Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience and strategic initiatives of Guizhou Moutai Sauce Aroma Liquor Company amidst a challenging period for the liquor industry, emphasizing its strong brand, product focus, channel support, and service enhancement to achieve its operational goals and maintain growth momentum [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Context and Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment cycle, with consumption patterns rapidly restructuring [1]. - Guizhou Moutai Sauce Aroma Liquor Company achieved a revenue of 246.84 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.65% [1]. - Moutai Group's strategic determination and collaboration with distributors have been crucial in navigating the industry's challenges [1]. Group 2: Strategic Investments and Research Development - On July 22, 2025, Moutai Group announced a joint investment of 1 billion yuan to establish the Guizhou Moutai Distillery (Group) Science and Technology Research Institute, focusing on innovation in liquor brewing technology and industry chain advancements [3]. - Moutai's R&D investment increased by 11% in 2024, with a target of 10.2% growth in 2025, reflecting a commitment to technological transformation [3]. - The establishment of the research institute aims to create a comprehensive research system covering the entire liquor production chain, enhancing the industry's future prospects [3]. Group 3: Financial Resilience and Brand Strength - Moutai is the only trillion-level enterprise in the liquor industry to maintain over 15% growth for three consecutive years, with total revenue reaching 1,741.44 billion yuan and profit totaling 1,196.39 billion yuan in 2024, both showing year-on-year increases of 15.66% and 15.41% respectively [5]. - The brand's strong recognition and premium positioning allow it to dominate the high-end market despite shifting consumer trends [5]. - Moutai has established a comprehensive control over its supply chain, enhancing its ability to withstand risks [5]. Group 4: Market Strategies and Consumer Engagement - Moutai Sauce Aroma Liquor Company is implementing a "three-end synergy" strategy to enhance channel connectivity between brands and consumers, actively engaging with new retail platforms [8]. - The company is transitioning from merely selling products to promoting a lifestyle, enhancing consumer value through cultural and quality experiences [11]. - Initiatives include hosting events to elevate brand experience and launching product upgrades to meet consumer expectations [11]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Industry Leadership - Moutai's leadership emphasizes the importance of a strong brand quality advantage, stable channel resources, and adaptability in responding to market changes [12]. - The company aims to drive the industry towards value-driven growth, setting a standard for combating counterfeit products and promoting sales regulations [12]. - Moutai's innovative and regulatory approach is expected to solidify its position as a leader in high-quality development during the industry's adjustment phase [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent changes at Kweichow Moutai, including the shift from traditional banquets to self-service meals without alcohol, reflect a strategic response to new government regulations aimed at reducing extravagance in public spending and promoting a return to the essence of Chinese liquor culture [2][3][4]. Regulatory Context - The new "Regulations on Strict Economy and Opposition to Waste in Party and Government Agencies" prohibits high-end dishes, cigarettes, and alcohol at official meals, which has influenced Moutai's recent decisions [4][6]. - Moutai's actions are seen as a proactive alignment with these regulations, setting a positive example for other state-owned enterprises [3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Moutai's revenue surpassed 50 billion yuan, reaching 50.601 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.54%, while net profit grew by 11.56% to 26.847 billion yuan [8]. - The company is facing pressure on its pricing structure, with the wholesale price of its flagship product dropping from 2,700 yuan to 2,200 yuan per bottle [8]. Strategic Adjustments - Moutai is implementing a "control quantity to maintain price" strategy to stabilize its pricing amid regulatory changes, which may sacrifice short-term growth for long-term stability [8][9]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its direct sales channels, which accounted for 45.89% of revenue in Q1 2025, growing by 20.2% year-on-year [7][13]. Market Dynamics - The white liquor industry is experiencing a shift from "incremental competition" to "stock competition," with excess capacity and high channel inventory posing challenges [15]. - Moutai's strategy includes optimizing its product structure by increasing the availability of non-standard products and series liquor, which are expected to drive growth [12][14]. Brand Positioning - Moutai aims to reshape its brand image from being perceived as "expensive" and "luxurious" to a more accessible and community-oriented identity, as evidenced by its recent initiatives [12][14]. - The company is also exploring new consumption scenarios, such as online sales and smaller packaging formats, to adapt to changing consumer preferences [9][12]. Long-term Vision - Moutai's management emphasizes a combination of short-term marketing, mid-term internationalization, and long-term resilience in its strategic planning [14]. - The company's recent decisions are viewed as a significant step towards a more sustainable and adaptable business model in the face of evolving market conditions [15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][10][18] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 