macro uncertainties and some price - support motivation from Indonesian policies [9]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and overseas lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,300, and positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. - For tin, follow the macro sentiment in the short term and wait and see. If there is a systematic macro risk, the tin price may have a large downward space. In the medium - to - long - term, buy at low prices near the cost line [13]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost in the medium - to - long - term [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply and demand are both strong in the short term, maintaining a de - stocking trend. In the long - term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for the pattern change [15]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market sentiment is mainly influenced by tariff negotiation progress. The impact of this tariff conflict is estimated to be no higher than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, when LME copper fell 12% and gold rose 2.6%. There is still room for negotiation, and the progress of the South Korea negotiation should be monitored [1]. - Fundamentally, the smelting reduction is more than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream's price - setting volume and receiving sentiment are acceptable, and the psychological price - setting level has significantly increased. The copper cable's recent start - up diverges from that of the aluminum cable, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the start - up stabilizes [1]. Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules on the demand side stabilizes, and the proportion of aluminum water in September has significantly rebounded. There is seasonal inventory accumulation in aluminum ingots and aluminum rods due to the holiday effect, but the post - holiday de - stocking amplitude is considerable, and the apparent demand rises [1]. - The global economic recovery signs are emerging, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthened, but the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations deepens, causing a certain divergence in the trends of domestic and overseas markets [1]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillates this week. On the supply side, the domestic TC further decreases, and the imported TC further increases. The domestic ore will be marginally tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas ore increment in the second quarter exceeds expectations. In August, China imported 460,000 tons of zinc ore, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43%. In October, the smelting end recovers slightly month - on - month, and the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on the total profit should be noted when the domestic ore processing fee declines [2]. - On the demand side, the domestic demand is seasonally weak and may continue to oscillate weakly after the peak season in September. Overseas, the European demand is average, and some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees. Domestically, the social inventory oscillates, while the overseas LME inventory decreases, and the visible inventory is close to the lowest level in the past two years. The export window has opened under the current situation of strong overseas and weak domestic markets, and some smelters and traders are preparing for exports [2]. Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remains at a high level. On the demand side, the overall demand is weak, and the premium has been stable recently. On the inventory side, both domestic and overseas inventories continue to accumulate. The short - term fundamental situation is weak [5]. - There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices. The short - term macro uncertainty increases [5]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, the steel mills' production schedule in October increases slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventory remains at a high level, and the warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The overall fundamentals are weak, with increased short - term macro uncertainties and some price - support motivation from Indonesian policies [9]. Lead - The lead price oscillates slightly at a high level this week. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year - on - year. The recovery of recycled lead profits is expected to lead to an incremental production of 20,000 - 30,000 tons in October. The macro sentiment combined with the shortage of waste batteries may drive recyclers to support prices. The concentrate mine's operation rate increases, and the high smelting profit of primary lead leads to a shortage of concentrates, with the TC quotation declining in a chaotic manner [10][11]. - On the demand side, the battery's operation rate increases this week, but the battery's finished - product inventory is high. After the National Day stocking, the demand is expected to weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 50, and the recycled lead production has gradually started to output. The LME registered warehouse receipts have decreased by 100,000 tons. There is an expectation of the peak season turning to the off - season in October. After the National Day, the downstream replenishes goods, and there is a short - term inventory - picking demand [11]. Tin - The tin price oscillates this week. On the supply side, the mining processing fee is at a low level. Some scattered orders have tentatively raised the quotation, but large - scale transactions have not occurred yet. The maintenance of Yunnan Tin has ended, and the supply has marginally recovered. Overseas, the import from Wa State in August is still low, but the recovery expectation in October is strong, and it is expected to maintain above 600 metal tons. The quota approval of Indonesia's PT Timah has been completed, and exports resumed in mid - to - late September. The Indonesian president announced that tin ingot exports will return to normal levels in 2026 [13]. - On