Group 1: Macroeconomic Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to rise, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate spread deepened, with inflation expectations also increasing [2][16] - Offshore US dollar liquidity has marginally tightened, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains balanced [2][23] Group 2: Market Trading Activity and Volatility - Market trading activity has decreased, with major indices experiencing increased volatility; sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, electric new energy, public utilities, and construction are above the 90th percentile in trading activity [3][28] - The volatility of major indices, including the CSI 300 and ChiNext, has continued to rise, with steel and military sectors also showing volatility above the 90th historical percentile [3][35] Group 3: Institutional Research - The banking, electronics, electric new energy, computing, and automotive sectors are leading in research activity, with banking and automotive sectors showing a month-on-month increase in research heat [4][46] Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have simultaneously raised net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027, with increases noted in sectors such as electric new energy, non-ferrous metals, construction, machinery, and pharmaceuticals [5][19] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2026/2027 has increased across the A-share market [5][17] Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing to net sell A-shares, with a notable increase in the buy/sell ratio for electric new energy, electronics, and automotive sectors [6][32] - Northbound trading primarily net bought coal and oil and petrochemical sectors, while net selling occurred in electronics, computing, and chemicals [6][33] Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has slightly increased but remains at a low level, with net buying primarily in electric new energy, chemicals, and computing sectors [7][35] - The proportion of financing purchases has increased across most sectors, with net buying focused on mid-cap growth and mid/small-cap value stocks [7][38] Group 7: Active Equity Funds and ETFs - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in military, machinery, and automotive sectors, while reducing positions in non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and steel [9][45] - ETFs have continued to experience net redemptions, particularly in broad-based indices like CSI 500, CSI 300, and ChiNext, while sectors such as electric power and public utilities saw net inflows [9][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector continues to experience high volatility. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, have a significant impact on the oil and chemical markets. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, and investors are advised to adopt a volatile mindset [2]. - Crude oil and oil products' volatility has increased, which is conducive to the repair of chemical valuations. The decline of chemical futures on the night of March 10 was significantly less than that of crude oil futures. The supply reduction in the chemical industry chain caused by the Middle East situation is expected to gradually appear in about a month [2]. - Overall, the energy and chemical sector is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern, with each product showing different trends and influencing factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances lead to sharp price fluctuations. The situation in the US - Iran conflict and the passage prospects of the Strait of Hormuz are still in a state of expected swing. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and strong, waiting for the situation to become clearer [6]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price has fallen from a high level. The market is focused on geopolitical developments. The profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated rapidly, and the inventory is accumulating. The long - term valuation is expected to decline, and it is expected to be volatile [7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are still the core. The price is volatile and likely to rise. Once the US and Iran reach an agreement, it may have a significant negative impact. In the long - term, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East is gradually being replaced, which is a long - term negative factor [7]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil. Although it faces some negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution, its current valuation is low, and it is expected to be volatile [9]. - **PX**: The price has significantly declined due to cost factors, but the supply is gradually being affected by the Strait blockade. In the short - term, it is in a tight pattern, and the price is expected to be volatile. The mid - term logic of buying on dips remains [11]. - **PTA**: It follows the wide - range fluctuations of upstream costs. The basis remains relatively stable, and it is expected to be volatile in the short - term [12]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is expected to be volatile and strong. The supply side may see production cuts by some enterprises, and the downstream industry's profit has improved [14]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to be volatile and strong. The supply side may have more production cuts and maintenance, and the export has increased. It may return to the de - stocking stage in March [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The high - level increase is blocked. It follows the cost and market sentiment to fluctuate. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a wide - range consolidation [18]. - **Short - Fiber**: The market is re - positioning, waiting for the downstream market to digest. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and the processing fee has certain support [19]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The price follows the cost to decline, and the trading atmosphere has improved. The absolute price follows the raw materials to fluctuate, and the support for the processing fee has increased [20]. - **Methanol**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The geopolitical conflict is still uncertain, and the market tends to trade the geopolitical premium [23]. - **Urea**: After the market sentiment fades, it oscillates and consolidates. The supply is stable at a high level, and the demand has both supporting and weakening factors [24]. - **LLDPE**: The price has fallen. It is affected by the decline in oil prices and geopolitical factors. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile [26]. - **PP**: The price has declined. It is affected by oil prices and geopolitical factors. The refinery's profit has different performances, and it is expected to be volatile in the short - term [27]. - **PL**: The price has adjusted. The market has returned to rationality, and the short - term profit of the powder material has been compressed. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term [28]. - **PVC**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and it should be treated with caution. The supply may be reduced, the export has improved, and it is expected to be volatile [30]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has difficulty rising, and it is temporarily oscillating. Geopolitical factors may lead to a reduction in chlorine - alkali supply, and the export has improved [31]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different changes in inter - period spreads. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 4.59 with a change of - 0.65 dollars/barrel, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 700 with a change of - 92 yuan/ton [33]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis and warehouse receipt situation. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 26 yuan/ton with a change of - 121 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt is 78750 tons [34]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also different changes in inter - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 285 with a change of - 91 yuan/ton [35]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: The report lists the basis and spread monitoring of various chemical products, but specific data summaries are not provided in the text.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Platinum: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core View - Overnight, precious metals declined with high volatility. The intense situation between the US and Iran, the continuous strengthening of the US dollar, and the rising oil prices have intensified concerns about the economic outlook, weakening the market's bets on the Fed's interest - rate cuts. A significant decline in global stock markets may lead to further liquidity tightening and continue to suppress precious metals. Short - term market volatility has increased, and the subsequent trend is still determined by the war situation. It is recommended to control positions and participate cautiously [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iran Situation - Iran claims to have destroyed two sets of US THAAD systems. The US is considering transferring THAAD and Patriot systems from South Korea to the Middle East [2] - Saudi Arabia and the UAE are considering joining the fight against Iran due to continuous missile attacks. The UAE says it has not changed its defense plan for now [2] - Trump says Iran wants to negotiate but it's too late. The US has sufficient armaments for indefinite combat [2] - Israel has officially mobilized troops for a ground invasion of Lebanon [2] - The US Senate will vote on the "War Powers Resolution" on Wednesday to limit Trump's power to act against Iran [2] - Iran's ambassador to the UN says Iran has not contacted the US for possible peace negotiations [2] - An Iranian opposition news website reports that Khamenei's son has been selected as Iran's next supreme leader [2] Fed - Kashkari originally expected one interest - rate cut in 2026 but is now uncertain due to the war [2] - Williams believes the Fed has to consider the spill - over effects of the Iran issue on foreign markets and trading partners and thinks the interest rate is slightly above the neutral rate [2] - Schmid says the only thing the Fed can do is to continue to suppress inflation [2] Energy Situation - Trump announces to provide insurance for maritime oil transportation, and the navy will expand the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz [3] - Debris from intercepted drones causes a fire at the UAE's major oil trading hub Fujairah [3] - Iraq's oil storage facilities are nearly full, and Iraq will be forced to cut production by more than 3 million barrels per day within a few days [3] - Saudi Aramco is exploring oil exports via the Red Sea [3] - Trump says he can tolerate short - term oil price increases and prioritizes eliminating the Iranian threat [3]

