作者|远禾 数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com） 近日，白酒板块突然躁动。 1月29日，板块整体上涨超9%。 除了贵州茅台、泸州老窖外，皇台酒业、金徽酒、酒鬼酒等直接涨停，贵州茅台也创下近一段时间的单日最大涨幅。 然而次日，行情突变，除皇台酒业仍继续涨停外，贵州茅台等一众酒企已然明显转跌。 昙花一现的暴涨之后，如今的白酒板块，到底是"回光返照"，还是"彻底反转"？ 01 白酒板块的回暖，一方面看，主要是由于如今商业航天、存储芯片等板块已经处于相对高位，贵金属为代表的有色方向近期同样反复活跃，而白酒板块如今 处于相对底部，顺应了市场高低切的内在需求。 而另一方面，则来源于飞天茅台批发价的企稳。 但白酒板块的基本面，仍未彻底反转。 过去的一年里，飞天茅台批价一度跌破1500元，白酒行业也经历了最严峻的挑战。 同花顺iFind数据显示，申万白酒指数2025年全年下跌超过13%，十八家上市酒企中，仅有三家微涨。 2026年一开年，白酒行业更是大面积"暴雷"，众酒企纷纷发布业绩预减甚至预亏报告。 如今临近春节旺季，飞天茅台需求上涨，部分茅台经销商到货的飞天茅台一月和二月配额已售罄。 因此，飞天茅 ...

作者 | 远禾 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 近日，白酒板块突然躁动。 1 月 29 日，板块整体上涨超 9% 。 除了贵州茅台、泸州老窖外，皇台酒业、金徽酒、酒鬼酒等直接涨停，贵州茅台也创下近一段时间的单日最大涨幅。 然而次日，行情突变，除皇台酒业仍继续涨停外，贵州茅台等一众酒企已然明显转跌。 昙花一现的暴涨之后，如今的白酒板块，到底是 "回光返照"，还是"彻底反转"？ 01 白酒板块的回暖，一方面看，主要是由于如今商业航天、存储芯片等板块已经处于相对高位，贵金属为代表的有色方向近期同样反复活跃，而 白酒板块如今处于相对底部，顺应了市场高低切的内在需求。 而另一方面，则来源于飞天茅台批发价的企稳。 如今临近春节旺季，飞天茅台需求上涨，部分茅台经销商到货的飞天茅台一月和二月配额已售罄。 因此，飞天茅台批价近日持续上涨， 30 日更是单日上涨 1000 元，批价已然超过 1700 元 / 瓶。 但白酒板块的基本面，仍未彻底反转。 过去的一年里，飞天茅台批价一度跌破 1500 元，白酒行业也经历了最严峻的挑战。 同花顺 iFind 数据显示，申万白酒指数 2025 年全年下跌超过 ...

高端白酒近况跟踪 20251229 摘要 茅台调整产品结构，珍品茅台停产，生肖酒减半，小包装和公斤装产品 减量 30%，飞天茅台保持供应稳定，通过减少非标产品供应增加飞天茅 台供应，稳定市场价格。 高价位产品如生肖酒和 15 年陈酿减量，精品茅台作为补充，长期目标 销量达 500 亿元，预计精品茅台调价至 2,100 元左右，2026 年实施合 同制筛选经销商。 2026 年开门红订单已发布，仅涉及飞天系列，占全年任务的 6%，预计 整个开门红期间订单比例可达 20%左右。非标产品转向合同制，根据经 销商综合表现筛选。 茅台将引入线上、电商、特区及私域客户新经销商，代售和寄售模式主 要体现在线上销售，经销商专卖店转化为线下提货点，解决区域供需不 平衡问题。 公司理想的飞天价格在 1,500~1,700 元之间，取消硬性配比后，经销 商综合成本控制，有助于产品流速加快，经销商对明年维持该价格区间 有信心。 Q&A 茅台近期的经销商大会透露了哪些主要信息？ 大会主要强调 2026 年将更好地适配供需关系，并取消一些硬性分销产品，以 实现各渠道的协同发力。12 月 13 日，公司曾透露了一些关于明年规划的信息， 特 ...