the demand side, the solder peak season has a slight recovery, mainly supported by rigidity at high prices. After the festival, the arrival of goods is slow, and the domestic inventory decreases slightly. The overseas LME inventory oscillates at a low level. The domestic fundamentals show a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. Pay attention to the expected change of the peak season not being prosperous after the marginal recovery of supply at home and abroad in October and the impact of the interest - rate cut expectation on the non - ferrous metals as a whole [13]. Industrial Silicon - This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continue to resume production, with 35 furnaces in the west and 55 in the east. The number of operating furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan will significantly decrease in the future. The overall supply of industrial silicon will decline month - on - month during the dry season. Considering the maintenance of leading polysilicon enterprises, the supply - demand situation of industrial silicon in Q4 is still in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of 40,000 - 50,000 tons. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, the operating rate is low, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price oscillates strongly this week. On the raw material side, the mining end continues to support prices. Due to the significant reduction of the previous inventory, the holders' reluctance to sell is strong, and the spot market is tight. On the lithium salt side, the consumption trend and de - stocking level continuously exceed expectations. With the acceleration of warehouse receipt cancellation this week, the basis of first - tier brands also runs strongly [15]. - In the short term, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the overall de - stocking trend is maintained. It is expected to de - stock 8,000 - 10,000 tons in October. At the end of the year, there are multiple expected games such as the weakening of power demand in the off - season, the sustainability of energy - storage demand, and the supply disturbance in Jiangxi. In the long - term pattern, the supply growth rate at the current price is relatively certain, and the subsequent elasticity of the demand side with the increasing proportion of energy - storage is the key variable for the pattern change [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant adjustments made by public funds in their stock holdings during the third quarter, particularly focusing on companies in the robotics and AI sectors, as evidenced by the recent disclosures of quarterly reports from listed companies [1][2]. Group 1: Public Fund Adjustments - As of October 21, 328 stocks have seen public funds appear among their top ten circulating shareholders, with over 200 stocks having active equity funds involved [1]. - Notably, the stock Dongshan Precision (002384.SZ) has attracted attention from several public funds, with the Ruiyuan Growth Value Fund becoming the fifth largest shareholder, holding 21,341,710 shares, marking its return to the top ten shareholders after a previous reduction [2][3]. - The fund's previous reports indicated a significant reduction in holdings last year, but it has since increased its stake, indicating a renewed interest in the stock [3]. Group 2: Specific Fund Activities - The Xingquan Helun Fund, managed by Xie Zhiyu, has also entered the top shareholders of Dongshan Precision with a new holding of 11,775,300 shares, marking its first significant investment in the company [4]. - Conversely, the Morgan Emerging Power Fund, managed by Du Meng, has reduced its holdings in Dongshan Precision by 123,140 shares, indicating a shift in strategy [4]. - In addition to public funds, insurance companies like Xinhua Life have also shown interest in Dongshan Precision, while China Life has reduced its stake [5]. Group 3: Sector Performance and Outlook - Dongshan Precision's AI business is expected to drive growth, with plans to acquire 100% of Solstice, which will enhance its position in the optical communication market [5]. - Longyuan Donggu's third-quarter report shows six public funds among its top ten shareholders, with the Fuguo Steady Growth Fund newly entering with 2,300,000 shares [5][6]. - The company is focusing on the new energy sector and has seen significant growth in sales of hybrid vehicle components, while also advancing in robotics [7]. Group 4: Broader Market Trends - The food sector, particularly Wancheng Group, has also attracted significant investment from public funds, with the Dongfanghong Qiheng Fund increasing its holdings by over 60% in the third quarter [9]. - In the energy equipment sector, Lanke High-tech has gained favor among public funds, with new investments from multiple funds, indicating a positive outlook for the company as it expands into emerging fields [9].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The market is still dominated by the progress of tariff negotiations. For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips, considering selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventory. For aluminum, keep an eye on terminal demand in the short - term and hold on dips in the long - term. For zinc, suggest waiting and watching or considering shorting LME zinc, gradually taking profits on long - short spreads and looking for far - month reverse spreads, and paying attention to the 12 - 02 long - short spread. For nickel, suggest waiting and watching due to short - term weak fundamentals and increased macro uncertainties. For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak with short - term macro uncertainties and some price - supporting motivation from Indonesian policies. For lead, expect prices to fluctuate narrowly between 17,000 - 17,300 and consider long - short spreads. For tin, wait and watch in the short - term and hold on dips near the cost line in the long - term. For industrial silicon, expect prices to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and cycle at the bottom based on seasonal marginal