Core Insights - The global reliance on China has increased despite a complex international environment, indicating a trend of deeper integration rather than decoupling [1][2] - China's manufacturing value added accounts for over 30% of the global total, maintaining the largest scale for 15 consecutive years, with projections suggesting it could reach 45% by 2030 [1] - The growth of foreign trade is fundamentally linked to a country's productivity, with China's increasing share in global trade reflecting a consensus on its role in global division of labor [1] Trade Performance - In 2021, China's total goods trade reached 39.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, with exports and imports growing by 21.2% and 21.5% respectively [3] - By 2022, the total goods trade value surpassed 40 trillion yuan, reaching 42.07 trillion yuan, a 7.7% increase year-on-year [3] - In 2023, the trade value was 41.76 trillion yuan, showing a modest growth of 0.2%, while projections for 2024 indicate a rise to 43.85 trillion yuan, a 5% increase [3] Product Structure and Innovation - The export of mechanical and electrical products has strengthened, with 2021 exports reaching 12.83 trillion yuan, accounting for 59% of total exports [7] - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2% in 2025, with significant increases in high-end machinery and instruments [7] - The shift from OEM to ODM and customized products reflects an upgrade in China's export product structure, enhancing design and brand capabilities [6][7] Trade Partners and Market Diversification - China has seen a decline in trade with the U.S. while increasing trade with non-U.S. regions, with ASEAN remaining the largest trading partner [11] - The trade with "Belt and Road" countries has outpaced overall growth, accounting for 51.8% of total trade in the first half of the year [11] - The diversification of international markets has made China's trade more resilient amid uncertainties [11] E-commerce and Digital Trade - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached approximately 1.32 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, growing by 5.7% [9] - The share of cross-border e-commerce in total foreign trade has increased from less than 1% in 2015 to 6.2% in 2024, indicating a significant trend towards digital trade [9][10] Future Outlook - Despite challenges from geopolitical tensions and a slowing global economy, China's complete and high-density industrial chain is expected to maintain its competitive edge for at least the next decade [12] - The focus on enhancing product quality and value-added services is crucial for sustaining international competitiveness [13] - The transition from a production-based economy to a consumption-driven one will require addressing internal challenges and finding new growth points [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the essential differences between cross-border trade and general trade, highlighting the strategies that overseas brands can adopt when entering the Chinese market, including the role of agency operations and self-management. Group 1: Differences Between Cross-Border Trade and General Trade - Cross-border trade involves transactions that cross national borders, including goods, services, technology, and investments, while general trade refers to conventional trade where both parties are within the same country [3]. - The process of cross-border trade is complex, requiring compliance with multiple countries' laws, currency exchange, and customs clearance, whereas general trade follows simpler domestic regulations [4]. - Cross-border trade benefits from tax exemptions, such as a 70% tax on value-added and consumption taxes for cross-border e-commerce, while general trade requires full tax payments with potential for export tax refunds [5]. - Risks and costs in cross-border trade include currency fluctuations, political risks, and high logistics costs, while general trade faces lower risks but must manage domestic market competition [6]. - Typical scenarios for cross-border trade include platforms like Tmall International and Amazon Global, while general trade is exemplified by traditional export businesses [6]. - Cross-border trade is characterized by its reliance on platform rules and user insights, making it suitable for emerging brands, while general trade requires long-term customer relationship building, favoring established companies [6]. Group 2: Agency Operations for Overseas Brands - Agency operations provide a rapid entry strategy for brands, as demonstrated by Panasonic, which achieved over 60 million in GMV in its first year through agency collaboration [6][7]. - The Ordinary, a Canadian brand, successfully penetrated the market with a "component-focused" strategy, generating over 100 million in GMV through agency-led campaigns [7]. - Strong brands like LVMH and Apple have opted for self-management, establishing their own flagship stores and leveraging brand ambassadors to reach high-end consumers [8]. - The choice between agency operations and self-management depends on the brand's resources and market stage, with agency operations being ideal for resource-limited brands and self-management suited for financially robust companies [9]. Group 3: Strategies for Entering the Chinese Market - Successful market entry requires localization, as illustrated by Santa Maria Novella, which launched a "Chinese-style fragrance gift box" through an agency, achieving over 10 million in GMV in its first year [10]. - A comprehensive traffic strategy is essential, utilizing platforms like Xiaohongshu for product discovery, Tmall for conversion, and Douyin for repeat purchases, creating a closed loop of content, transaction, and retention [11]. - Agency operations can help brands navigate compliance and efficiency challenges, such as avoiding advertising violations and optimizing supply chains for faster delivery [12]. Group 4: Conclusion on Trade Forms and Brand Strategies - The fundamental difference between cross-border and general trade lies in the balance between globalization and localization, influencing how overseas brands approach the Chinese market [13]. - The choice between agency operations and self-management should align with the brand's specific needs and market conditions, with agency operations serving as an accelerator for rapid adaptation [13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the U.S. import policy for low-value packages, particularly affecting e-commerce shipments from China, marks a significant shift in the regulatory landscape, ending the previous "Section 321" exemption for packages valued under $800 [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Starting May 2, the U.S. will implement new customs and tax regulations for low-value packages from China, which will now be subject to a fixed import duty regardless of the previous exemption [1][2]. - The new policy distinguishes between postal and commercial channels, with postal channels now requiring fixed tax rates and pre-payment of duties, complicating the previously simpler process [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on Channels - The postal channel, governed by the Universal Postal Union, will see significant operational complexities due to the new requirements, leading to actions such as Hong Kong Post temporarily suspending shipments to the U.S. [2][4]. - In contrast, commercial channels will continue to follow general trade rules, focusing on the product's HS code and country of origin for duty assessment, which may lead to higher costs for packages originating from China [2][3]. Group 3: Future Developments - The U.S. Department of Commerce is working on a comprehensive regulatory framework for low-value packages, expected to expand globally by September 2025, which may introduce a unified reporting system [3][5]. - The rapid growth of e-commerce transactions has prompted this policy shift, as the previous regulations were inadequate for the current market dynamics, leading to unfair competition and tax equity issues [3][6]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - A transitional solution involves utilizing postal systems from third countries to potentially bypass the new duties until the regulations are fully enforced, although this approach has its drawbacks, including longer logistics times and higher costs [4][5]. - Shifting to traditional general trade customs clearance is seen as a more sustainable strategy, despite its higher operational requirements, as it offers faster clearance and better risk management [5][6]. Group 5: Long-term Considerations - The U.S. may adopt a cross-border e-commerce model similar to China's 9610 model, which would require overseas e-commerce businesses to register locally and comply with comprehensive supply chain regulations [5][6]. - The role of overseas warehouses is becoming increasingly important, serving as a critical link between Chinese brands and U.S. consumers, facilitating localized delivery and communication in the evolving regulatory environment [6].