Market Overview - In August 2025, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated between 7.1030 and 7.2106, indicating a trend of appreciation[2] - The onshore RMB rate ranged from 7.1330 to 7.2106, while the offshore RMB rate fluctuated between 7.1209 and 7.1929[2] Influencing Factors - The market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September rose to 90.5% by September 3, up from 62.6% on July 26[2] - Key factors driving this expectation include a lower-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls (73,000 vs. 110,000 expected) and President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve[3] - China's total electricity consumption in July reached 1,022.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, reflecting economic resilience[3] Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to maintain a fluctuating appreciation trend in September 2025, with a projected range of 7.00 to 7.25[5] - China's enhanced international standing, showcased by events like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and the 80th anniversary military parade, is expected to increase the attractiveness of Chinese assets[7] - Despite the bullish sentiment, rising inflation and relatively low unemployment in the U.S. do not support a rate cut, which may temper expectations[7]

Group 1: Currency and Economic Trends - The RMB has shown a gradual appreciation against the USD since July, with signs of accelerated upward movement expected in the short term [1] - On August 28, both onshore and offshore RMB quickly appreciated against the USD, breaking through multiple key levels, indicating a potential convergence towards the central parity [1] - Future movements in the RMB exchange rate will depend on factors such as "carry trade" reversals and the central parity's guidance [1] Group 2: Housing and Related Industries - Improvement-driven housing demand is expected to significantly boost consumption across various sectors, including home appliances, furniture, textiles, and electronics [2] - The construction and usage of housing will generate substantial digital, electronic, and informational demands, leading to a chain reaction of consumption [2] Group 3: Cultural and Tourism Insights - The importance of cultural assets in cities is emphasized, with a strong opposition to transforming tourist spots into mere "check-in" locations [3] - The competition among cities is viewed as a struggle for cultural narrative control, which is essential for future urban development [3] Group 4: Stock Market and Investment Outlook - The US stock market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, driven by breakthroughs in the AI sector and expectations of a soft landing for the US economy [4] - With the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the investment value of high-quality fixed income assets is gaining attention [4] - There is an upward revision of gold price expectations, highlighting its role in portfolio diversification and geopolitical risk hedging [4]

中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年9月5日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元 对人民币7.1064元，1欧元对人民币8.2953元，100日元对人民币4.7992元，1港元对人民币0.91103元，1 英镑对人民币9.5689元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6426元，1新西兰元对人民币4.1681元，1新加坡元对人 民币5.5225元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8380元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1528元，人民币1元对1.1311澳门 元，人民币1元对0.59356马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.3902俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.4954南非兰 特，人民币1元对195.45韩元，人民币1元对0.51572阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.52691沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对47.3641匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51240波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9000丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.3286瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4158挪威克朗，人民币1元对5.79156土耳其里拉，人民币1元对 2.6326墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.5296泰铢。 9月5日，人民币兑美元中间价下调12个基点，报7.1 ...

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，往后看，伴随美联储恢复降息，以及特朗普政府关税政策对美国经 济冲击逐步显现，美元指数还将承受一定下行压力；但上半年美元跌幅巨大，后期也会有较强的抗跌韧 性。国内方面，外部波动对我国出口的影响会逐步显现，而逆周期调节政策适时加力将确保经济运行基 本稳定，这方面有充足的政策空间。由此，接下来人民币汇率仍将以稳为主，持续升值或大幅贬值的风 险都不大。 北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）9月5日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外 汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.1064元，相较前一交易日中间价7.1052元，调贬12个基点， 本周累计调升71个基点。 截至最新发稿时间9时48分，在岸人民币对美元报7.1385，日内升值0.02%；离岸人民币对美元报 7.1373。 ...