costs in the long - term. For lithium carbonate, it shows a strong supply - demand pattern in the short - term, and the elasticity of demand is the key variable in the long - term [1][2][4][8][10][12][13][14] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market is influenced by tariff negotiations. The impact of this tariff conflict is estimated to be no higher than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The smelting reduction is higher than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream's psychological price for point - pricing has risen. Copper cable and aluminum cable's operations have diverged. Maintain a buying - on - dips strategy and pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1] Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production of photovoltaic components has stabilized. There is seasonal inventory accumulation for aluminum ingots and rods, but post - holiday inventory reduction is significant. The global economic recovery is showing signs, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation is strengthening, but Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain. The short - term fundamentals are okay [1] Zinc - The price fluctuates this week. The domestic TC decreases, and the imported TC increases. The domestic zinc ore will be tighter from Q4 this year to Q1 next year, while overseas ore production increased more than expected in Q2. The smelting in October has slightly recovered. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The domestic social inventory fluctuates, and the LME inventory is decreasing. The export window has opened [2] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level. The demand is weak, and the premium is stable. Both domestic and overseas inventories are increasing. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian ore end, and the policy has price - supporting motivation. The short - term fundamentals are weak [3][4] Stainless Steel - The steel mills' production in October has slightly increased. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. The inventory is at a high level [8] Lead - The price fluctuates slightly at a high level. The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. The recycled lead production is expected to increase by 2 - 3 tons in October. The battery production rate has increased, but the finished - product inventory is high, and the demand is expected to weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 50. The LME registered warehouse receipts have decreased by 100,000 tons. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 17,000 - 17,300 next week [9][10] Tin - The price fluctuates. The ore processing fee is at a low level. The supply has marginally recovered after the Yunnan Tin's maintenance. Overseas imports from Wa State are expected to recover in October, and Indonesia's exports have resumed. The demand for solder has slightly improved during the peak season. The domestic inventory has slightly decreased, and the LME inventory is at a low - level [12] Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's leading enterprises continue to resume production, while the production in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly during the dry season. The supply - demand in Q4 is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of 4 - 5 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and cycle at the bottom in the long - term [13] Lithium Carbonate - The price fluctuates strongly. The ore end continues to hold prices, and the spot is tight. The consumption and inventory reduction of lithium salts exceed expectations. The supply - demand is strong in the short - term, with an expected inventory reduction of 8,000 - 10,000 tons in October. The elasticity of demand is the key in the long - term [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is still dominated by the progress of tariff negotiations. The impact of this tariff conflict is not expected to be higher than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. There is still room for negotiation, and attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations with South Korea. For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and long - term holding on dips is recommended. Keep an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are poor, but the export window may open. In the face of increasing macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see or consider shorting LME zinc. For spreads, pay attention to the positive spread opportunities between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian mining sector and increasing short - term macro uncertainties, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak. There is short - term macro uncertainty, and the Indonesian policy side has a certain motivation to support prices [9]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and international lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,300. Positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. - For tin, the short - term domestic fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand. In the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. In the long term, buy on dips near the cost line [13]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [14]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, supply and demand are both strong, and the de - stocking trend is maintained. In the long term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for pattern reversal [15]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the spot price of Shanghai copper remained stable, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 554, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1530, and the import profit decreased by 246.01 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is affected by tariff negotiations. The smelting reduction is higher than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream's psychological price for pricing has increased. The copper cable's operation is different from that of the aluminum cable. Maintain a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots decreased by 20, the domestic alumina price decreased by 11, and the LME inventory decreased by 4100 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating capacity is flat. The demand for photovoltaic modules has stabilized. There is seasonal inventory accumulation during the festival, and the post - festival de - stocking is significant. