【中金不动产与空间服务】建发国际集团：经营优异，减值释压，"十五五"将轻装上阵 考虑结算节奏，我们预估公司2025年营业收入大致同比持平或略有下行；结算毛利率因存货结构与历史减值计提 充分，有望于2025年实现筑底企稳。 最后，因2H25地产景气度再度转为承压，我们判断公司核心净利润或因增量存货减值计提有所下行，预计同比下 降26%至31.6亿元。 销售有韧性，补库足、质量优 【中金不动产与空间服务】建发国际集团：经营优异，减值释压，"十五五"将轻装上阵 我们估测公司2025年全口径销售额同比-9%至1228亿元（Top30同比-14%），百强排名稳定为第7名，其中"灯塔战 略"稳步落实，北京、厦门、上海等项目已开盘且销售额居单城榜单前列；此外，北京、上海、杭州三城销售额市 占率分别提升至3.4%/2.7%/10.6%。 同时，公司把握机遇积极拓展优质储备，我们估测2025年1-11月累计拿地强度63%（重点房企平均为40%）。 考虑结算节奏，我们预估公司2025年营业收入大致同比持平或略有下行；结算毛利率因存货结构与历史减值计提 充分，有望于2025年实现筑底企稳。 最后，因2H25地产景气度再度转为承压， ...

业内人士表示，解读河化股份 2025 年业绩需穿透表面数据，看清核心逻辑：归母净利润的大幅下滑是 一次性基数效应导致的短期现象，而扣非净利润的翻倍增长、毛利率提升、现金流改善等一系列指标， 共同印证了公司主营业务的坚实韧性与经营质量的实质性提升。 一方面业务结构优化成效显著，子公司重庆南松医药科技有限公司是业绩的"压舱石"，其持续的技术研 发能力和可靠的生产制造流程，在医药中间体行业内保持优势地位。作为一家专业从事抗疟疾类、孕激 素类、营养剂类药物中间体研发、生产与销售的高新技术企业，其产品不仅供应国内市场，还销往中国 台湾、印度、芬兰等地，该板块利润比重持续加大，2025年前三季度实现净利润1,211.17万元，同比增 长213.28%，已成为公司最核心的利润来源；另一方面，公司降本增效举措落地见效，2025年前三季度 费用较上年同期大幅减少，管理费用同比下降29.91%，财务费用因归还控股股东借款下降80.07%，显 著提升了整体盈利水平。 值得关注的是，公司经营质量的改善还体现在多个维度。截止2025年9月末公司毛利率提升至 18.04%， 同比上升 4.03 个百分点；经营活动产生的现金流量净额达 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of Chinese oil stocks, particularly Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC, shows resilience amid declining oil prices, with expectations for long-term growth despite potential challenges in the oil market [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Sinopec (00386) increased by 3.6%, trading at 4.6 HKD - PetroChina (00857) rose by 2.71%, trading at 9.08 HKD - CNOOC (00883) gained 2.29%, trading at 22.3 HKD - CNOOC Services (02883) saw a rise of 1.02%, trading at 7.91 HKD [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Everbright Securities highlights the resilience of the "three oil giants" during the oil price downturn, projecting continued high capital expenditure and a focus on natural gas market expansion and downstream refining transformation [1] - Ping An Securities notes that geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties provide short-term support for oil prices, but long-term price trends will depend on fundamental factors, with concerns about oversupply as OPEC+ increases production [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of oil stocks, particularly Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC, reflects resilience amid declining oil prices, with expectations for long-term growth despite potential price fluctuations [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Sinopec (00386) increased by 3.6%, trading at HKD 4.6 [1] - PetroChina (00857) rose by 2.71%, reaching HKD 9.08 [1] - CNOOC (00883) saw a 2.29% increase, priced at HKD 22.3 [1] - CNOOC Services (601808) (02883) gained 1.02%, trading at HKD 7.91 [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - According to Everbright Securities, the "three oil giants" demonstrate performance resilience during periods of falling oil prices [1] - The outlook for 2026 includes sustained high capital expenditures, enhanced natural gas market development, and accelerated transformation of midstream and downstream refining businesses [1] - Ping An Securities notes that geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties provide short-term support for oil prices, but long-term price trends will be influenced by fundamental factors [1] Group 3: Price Dynamics - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, along with strained US relations, contributes to short-term oil price support [1] - However, there are concerns about a potential oversupply in the market as OPEC+ continues to increase production, which may lead to a downward adjustment in oil price levels post-peak season [1]

