冠通期货研究报告-- 宏观与大宗商品周报 冠通期货研究咨询部王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2025年12月22日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 市场综述 最近一周，海外日本加息有惊无险，美联储主席之争白热化，市场临近年末走势平淡乏味。投资者态度谨慎，波动率VIX指数小幅 回落，风险资产涨跌互现，全球股市与大宗商品跌多涨少，A股震荡回调，BDI指数持续回落。大宗商品整体承压分化延续，内部风格 转换，贵金属与有色强势弱化，油价延续弱势，黑色系触底反弹大幅上扬领跑商品。 国内债市全线反弹近弱远强、股指震荡分化跌多涨少，商品大类板块涨跌互现；股市震荡分化跌多涨少，成长型风格表现弱于价 值型，上证50逆势收涨；国内商品大类板块涨跌互现，Wind商品指数周度涨跌幅1.5%，10个商品大类板块指数中5个收涨5个收跌。具 体商品大类表现来看，商品期货表现分化延续，但强弱风格转换，工强农 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济 2025年12月22日 德邦证券 市场双周观察（第二期） 证券分析师 程 强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛 威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 摘要 展望后市，随着美国后续公布的经济数据逐渐摆脱停摆影响，市场将对当前的经济现实与未来的 降息路径进行再定价，市场在未来两周的波动率有望回升，需要对未来市场的波动加剧提高警惕。 过去两周的全球市场主要受美日央行货币政策的影响，国内市场主要受政策面与经济数据的影响。 12月FOMC降息25bp，并推出RMP工具缓和流动性，美元走势偏弱； 日央行加息落地，未明确后续加息节奏，日元弱势； 国内在政策面与基本面的交织影响下，市场无风险利率显著下行。 整体来看，过去两周全球市场表现一般，美元偏弱带来非美货币涨多跌少。 股市：偏弱行情下，创业板指与道指韧性强；A股国防军工领涨； 债市：联储降息落地，明年降息预期稳定；中债国债利率普遍回落，信用利 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 原标题：【广发策略】中高净值的存款搬家很可能已形成趋势 来源：晨明的策略深度思考 一、2025年：监管与险资有效兜底，但场外资金流入仍处早期 2025年，A股增量资金最好的叙事是"上行收益和下行风险不对称"——监管与险资遏制指数下行风险， 国内存款搬家与海外美元溢出资金打开指数上行空间。（我们在6、7月份的两篇报告《市场不缺钱》 《下行风险和上行收益不对称》有更详细的讨论） 但从全年的实际情况看，我们更能观察到下行风险有限（险资与监管兜底），而场外资金的流入却仍处 在风偏修复的早期阶段（存量资金加仓，居民、外资入市仍缓）。 监管与险资有效托底，兜住市场下行风险。本轮监管对于资本市场的态度回温，从体感上，我们能明显 感觉到调控的柔韧性上升，相较于2024年的资金"将信将疑"，当下市场资金对于"下有底"的一致预期越 来越强，甚至也主动成为左侧托底的合力。 （1）城镇储户的投资意愿自2024Q3以来明显回暖，但绝对水平仍处低位； 险资对于A股的配置需求同样增加，从仓位看，险资的仓位在2025Q3已经来到15.5%，创有数据以来的 历史次高（仅 ...