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and long - term holding on dips is recommended [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 20, the LME C - 3M increased by 93, and the LME inventory decreased by 700 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic TC decreases, and the imported TC increases. The domestic mine is tightening, and the overseas mine has an unexpected increase. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is average. The export window has opened [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 150, the LME inventory decreased by 48, and the LME C - 3M decreased by 3 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing both at home and abroad. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian mining sector and increasing short - term macro uncertainties, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel mill's production in October increases slightly. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remain stable. The inventory remains at a high level, and the fundamentals are weak [9]. Lead - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the spot premium increased by 15, the LME inventory decreased by 3100, and the LME C - 3M remained unchanged [10][11]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply may increase by 2 - 30,000 tons in October. The demand is expected to weaken. The inventory is at the historical average level. It is expected that the lead price will oscillate narrowly next week, and positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. Tin - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the tin position decreased by 1300, the LME C - 3M increased by 30, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is marginally repaired. The demand is slightly warmer during the peak season. The short - term domestic fundamentals show weak supply and demand. In the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. In the long term, buy on dips near the cost line [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the 421 Yunnan, 421 Sichuan, 553 East China, and 553 Tianjin basis all decreased by 135, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 811 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply will decrease in the dry season. In Q4, the supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 650, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 19 [14][15]. - **Market Analysis**: The raw material side is firm, and the lithium salt consumption and de - stocking exceed expectations. In the short term, supply and demand are both strong, and the de - stocking trend is maintained. In the long term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for pattern reversal [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For copper, maintain a callback buying strategy considering the continuous tightness of the mine end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is recommended to hold at low prices in the long term while keeping an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but the potential opening of the export window, it is advisable to wait and see or focus on short - selling opportunities for LME zinc. Consider gradually taking profits on long - short spreads between domestic and foreign markets and focus on reverse spreads in the far - month contracts. Also, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, with weak short - term fundamentals and increasing short - term macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with short - term macro uncertainties and potential price - supporting motives from Indonesian policies [9]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and foreign lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,300, and positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. - For tin, in the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systematic risk in the macro, the tin price has a large downside space. In the medium - to - long term, hold at low prices close to the cost line [13]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [14]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, supply and demand are both strong with a de - stocking trend. In the long term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for pattern reversal [15]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market conditions are dominated by tariff negotiation progress. The impact of this round of tariffs is not higher than that of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival perturbation when LME copper dropped 12% and gold rose 2.6%. There is still room for negotiations, and the progress of the South Korean negotiation should be monitored [1]. - Fundamentally, the smelting reduction is higher than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream price - fixing quantity and receiving sentiment are acceptable, and the downstream price - fixing psychological price has significantly increased. The copper cable and aluminum cable starts have a significant divergence, and attention should be paid to whether the start stabilizes [1]. Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules on the demand side has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum in September has significantly rebounded. There is seasonal inventory accumulation for aluminum ingots and bars due to the festival effect, and the de - stocking amplitude after the festival is considerable, with the apparent demand rising [1]. - The global economic recovery signs are emerging, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthened, but the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations has deepened, resulting in a certain divergence in the trends of domestic and foreign markets [1]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillates this week. On the supply side, domestic TC further decreases, and imported TC further increases. The domestic zinc ore will be marginally tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas ore increment in the second quarter has exceeded expectations. In August, China imported 460,000 tons of zinc ore, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43%. In October, the smelting side has a slight month - on - month recovery [2]. - On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak and may continue to oscillate weakly after the September peak season. Overseas, the European demand is average, and some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees. Domestically, the social inventory oscillates, and the overseas LME inventory is decreasing, with the visible inventory approaching the lowest level in the past two years [2]. Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remains at a high level. On the demand side, it is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. In terms of inventory, both domestic and overseas inventories are continuously increasing [5]. - There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian ore end, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices. The short - term macro uncertainty has increased [5]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, the steel mill's production schedule in October has a slight month - on - month increase. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of cost, the prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remain stable. In terms of inventory, the inventory remains at a high level, and the warehouse receipts are stable [9]. Lead - This week, the lead price oscillates slightly at a high level. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year - on - year. The recovery of recycled lead profits is expected to lead to an incremental production of 20,000 - 50,000 tons in October. The macro sentiment combined with the tight supply of waste batteries may drive recyclers to support prices. The concentrate production has increased, and the high smelting profit of primary lead has led to a shortage of concentrates, with the TC quotation declining in a chaotic manner [11]. - On the demand side, the battery start - up rate has increased this week, but the battery finished - product inventory is high. After the National Day stocking, the demand is expected to weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 50, and the recycled lead production has gradually started discharging materials [11]. Tin - This week, the tin price oscillates. On the supply side, the ore processing fee is at a low level. Although some scattered orders have tried to raise the quotation, large - scale transactions have not occurred. The maintenance of Yunnan Tin has ended, and the supply has marginally recovered. Overseas, the import from Wa State in August was still low, but the recovery in October is highly expected, with an expected maintenance of over 600 metal tons. The export of Indonesia's PT Timah has resumed in mid - to - late September, and the Indonesian president announced that the tin ingot export will return to normal in 2026 [13]. - On the demand side, there is a slight recovery during the solder peak season, mainly supported by rigid demand at high prices. After the festival, the arrival of goods is slow, and the domestic inventory has slightly decreased. The overseas LME inventory oscillates at a low level [13]. Industrial Silicon - This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continue to resume production, with 35 furnaces in the west and 55 furnaces in the east. Subsequently, the number of operating furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan will significantly decrease. In the dry season, the overall supply of industrial silicon will decline month - on - month. Considering the maintenance of leading polysilicon enterprises, the supply and demand of industrial silicon in Q4 will be in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of 40,000 - 50,000 tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - This week, the lithium carbonate price oscillates strongly. On the raw material side, the ore end continues to support prices, and holders are reluctant to sell due to the significant reduction of previous inventories, resulting in a tight spot market [15]. - On the lithium salt side, the consumption trend and de - stocking level continue to exceed expectations. With the acceleration of warehouse receipt cancellation this week, the basis of first - tier brands also runs strongly. In the short term, supply and demand are both strong, and there is a de - stocking trend. In October, the de - stocking level is expected to be 8,000 - 10,000 tons. At the end of the year, there are multiple expected games such as the weakening of power demand in the off - season, the sustainability of energy - storage demand, and supply disturbances in Jiangxi [15].

Market Overview - Over 4,700 stocks declined with a trading volume of 19.5 trillion, indicating a significant capital outflow from major players, leading to a "mini stock disaster" in the A-share market [1] - Mysterious funds entered the market towards the end of trading, purchasing 230 million in stocks like BYD and Tom Cat, suggesting a potential setup for a rebound next week [1] Policy and External Factors - The central bank's sudden call to "attract foreign investment" combined with signals of tariff easing led to a surge in A50 and Hong Kong futures [3] - This policy shift appears to be a strategy by major players to create a false rebound to attract retail investors [3] Market Sentiment and Historical Context - Historical data indicates that over 80% of rebounds during periods of declining sentiment are opportunities for major players to offload stocks [5] - The "fishing" tactic of major players is likely to repeat next week, with retail investors warned to be cautious of three traps: high-tech stocks' rebounds, sudden late-session stock surges, and low-volume