51.443 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.7%, and a net profit of 26.847 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, showcasing resilience amid demand contraction [1] - The growth in revenue is attributed to a decrease in tax rates, with net profit growth outpacing revenue growth [1][4] - The company expects to achieve a 9% revenue growth target for the full year 2025, with a focus on expanding consumer reach and innovative consumption scenarios [4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q1 2025, the revenue from Moutai liquor was 43.557 billion yuan, a 9.7% increase year-on-year, while series liquor revenue reached 7.022 billion yuan, growing 18.3% year-on-year [2] - Direct sales channel revenue increased by 20.2% year-on-year, accounting for 45.9% of total revenue, driven by enhanced customer acquisition capabilities [2][3] - The overall net profit margin improved by 0.42 percentage points to 52.2% in Q1 2025, despite a slight decline in gross margin [3] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts total revenue of 190.754 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.5%, and net profit of 94.268 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.3% increase [5][4] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 75.04 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.6 for 2025 [5][10] - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) of 36.7% for 2025, indicating robust profitability [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 2600 CNY [1][8] Core Insights - The company reported a strong start to 2025, with Q1 total revenue reaching 51.44 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 26.85 billion CNY, up 11.6% [1][8] - Sales collections increased by 21.4% to 56.14 billion CNY, while operating cash flow decreased by 4.1% to 8.81 billion CNY [1][8] - The report highlights the company's robust performance in the first quarter, showcasing its resilience as a market leader, with significant contributions from both direct sales and series liquor products [1][8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 174.14 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 15.7%, and net profit at 86.23 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 15.4% [4][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is estimated at 75.37 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21 [4][8] - The company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.2%, indicating strong financial health [4][8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively transforming its strategy to adapt to market conditions, enhancing shareholder returns through increased buyback programs and dividends [1][8] - The report emphasizes the company's ability to manage supply and demand effectively, ensuring price stability for its flagship products [1][8] - The international revenue growth of 37.5% indicates successful expansion of its global footprint [1][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a solid start in Q1 2025 with total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 514.4 billion and 268.5 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10.7% and 11.6% [1][2] - The growth is supported by strong performance in both product and channel segments, with notable increases in direct sales and series liquor revenue [2][3] - The company is expected to continue its high-quality growth trajectory, driven by its leading brand and quality, refined pricing strategies, and ongoing expansion into overseas markets [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor of 435.6 billion and 70.2 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.7% and 18.3% [2] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 92.1%, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 0.4 percentage points to 52.2% [3] - Sales collection reached 561.4 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.4% [3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted upwards to 74.83, 81.59, and 89.29 RMB, respectively, reflecting a 0.9% increase from previous estimates [4] - The target price for the company is set at 1,945.58 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 26x for 2025 [4][8] Market Position - The company is positioned as an industry leader with a market-oriented and refined governance structure, which is expected to support its high-quality development [4]

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Kweichow Moutai achieved a revenue growth of approximately 15.66% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by about 15.38%, successfully meeting its annual targets [1][2][6] Financial Performance - The company reported total operating revenue of 174.144 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.228 billion yuan, also up by 15.38% [1][2] - In Q4 alone, the company achieved operating revenue of 51.022 billion yuan, a growth of 12.77%, and a net profit of 25.401 billion yuan, increasing by 16.21% [1][2] Product Performance - Moutai liquor contributed 145.928 billion yuan in revenue for the year, growing by 15.28%, while series liquor generated 24.684 billion yuan, with a growth of 19.65% [2][3] - In Q4, Moutai liquor revenue was 44.802 billion yuan, up 13.94%, and series liquor revenue was 5.291 billion yuan, growing by 5.07% [2][3] Sales Channels - The company focused on a "4+6" channel strategy, with wholesale revenue reaching 95.769 billion yuan, a growth of 19.73%, while direct sales contributed 74.843 billion yuan, increasing by 11.32% [3][4] - Online platforms, including i Moutai, generated sales of 2.096 billion yuan, up 14.4% [3][4] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 92.08%, with a net profit margin of 49.52%, showing slight year-on-year declines [4][5] - In