3、展望未来，公司保持着"定力"和"信心"，全力推动国内市场的"三个转型"，更好地满足消费者需 求，有望实现稳健、健康、可持续发展。 盈利预测与投资建议。预计2025-2027年EPS 分别为75.48元、82.68 元、90.24元，对应动态PE 分别为20 倍、19 倍、17 倍。公司拥有行业最强品牌力，正积极推进国内市场"三个转型"，长线发展后劲十足， 维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：经济复苏或不及预期，市场竞争加剧风险。 税费及管理费率下降，净利率同比略增。1、25Q1公司毛利率为92.1%，较去年同期下降0.6个百分点， 预计主要系产品结构略有下沉；营业税金及附加率同比下降1.6 个百分点至13.9%。2、费用率方面， 25Q1 销售费用率提升0.5 个百分点至2.9%，管理费用率下降0.7 个百分点至3.7%，财务费用率同比提升 0.5 个百分点至-0.6%，整体费用率微升0.2个百分点至6.1%。综合作用下，25Q1净利率同比提升0.5 个百 分点至54.0%。2、25Q1 公司销售现金回款561.4 亿元，同比+21.4%，截至25Q1末合同负债87.9亿元， 同比-7.7%，现金流整体平稳。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai demonstrates strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 51.443 billion yuan and net profit of 26.847 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.67% and 11.56% respectively, solidifying its market position and instilling confidence in the industry [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Guizhou Moutai achieved total revenue of 51.443 billion yuan, a 10.67% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 26.847 billion yuan, up 11.56% [1] - For the full year 2024, the company reported total revenue of 174.144 billion yuan, a 15.66% increase, with total profit of 119.639 billion yuan, up 15.41%, and net profit of 86.228 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.38% growth [1] Market Strategy - Guizhou Moutai employs a dual-channel strategy of "traditional channel deepening + direct sales channel enhancement," balancing agency and direct sales to create a healthier channel ecosystem, which has led to reduced inventory turnover days and stable high prepayments [1] - The company has seen a significant increase in sales of its series of products, with Q1 sales reaching 7.022 billion yuan, marking an 18.3% year-on-year growth, driven by strong demand for its flagship product, Feitian Moutai [2] Product Development - Moutai's product lineup includes a pyramid structure, with high-end products like Moutai 1935 at the top, mid-range products like the upgraded Prince Wine (Sauce Aroma Classic) 2.0, and entry-level products like the 100ml "Little Moutai," catering to a wide price range and avoiding competition with the main brand [2] - The company has successfully increased its market share in celebratory occasions, achieving a 28% market share in banquet wines in regions like Guangdong and Fujian, with a bottle opening rate of 67% [3] International Expansion - In Q1, Guizhou Moutai's overseas revenue reached 1.119 billion yuan, a 37.53% increase, showcasing significant progress in international market expansion [3] - The company has implemented a "One Belt, One Road" strategy, distributing products to 64 countries and regions across five continents, enhancing its global influence [3] Industry Position - Guizhou Moutai is viewed as a pillar of the Chinese liquor industry, with its pricing stability benefiting other high-end liquor brands, ensuring their survival and competitiveness [4] - The company is recognized for its strong risk resistance and long-term value, with public funds heavily invested, reflecting market confidence in its brand and performance [7] Management and Future Outlook - The management has initiated a series of in-depth market research activities to adapt to changing consumer behaviors, focusing on three transformations: customer, scenario, and service [5] - The company aims to enhance consumer engagement and address supply-demand mismatches, with a focus on building a collaborative channel ecosystem [6] - Analysts project a revenue growth target of 9% for 2025, supported by product innovations and strategic channel adjustments [7]

Core Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 51.443 billion yuan in the first quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.67% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 26.847 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.56%, exceeding the annual growth target of 9% [1][4] - The revenue from Moutai liquor was 43.557 billion yuan, growing by 9.7%, while the revenue from series liquor surged by 18.3% to 7.022 billion yuan, contributing to the company's second growth curve [4][5] Financial Highlights - The operating cash flow net amount was 8.809 billion yuan, with a cash balance of 176.548 billion yuan at the end of the period, reflecting a 3.87% increase from the beginning of the year [5] - The company's asset-liability ratio remained low at 14.14%, indicating strong financial health [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on a "three transformations" strategy to adapt to the industry's shift from "incremental expansion" to "stock competition," targeting the Z generation and high-net-worth individuals [6] - The international revenue reached 1.119 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 37.53%, with plans to exceed 5 billion yuan in overseas revenue by 2024 [6] - The company is enhancing its global presence through partnerships with international distributors and participation in global events to strengthen brand output [6]