rebounds [6] Defensive Assets and Sector Performance - Defensive assets have become a safe haven, with the precious metals sector rising against the trend, and bank stocks attracting 200 billion from insurance funds due to dividend yields exceeding 4% [8] - The previously hot AI sector, despite favorable news, lacks performance support from the application end [8] Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies - Key technical levels to watch include the 3,885-point support for the Shanghai Composite Index and the 3,000-point level for the ChiNext Index [8] - Analysts suggest that if the index fails to break through the 5-day moving average during a rebound, selling is the best option [9] Market Dynamics and Trading Behavior - Quantitative trading has intensified market volatility, with a trading volume of 1.1 trillion being a "hunting zone" for quant funds [11] - The behavior of foreign capital, which tends to sell before buying back, contrasts sharply with domestic major players [8] Investment Opportunities and Risks - The innovative drug sector is gaining traction due to the ESMO annual meeting, while low-valuation blue chips are seen as defensive choices [13] - The upcoming third-quarter reports are expected to reveal underperforming stocks, particularly those that have seen significant price increases [14] Global Market Interconnections - Increased interconnectivity in global markets is noted, with the impact of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction affecting foreign capital flows [15][16] - The A-share market's rebound on October 15 coincided with a rise in Hong Kong stocks, although such correlations are often short-lived [17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market turmoil signifies the end of a prolonged period of calm in the U.S. stock market, driven by multiple negative factors, indicating that market tranquility is often a precursor to volatility [1][4]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The VIX index, known as the "fear index," surged to 28.99, the highest level since late April, reflecting heightened investor anxiety and expectations of increased volatility [1]. - Investors are aggressively buying options that profit when the VIX reaches 47.5 and 50, showcasing collective anxiety about a looming market storm [2]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - The resurgence of trade war threats, particularly following Trump's social media announcement about potential new tariffs, triggered significant market declines, ending a 33-day period of minimal volatility for the S&P 500 [4]. - Regional bank failures, highlighted by Zions Bancorp's substantial bad debt losses, have intensified concerns about the banking system's fragility, reminiscent of earlier bankruptcies [4]. - The once-prominent AI stocks are now facing skepticism, with some investors questioning whether the AI hype has turned into a dangerous bubble, drawing parallels to the late 1990s internet bubble [5]. Group 3: Market Behavior - A notable shift in capital is occurring, with funds moving from high-risk assets to defensive sectors such as utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples, indicating a "flight to safety" behavior among investors [5]. - High-risk assets, including Bitcoin, have experienced significant declines, with Bitcoin dropping 8.7% in its worst weekly performance since February, reflecting a shift from a "greed" to a "fear" mode among investors [5]. Group 4: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts are divided, with optimists viewing the market adjustment as a healthy sign that prevents excessive overvaluation, while pessimists warn that the current high valuations, particularly in tech stocks, may indicate a dangerous bubble [6]. - Historical comparisons are being drawn to past market events, suggesting that while current conditions share similarities with previous bubbles, each market turmoil has unique contexts and causes [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing significant volatility due to multiple uncertainties, including trade war threats, regional bank loan defaults, and skepticism surrounding the AI bubble, marking the most turbulent period since April [1][4]. Market Volatility - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) reached a peak of 28.99, the highest level since late April, indicating heightened market fear and expectations of continued volatility [2]. - Investors are increasingly buying options that profit when the VIX rises to 47.5 and 50, reflecting growing concerns about market stability [4]. Economic Concerns - Recent declines in regional bank stocks have raised fears about the credit market, suggesting that the U.S. economy may be weaker than it appears, compounded by renewed trade war threats that could lead to a recession [4][5]. - The market's reaction to former President Trump's threat of new tariffs resulted in the largest single-day drop since April, ending a record period of calm in the S&P 500 [5]. Sector Performance - Despite strong earnings reports from major banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America, the regional banking sector has faced sharp declines due to significant bad debt losses reported by Zions Bancorp [5]. - Defensive sectors such as utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples have recently outperformed, contrasting with the poor performance of banks and energy companies [5]. High-Risk Investments - High-risk assets, including Bitcoin, have seen substantial declines, with Bitcoin dropping approximately 8.7%, marking its worst weekly performance since February [6]. - Popular stocks like Opendoor Technologies have also experienced significant losses, down 5.4% [6]. Market Sentiment - Some industry insiders believe the recent market downturn does not indicate a long-term sell-off, viewing the adjustment as a healthy correction after a rapid market rise [7]. - Concerns persist regarding the market's vulnerability to shocks, as elevated valuations of large-cap stocks may mask underlying issues, reminiscent of the late 1990s tech bubble [8][9].