证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 业绩比较基准新规落地，比较及影响 1 月 23 日，证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准指引》，同日基 金业协会发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准操作细则》。上述两项文 件分别从规则和实操层面对公募基金业绩比较基准的制定与执行作出规范。 本文聚焦债基视角，从正式稿与征求意见稿对比、债基业绩比较基准概况以及 新规对债市投资的影响三方面展开分析。 一、正式稿 VS 征求意见稿 《指引》作为顶层设计，划定监管红线与核心原则，共有六章二十一条。主要 内容包括明确基准的选取规范，严格基准的变更要求，加强基准的信息披露， 强化基准的约束作用，突出基准衡量业绩的作用等。 《操作细则》为《指引》的配套实操文件，对业绩比较基准相关内容进行了更 为详细的规定。此处重点关注明确提及债券基金业绩比较基准要求的三点：（1） 基准匹配：正式稿第十条，例如"对于基金合同中明确专注于特定市场、券种、 久期、信用等级的产品，原则上以相应市场、券种、久期、信用等级的债券指 数作为业绩比较基准要素"等。（2）基准信披：正式稿第十三条，货基、债基 定期报告的基准信披有所弱化。（3）基准跟踪：正式 ...

张大伟 制图 ◎记者 赵明超 重磅新规日前落地，公募基金行业积极行动适应"硬约束"。 近日，《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准指引》（下称《指引》）发布，从制度层面强化业绩比较 基准的"锚定"效力与"标尺"功能。据了解，各家基金公司已安排讨论相关事项，加强对业绩比较基准的 选择论证。 在业内人士看来，业绩比较基准从形式参考转变为投资的"硬约束"，将让基金产品画像更清晰，推动行 业从"规模导向"向"投资者回报导向"转型。 从源头规范行业行为 回顾公募行业发展历程，过往针对基金业绩比较基准，法规制度缺乏专门性、系统性的规定，仅在信息 披露、特殊产品设计等监管规则中有零散要求。与此同时，在行业快速发展过程中，"风格漂移""基金 盲盒"等现象屡见不鲜，引起较大争议。在业内人士看来，《指引》的落地将从源头规范行业行为。 "《指引》作为行业首个专门性、系统性的业绩比较基准监管规则，将有效规范行业秩序、强化投资纪 律，助力公募基金高质量发展。"易方达基金副总裁王骏对上海证券报记者表示，长远来看，一个基准 清晰、风格稳定、运作透明的基金市场，能更好地匹配居民财富管理需求，提升投资者的信任感与获得 感。 事实上，自2025年以 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts during its upcoming meeting, with a 95.6% probability of maintaining current rates and only a 4.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut [1] - Beijing's economic development goals for 2026 include a GDP growth target of around 5%, a public budget revenue increase of about 4%, and a control of the urban unemployment rate within 5% [2] - Shandong Province's GDP surpassed 10 trillion yuan, reaching 10,319.7 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 5.5% increase from the previous year [3] Group 2: Financial Regulations and Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released new guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks, establishing a one-year transition period to minimize market impact [4] - The CSRC has expanded the range of futures and options available for domestic trading, adding 14 new products to attract foreign investors [5] - The CSRC imposed a record fine of over 28 million yuan on Zhejiang Ruifengda Asset Management Co., reflecting a zero-tolerance policy towards serious violations in the private fund sector [6] Group 3: Market Movements and Corporate Actions - Samsung Electronics has raised the price of NAND flash memory by over 100% in the first quarter, highlighting a significant supply-demand imbalance in the semiconductor market [9] - Two companies, Fenglong Co. and Jiamei Packaging, have announced stock suspensions for review due to significant price increases of 405.74% and 408.11%, respectively, indicating potential trading risks [10] - Zhongke Aerospace has completed its IPO counseling, marking progress in the commercial rocket sector [11] Group 4: Consumer Products and Promotions - Apple has launched a limited-time discount event on various products, including the iPhone 16 series and MacBook, with savings of up to 1,000 yuan on select items [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook for the insurance sector, indicating a strong continuity in market performance despite recent fluctuations [2][12][16]. Core Insights - The financial sector experienced a mixed performance this week, with the non-bank financial index down by 1.45%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.83 percentage points. The insurance sector saw a decline of 4.02%, while the brokerage sector decreased by 0.61% [1][10]. - The insurance sector's performance is driven by two main factors: policy support leading to economic recovery and liquidity easing combined with a strong stock market. The report suggests a shift from liquidity-driven growth to a focus on macro policy support and economic recovery expectations [2][13][16]. - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from new regulations that enhance investment management quality, with a recommendation to focus on larger, undervalued firms and those involved in mergers and acquisitions [3][18]. - The banking sector is facing a slight decline, but there are signs of recovery in profitability for leading banks, with recommendations to focus on banks with high dividend yields and those expected to benefit from market conditions [19][21]. Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's recent decline is attributed to short-term market sentiment and liquidity changes, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong support from both the liability and asset sides [2][12][16]. - Key recommendations include focusing on companies like China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, China Life (H), and China Taiping, with a specific recommendation for New China Life [4][16]. Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector's performance is slightly better than the overall market, with a focus on the new guidelines from the regulatory body that aim to improve fund management quality [3][17]. - Recommended firms include Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and others, particularly those with strong merger and acquisition prospects [4][18]. Banking Sector - The banking sector has shown a decline but is expected to stabilize, with recommendations to focus on banks with high earnings elasticity and strong dividend yields [19][21]. - Specific banks to watch include Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, and others, with a focus on those that have previously been undervalued [4][21].

