Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the commodity market in the second half of 2025 Core Insights - The global commodity market is influenced by the U.S. tariff policy, which affects various commodities differently, leading to increased price volatility and risk [1][4] - Two major factors are expected to impact the commodity market in the second half of 2025: fundamental changes and cost support levels [1][5] - The effectiveness of agricultural commodity CTA strategies has increased due to the significant impact of U.S. tariff policies on global commodity prices [1][6] Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The outlook for the global commodity market in the second half of 2025 can be summarized by two main viewpoints: consensus expectations and changing factors [2] - Historical trends indicate that commodity markets often experience either broad increases or decreases, influenced by external factors such as U.S. tariff policies [2] Price Dynamics - Commodity prices being close to cost lines does not necessarily indicate future price declines; it requires consideration of fundamental changes and the reasons behind current cost distributions [3][8] - The oil market in the first half of 2025 showed poor performance due to a downward revision in global demand growth and increased production from non-OPEC sources [11] Specific Commodity Trends - Copper is expected to face short-term demand risks but maintains a reasonable price level due to long-term supply shortages [12] - Iron ore prices are projected to gradually decline to around 90 USD as the market becomes more balanced [13] - Gold has seen significant increases in ETF holdings, indicating its role as a safe-haven asset, although recent growth has plateaued [14] Structural Adjustments - The overall commodity market is anticipated to undergo structural adjustments in the second half of 2025, with a focus on supply-side variables and potential marginal cost reductions [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's "consensus expectation" of the bond market in the third quarter is strong, but it may lead to low volatility after "front - running." The probability of low - volatility due to "consensus expectation" is higher in the current market. When expectations are fulfilled, it may be the time for profit - taking. Asset - side interest rates will experience oscillations after "front - running" [4][20]. - The central bank's restart of treasury bond purchases needs to form a large short - end buying increment to create the "steep illusion" of the treasury bond yield curve, which is crucial for long - end interest rate trading [3][4]. - The long - end interest rate may break through the previous low by relying on the "steep illusion" of the treasury bond yield curve. However, the 1 - year treasury bond has limited further downward space, and if it continues to decline in the same way as funds and short - end coupon products, the space it brings to the 10 - year treasury bond is also limited [3][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs "Consensus Expectation" as a Trading Bottleneck - **Funds**: The view on funds has been mostly realized. The 7D central rate still has some downward space. The rapid relaxation of the funds in June was driven by the increase in large - bank lending scale, which reached around 5 trillion. The 7 - month early period may see the funds price reach the bottom of its decline. Although there may be fluctuations during the tax period in late July, the stable and loose state is likely to continue, and the loose window can be measured in quarters [11][13]. - **Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs)**: The view on NCDs has also been mostly realized. The subsequent trading center of NCDs may be 1.6%. Although the NCD interest rate may be lower than 1.6% at certain points in early July, the significance of 1.6% as the pricing center can be maintained throughout the third quarter [14]. - **Long - end Interest Rates**: The long - end interest rate may break through the previous low through the "steep illusion" of the treasury bond yield curve. The 1 - year treasury bond has limited further downward space, and the market hopes to see an "excess" downward space for the 1 - year treasury bond to bring more downward space for the 10 - year treasury bond [17]. - **Market Expectation of Central Bank's Treasury Bond Purchase**: The market's bet on the central bank's restart of treasury bond purchases is overly consistent. The "consensus expectation" of the bond market in the third quarter may lead to low volatility after "front - running" [4][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the external environment and market expectations for the second half of 2025, highlighting the potential for increased volatility and the importance of a dual-track allocation strategy in investment [3][4]. Group 1: External Environment and Market Trends - Since March, the euro has appreciated against the dollar, indicating a shift of funds away from dollar assets, with non-dollar assets receiving strong liquidity support [3]. - The market has already priced in most potential changes, including consistent expectations for the U.S. and Chinese economies, as well as shifts in international capital flows [4]. Group 2: Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - The article anticipates that the second half of 2025 will see increased market volatility as expectations align with reality, particularly as high-frequency data begins to validate these expectations [4]. - The article suggests that Chinese equity assets are likely to outperform overseas markets due to strong domestic policy expectations and favorable liquidity conditions in emerging markets [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - A "barbell strategy" focusing on dividend stocks and technology growth sectors is recommended, with projected revenue growth for the CSI 300 index at 4.5% and 5.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5]. - The static valuation of the CSI 300 is considered undervalued by 25.6% compared to its ten-year average, making it attractive for long-term investors [5].