Q4, the gross margin improved to 93.02%, and the net profit margin increased to 49.78% [4][5] Cost Management - The sales expense ratio for 2024 was 3.24%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points, while the management expense ratio was 5.35%, a decrease of 1.11 percentage points [5] - The company invested 3.745 billion yuan in marketing and service fees, reflecting a growth of 33.09% [5] Future Outlook - For 2025, the company aims for a revenue growth target of approximately 9% and plans to invest 4.711 billion yuan in fixed assets [6][7] - The strategy includes adjusting product offerings and enhancing channel collaboration to meet diverse market demands [7] Dividend Policy - The company announced a total dividend of 64.672 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 75% [8] - The company has completed a share buyback plan, having repurchased 1.599 billion yuan worth of shares [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 174.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [8] - The company has flexibly adjusted its sales policies and product offerings to ensure the smooth completion of its annual operational plan, with specific revenue contributions from different product lines and channels [8] - The company aims for a total revenue growth of 9% in 2025, with a stable start in Q1, supported by optimized product and channel strategies [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 150.56 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 174.14 billion yuan in 2024A, and further growth to 190.05 billion yuan in 2025E [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 74.73 billion yuan in 2023A to 86.22 billion yuan in 2024A, and reach 93.20 billion yuan in 2025E [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to increase from 59.49 yuan in 2023A to 68.64 yuan in 2024A, and further to 74.19 yuan in 2025E [1] - The current P/E ratio is 26.04, expected to decrease to 22.57 in 2024A and 20.88 in 2025E [1] Revenue and Profit Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from Moutai liquor reached 145.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.3%, while series liquor revenue was 24.68 billion yuan, growing by 19.7% [8] - The company’s direct sales revenue in 2024 was 74.84 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.3% increase [8] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 52.3%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [8] Future Outlook - The company has updated its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 93.20 billion yuan and 100.94 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 110.28 billion yuan [8] - The company is expected to maintain a stable pricing strategy for its products, particularly for Moutai liquor and series liquor, to support revenue growth [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 15% in 2024, with a target revenue growth of 9% for 2025 [1][5]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 174.14 billion yuan, with a net profit of 86.23 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 15.66% and 15.38%, respectively [1][5]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 75% for 2024, consistent with its dividend return plan [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company expects revenue from Moutai liquor to reach 145.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.28%, and a sales volume of 46,000 tons, up 10.22% [2]. - The series liquor segment is anticipated to grow faster than Moutai liquor, with a revenue of 24.68 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.65% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Moutai liquor is projected to decline slightly due to increased labor costs, while the wholesale channel is expected to grow significantly [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with expected revenues of 190.75 billion yuan and 207.07 billion yuan, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 9.5% and 8.6% [5][11]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 94.27 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [5][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 75.04 yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 9.3% [5][11]. Market Strategy - The company aims to respect market dynamics in its product launch strategy, focusing on stabilizing prices and adjusting distribution channels for its products [4]. - The sales model for Moutai 1935 is undergoing reform, with expected growth concentrated in kilogram packaging and cultural IP products [4]. - Increased marketing expenses are planned to expand diversified channels and promote genuine consumer engagement [4].

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月03日 贵州茅台（600519.SH） 优于大市 2024 年稳健收官，2025 年目标收入增长 9% 2024 年收入及净利润高于此前预告。2024 年公司实现营业总收入 1741.4 亿 元/同比+15.66%，归母净利润 862.3 亿元/同比+15.38%。其中 2024Q4 实现 营业总收入510.2亿元/同比+12.77%，归母净利润254.0亿元/同比+16.21%， 高于此前预告值。结合中期分红计算 2024 年度分红率 75%，与分红回报规 划一致。 2024 年增长稳健，系列酒增速快于茅台酒。茅台酒 2024 年营收 1459.3 亿元 /+15.28%，销量 4.6 万吨/+10.22%（增量 4303 吨），吨价 314.4 万元/+4.59%， 主要系普飞提价拉动，增量预计多由公斤装飞天、生肖茅台贡献。茅台酒毛 利率同比下降 0.1pcts，主要系人工成本提高所致；飞天提价驱动 2024 年 批发渠道增长较快（收入同比+19.73%），而经销商增量公斤装又导致直销 渠道吨价下降（同比-4.48%）。系列酒 2024 年营收 246.8 亿元/+19. ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 贵州茅台（600519） 2024 年报点评：平稳兑现，目标积极 2025 年 04 月 03 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 150560 | 174144 | 190054 | 206830 | 227000 | | 同比（%） | 18.04 | 15.66 | 9.14 | 8.83 | 9.75 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 74734 | 86228 | 93203 | 100938 | 110277 | | 同比（%） | 19.16 | 15.38 | 8.09 | 8.30 | 9.25 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 59.49 | 68.64 | 74.19 | 80.35 | 87.79 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 26.04 | 22.57 | 20.88 | 19.28 | 17.65 | [Table_Ta ...