Core Insights - The price of Chinese liquor, particularly Moutai, is experiencing a significant decline, leading to a collapse of the previous consensus on its value [1][3] - The overall liquor industry is facing a crisis, with a notable drop in production and sales across various segments, including red wine [3][5] Group 1: Moutai and Liquor Pricing - Moutai's wholesale price has plummeted from 2200 yuan to 1640 yuan, a decrease of over 26% [3] - The price of Moutai 1935 has dropped by more than two-thirds, now below 600 yuan [3] - E-commerce platforms are reportedly misinterpreted as prohibiting price reductions, but they claim to be combating counterfeit products instead [1] Group 2: Industry Performance and Trends - The production of Chinese liquor fell to 414.5 million tons last year, a 30% decrease from 2016, and further declined to 265.5 million tons in the first nine months of this year, a nearly 10% year-on-year drop [3][5] - Over 90% of liquor companies reported declines in both revenue and profit, with some experiencing profit drops of up to 90% [3][5] - Inventory turnover days exceed 180 days for most companies, with some reaching 300 days, indicating severe inventory pressure across the industry [5] Group 3: Red Wine Market Decline - Domestic red wine production has fallen to 260 million liters, a 17% decrease compared to the previous year, and down over 77% from its peak in 2015 [5] - The consumption of red wine has also dropped by 19.3%, with only 550 million liters consumed last year [5] - The number of domestic red wine companies has decreased from thousands to fewer than 3000, reflecting a significant contraction in the market [5] Group 4: Changing Consumer Behavior - There is a growing awareness among consumers regarding the actual costs of imported wines, leading to a decline in perceived value and pricing power [7] - Health consciousness among consumers is shifting preferences away from alcohol, particularly among younger demographics [7] - The liquor industry is facing a "winter" period, with brands needing to adapt to changing consumer preferences and price sensitivity [7]

Core Insights - The essence of price control is a collective agreement among brands, distributors, and consumers, but it is fragile and can easily collapse if one party breaks the agreement [1][2] - The price of Moutai has significantly dropped from 2100 yuan to below 1700 yuan, indicating a breakdown in the pricing structure [1][5] - The cultural significance of Moutai as a social symbol is eroding, leading to a decline in its market value [6][10] Pricing Dynamics - Price control measures have been implemented by Moutai, including strict penalties for price violations and incentives for compliant sellers, but these efforts have proven ineffective [3][4] - The market is experiencing a downward spiral where falling prices lead to increased selling pressure, resulting in further price declines [5][14] Cultural Context - The consumption of Moutai has historically been tied to social status and power dynamics, but this cultural relevance is diminishing as younger generations reject traditional drinking customs [7][11][13] - The social function of Moutai as a means of establishing relationships and confirming social hierarchies is collapsing, leading to decreased demand [9][10][14] Investment Perspective - Moutai is losing its status as a reliable investment asset, as younger consumers prioritize liquidity and risk over traditional forms of investment [15][16] - The generational divide in investment attitudes is contributing to a decline in Moutai's perceived value, as younger individuals are less willing to invest in assets that lack immediate cash flow [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly high-end baijiu, is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices and consumption dropping sharply, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and preferences [5][10][31]. Group 1: Baijiu Market Analysis - The wholesale price of Moutai has fallen below 1,600 yuan, marking a decline of over 31% since the beginning of the year, with some export versions priced as low as 1,484 yuan [5]. - The performance of major baijiu companies has deteriorated, with over half of the 20 listed baijiu companies reporting a decline in profits, and some regional companies facing a 90% drop in net profits [8]. - The overall inventory turnover days for the baijiu industry exceed 180 days, indicating significant inventory pressure across the entire supply chain [8]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Changes - There is a notable decline in alcohol consumption among Chinese consumers, with the production of baijiu expected to drop to 414.5 thousand tons in 2024, less than one-third of the 1,358.4 thousand tons produced in 2016 [12]. - The younger generation shows a marked disinterest in baijiu, with only 19% of consumers aged 20-35 expressing a preference for it, compared to 52% for beer [29]. - The trend of "no baijiu" at weddings has increased, with 17% of couples opting for alcohol-free tables in 2025, up from 5% in 2020 [29]. Group 3: Beer Market Dynamics - The beer market is also facing challenges, with national production expected to decline by over 10% from its peak in 2013, and major brands like Budweiser experiencing an 8.2% drop in sales [15][21]. - The craft beer segment is growing, with over 7,400 craft breweries established, and the market size reaching 130 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards premium and unique beer offerings [23]. - Traditional beer consumption patterns are changing, with home drinking and outdoor activities becoming more popular, leading to a rise in instant retail orders [24]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The liquor industry is undergoing a transformation, with major companies attempting to adapt by launching new product lines aimed at younger consumers, but the effectiveness of these strategies remains uncertain [31]. - The overall sentiment suggests that the current downturn in liquor prices may not be a temporary cycle, but rather indicative of deeper, long-term changes in consumer preferences and market dynamics [34].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly high-end liquor, is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices and consumption declining sharply, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and preferences [5][9][11]. Group 1: Liquor Price Decline - The wholesale price of 53-degree Feitian Moutai has dropped below 1600 yuan, reaching a historical low of 1640 yuan, a decline of over 31% since the beginning of the year [6][9]. - Other Moutai variants have also seen drastic price reductions, with some export versions priced as low as 1484 yuan, while dealer acquisition costs remain between 1600 and 1700 yuan [7]. - The overall performance of the liquor industry is suffering, with over half of the 20 listed liquor companies reporting a decline in profits, and some regional companies experiencing profit drops of up to 90% [11][12]. Group 2: Industry-Wide Impact - The crisis has spread throughout the liquor industry, with inventory turnover days exceeding 180 days for most companies, and some reaching 300 days, indicating severe inventory pressure [11][12]. - The financial attributes of high-end liquor are diminishing, reverting to commodity status, as both speculative buyers and regular consumers are increasingly disinterested [14][16]. Group 3: Changing Consumption Patterns - The overall liquor consumption in China is declining, with 2024 white liquor production projected at 414.5 million tons, less than one-third of the 2016 peak of 1358.4 million tons [27]. - Beer production is also on the decline, with a projected 2024 output of over 34 million tons, a 5% decrease year-on-year, and a significant drop from the 2013 peak of 50.62 million tons [32][33]. - The domestic red wine market is facing a severe contraction, with production expected to fall to 260 million liters in 2024, a 17% year-on-year decline, and a staggering 77% drop from its 2015 peak [39][40]. Group 4: Shifts in Consumer Preferences - Younger consumers show a marked preference for beer and other alcoholic beverages over traditional white liquor, with only 19% of 20-35-year-olds expressing a liking for white liquor compared to 52% for beer [76]. - The frequency of white liquor at social events is declining, with 17% of newlyweds opting for "no white liquor" at their weddings in 2025, a 12% increase from 2020 [78]. - The trend of "good liquor without excessive drinking" is emerging, as consumers seek quality over quantity, leading to a rise in craft beer popularity [59][62]. Group 5: Industry Response - Major liquor companies are attempting to adapt by launching new product lines aimed at younger consumers, such as low-alcohol options and creative packaging [81]. - Despite these efforts, the effectiveness of these strategies remains questionable, as the market dynamics continue to shift away from traditional high-end liquor consumption [84].