周度报告——商品期权 商品期权周报：2025 年第 49 周 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 7 日 ★ 商品期权市场活跃度 本周（2025.12.01-2025.12.05）商品期权市场成交小幅上涨， 日均成交量为 792 万手，日均持仓量为 1141 万手，环比变化 分别为+2.59%和+8.99%。分品种来看，本周日均成交活跃的 品种主要包括白银（76 万手）、碳酸锂（75 万手）、玻璃（64 万手）。此外，本周共有 3 个品种成交增长超过 100%，成交 量增长较为显著的品种为沪铝（+164%）、铝合金（+138%）、 纸浆（+123%）。与此同时，成交量下降较为明显的品种则 有对二甲苯（-96%）、苹果（-93%）和红枣（-92%）。从持 仓量数据来看，本周日均持仓量较高的品种为玻璃（125 万 手）、纯碱（101 万手）和豆粕（84 万手）。日均持仓量环 比增长较为迅速的品种为白银（+76%）、锡（+71%）、合 成橡胶（+50%）。建议投资者可重点关注交易活跃品种可能 存在的市场机会。 ★ 商品期权主要数据点评 标的涨跌情况：本周商品期权标的期货涨跌互现，能化板块 以下跌为主，金属板块以上涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's long-term government bond yields are experiencing a significant and uncontrolled rise, with the 10-year yield approaching the critical 2% level and the 30-year yield soaring to 3.43%, indicating potential global market risks [1][4]. Group 1: Yield Trends - The 10-year government bond yield in Japan has been consistently reaching new highs, driven by a "magnet effect" around the 2% mark, with technical indicators suggesting a strong upward trend [2]. - The 30-year bond yield has shown even stronger performance, breaking through the 3.3% level and indicating substantial upward potential due to a lack of resistance above [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Context - Analysts recall the significant market drop in late October last year when Japanese rates began to rise, which coincided with a sharp decline in the Nasdaq 100 index, highlighting a historical correlation between Japanese rates and U.S. equity performance [5][8]. Group 3: Market Volatility - The current rise in Japanese bond yields is characterized by a clear trend, breaking through technical resistance levels and indicating strong upward momentum [6]. - Despite most traders not including Japanese rate changes in their daily risk assessments, this macro-level shift could significantly increase market volatility [9][11]. Group 4: Global Impact - The widening yield spread between Japanese and U.S. 10-year bonds is reshaping global capital allocation, reflecting deepening monetary policy divergence and potentially triggering large-scale cross-border capital flows [12]. - The increase in the yield spread may lead to adjustments in arbitrage trading, particularly affecting yen carry trades, which could have significant implications for global risk asset prices [12]. Group 5: Safe-Haven Assets - The gold market has begun to react to the rise in Japanese long-term yields, indicating that gold prices are sensitive to changes in Japanese government bonds and reflecting growing market concerns about potential risks [14][15]. - The movement in gold prices, whether measured in yen or dollars, signals an increase in demand for safe-haven assets, often foreshadowing broader market adjustments [15][17].

Core Insights - Liu Lin achieved the fifth place in the lightweight group of the 19th National Futures (Options) Live Trading Competition, showcasing a unique trading style and robust risk management [1] Group 1: Trading Strategy - Liu Lin focuses on popular trading products such as polysilicon, CSI 1000, and gold, believing that identifying leading products and trends increases the probability of profit [2] - His trading strategy is primarily based on market volatility, emphasizing that as long as there is market fluctuation, there is room for options trading [2] - Liu Lin employs an intraday short-term strategy, primarily engaging in buying positions and avoiding overnight trades, aligning his strategy with his personal trading style [2][3] Group 2: Risk Management - Liu Lin's trading career began with ETF options, and he transitioned to commodity options after experiencing a lack of market activity, accumulating about one year of trading experience [3] - He emphasizes the importance of strict position management and timely stop-loss measures to control drawdowns, which he views as essential for long-term success [3] - His trading philosophy includes a short holding period and profiting from volatility, with a strong focus on the necessity of stop-loss strategies to prevent significant losses [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Liu Lin views his competition results as a new starting point and plans to further optimize his intraday short-term strategy while monitoring potential market opportunities from 2025 to 2026 [4] - He highlights the significance of policy changes and market sentiment fluctuations as key factors that will create more trading opportunities [4] - Liu Lin advises traders to experiment with various strategies to find their personal trading style and to prioritize profit-taking to build trading confidence [4]