Group 1 - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is nearing a one-week high, recently rising by 2.48 points to a level of 20.05 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with domestic gold prices rising sharply while international prices show a contrasting decline, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Domestic Market Performance - On February 9, 2026, domestic gold prices surged, with spot gold reaching 1116 RMB per gram, a daily increase of 2.02%, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's main gold contract rising by 3.88% [1][3]. - The strong performance in the domestic market reflects a robust interest from local investors, as evidenced by the significant inflow into gold ETFs, which reached 8.233 billion RMB, indicating actual financial support for rising gold prices [3]. International Market Dynamics - In contrast, the London spot gold price fell by 0.65%, closing around 4995 USD per ounce, highlighting a divergence between domestic and international gold markets [3]. - Geopolitical factors, including U.S. trade policy comments and delays in EU-U.S. trade agreements, have heightened market concerns, leading to increased safe-haven investments in gold [3]. Market Behavior and Trends - There has been a notable increase in customer purchases of gold at retail outlets, with some gold bars selling out due to high demand [6]. - The gold market has shown high volatility, with prices previously exceeding 5000 USD per ounce before experiencing a significant drop of 9.25% on January 30, followed by a recovery [4][6]. Technical and Fundamental Factors - The current gold price is at a critical psychological level of 5000 USD per ounce, with both bullish and bearish forces competing for control [6]. - Global central banks continue to purchase gold, maintaining high levels of demand, which supports gold prices [6]. Investor Sentiment and Market Indicators - Investor sentiment towards gold is optimistic, with a Bank of America survey indicating that bullish positions in gold are among the most crowded trades [7]. - The number of open contracts in COMEX gold futures remains high, suggesting strong market participation [7]. Regulatory and Supply Chain Considerations - Regulatory changes, such as increased margin requirements for gold futures by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, may impact market leverage and trading activity [9]. - The gold supply chain is experiencing tension, with reports of increased difficulty in raw material procurement and extended delivery times, potentially affecting retail prices [9]. Macro-Economic Influences - Economic indicators, including U.S. employment and inflation data, are critical as they influence Federal Reserve policy expectations, which in turn affect gold prices [9]. - The recent fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index have shown a negative correlation with gold prices, further complicating market dynamics [6]. Market Structure and Trading Strategies - The rise of high-frequency and algorithmic trading in the gold market is accelerating short-term price movements, while retail investors are increasingly using gold ETFs for market participation [11]. - The demand for physical gold typically increases before the Chinese New Year, providing seasonal support for prices, although stable gold mine production may not fully meet this demand [12]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical patterns suggest that after significant price movements, gold often undergoes a consolidation phase before continuing its upward trajectory [14]. - The evolving relationship between gold and cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, indicates a shift in investor perception of alternative assets [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold is likely to show a wide - range volatile trend in the short - term, while its long - term upward support logic remains unchanged [1] - Silver will also experience wide - range volatility in the short - term with higher volatility risk than gold, and its long - term bullish support is still strong [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Gold - **Market Performance**: Gold prices at home and abroad rose and then fell. COMEX gold price once reached $5,100 per ounce, and Shanghai gold once reached 1,100 yuan per gram [1] - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and between Russia and Ukraine increased market risk - aversion. The US ADP employment number and ISM non - manufacturing PMI in January were lower than the previous values, boosting market expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, gold is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend. In the long - term, the upward support logic remains intact [1] Silver - **Market Performance**: Silver prices also rose and then fell. COMEX silver price once reached $92 per ounce, and Shanghai silver once reached 24,000 yuan per gram [2] - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical changes increased market risk - aversion, but the positive driving force on the silver spot side weakened. Since mid - January, the silver tariff risk has declined, the US silver hoarding pace has slowed down, and the London silver spot lease rate has decreased [2] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, silver is expected to maintain wide - range volatility with greater volatility risk than gold. In the long - term, the bullish support is still strong [2] Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index all showed positive growth on February 4, 2026, with growth rates of 1.99%, 2.43%, 1.42%, and 1.75% respectively [42] - **Precious Metals Index**: On February 4, 2026, the precious metals index had a daily increase of 5.88%, a 5 - day decline of 18.91%, a 1 - month increase of 9.34%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.25% [43]