中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年9月5日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1 美元对人民币7.1064元，1欧元对人民币8.2953元，100日元对人民币4.7992元，1港元对人民币0.91103 元，1英镑对人民币9.5689元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6426元，1新西兰元对人民币4.1681元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.5225元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8380元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1528元，人民币1元对1.1311 澳门元，人民币1元对0.59356马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.3902俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.4954南 非兰特，人民币1元对195.45韩元，人民币1元对0.51572阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.52691沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对47.3641匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51240波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9000丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3286瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4158挪威克朗，人民币1元对5.79156土耳其里拉，人民币1 元对2.6326墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.5296泰铢。 （责任编辑：魏京婷） 中国经济网北京9月5日讯 今日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of offshore RMB local government bonds in multiple regions is expected to enhance the internationalization of the RMB, providing more asset allocation options for international investors and promoting the circulation and use of RMB in international financial markets [1][4]. Group 1: Offshore RMB Bond Issuance - Hainan Province plans to issue up to 5 billion RMB in offshore local government bonds in Hong Kong by September 2025, with maturities of 3, 5, and 10 years, including sustainable development, blue, and aerospace-themed bonds [3]. - Shenzhen City also announced plans to issue a total of 5 billion RMB in offshore local government bonds in Macau and Hong Kong, with initial maturities set for 2, 3, 5, and 10 years [3]. - Guangdong Province successfully issued 2 billion RMB in offshore local government bonds in Macau, marking the fifth consecutive year of such issuances, with funds allocated for blue projects, regional cooperation, and green projects [4][5]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB has shown strong appreciation momentum, with the onshore and offshore RMB against the USD remaining above 7.15, reaching a peak of around 7.12 [6]. - As of September 4, the RMB's central parity against the USD was reported at 7.1052, an increase of 56 basis points, with onshore and offshore rates showing slight daily appreciation [6]. - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to factors such as expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and increased foreign capital inflow into the domestic stock market [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB - Analysts expect the RMB exchange rate to remain strong and gradually return to a "three-price unification" as year-end approaches, with continued demand for currency exchange supporting the RMB's strength [8]. - The current domestic fundamentals are seen as providing a stabilizing effect on the exchange rate, although the bond market may face outflow pressures [8].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around whether the RMB/USD exchange rate will break the "7" level is increasing, with analysts suggesting that multiple factors will influence this outcome, including the China-US interest rate differential, the willingness of holders to convert currency, and the RMB central parity rate. Overall, the probability of breaking 7 in the short term is considered low [2][3][4]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - In the last week of August, the RMB appreciated significantly against the USD, reaching a high of 7.1260 on August 29, the highest since November of the previous year. Despite a slight pullback in September, the RMB has appreciated over 2100 points, or nearly 3%, from its low of 7.3506 in early April [2][3]. - The RMB's performance in 2023 has been volatile, with initial appreciation in a weak USD environment, followed by depreciation due to concerns over global trade after the announcement of US tariffs in April, and subsequent recovery after high-level China-US economic meetings [2][3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent rapid appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a combination of the Federal Reserve's policy shift, domestic policy guidance, and market sentiment. The Fed's hints at potential interest rate cuts have created a favorable external environment for RMB appreciation [3][4]. - The RMB's exchange rate against a basket of currencies has shown a decline of 4.8% since the end of last year, with the CFETS RMB exchange rate index reported at 96.57 on August 29 [3][4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Differential and Market Sentiment - The interest rate differential between China and the US has narrowed significantly, with the 10-year Chinese bond yield rising over 20 basis points since June, while the US bond yield has decreased from 4.5% to around 4.2%. This has led to a reduction in the nominal interest rate differential by nearly 50 basis points [5]. - Analysts suggest that while a weak USD environment supports RMB appreciation, factors such as weak export expectations and the need for domestic demand recovery will require a steady pace of appreciation [5]. Group 4: Currency Conversion Willingness - The willingness of currency holders to convert is a critical factor, with expectations of "panic conversion" among export enterprises potentially driving the offshore RMB above 7.0 in late 2024. However, analysts believe that the likelihood of such panic conversion is low due to increased hedging by exporters [5][6]. Group 5: Central Bank's Role - The central parity rate of the RMB is a significant variable, with analysts suggesting that the People's Bank of China may adopt a gradual approach to adjusting the central parity rate to avoid excessive volatility in the stock and currency markets [7]. - The central bank's management of the RMB's central parity rate will be crucial in determining the exchange rate's trajectory, with a focus on maintaining market autonomy while preventing excessive appreciation expectations [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Renminbi (RMB) reflects a strong upward trend, with a 0.64% appreciation since August and over 2% year-to-date, indicating a "steady and strong" market condition [1] External Factors - The weakening of the US dollar and rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have contributed to a declining dollar index, providing a favorable environment for RMB appreciation [1] - The RMB's previous slow appreciation has now accelerated, allowing it to catch up more quickly [1] Internal Factors - Domestic policies and capital flows have positively impacted the stock market, attracting foreign investment back into China [1] - The central bank's steady appreciation of the midpoint rate and issuance of offshore central bank bills have sent clear signals to the market, improving cross-border capital flows and stabilizing market confidence [1] Future Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to remain stable and improve, supported by consumption upgrades, technological innovation, and green transformation, which will likely keep the RMB exchange rate resilient and stable within a reasonable range [1] - There is potential for the RMB to gradually achieve "three prices in one" as part of its ongoing appreciation [1] - The recent appreciation is seen not as a mere coincidence but as a reflection of the underlying economic strength [1]

原文转自：上海证券报·中国证券网 9月4日，人民币兑美元中间价上调56个基点，报7.1052。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年9月4日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元 对人民币7.1052元，1欧元对人民币8.2970元，100日元对人民币4.8112元，1港元对人民币0.91115元，1 英镑对人民币9.5654元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6584元，1新西兰元对人民币4.1889元，1新加坡元对人 民币5.5264元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8491元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1595元，人民币1元对1.1310澳门 元，人民币1元对0.59310马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.3431俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.4826南非兰 特，人民币1元对195.07韩元，人民币1元对0.51584阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.52703沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对47.3989匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51233波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.8997丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.3243瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4101挪威克朗，人民币1元对5.77788土耳其里拉，人民币1元对 2.6286 ...

中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年9月4日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1 美元对人民币7.1052元，1欧元对人民币8.2970元，100日元对人民币4.8112元，1港元对人民币0.91115 元，1英镑对人民币9.5654元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6584元，1新西兰元对人民币4.1889元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.5264元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8491元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1595元，人民币1元对1.1310 澳门元，人民币1元对0.59310马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.3431俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.4826南 非兰特，人民币1元对195.07韩元，人民币1元对0.51584阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.52703沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对47.3989匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51233波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.8997丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3243瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4101挪威克朗，人民币1元对5.77788土耳其里拉，人民币1 元对2.6286墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.5280泰铢。 （责任编辑：华青剑） 中国经济网北京9月4日讯 来自 ...