Core Insights - The revaluation of artificial intelligence (AI) may increase market volatility and trigger a new round of deleveraging, impacting gold and other commodities, but any price distortions are expected to be short-term and will not affect the strong fundamentals of gold [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent weeks have shown signs of fatigue in the tech sector, particularly in AI-related stocks, with a parabolic rise pushing forward earnings to levels significantly above long-term norms, increasing the risk of a pullback [1] - The Nasdaq 100 futures experienced a mild decline of 4.3% from peak to trough, which is small compared to its over 20% gain for the year, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - High valuations, narrow market breadth, cyclicality of AI capital flows, and concentration of funds in a few large-cap stocks have contributed to recent market tension, with warnings from major bank CEOs about a potential 10%-20% market correction [1][2] Group 2: Volatility and Deleveraging - Volatility events are considered one of the most underestimated channels of transmission between stock market pressures and commodity price movements [2] - When volatility spikes, institutional portfolios targeting specific volatility or risk levels must reduce risk exposure, often leading to a broad sell-off, even in positions supported by strong fundamentals [2] - The "cash grab" phenomenon occurs where liquid, large-cap assets are sold off as immediate cash sources, impacting all positions, including commodities [2] Group 3: Gold and Commodity Outlook - Despite recent strong gains, gold is currently in a consolidation phase, but has not yet tested levels that would indicate a deeper correction or the end of a structural bull market [2][3] - Historical examples, such as the volatility spike in early April, show that even strong assets like gold can experience temporary declines during market stress, but typically recover quickly once forced selling subsides [3] - The current market environment may trigger another volatility event, but the risk of forced liquidation in precious and industrial metals has lessened due to previous meaningful corrections [3][4] Group 4: Fundamental Support for Commodities - The core support for gold and other investment metals remains unchanged, driven by fiscal uncertainty, persistent inflation, stable demand from central banks and investors, declining real interest rates, and ongoing geopolitical hedging needs [4][5] - Industrial metals continue to benefit from structural demand related to de-globalization, electrification, grid expansion, and rapid infrastructure development, alongside insufficient new mining capacity investments [5] - Volatility events may temporarily distort price signals across the commodity market, but they rarely alter the fundamental trajectory of markets with solid macro and micro foundations [5]

Core Insights - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is expected to delay the release of key economic data, including the October employment report, which is unlikely to be published on time [1] - The lack of new negative news has contributed to low market volatility, while demand for the U.S. dollar remains strong [1] Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown is causing a significant gap in official data availability [1] - Market volatility is being maintained at low levels due to the absence of adverse news [1] - There is a robust demand for the U.S. dollar despite the economic uncertainties [1]

Core Insights - The main resistance facing German government bonds is the active risk sentiment in the market, which has heightened sensitivity to unexpected data releases [1] - Key data releases, central bank policy decisions, and trade negotiations are expected in the coming days, potentially leading to increased market volatility [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, followed by a decision to maintain rates on Thursday [1] - In this context, the research department of Deutsche Bank maintains a cautious stance on the duration of German government bonds [1]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 878.82 points, a decrease of 1.9%, closing at 45,479.60 points. The S&P 500 fell by 2.71%, ending at 6,552.51 points, marking its largest single-day drop since April 10. The Nasdaq Composite plummeted 3.56%, closing at 22,204.43 points after reaching a historical high earlier in the day [1][3]. Factors Influencing Market Sentiment - Increased trade war risks and the ongoing US government shutdown have led to a rapid decline in global market risk sentiment, causing collective sell-offs in US and European markets. The Dow fell nearly 2%, the S&P 500 over 2.5%, and the Nasdaq more than 3.5%. European indices such as Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 also saw declines of approximately 1.5% [3][9]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks were the primary drivers of the market downturn, with significant losses in sectors such as semiconductors and electric vehicles. Many leading stocks in these sectors experienced declines between 5% and 8%. Concerns arose regarding the impact of global supply chain issues and slowing growth expectations in their sales markets [9][10]. Volatility and Investor Behavior - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as Wall Street's fear gauge, surged above 22, indicating heightened investor anxiety and a rush to purchase protective options against potential further declines. This spike in volatility reflects a shift in investor sentiment from optimism to caution, particularly in a high-valuation environment [9][10]. Economic and Political Context - The ongoing US government shutdown, now in its tenth day, has exacerbated market uncertainties. The Senate's failure to pass a temporary funding bill has raised concerns about its impact on economic growth in the fourth quarter. Analysts warn that prolonged political deadlock could undermine consumer and business confidence, affecting economic data releases and fiscal spending [10][11]. Weekly Market Performance - For the week, the S&P 500 fell by 2.4%, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones recorded declines of 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively. The previous market support from corporate earnings and interest rate cut expectations has been overshadowed by emerging risks, prompting a shift towards defensive sectors and cash assets [11].