新规还强化了业绩比较基准的考核指挥棒作用。 一方面，明确管理人应建立以基金投资收益为核心的考核体系，体现产品业绩和投资者盈亏情况，健全 与基金投资收益相挂钩的薪酬管理机制。在衡量主动权益基金业绩时，要求管理人应当加强与业绩比较 基准对比，基金长期投资业绩明显低于业绩比较基准的，相关基金经理的绩效薪酬应当明显下降。 另一方面，规范基金评价评奖机制，改变全市场排名导向，要求基金评价机构应当将业绩比较基准作为 评价基金投资管理情况的重要依据。同时，要求基金管理人、销售机构、评价机构在进行权益类基金投 资业绩排序或者排名时，应结合业绩比较基准进行合理分类。 销售时应展示业绩比较基准表现 （上接1版） 新规要求发挥业绩比较基准"锚"的作用，杜绝"挂羊头、卖狗肉""风格漂移"等问题。根据《指引》《操 作细则》，管理人需要：建立健全覆盖业绩比较基准选取、披露、监测、纠偏和问责等全流程管控机 制；提高基准选取的决策层级，由公司管理层对基准选取进行决策，并对选取基准承担主要责任；强化 内部监督力度，由独立部门负责监测基金偏离情况，由投资决策委员会对偏离进行判断，对投资形成监 督约束。 新规强化了基准的外部监督。在托管监督方面， ...

来源：中金点睛 主动 VS 指数：震荡期与新规下的双重考验 今年以来，权益市场回暖向好，主动权益基金整体迎来规模抬升，相对指数产品的超额显著。据我们统 计，2025年1-11月，主动（+29.2%）相对指数（+17.0%）实现超过12个百分点的超额回报。不过随着 当下市场进入震荡平台期，后续主动产品是否能够持续跑赢指数仍然是较多投资者非常关心的问题。本 篇我们以主动权益超额收益为主题，从"纵"（时序预测：主动何时跑赢指数）与"横"（截面预测：如何 应用超额信息进行基金优选）两个维度进行深度拆解与投资应用实践。 "纵"：时序维度下如何预测主动权益超额水平？ 我们依据三大逻辑主线，挖掘出6个能够预测主动权益超额水平的指标：1）"投资主线与机构定价权强 弱"逻辑下，主动权益跟踪误差分化度（TE-S）、主动权益持仓集中度（HHI）指标具有长期预测能 力，即主动权益基金持仓集中或观点分歧较少时，其对于相关资产的定价主导权提升，超额收益存在提 升预期；2）"主动放大风险对应更强信心"逻辑下，主动权益跟踪误差环比变化（TE-MDQ）具有短期 预测能力，即当主动权益基金主动放大跟踪误差时，往往意味着基金管理人对于市场未来环境 ...