Copper - Overnight copper prices showed a downward trend, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses, although the loss margin has narrowed [3][12] - Macro factors include a rising probability of a new U.S. government shutdown by the end of January, affecting market confidence in U.S. political and economic stability [3][12] - LME copper inventory increased by 1,825 tons to 172,350 tons, while Comex inventory rose by 2,921 tons to 516,070 tons [3][12] - The current copper price logic cannot be simply determined by fundamentals, but should also consider financial attributes, maintaining a view of a fluctuating but generally upward trend [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 1.91% to $18,235 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 1.96% to 143,420 yuan per ton [4][13] - LME nickel inventory increased by 174 tons to 285,726 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 18 tons to 42,499 tons [4][13] - Indonesia's nickel ore production is expected to decline by 10% to 15% compared to last year, raising concerns about supply [4][14] - The market sentiment is influenced by potential supply issues from Indonesia, leading to a short-term upward pressure on nickel prices [4][14] Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2605 closing at 2,766 yuan per ton, up 1.62% [5][15] - SHFE aluminum prices also showed a slight increase, with AL2603 closing at 24,350 yuan per ton, up 0.43% [5][15] - The current reduction in production and inventory is insufficient to sustain a rebound, leading to doubts about the continuity of price increases [5][15] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 8,860 yuan per ton, down 0.78% [6][16] - Polysilicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 51,900 yuan per ton, up 0.42% [6][16] - Supply-side expectations are tightening due to production cuts, while high inventory levels dilute the strength of replenishment [6][16] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 1.5% to 179,600 yuan per ton, while the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 9,000 yuan to 172,500 yuan per ton [7][17] - Weekly production of lithium raw materials decreased, with spodumene lithium production down by 210 tons to 13,914 tons [7][17] - Despite a slight increase in downstream inventory, the overall market remains cautious due to potential supply disruptions and high inventory levels [7][17]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Geopolitical Trends**: The trend of de-dollarization is strengthening globally, with precious metals, especially gold, becoming a focal point in capital markets. The U.S. economy faces structural issues such as high deficits, high leverage, and inflation, which may impact global financial stability [1][2] - **China's Economic Outlook**: China's macroeconomic environment is expected to stabilize by 2025, with a projected GDP growth of 4.5% in Q4. However, internal demand remains weak, and the investment sector is declining, particularly in the real estate industry, where second-hand home prices are rapidly falling [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **2026 Economic Changes**: Anticipated changes in 2026 include adjustments in baseline statistics affecting GDP, CPI, and PPI readings, a potential improvement in endogenous demand despite its current weakness, and a focus on quality and structure of economic growth rather than just speed [6][9] - **Industrial Inventory Cycle**: Since October 2023, the inventory cycle of Chinese industrial enterprises has been flat. A downward trend is expected in 2026 due to supply-demand adjustments, with a potential recovery in 2027 driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7] Important but Overlooked Content - **Policy Shifts**: The Chinese government is shifting its focus from high-speed growth to improving the quality and structure of economic growth, which may lead to a reduction in growth targets [9] - **Bond Market Dynamics**: The bond market is showing signs of stability, with significant compression in yield spreads. Large banks are buying long-term bonds, while smaller banks are focusing on medium-term national development bonds, indicating a healthy market demand [11][12] - **Market Volatility and Financing**: Recent adjustments in financing margin ratios to 100% reflect regulatory measures similar to those in 2015, suggesting that future leverage in the market may be limited [18][19] - **Investment Recommendations**: Current investment strategies should focus on technology and cyclical sectors, with a shift from precious metals to industrial and new energy metals. There is also a recommendation to explore themes related to internet assets, AI applications, and other innovative sectors [20] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the relevant industries and economic conditions.

Report Overview - Report Title: Macro and Commodity Weekly Report - Report Author: Wang Jing - Release Date: December 22, 2025 - Report Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Market Summary - Overseas, Japan's interest rate hike was uneventful, and the competition for the Fed Chair heated up. The market showed a dull performance approaching the year - end. Investors were cautious, the VIX index declined slightly, and risk - assets were mixed. Global stocks and commodities mostly fell, A - shares oscillated and pulled back, and the BDI index continued to decline. Commodities were under pressure with internal style transformation. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals weakened, oil prices remained weak, and the black series rebounded strongly [5][8]. - In the domestic market, the bond market rebounded with short - term weakness and long - term strength. Stock indices oscillated and were mostly down, with the growth - style stocks underperforming value - style stocks, and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rising against the trend. The domestic commodity sectors showed mixed performance. The weekly change of the Wind Commodity Index was 1.5%, with 5 out of 10 commodity sub - indices rising and 5 falling. The black series was strong, with the coal, coke, steel, and ore and non - metallic building materials sectors rising over 4%. The chemical sector followed, while precious metals barely rose, and soft commodities were nearly flat. Other sectors fell, especially the oilseeds, grains, and agricultural products sectors. Non - ferrous metals turned down, and the energy sector continued to slump [5][14]. - In the futures market capital aspect, the overall capital of the commodity futures market slightly flowed out. The agricultural products and soft commodities sectors saw obvious capital inflows, while many sectors had capital outflows, with significant outflows in the non - metallic building materials, energy, and grain sectors [16]. 2. Volatility and Interest Rate Expectations - The volatility of the international CRB commodity index slightly increased, the domestic Wind Commodity Index had a small upward volatility, and the volatility of the Nanhua Commodity Index declined. By sector, the volatility of commodity futures sectors was mixed, with obvious volatility declines in the energy and oilseeds sectors and notable increases in the non - ferrous and soft commodities sectors [6][22]. - According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75% in January was 75.2%, little changed from last week's 72.7%. The probability of a 25 - bp rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% remained below 30%. The market expected 1 - 3 rate cuts in 2026 [6]. 3. Upcoming Events - Due to the approaching Christmas and New Year holidays, macro - economic data is scarce this week. The focus will be on a small amount of US economic data, especially GDP data. The initial estimate of US Q3 GDP will be released on December 23. Investors will assess the US economic performance and look for clues about the Fed's next rate - cut time. In addition, investors will seek guidance on the Bank of Japan's policy path from Governor Ueda Kazuo's speech on December 25 and the release of the meeting's opinion summary on December 29. The US stock market will close three hours early on December 24 and be closed on December 25 [7]. 4. Fed Chair Candidates - Kevin Hassett, the "insider" most likely to be nominated, is an economic policy "spokesperson" and political ally of Trump. He publicly supports rate cuts and has criticized the Fed's past policies [70]. - Kevin Warsh, the "returner" favored by Wall Street, has Fed experience and is strongly supported by the financial community. He has publicly advocated rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction [71]. - Christopher Waller, the "dark horse" with solid policy experience, is a current Fed governor. He has rational and consistent policy discussions on rate cuts and has promoted conservative reforms within the Fed [72]. 5. Other Key Information - US inflation data for November was lower than expected, with the CPI rising 2.7% year - on - year and the core CPI rising 2.6%. Many economists were puzzled by this, and the data was affected by the government shutdown [77]. - On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised the policy rate to 0.75%. However, Governor Ueda Kazuo's cautious remarks on policy prospects pressured the yen, and the lack of a clear future rate - hike schedule confused investors. The market expects the Bank of Japan's future tightening to be gradual [84]. - This week's key economic data and events include UK Q3 GDP final value, US Q3 GDP initial estimate, and speeches from central bank governors [90].

Macro Economic Outlook - The market is expected to reprice current economic realities and future interest rate cuts as the U.S. economic data gradually recovers from the impact of the standstill[2] - Increased market volatility is anticipated in the next two weeks, necessitating heightened vigilance[2] Global Market Performance - Global markets were primarily influenced by U.S. and Japanese monetary policies, with the domestic market affected by policy and economic data[3] - The FOMC cut rates by 25 basis points in December, leading to a weaker dollar, while the Bank of Japan raised rates without a clear future rate hike schedule, resulting in a weaker yen[3] - A-shares saw significant declines, with the ChiNext Index down by 2.26% and the Science and Technology Innovation Board down by 2.99% over the two-week period[8] Stock Market Valuation - The P/E ratio for the CSI 300 Index is 74.8, while the Shanghai Composite Index stands at 72.2, indicating relatively high valuations compared to historical averages[9] - The P/B ratio for the CSI 300 Index is 82.5, suggesting a premium valuation compared to historical norms[11] Sector Performance - The defense and military sector led A-share performance with an 8.6% increase over the past two weeks, while the banking sector saw a decline of 0.9%[13] - The non-bank financial sector outperformed with a 7.5% increase, indicating strong investor interest[13] Bond Market Insights - The yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds is at 1.84%, while U.S. 10-year bonds yield 4.14%, highlighting a significant yield gap[15] - The FOMC's interest rate cut expectations suggest two more cuts in 2026, with probabilities of 65.32% and 34.68% for March and July, respectively[18] Commodity Market Trends - Precious metals, particularly silver, have seen significant price increases, with silver up by 8.28% over the past week[44] - Lithium carbonate has emerged as a leading commodity, reflecting strong demand in the market[42]