Core Viewpoint - The performance slowdown of Kweichow Moutai has significantly impacted its ecosystem, shifting distributors from a "lying down to earn" mode to a "survival" mode, with various market indicators reflecting this change [1][2]. Financial Performance - Kweichow Moutai's Q3 financial report shows the lowest revenue and net profit growth since 2015, with a revenue growth of 6.3% in the first three quarters. To meet the annual target of 9%, Q4 must achieve approximately 59 billion yuan in revenue, requiring a year-on-year growth of over 17% [2][3]. - The company’s revenue accounts for 22% of the overall sales in the liquor industry, indicating that its slowdown reflects broader industry pressures [2]. Market Dynamics - The pawn price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below 1,000 yuan, leading some pawn shops to suspend alcohol collection. Additionally, scalpers have halted purchases due to daily losses, and the collectibles market has cooled significantly [1][2][5]. - The financial attributes of Moutai are diminishing, with fewer customers willing to pawn Moutai compared to gold, as the latter has retained higher value [6]. Distributor Challenges - Distributors are facing a decline in customer demand, with many transitioning to alternative revenue streams, such as selling cigarettes and lottery tickets, to cope with the downturn [10][11]. - The sales of Moutai series liquor have also declined, with a 7.78% drop in revenue for the first three quarters, marking a significant shift in the market dynamics [11][12]. Leadership Changes - Kweichow Moutai is undergoing its fourth leadership change in five years, with the new chairman expected to bring new strategies and policies, which may create uncertainty among distributors and the market [2][3]. Collectibles and Market Sentiment - The collectibles market for Moutai has seen a significant decline, with prices dropping by at least one-third compared to previous acquisition prices, leading to a shift in management and operational strategies within Moutai's collectible associations [8][9]. - The belief in the value of Moutai is eroding, with former scalpers now shifting their focus to other products, indicating a broader loss of confidence in the Moutai brand [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's Q3 financial report shows the lowest revenue and net profit growth since 2015, indicating a significant slowdown in performance and potential challenges in meeting annual targets [2] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, Guizhou Moutai's revenue growth was 6.3%, requiring approximately 590 billion yuan in Q4 to achieve a 9% annual growth target, which translates to over 17% year-on-year growth [2] - The company's revenue accounts for 22% of the overall sales in the Chinese liquor industry, reflecting the broader pressure on the sector [2] Market Dynamics - The slowdown has shifted the Moutai ecosystem from a "lying down to earn" model to a "survival" mode for distributors, with the pawn price of Feitian Moutai dropping below 1,000 yuan [2][4] - The demand for Moutai among traditional high-end clients, such as construction and real estate companies, has decreased due to reduced business activities and tighter fiscal policies [3] Leadership Changes - Guizhou Moutai has undergone its fourth leadership change in five years, with the appointment of Chen Hua as the new chairman, raising concerns about potential market strategy shifts and continuity [2][3] Sales and Distribution Challenges - Moutai's series liquor revenue fell by 7.78% in the first three quarters, with the proportion of series liquor in total revenue declining to 13.89% [10] - Distributors are facing inventory buildup and cash flow issues, with some resorting to selling other products to maintain revenue [10][12] Collectors and Pawn Market - The financial appeal of Moutai has diminished, with pawn shops offering significantly lower prices than before, indicating a loss of confidence in Moutai's value as an investment [5][6] - The restructuring of Moutai's collectors' associations has led to a decline in sales prices for collectible Moutai, with many collectors facing financial losses [8] Stock Market Reaction - Moutai's stock price has been stagnant, with a decline of approximately 0.93% since the beginning of the year, reflecting investor sentiment amid the company's performance challenges [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in the face of industry pressures, achieving positive growth despite a challenging demand environment. However, the annual revenue growth target of 9% is likely to be difficult to achieve, necessitating a potential downward adjustment of expectations [2] - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 130.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 64.6 billion yuan, also up 6.25% [1][2] - The company is experiencing a phase of adjustment in its series liquor segment, while the flagship product, Moutai liquor, continues to show stable growth [2] - The direct sales channel is facing pricing challenges, with a significant drop in revenue from direct sales compared to distributors [2] - The new leadership is focused on balancing pricing and performance amid fluctuating market conditions [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 150.56 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.0%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 174.14 billion yuan, growing at 15.7%, and for 2025, it is estimated at 182.95 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.1% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 74.73 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 86.23 billion yuan in 2024, and 90.51 billion yuan in 2025, with respective growth rates of 19.2%, 15.4%, and 5.0% [3] - The gross margin is expected to remain high, around 92.0% in 2023, gradually decreasing to 91.4% by 2027 [3] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 59.68 yuan in 2023, increasing to 72.27 yuan in 2025, and reaching 79.74 yuan by 2027 [3]