Group 1 - Oil stocks have seen significant gains, with China National Petroleum (601857) up 3.62% to HKD 8.31, China National Offshore Oil (600938) up 3.69% to HKD 20.5, Shanghai Petrochemical (600688) up 1.5% to HKD 1.35, and Sinopec (600028) up 1.45% to HKD 4.19 [1] - OPEC+ announced that eight member countries led by Saudi Arabia will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, consistent with the increases in October and November, but will pause production increases from January to March next year due to seasonal factors [1] - Following the OPEC+ announcement, Brent crude oil prices rose above USD 65 per barrel, while WTI crude oil hovered around USD 61 per barrel [1] Group 2 - According to a report from Everbright Securities, by Q3 2025, international oil and gas giants will experience a year-on-year decline in operating performance due to falling oil prices and low refining margins, with ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, and Total reporting net profit declines of -14.3%, -33.9%, -9.6%, and -13.4% respectively [2] - China's three major oil companies (China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, and Sinopec) showed a smaller decline in net profit compared to many international oil and gas giants during the oil price downturn, highlighting their operational resilience [2] - The three major oil companies continue to strengthen their reserves and production, indicating long-term value [2]

消息面上，周日，OPEC+在线上会议后表示，以沙特为首的八个成员国将在12月提高产量13.7万桶/日，这与10月和11月 的增产幅度一致。但该组织同时宣布，考虑到季节性因素，将在明年1-3月暂停增产，意味着OPEC+的增产计划踩下刹 车。该消息推升油价，一度升至每桶65美元以上， 在每桶61美元附近。 11月3日消息，石油股涨幅居前，截至发稿，、涨超3%，涨超1%，涨近1%。 光大证券发布研报称，2025年三季度，受油价下跌和炼化景气度低迷影响，国际油气巨头的经营业绩同比下滑，埃克森 美孚、雪佛龙、壳牌、道达尔归母净利润分别同比-14.3%、-33.9%、-9.6%、-13.4%，中国石油、中国海油前三季度归母 净利润跌幅小于多数国际油气巨头，在油价下行期的业绩韧性凸显，"三桶油"在油价下行期的业绩体现出一定的穿越周 期属性。此外，"三桶油"继续加强增储上产，长期价值凸显。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 = | 成交量 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00883 | 中国海洋石油 | 20.440 | +0. ...

消息面上，周日，OPEC+在线上会议后表示，以沙特为首的八个成员国将在12月提高产量13.7万桶/ 日，这与10月和11月的增产幅度一致。但该组织同时宣布，考虑到季节性因素，将在明年1-3月暂停增 产，意味着OPEC+的增产计划踩下刹车。该消息推升油价，布伦特原油一度升至每桶65美元以上， WTI原油在每桶61美元附近。 智通财经APP获悉，石油股涨幅居前，截至发稿，中国石油(00857)涨3.62%，报8.31港元；中国海油 (00883)涨3.69%，报20.5港元；上海石化(00338)涨1.5%，报1.35港元；中国石化(00386)涨1.45%，报4.19 港元。 光大证券发布研报称，2025年三季度，受油价下跌和炼化景气度低迷影响，国际油气巨头的经营业绩同 比下滑，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、壳牌、道达尔归母净利润分别同比-14.3%、-33.9%、-9.6%、-13.4%， 中国石油、中国海油前三季度归母净利润跌幅小于多数国际油气巨头，在油价下行期的业绩韧性凸 显，"三桶油"在油价下行期的业绩体现出一定的穿越周期属性。此外，"三桶油"继续加强增储上产，长 期价值凸显。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Uni-President China (00220.HK) surged by 12.25% to HKD 10.08 per share, driven by positive earnings news and optimistic broker evaluations of its performance [1] Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, Uni-President China reported an unaudited net profit of CNY 602 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.8% [1][2] - The overall revenue growth for Q1 2025 was in the low double digits, with beverage revenue also growing in the low double digits and food revenue increasing in the high single digits [3] Market Dynamics - Despite a slowing macroeconomic environment and challenges in the food and beverage industry, Uni-President China demonstrated strong performance resilience [1] - The current consumer landscape favors leading brands, as consumers are more inclined to choose well-known brands with clear cost-performance advantages during cautious spending periods [1] - The accelerated industry reshuffling has led to a more pronounced Matthew effect, with smaller brands exiting the market, thereby increasing market concentration for leading companies [1] Analyst Insights - Multiple institutions expressed optimism regarding Uni-President China's future performance, with CICC noting that the company exceeded market expectations due to improved beverage gross margins and better-than-expected cost management [2] - Huatai Securities highlighted a 0.5 percentage point increase in gross margin for Q1 2025, attributed to declining raw material prices and effective management strategies [3] - Daiwa reiterated a "Buy" rating for Uni-President China, raising the target price from HKD 9.7 to HKD 10, citing rapid market share growth and strong new product performance [3]