Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the commodity market in the second half of 2025 Core Insights - The global commodity market is influenced by the U.S. tariff policy, which affects various commodities differently, leading to increased price volatility and risk [1][4] - Two major factors are expected to impact the commodity market in the second half of 2025: fundamental changes and cost support levels [1][5] - The effectiveness of agricultural commodity CTA strategies has increased due to the significant impact of U.S. tariff policies on global commodity prices [1][6] Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The outlook for the global commodity market in the second half of 2025 can be summarized by two main viewpoints: consensus expectations and changing factors [2] - Historical trends indicate that commodity markets often experience either broad increases or decreases, influenced by external factors such as U.S. tariff policies [2] Price Dynamics - Commodity prices being close to cost lines does not necessarily indicate future price declines; it requires consideration of fundamental changes and the reasons behind current cost distributions [3][8] - The oil market in the first half of 2025 showed poor performance due to a downward revision in global demand growth and increased production from non-OPEC sources [11] Specific Commodity Trends - Copper is expected to face short-term demand risks but maintains a reasonable price level due to long-term supply shortages [12] - Iron ore prices are projected to gradually decline to around 90 USD as the market becomes more balanced [13] - Gold has seen significant increases in ETF holdings, indicating its role as a safe-haven asset, although recent growth has plateaued [14] Structural Adjustments - The overall commodity market is anticipated to undergo structural adjustments in the second half of 2025, with a focus on supply-side variables and potential marginal cost reductions [15]

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-06-23 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《漳州：境外债的机会有多大？——信 用周报 20250616》 - 2025.06.16 固收周报 债券"一致预期"怎么看？ ——流动性周报 20250622 ⚫ 理解"陡峭幻觉"的交易逻辑 7 月上旬，资金价格中枢可能触及本来下行的底部水平。6 月末 跨季因素将主导资金价格走势，临近月末还会有财政资金下达明显补 充流动性。7 月初，流动性需求回落，相对充裕状态可能支撑资金价 格下行到位。再之后，需要关注平稳宽松的资金面可以维持多久，7 月 下旬税期可能引起波动，但短暂波动后稳定宽松的状态更可能持续， 宽松窗口可以用季的维度来衡量。 我们对同业存单的观点也基本兑现，后续 1.6%可能是波动中枢。 存单和短端品种也受到需求端"抢跑"的支撑，利率下行的节奏更加 提前。结合资金来看，7 月初同业存单利率的低点可能比我们前期的 预期走更远，有时点性低于 1.6%的可能。但 1.6%作为定价中枢的意 义，在整个三季度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the external environment and market expectations for the second half of 2025, highlighting the potential for increased volatility and the importance of a dual-track allocation strategy in investment [3][4]. Group 1: External Environment and Market Trends - Since March, the euro has appreciated against the dollar, indicating a shift of funds away from dollar assets, with non-dollar assets receiving strong liquidity support [3]. - The market has already priced in most potential changes, including consistent expectations for the U.S. and Chinese economies, as well as shifts in international capital flows [4]. Group 2: Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - The article anticipates that the second half of 2025 will see increased market volatility as expectations align with reality, particularly as high-frequency data begins to validate these expectations [4]. - The article suggests that Chinese equity assets are likely to outperform overseas markets due to strong domestic policy expectations and favorable liquidity conditions in emerging markets [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - A "barbell strategy" focusing on dividend stocks and technology growth sectors is recommended, with projected revenue growth for the CSI 300 index at 4.5% and 5.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5]. - The static valuation of the CSI 300 is considered undervalued by 25.6% compared to its ten-year average, making it attractive for long-term investors [5].